futures research facility

• Search this site Search this site Site search
• Faculty and Staff
• Academic Offerings
• Consultations
• Publications

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies

Each of us has an essential role in the construction of whatever futures do come to pass. Humans have never before had more influence over – and ethical responsibilities towards – the futures of our environment, our biology, and indeed, of all life. Futures studies encourages the contemplation of many possible futures and facilitates dialogue between groups with competing or conflicting visions.

The  Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies  ( Hawaii Futures ) was established by the Hawaii State Legislature in 1971. It is one of the world’s most renowned institutions for futures research, consulting, and education. Located within the  Department of Political Science ,  College of Social Sciences  at the  University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa , it has been instrumental in the education of four decades of futurists, in the development and spread of judicial and educational foresight, and in bringing foresight and futures thinking to organizations, agencies, and businesses around the world.

Activities of Hawaii Futures are overseen by pioneer futurist Jim Dator , who for nearly a half-century has sculpted the very discipline of futures studies. In addition to ongoing teaching, Dator served as Secretary General and then President of the World Futures Studies Federation for a decade produced numerous publications on futures studies and emergent issues, and consulted with governmental, educational, religious, public-interest, military, and business organizations in over 40 countries.

“Man’s mind once stretched by a new idea never regains its original dimension.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes

“Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.” – Jim Dator

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” – Yogi Berra

“Future is not a noun, it’s a verb.” – Bruce Sterling

“Our greatest responsibility is to be good ancestors.” – Jonas Salk

“The world is getting better and better, and worse and worse, faster and faster.” – Tom Atlee

What is 'futures studies' and how can it help us improve our world?

A futurist explains.

.chakra .wef-1c7l3mo{-webkit-transition:all 0.15s ease-out;transition:all 0.15s ease-out;cursor:pointer;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;outline:none;color:inherit;}.chakra .wef-1c7l3mo:hover,.chakra .wef-1c7l3mo[data-hover]{-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.chakra .wef-1c7l3mo:focus,.chakra .wef-1c7l3mo[data-focus]{box-shadow:0 0 0 3px rgba(168,203,251,0.5);} Abhinav Chugh

.chakra .wef-9dduvl{margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:16px;line-height:1.388;font-size:1.25rem;}@media screen and (min-width:56.5rem){.chakra .wef-9dduvl{font-size:1.125rem;}} Explore and monitor how .chakra .wef-15eoq1r{margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:16px;line-height:1.388;font-size:1.25rem;color:#F7DB5E;}@media screen and (min-width:56.5rem){.chakra .wef-15eoq1r{font-size:1.125rem;}} Innovation is affecting economies, industries and global issues

.chakra .wef-1nk5u5d{margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:16px;line-height:1.388;color:#2846F8;font-size:1.25rem;}@media screen and (min-width:56.5rem){.chakra .wef-1nk5u5d{font-size:1.125rem;}} Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale

Stay up to date:.

Listen to the article

• Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures.
• It can be used to help leaders and communities manage uncertainties and increase their resilience and innovation.
• We spoke with futurist Dr. Stuart Candy about the latest developments in this field and how it can help us solve pressing global challenges.

Futures studies, or futures research, is the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures. The field has broadened into an exploration of alternative futures and deepened to investigate the worldviews and mythologies that underlie our collective prospects.

Governments and leaders around the world are increasingly looking to systemic foresight to manage uncertainty and build resilience. For example, the government of the United Arab Emirates has a Ministry for the Future , and the UN Secretary General recently proposed a global Summit of the Future in 2023.

Futurists collaborate with businesses, governments and other partners to explore future scenarios and help people think about –– and prepare for –– things that haven’t happened yet. Dr. Stuart Candy, USC Berggruen Fellow and Associate Professor of Design at Carnegie Mellon University, is a professional futurist and experience designer known for pioneering experiential futures , a range of practices for bringing possible scenarios to life through tangible artifacts and immersive storytelling.

As we welcome Dr. Candy into the Forum Expert Network , we discuss his motivations to explore this domain, what developments have him most excited, what he wishes people knew about his work, and how we could make the concept of the future more inclusive and accountable.

What drew you to the field of foresight and speculative design?

I happened across the foresight field, or futures studies, back in high school. It was immediately inspiring to me –– wide-ranging and imaginative, analytically insightful, ethically engaged and practically applied. However, over some years of working with foresight in government, I found that policymakers had limited capacity to envision alternative futures, and even where the field had a certain currency, its legacy methods weren’t necessarily having great impact.

So, I began re-visiting longstanding creative interests of mine that had perhaps begun to fall away during my formal education in history and law –– making things, films, theatre, games –– and asked: how might thinking about futures be made more accessible and compelling through these modes?

What began as a trickle has, over time, become more like a flood: practitioners, scholars, activists, and others around the world are now working in countless different ways on these intersections. A range of these are documented in our recent collection Design and Futures .

What global challenge does your work address?

The central challenge this work addresses could certainly be called global, but equally, it's psychological. It is an aspect of the human condition that exists at every scale of action and institution, from the personal to the planetary. That challenge is: how to engage the various possible worlds we might find ourselves in later –– not just intellectually, in the abstract, but more deeply as potential lived realities? The field traditionally has been very strong on frameworks for organizing thought, but less so on converting those anticipations into embodied insights and making them stick.

Design and futures were largely non-overlapping worlds when we started joining the dots in the mid-2000s, and a decade ago, the term "speculative design" wasn’t even in the mix. However, new framings that speak to different groups are part of the vitality of how the work has taken off, and I’m glad to help people explore futures more effectively under any banner. I have now spent well over a decade bringing futures often into new spaces, especially by growing and gardening those connections between foresight and media, arts, and design, which is intended to help acculturate –– build into our cultures –– these ways of thinking.

I would add that to my mind, designers have special duties because they create fragments of the future on behalf of everyone. Similarly, to the extent that a leader in any context has an outsized capacity to shape things, they have a commensurate responsibility to practice and enable high quality futures thinking.

What is the most critical challenge that you face as a futurist?

Perhaps the most critical challenge is the need for futures literacy in the culture. Take politics and journalism, institutions that inherently deal with the future but that do not have a well-established habit of " rigorous imagining ". Lack of futures literacy is apparent when otherwise discerning journalists demand that you provide predictions for their piece on "the future" (note the singular form) of any issue they are covering.

It is also apparent when policymakers, technologists, pundits, and other public figures issue a constant stream of authoritative-sounding forecasts, but no one checks back later to see how they fared, or asks how this diet of images of the future might be exerting influence and serving some interests more than others. Raising collective futures literacy, or "social foresight", not just across organizations but also throughout society, is an essential way for us all to navigate the predicaments that we face as a species.

What is the most exciting new development in collective foresight and why?

The greatest development right now is the rapid widening of those who initiate, run, and take part in foresight work. It’s incredibly exciting. People in various sectors, bringing diverse cultural, organizational, and disciplinary backgrounds and sensibilities, are picking up the tools to build strategic foresight and experiential futures approaches in particular, and adapting them for their own contexts and needs.

There’s more participation and interest than there has ever been, which is as thrilling as it is overdue. Organization leaders and governments, too, are taking the cue to improve their foresight approaches which is necessary in this time.

How are emerging technologies in the sphere of media (such as AR/VR) enabling this?

Playing with emerging media tools and technologies is a fun and productive aspect of opening up new ways of thinking through experiential futures. For instance, for the World Economic Forum’s own Global Technology Governance Summit this year, with my Carnegie Mellon students we designed online media –– websites and podcasts that behaved as if they were "from" decades out, each examining technology governance dilemmas and interventions that might be waiting in the wings.

Another project, for the UNESCO Futures Summit, pictured a future after the Sustainable Development Goals are achieved, via a digital showcase of world-changing organizations and initiatives in the year 2045. Here, we created a digital trade show for visitors to wander and explore at their leisure, using an online collaboration software Miro . Earlier this year, we created TikToks from the future , just as an experiment. The result was a range of wonderfully mundane, sometimes provocative or hilarious, vignettes of everyday futures, made with zero budget, and exploring food, autonomous vehicles, real estate, travel, and more.

Yet, the medium itself does not necessarily need to be cutting-edge or experimental to be effective. To support the UN Development Programme’s annual innovation gathering, mid-pandemic, my collaborators and I created physical artifacts from alternative futures for global development and sent them in the mail for people to receive at their homes, ahead of a global event that took place entirely online.

Every storytelling approach offers different ways to think and feel into what alternative scenarios might be like. Since no one can visit the future to get hard information about it, we must use whatever it takes to stoke our collective imaginative and deliberative capacities.

What is most misunderstood about your work? What do you wish people knew?

The role of a futurist is more like that of an artist or writer than an accountant or lawyer. It’s as much an art or craft as a profession, and there are as many kinds of futurists as there are ways of thinking about the future. The tradition I identify with is notable for being radically imaginative, critical, inclusive, and democratic. And to me, taking words like "future" and "futurist" back from the ways they have been abused, pre-populated or colonized with a tremendous amount of baggage is part of the project in hand.

It could also be helpful for more people to be aware that experts in the field generally don’t call it " futurism " –– that word refers more to an art movement early last century that’s unrelated.

What has been the biggest impact of mapping futures?

Building the habit of mapping futures can be life changing. For institutions or organizations, it can really shift how they operate. Likewise at an individual level –– and it’s remarkable to get to see this among my students. I think a reason it can have such impact is that it’s a way of situating the "what" and "how" of daily effort within the larger "whys" in our lives. Investing in foresight capacity helps to knit vital day-to-day work to the meaningful longer-term and bigger-picture questions, and to keep those ties alive.

I believe the biggest collective impact of all this is unfolding right before our eyes, but it’s a large story, so you must look for it on a timescale of decades or generations rather than months or years. We, as humans, are learning how to codesign our futures. This is ultimately a transformation in culture and governance.

How can we democratize futures studies and make it more accessible?

Well, I love that question. It’s central to what we have been up to. My own approach to developing and socializing experiential futures widely has been to keep several hats at the ready, sometimes wearing more than one at once. As a creative, I devise projects and interventions to make particular questions, and new horizons of thought, available for particular occasions and audiences

As an educator, I learn from these experiments to devise new frameworks, and distribute them to emerging practitioners and whoever else can use them in their own context. And as a strategic consultant, I collaborate with organizations, governments and communities on their challenges to apply what we are learning, and show how it can work, which helps address those challenges while also earning greater legitimacy and visibility on behalf of a wider futures community, growing the audience of users and learners for the underlying practices.

If you’re wondering about what a broader "we" can do, just about every organization has potential to grow their foresight capacity , and make more space to engage with alternative futures, which can help support creativity and innovation on one hand as well as risk mitigation and resilience on the other.

One project we’ve developed over some years which I think exemplifies this hybrid activity rather well, is a card deck called The Thing From The Future . It’s a tool for diversifying and deepening imagination. We’ve used it with UN agencies and the International Red Cross, as well as the BBC, NASA JPL, US Conference of Mayors, Skoll World Forum and other partners all over the world. It is a game that has the purpose of lowering the bar to using imagination with skill, and having conversations that matter, but playfully.

The future is not just something that happens to us, it is something we have the ability to shape. And part of what is interesting is, the more people and institutions tune in, participate, and act, the truer this becomes.

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Related topics:

The agenda .chakra .wef-n7bacu{margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:16px;line-height:1.388;font-weight:400;} weekly.

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

.chakra .wef-1dtnjt5{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;} More on Emerging Technologies .chakra .wef-nr1rr4{display:-webkit-inline-box;display:-webkit-inline-flex;display:-ms-inline-flexbox;display:inline-flex;white-space:normal;vertical-align:middle;text-transform:uppercase;font-size:0.75rem;border-radius:0.25rem;font-weight:700;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;line-height:1.2;-webkit-letter-spacing:1.25px;-moz-letter-spacing:1.25px;-ms-letter-spacing:1.25px;letter-spacing:1.25px;background:none;padding:0px;color:#B3B3B3;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;}@media screen and (min-width:37.5rem){.chakra .wef-nr1rr4{font-size:0.875rem;}}@media screen and (min-width:56.5rem){.chakra .wef-nr1rr4{font-size:1rem;}} See all

The cybersecurity industry has an urgent talent shortage. Here’s how to plug the gap

Michelle Meineke

April 28, 2024

Stanford just released its annual AI Index report. Here's what it reveals

April 26, 2024

Saudi Arabia and India: A bioeconomy match made in heaven?

Alok Medikepura Anil and Uwaidh Al Harethi

Future of the internet: Why we need convergence and governance for sustained growth

Thomas Beckley and Ross Genovese

April 25, 2024

Confused about AI? Here are the podcasts you need on artificial intelligence

Robin Pomeroy

How to manage AI's energy demand — today, tomorrow and in the future

Beena Ammanath

I nstitute of F utures R esearch

Institute of futures research, – advancing the philosophy of futures studies –, welcome to the institute of futures research, an organization dedicated to advancing the philosophy of futures studies and fostering a vibrant community of academics, researchers, and policymakers. our mission is to explore and develop the rich intersection of futures studies and philosophy, focusing on two distinct but related domains: the examination of futures studies as a subject of philosophical inquiry, and the incorporation of philosophical methods, concepts, and frameworks into topics within futures studies. currently, the institute of futures research is actively promoting original research, engaging in community building, and initiating outreach efforts to establish the philosophy of futures studies as an independent academic discipline. our vision for the future includes hosting a variety of events such as talks, conferences, and workshops, designed to foster collaboration and knowledge sharing among our members. we are also committed to formalizing a community registry for like-minded researchers and launching a peer-reviewed journal dedicated to the philosophy of futures studies. we warmly invite individuals and institutions interested in exploring the multidisciplinary nature of our field to join us, contribute their expertise, and collaborate in shaping the future of this exciting and important area of study., – blog –, (relevant literature) philosophy of futures studies: july 23rd, 2023 – july 29th, 2023, (relevant literature) philosophy of futures studies: july 16th, 2023 – july 22nd, 2023, (relevant literature) philosophy of futures studies: july 9th, 2023 – july 15th, 2023.

Should Artificial Intelligence be used to support clinical ethical decision-making? A systematic review of reasons Abstract“Healthcare providers have to make […]

(Review) Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk

David Thorstad engages with the philosophy of longtermism and navigates its implications for existential risk mitigation. The grounding concept of […]

(Review) A Case fo AI Wellbeing

In their recent blog post on Daily Nous, Simon Goldstein and Cameron Domenico Kirk-Giannini explore the topic of wellbeing in […]

(Review) Talking About Large Language Models

The field of philosophy has long grappled with the complexities of intelligence and understanding, seeking to frame these abstract concepts […]

– Support the Philosophy of Futures Studies –

We invite academics, researchers, and students who share a passion for understanding the future and its potential implications for society to join us in publicly voicing support for the recognition of the philosophy of futures studies as an independent, mature, and dynamic academic discipline. the philosophy of futures studies encompasses two realms: treating futures studies as a discipline subject to philosophical investigation, examining its ethical, epistemological, and methodological dimensions. incorporating philosophical concepts and methods into problems endemic to futures studies, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, and contributing to a wide range of social, technological, and environmental issues. this petition is independent of the institute of futures research (ifr) and signing it confers absolutely no obligations. by adding your name to this petition, you are expressing your belief that the philosophy of futures studies, as an independent academic discipline, can enrich academic discourse and provide valuable insights for policymakers. by supporting this petition, you are helping to: encourage universities, research institutions, and funding agencies to recognize and support the philosophy of futures studies as a distinct academic discipline. promote interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and researchers in various fields, facilitating the exchange of ideas and approaches to better understand the complexities of the future. advance the development of innovative solutions to address emerging challenges and opportunities by incorporating a robust philosophical foundation in futures research. to add your name in support of the recognition of the philosophy of futures studies as an independent academic discipline, please complete the form below. your support is invaluable in our quest to foster a thriving intellectual community dedicated to exploring the intricacies of the future. you may also consent to receive future emails from ifr, for instance, in the event a threshold level of support is reached for a philosophy of futures studies community facilitated by ifr. these emails would be sparse, and consent is not obligatory. we will validate your email address before confirming your signature..

Human-Centered Change and Innovation

Innovation, change and transformation thought leadership, lovingly curated by braden kelley, what is futures research.

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Futures research, also known as foresight, is the study of global trends and the development of plans for the future. It involves the analysis of current and emerging trends, the identification of potential threats and opportunities, and the development of strategies to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate potential threats. Futures research is an interdisciplinary field of study that takes into account social and technological trends, economic and political forces, and the influence of global events and forces.

The goal of futures research is to develop an understanding of the future and to devise a strategy to manage it. This strategy can include the development of new products, services, and business models, as well as the implementation of policies and initiatives that will shape the future of our society. Futures research is a key component of any organization’s strategic planning process, as it provides a framework for decision-making that helps to ensure the organization’s long-term success.

Futures research is typically conducted using a variety of methodologies, including scenario planning, trend analysis, and predictive modeling. Scenario planning involves the development of multiple alternative futures, each of which is based on a different set of assumptions about the future. Trend analysis is the process of identifying and analyzing trends in the present and extrapolating them into the future. Predictive modeling is the process of using mathematical models and simulations to predict future events and outcomes.

Futures research is a rapidly growing field of study with a wide range of applications. It is becoming increasingly important for organizations to remain competitive in the future and to be prepared for the changes and challenges that may come their way. By understanding the future and developing strategies to manage it, organizations can ensure their long-term success.

Image credit: Pixabay

Related posts:

• Latest Interview with the What’s Next? Podcast
• Exploring the Benefits of Using Scenario Planning in Futures Research
• The Benefits and Challenges of Using Futurology to Predict Future Trends
• What is Horizon Scanning?

2 thoughts on “ What is Futures Research? ”

Pingback: The 10 Key Components of Future Studies | Human-Centered Change and Innovation

Pingback: Six Keys to Successful Futures Research | Human-Centered Change and Innovation

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

Shaping thriving ocean futures

Advancing healthy coastal communities and marine systems through knowledge, partnerships and innovation.

The College of Global Futures proudly announces the launch of its fourth school, which advances learning, discovery and partnerships that shape a thriving global future – the School of Ocean Futures.

The School of Ocean Futures focuses on the current and future states of the ocean, while also addressing the challenges our oceans experience due to increasing pressure from human activities. It combines research and teaching facilities in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans with cutting-edge research facilities housed within the Rob and Melani Walton Center for Planetary Health on ASU’s Tempe campus. These will provide students with a wide array of experiential learning opportunities that will prepare them to conduct work of significant impact.

The School of Ocean Futures is based within ASU’s newest research and learning center, the Rob and Melani Walton Center for Planetary Health . This building is home to the College of Global Futures , as well as the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory . The Walton Center holds more than 70,000 square feet of laboratory space and countless collaborative environments to encourage transdisciplinary learning and exploration. Its landscape includes a functioning canal spur that dates to the Akimel O’Odham and the Piipaash people who cultivated this land more than 2,000 years ago.

Headquartered at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences , ASU’s Atlantic research and learning presence is rooted at an institution with more than 120 years of excellence in ocean science and research. Commonly known as BIOS, this facility houses a comprehensive campus of classrooms, laboratories, dormitories and vessels that allow scientists and scholars to venture into the surrounding Sargasso Sea, one of the world’s most diverse open-ocean ecosystems including the world’s most northern coral reefs. BIOS is home to the longest-running time-series on seawater chemistry, biology and physics (the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study ), as well as the longest record of ocean sediment-trap studies in the world, the Oceanic Flux Program .

Hawai’i

With facilities on the Big Island that are administered by the U.S. Forest Service, the Hilo location is home to ASU’s Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science and houses computational and chemical labs, offices, conference rooms and field operations space. Hawaiʻi is also home to the ASU Coral Atlas Laboratory , a network of field sites and land-based partners linking research and outreach to map the world’s coral reefs, and the Pacific RISA program (Honolulu) that supports Pacific island and coastal communities in adapting to the impacts of climate change.

With every drop of water you drink, every breath you take, you’re connected to the sea. No matter where on Earth you live.

Ocean Futures News

Stay connected with us

Sign up for our newsletter to stay up-to-date on everything happening with the ASU School of Ocean Futures, from events to course offerings.

• Planning Committee
• GC1 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
• GC2 Clean Water
• GC3 Population and Resources
• GC4 Democratization
• GC5 Global Foresight and Decisionmaking
• GC6 Global Convergence of IT
• GC7 Rich-Poor Gap
• GC8 Health Issues
• GC9 Education and Learning
• GC10 Peace and Conflict
• GC11 Status of Women
• GC12 Transnational Organized Crime
• GC13 Energy
• GC14 Science and Technology
• GC15 Global Ethics
• Various Studies
• Global Futures Intelligence System
• Future Work/Technology 2050
• State of the Future Index
• Real-Time Delphi
• Workshops & Training
• Presentations & Speeches
• Publications
• Internships

Futures Research Methodology — Version 3.0

Editors: Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

• CD-ROM: 1300 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 3.0 edition (April 30, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0981894119
• ISBN-13: 978-0981894119
• Downloadable or CD-ROM

The largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.

Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.

The electronic download- contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format.

The series begins with an introductory chapter to futures research and concludes with a synthesis of methods and speculation about the future of futures research methods. The other 37 chapters cover one specific method (e.g. Futures Wheel, Scenarios) or category of methods (e.g. Systems Perspectives, Normative Forecasting).

Each of the 37 chapters contains:

• an executive overview of each method’s history,
• description of the method
• primary and alternative usages,
• strengths and weaknesses,
• uses in combination with other methods, and
• speculation about future evolution of the method.
• Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to software, and sources for further information.

Version 3.0 has not only added new chapters, it has also updated and improved the editing of the previous chapters making this version a significant improvement on the previous one.

Electronic Edition (downloadable zip file)

Price: $49.50 US dollars

Price: $49.50 US dollars + shipping

FRM 3.0 Table of Contents

1. Introduction to Futures Research Jerome C. Glenn 2. Environmental Scanning Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn 3. Text Mining for Technology Foresight Alan L. Porter 4. Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 5. Real-Time Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 6. The Futures Wheel Jerome C. Glenn 7. The Futures Polygon Antonio Pacinelli 8. Trend Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 9. Cross-Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 10. Wild Cards John Petersen and Karlheintz Steinmueller 11. Structural Analysis Jacques Arcade, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier, Fabrice Roubelat 12. The Systems Perspectives Allenna Leonard with Stafford Beer 13. Decision Modeling The Futures Group International

14. Substitution Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 15. Statistical Modeling Antonio Pacinelli 16. Technology Sequence Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 17. Morphological Analysis Tom Ritchey 18. Relevance Trees The Futures Group International and Theodore J. Gordon 19. Scenarios Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International 20. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning Michel Godet 21. Interactive Scenarios Theodore J. Gordon 22. Robust Decisionmaking Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Steve Bankes (RAND Corporation) 23. Participatory Methods Jerome C. Glenn 24. Simulation and Games Erwin Rausch with additions from Frank Catanzaro 25. Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision Jerome C. Glenn 26. Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers and Justin Zitzewitz

27. Using Vision in Futures Clem Bezold 28. Normative Forecasting Joe Coates and Jerome C. Glenn 29. S&T Road Mapping Theodore J. Gordon 30. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Geoffrey R. Coyle 31. Agent Modeling (demo software) Theodore J. Gordon 32. Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics Theodore Gordon 33. Multiple Perspective Concept Harold Linstone 34. Heuristics Modeling Sam Cole 35. Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah 36. Personal Futures Verne Wheelwright 37. State of the Future Index Theodore J. Gordon 38. SOFI Software System Peter Yim 39. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn

Center for Futures Studies

Preparing leaders towards the next 50 years

• 800-UD cfs@ud.ac.ae
• Academic City Dubai, UAE
• Professional Courses

Futures Research

Futures Research is a survey course about the methods and tools that professional futurists use to help people understand, map, and influence the future. It is organized around the six framework activities: framing, scanning, forecasting (futuring), visioning, planning (designing), acting (adapting). In addition to exploring the basics of the framework, we explore various additional techniques and options for carrying out these activities. This is the core course for learning how to carry out a foresight project!

Participants will understand and become familiar with:

• The Framework Foresight process for exploring the future of a domain/topic
• Several methods for carrying out each of the six framework activities
• Why and how to select a particular method

Targeted Audience

Government and Private Sector Employees and Management

Prerequisite

Standards of Futures Research

Guidelines for Practice and Evaluation

• © 2022
• Lars Gerhold 0 ,
• Dirk Holtmannspötter 1 ,
• Christian Neuhaus 2 ,
• Elmar Schüll 3 ,
• Beate Schulz-Montag 4 ,
• Karlheinz Steinmüller 5 ,
• Axel Zweck 6

Research Forum on Public Safety and Security, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Düsseldorf, Germany

Futuresaffairs, büro für aufgeklärte zukunftsforschung, berlin, germany, salzburg university of applied sciences, salzburg, austria, foresightlab, berlin, germany, z_punkt gmbh, berlin, germany, innovations- und zukunftsforschung, rwth aachen university, aachen, germany.

• Quality of results and processes in futures studies
• Research perspective directed towards the future
• Guidance for scientists and practitioners

Part of the book series: Zukunft und Forschung (ZUFORSCH)

5320 Accesses

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this book

• Available as EPUB and PDF
• Read on any device
• Instant download
• Own it forever
• Compact, lightweight edition
• Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
• Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Other ways to access

Licence this eBook for your library

Institutional subscriptions

Table of contents (18 chapters)

Front matter, standards of group 1: the future as a subject of inquiry, images of the future.

Christian Neuhaus

Karlheinz Steinmüller

Validation by Argumentation

• Armin Grunwald

Aligning the Research with Ambitions for Action

• Gereon Uerz, Christian Neuhaus

Interdisciplinarity

Elmar Schüll

Transdisciplinarity

• Hans-Liudger Dienel

Standards of Group 2: Good Research Practice

Objectives and framework conditions.

• Kerstin Cuhls

Transparency

• Elmar Schüll, Lars Gerhold

Theoretical Foundations

Method selection.

Lars Gerhold

Producing Quality Research

• Roman Peperhove, Tobias Bernasconi

Scientific Relevance

• Birgit Weimert, Axel Zweck

Codes of Conduct and Scientific Integrity

• Andreas Weßner, Elmar Schüll

Standards of Group 3: Practical Relevance and Effectiveness

Practical relevance, usefulness, and effectiveness, understanding the type, role, and specificity of the research audience, transferability and communication of results.

Beate Schulz-Montag

• Futures Research
• Technology Assessment
• Futures Studies
• Quality Criteria

About this book

Editors and affiliations.

Dirk Holtmannspötter

About the editors

Dr. Christian Neuhaus, Futuresaffairs, Berlin, Germany

Beate Schulz-Montag, foresightlab, Berlin, Germany

Bibliographic Information

Book Title : Standards of Futures Research

Book Subtitle : Guidelines for Practice and Evaluation

Editors : Lars Gerhold, Dirk Holtmannspötter, Christian Neuhaus, Elmar Schüll, Beate Schulz-Montag, Karlheinz Steinmüller, Axel Zweck

Series Title : Zukunft und Forschung

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-35806-8

Publisher : Springer VS Wiesbaden

eBook Packages : Behavioral Science and Psychology , Behavioral Science and Psychology (R0)

Copyright Information : The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2022

Softcover ISBN : 978-3-658-35805-1 Published: 14 July 2022

eBook ISBN : 978-3-658-35806-8 Published: 13 July 2022

Series ISSN : 2629-8279

Series E-ISSN : 2945-7874

Edition Number : 1

Number of Pages : XVI, 158

Number of Illustrations : 1 b/w illustrations, 3 illustrations in colour

Topics : Science and Technology Studies , Sociology, general , Artificial Intelligence , Social Sciences, general

• Publish with us

Policies and ethics

• Find a journal
• Track your research

Finland Futures Research Centre

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) works with a transdisciplinary approach in an international environment. The cornerstones of our activities are on developing academic futures studies, critical interdisciplinary research, high quality education, strategic and business foresight and insightfully produced futures knowledge.

Learn more about our activities:

Collaboration

News and latest updates

You might also be interested in.

New futures studies MOOC “Getting to Know Futures Studies” is open 15.1.–30.6.2024

Call for Papers and Workshops: "Futures of Natural Resources", June 2024

Business Finland funds ECOCRIN project to reform cultural and innovation policies

Futuuri 2/2023: Special Conference Issue on Empowering Futures

What is Futures Research?

Those who know their possible futures make the better decisions..

“ Future studies , futures research or futurology , is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.” [1]

This first paragraph of the Wikipedia article outlines the term quite well for now. Futurologists thus use recognized methods in order to work specifically on research questions whose effects lie in the future. In doing so, we have also identified a first, relatively trivial-sounding yet immense challenge: The future is merely a construct and we cannot collect data about it, measure it or conduct experiments. This makes futurology an exotic science, since this is the case with most other sciences.

The future always exists only as a theoretical construct and in infinity, which is why the concept of futures plays an important role in the terminology of futurology. As soon as one of the potentially possible futures occurs, it is the present; most other futures – those that might have been anticipated in advance and all others – have become impossible in the now or remain in the waiting hall of futures.

A future is comparable to one among tens of billions of caterpillars waiting to metamorphose into the butterfly of the present.

The exploration of open futures

“Futures research is the scientific study of possible, desirable and probable future developments and design options and their prerequisites in the past and present.” [2]

I also like the definition by Rolf Kreibich, a luminary of German-speaking futurology. This approach may be more suitable for everyday use than the upper paragraph. It implies, among other things, that futurologists must naturally think about and explicitly name whether an expected future will occur, how possible or likely it is, and to what extent normative expectations or desires influence the prognoses. Other sciences do less of the latter, since the description of existing objects of research – no matter how theoretical – assumes that the researchers proceed without judgement.

In addition, the aspect of desirable future development also contains an element of futurology that is extremely important to me personally: unlike many other sciences, futurology is very often used explicitly to explore probable scenarios and make decisions in the present based on this knowledge advantage. These decisions should then enable the decisive authority, e.g. a company, to avoid mistakes in the future or to achieve a desirable scenario (e.g. more turnover, less employee dissatisfaction). Quite simply put:

Those who know their own future make the better decisions.

[1] Wikipedia contributors. Futures studies [Internet]. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia; 2020 Oct 21, 03:05 UTC [cited 2020 Nov 3]. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Futures_studies&oldid=984616663 .

[2] Kreibich, Rolf (2006): Zukunftsforschung. ArbeitsBericht Nr. 23/2006, Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung, Berlin, online: https://www.izt.de/fileadmin/publikationen/IZT_AB23.pdf, S. 3.

• Updates & press

Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that makes practical tools, stories, and resources available online to everyone, everywhere.

What we offer

We offer educational materials and data tools to empower individuals, organizations, and governments to prepare for the futures that are likely, and work to avoid the ones that carry the most profound risks for our world.

Probable Futures was founded in 2020 by a group of concerned leaders and citizens who started asking climate scientists direct, practical questions about what climate change would be like in different places around the world. Together with the Woodwell Climate Research Center, we built an online resource that makes the best available climate science actionable.

Our team is made up of individuals and organizations with best-in-class expertise in design, technology, communications, business, and science. We apply this cross-disciplinary thinking to our educational resources and data tools so that they are accessible, resonant, and useful across geographies, sectors, and industries. 

Probable Futures was inspired by the idea that, thanks to climate science, humans have information about what our planet might look like in the future and the ability to affect that outcome. The plural Futures conveys the existence of a range of future outcomes, while Probable indicates that this range should be used as a guide. Science has given us the gift of knowing, and where we go from here is up to all of us.

Open access over commercialization

Clarity over anxiety

Thoughtful reflection over moving fast and breaking things

Risk mindset over maximization mindset

Research possible futures 

And discover how to make them real. .

Our services:

1. Stakeholder Assessments 2. Shared Visions 3. Program Reviews

The future brings change

We help clients shape inevitable change through clear, creative, and intentional efforts to define the "what, why, and how" of the future.

We work with clients to focus a research process on specific aspects of the future. Data is collected individually and remotely. Qualitative techniques are used to develop actionable ideas leading to a shared vision.

What you get

Projects are conducted online and create valuable results, such as: 1) Stakeholder engagement about a shared future, 2) Development of ideas and insights, and 3) Clarity of what, why, and how to manage future change.

Our clients

We serve people who believe the future can and should be carefully considered and thoughtfully implemented.

Clients include state and local governments, non-profit organizations, for-profit businesses, colleges, universities, schools, healthcare organizations, and start-ups.

Our method builds an insider's perspective of a future socio-cultural system grounded in the words, thoughts, insights, motivations, and aspirations of those who have a stake in that system's future.

What Clients Say

Futures Research does a fantastic job of being client responsive. I am impressed how quickly interviewers grasp complex subjects and are able to get to the core both with their questions and synthesis. The results of the interviews provides data grounding not previously available. - Bill (Perkins CLNA Manager)

I liked how it was organized, how quickly it all went considering the number of people interviewed, and the process of pre-interviewing folks before their actual interviews. This project reaffirmed that many current initiatives are on the right track, and that others on our campus are passionate about the same things our leadership is. It also allowed our institution to explore other ideas that haven't been discussed or haven't been at the forefront of conversations. - Jaclyn (College Dean)

The visioning service provided by Futures Research resulted in unique and powerful insights that I would not have otherwise obtained. They are consummate professionals with a deep understanding of the methods needed to understand individual perspectives and combine those thoughts into a shared view of the future. I highly recommend this service. - Mike (Strategy Officer)

It is helpful to have a 3rd party interview partners to build the future. Futures Research does a good job. - Merilee (K12 Professional)

I appreciated that the interview was very conversational in nature. I was posed thoughtful questions as a starting point and from there the interaction felt very organic - not canned at all. It allowed me to think about the "past" and it really helped clarify for me what the future could look like. I'd never been part of a process like that before. It was insightful and very helpful. - Josh (K12 Professional)

Creative way of making you think. Put into perspective the conditions that are needed to move a community forward. Very informative hour and a half that that left you feeling hopeful about the potential for the future. - Bryan (Agency Professional)

I enjoyed the interviewer and our conversation around the questions. These are not questions/conversations that are discussed much at work, and when they are, it is often only those with the most power who get to be heard. It was nice to have these questions asked on me, to be able to share my perspective and vision about these issues and topics, and to be listened to. Participating in this project was cathartic and rejuvenating for me. It allowed me to vision and prioritize, leading to more focus in my professional life, and it reconnected me to my purpose in endeavoring in the work I am doing in the first place. - Julie (College Coordinator)

The interaction was positive and conducted in such a way it felt natural and easy. The process and participation were easy to navigate. - Kelly (Community Development Professional)

It was a fun conversation. It helped me realize that I have a part in the realization of the future reality, even if it's just my own small part - like cultivating relationships and contacts with the right people. The interview was interesting and engaging, and a good way to help have your voice heard. - Angela (Agency Professional)

Relaxed and friendly. Helped me clarify goals and direction. It makes you think. - Riva (College Dean)

Interviewer was organic in approach, created a nice "flow" for the interview process to feel collaborative and creative rather than basic answers. It created a space for me to convey my mindset and passion for students to get access and opportunities to resources and supports for their future planning. The work is difficult and complex, but through this interview I reinvigorated my focus to continue creative processing with college contacts to support students. - Scott (K12 Professional)

I particularly enjoyed the "big picture" approach to discovery. The guided visioning approach allows for a broader discussion without necessarily brining an agenda to the table. - Jeff (Rural Development Professional)

I enjoyed the process itself. The format and questions made me think - looking into the future and visioning how we could move to where we need to be was interesting. The interviewer was engaging and enjoyable to talk to. Futures Research has the ability to take you past the current, swirling issues, and into the future that you can help design and shape. - Julie (Healthcare Professional)

Vision is the narrative for change

A story about the future describes desirable future conditions, the changes required to make it happen, and an explanation of why these changes are important, achievable, and worth pursuing.

Observations Log (blog)

Custom, scalable projects

Pricing is based on project size and complexity. Choose from one of three project types

Project Types

Revisiting the Distinctions Between K12 CTE and Academic Education: Insights from Pinchak & Berns (2014).

In their 2014 paper, Pinchak & Berns delineate 20 significant differences between K12 Career and Technical Education (CTE) and traditional academic education, such as math, English, science, and social studies.

See full Blog Post content

We offer three solutions, each powered by our visioning method.

Our visioning method is embedded in all project types (i.e., solutions) because it has proven to be an effective and reliable approach to elicit and analyze people’s ideas about possible futures. This method has evolved over time. Originally modeled after an anticipatory anthropological approach called Ethnographic Futures Research, our current inquiry method uses proprietary technologies that collect and code data (captured as structured conceptual units) describing future socio-cultural conditions. Our data coding system is designed to identify “ideas about the future” that aggregate inputs from multiple stakeholders and data sources. Within a specific project, these “ideas” are used to produce outputs such as vision statements, actionable goals, strategy blueprints, tactical logic models, and assessment rubrics for measuring success in efforts to attain desired future conditions.

1. Stakeholder Assessments

A solution for a group needing to understand and respond to the interests, values, and needs of the people they seek to serve.

Application

• Contextualized insights on possible change. This solution engages the people who share a certain future describe as desirable and possible for their futures.
• Data set of insights derived from visioning stakeholder interviews (coded by meaning-making tags)
• Aggregated ideas derived from data set
• Written report
• Curated presentations
• Video of project findings (aggregated ideas)
• Data, analysis, and other outputs from Stakeholder Assessments are INPUTS for Solution 2: Shared Visions of Shared Futures.
• Feeling included, heard, respected, and appreciated
• Clarity of desired future and required attainment actions
• Contextualized understanding of stakeholder needs
• Specific insight on what they future can look like, why it’s important, and how to make it happen
• Every project is different, generally these projects involve 20 to 50 stakeholders who are each interviewed
• Timeline is affected by interviewee availability. On average, we are able to handle 4 interviews per day (20 per week)

2. Shared Visions of Shared Futures

This solution uses the outputs from Solution 1: Stakeholder Assessment, it is for a group needing to coalesce a vision informed by synthesizing stakeholder ideas and insights.

• Articulation of a group’s intention to organize and act toward the attaining of specific future conditions. This solution blends strategy and actions with context and meaning to define anticipated outcomes and map out the achievement of those outcomes.
• Logic model connecting desired stated results with stakeholder ideas and insights,
• actions (what, who, how, when), and
• anticipated measures of attainment
• Actions populated in an online task tracking tool (includes first year of annual subscription)
• Feeling connected (included) in group’s vision to
• Understanding one’s role in attaining a shared future
• Clarity and coalescence around a shared vision of a shared future
• Flexible visioning frameworks (i.e., logic model and task tracking tool) allow alignment of goals and adjustments to actions
• Accountability and measurement of efforts toward vision attainment
• This solution requires Solution 1: Stakeholder Assessment, which defines several important parameters such as number of stakeholders, depth of context, and complexity of desired future conditions
• Timeline is relatively short, usually 2 to 3 weeks depending on the completeness and cohesion of ideas developed by Solution 1: Stakeholder Assessment)

3. Forward-Looking Program Reviews

A solution for organizations that need to review ongoing efforts and align with relevant and anticipated trends and forces.

• Evaluation of past performance, current conditions, and desired future outcomes. This solution blends organizational data, external data with stakeholders’ perceptions of the future.
• Enhanced awareness among key program staff & stakeholders of analytic result of past-performance data
• Development of context affecting previous opportunities and challenges
• Exploration of current and emerging opportunities and challenges affecting mission and approach
• Articulation of a program’s desired future conditions, why those future outcomes are important, and how those outcomes will be pursued
• Helping those “in thick of it” gain perspective and a fresh outlook
• Understanding how aligned stakeholders view the program’s current and future goals
• Identification and sequencing of actions to shape program’s future outcomes
• Realignment of programmatic strategy with mission
• Optimization of program resources
• Revitalization of program’s engagement with established and new stakeholders
• This solution requires a series of meetings with key program staff & stakeholders whose availability will impact project timeline

Results from a Multi College Regional CTE Stakeholder Assessment identified five areas for Immediate Collaborative Action - see below! First, a few words about our jargon.

Futures Research was created by Matthew Mitchell with the goal of expanding access to innovative services that help groups and individuals be more intentional about their futures.

As a graduate student, Matthew began using anticipatory ethnography to investigate systemic causes and socio-cultural impacts of the "digital divide." This work led to the application of futures research to several large public- and private-funded grant programs designed to build digital inclusion through access to technology and digital literacy.

In 2004, Matthew applied a nascent version of an anticipatory ethnography method to bridge a major private foundation technology grant program into a state-wide sustainable initiative, which in turn prompted a state-funded technology grant program (called CTOP), that Matthew managed for a few years.

In 2008, responding to opportunities in industry and government, Matthew co-founded a policy research group focused on building national strategies to expand the availability and application of broadband services. Significant advances to the core visioning method were achieved through analytical innovations leveraging database and UX technologies.

In 2016, Matthew created Futures Research to focus on "mission-driven" clients. Futures Research found early success with non-profit and public-funded higher education clients. Technological innovation continues to play an important role in expanding access to the essential services of informed anticipatory research.

Central in all of this work has been an evolving research method to conduct thousands of visioning interviews with leaders of state and local governments, businesses, K12 systems, colleges and universities, non-profits, foundations, health care organizations, and other community anchor institutions.

Discover Change

Futures Research is an online, data-driven "change discovery" system. Our projects seek out the what, why, and how of change. We collect data from those who share a future to conceptualize and articulate ideas about the future. We help groups build visions of their future. We develop strategic visions for mission-driven companies, organizations, and groups. Our projects can be applied to planning, assessment, and engagement efforts of all types. For example, projects inform efforts like strategic planning, stakeholder engagement, outreach campaigns, policy formation, program review, board development, needs assessment, risk analysis, and identification of opportunity and innovation.

Data-Driven Futures

The future is too important to not be as intentional, thoughtful, and strategic as possible. This is why Futures Research exists: to help individuals and groups develop and pursue a shared vision of their shared futures.

Start your Project Today

The Future of Research Facility Design

Five years ago, Tradeline sought experts to predict the future—specifically, the future of research lab design and construction. Today, we take a look back at those predictions, and gather some new ones, looking at trends in research programs and funding, and how those trends affect the decisions institutions are making when they build and renovate their laboratory spaces.

The Race for Funding

In 2012, funding for new research facilities was “stalled.” Today, the outlook is not quite as dire, with funding for research once again on the rise. Congress increased National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by $2 billion in 2016, the first increase in a decade. Then earlier this year, they approved the 21st Century Cures Act, which provides $500 million for the Food and Drug Administration to bring novel drug therapies and medical devices to market more quickly, and $1 billion to fight the growing opioid crisis. It also further boosts the NIH research budget, with $4.8 billion in new funding, including $1.8 billion for former Vice President Joseph Biden’s “cancer moonshot,” $1.6 billion for former President Obama’s BRAIN initiative, and additional money earmarked for precision medicine.

The U.S. budget for the coming fiscal year is still up in the air, so institutions are facing uncertainty about funding levels in both the near and long terms. In Britain and across Europe, Brexit is introducing more uncertainty to the funding process, requiring new approaches. Many organizations are taking steps such as establishing public-private partnerships to bring in money, or allocating space based on an investigator’s funding level.

In addition, decision-makers are under pressure to fit more scientists into a given space. Many institutions are moving to core-services models, where individual labs get smaller spaces and share a single expensive facility or piece of equipment. Many principal investigators, accustomed to their own spaces, may find themselves in an open area with other scientists. “Allocated square footage is decreasing. They are not happy about it,” says Victor Cardona, vice president and senior lab planner at SmithGroupJJR.

As predicted in 2012, the increasing automation of lab processes is also fueling the move toward sharing. Where once sampling and analysis required scientists at benches, many such processes can now be accomplished by machines, leaving researchers to interpret results rather than conduct repetitive processes.

The nature of research itself will continue to change as processing of lab samples becomes increasingly automated. Scientists will shift their focus to decision-making, strategy, and marketing their work, and their environments may look more like high-tech offices than traditional laboratories. New players such as Google, Facebook, and Apple will be taking an increasing role in funding research, further driving the need for labs with high-tech capabilities.

Lab automation equipment has its own space needs, including making sure there’s an access path to get the machines into the building. Core labs often need to be in areas with the least possible noise and vibration, leading to situations where labs are competing for once-undesirable spaces in basements.

All this doesn’t mean lab projects have ground to a halt. Institutions and corporations are building new research space and renovating older spaces to meet today’s standards. “No matter how often we think we’ve updated everything, there always seem to be out-of-date labs,” says Jeff Murray, global practice leader at CH2M. “A lot of our clients are recognizing that their labs are both outdated and massively expensive to operate, and many are coming to us to both update their labs and reduce their lab footprint.”

Energy use is a big driver of renovation projects even in fairly recent structures, a move the Tradeline experts predicted in 2012. Combining lab and non-lab spaces is also becoming increasingly common, meaning builders and designers need to consider whether behind-the-scenes systems should also be combined.

Human Factors

Institutions that provide medical training will be under pressure to expand space for academic medical centers, even as many doctors are leaving the field. “Higher education is trying to figure out what medical training is going to be,” says Ed Burton, international science and technology director for the SmithGroupJJR architecture and engineering firm. With medical training increasingly focused on research and technology, traditional classrooms will give way to innovative spaces in both renovations and new buildings, while justifying the cost by including students in nursing and other health fields.

On the research side, as predicted in our 2012 survey, neuroscience has become a more prominent field, thanks to DNA research and the push to find treatments for Alzheimer’s disease. That research is being further supported by Obama’s BRAIN Initiative. This means institutions are looking for spaces that can be adjusted to accommodate human subjects. Neuroscience also lends itself to cross-disciplinary teamwork, as the same study may include elements of biology, chemistry, psychology, or even engineering. That again leads to more open, shared spaces.

In a broader sense, the pressure to create marketable products from research means a greater attention to the needs of humanity, as the Tradeline panel predicted five years ago. That in turn creates demand for flexible, team-centered spaces rather than individual labs. Medical and other research initiatives are heavy users of imaging, often provided as a core service to multiple labs.

Even as space for scientists is shrinking, competition for scientific talent means institutions also feel pressure to create human-oriented work areas that are up to current standards for air quality, natural light, and other aesthetic and productivity concerns. Newer office areas for science teams are often open, with collaboration spaces to encourage communication and teamwork.

According to Jeffrey Schantz, sector leader for science and technology at EYP Architecture and Engineering, collaboration will evolve into “convergence,” the term he uses to refer to scientific institutions and spaces that facilitate quickly moving new discoveries into marketable applications by integrating research and engineering teams.

Need for Flexibility

To cope with the pace of change, planners, designers, and architects are being asked to create adaptable spaces. “In the research world, the most modern labs need to be designed to accommodate a variety of disciplines, each of which has different requirements, both in lab spaces and lab support,” says Michael Reagan, vice president at Stantec, and science and technology sector lead for academic and corporate laboratories.

A common request is for modular setups that allow individual labs to be closed off for corporate projects where trade secrets are involved, then opened again to make space for cross-disciplinary teams. That requires designers and planners to think carefully about placement of lighting and HVAC elements. “It’s pretty easy to design an open lab without those considerations, but once you start adding partitions, if it hasn’t been carefully designed, it doesn’t work well,” says Reagan.

The rise of big data has increased demand for computational space and reduced demand for bench space. At some institutions, science labs are being asked to share facilities with engineering teams, both for efficiency and for cross-disciplinary innovation opportunities. “I’m seeing this really big focus on having sciences and engineering work together,” says Tim Reynolds, principal at TreanorHL. “We need engineers to help implement research initiatives. I think it’s a real positive.”

Facility Standards

Designers and builders are now using Building Information Modeling systems (BIM) as a matter of course, a transition that was still in progress during the 2012 survey.

With more data available, metrics for space allocation are changing, as well. Instead of assigning a certain amount of space per scientist, institutions are emphasizing applied science and awarding space based on funding—a formula that means frequent change. “We have to change all the metrics that we plan labs around. It’s no longer a room with two benches in it,” says Schantz.

The need for flexibility is creating room for innovative solutions. Reagan is employing a technique called an “extended plenum,” essentially keeping ductwork all the same size for the length of its run rather than doing the traditional tapering. This not only reduces labor costs at installation, but also reduces the amount of energy needed to power fans, and allows for greater flexibility to, say, add a fume hood toward the end of the run if the lab’s needs change.

Sustainability

Sustainability as a priority goes without saying in any new project, not just out of concern for the environment, but because limiting energy use is a major factor in boosting a research lab’s return on investment. “You can spend 3 percent more in capital costs and make back the entire cost of the building in energy savings over 25-30 years,” explains Schantz.

Sophisticated building controls are enabling better management of energy use—for instance, turning down heating or cooling in empty rooms, or using sensors to detect and vent harmful particles in the air. Other savings may come from implementing high-performance building envelopes or letting temperatures float by a few degrees even in occupied spaces.

Many institutions are forgoing official LEED certification because of costs, although some states require it. Some universities are certifying their buildings in response to student demands. “We’ve had a couple projects where the students insisted the building be registered,” says Mark Corey, principal of Flad Architects.

Sustainability is also pushing development of new products, and therefore a greater need for engineering facilities. The rise of electric cars and autonomous vehicles, for instance, is going to drive demand for testing facilities for auto components and vehicles.

Project processes

As more academic institutions turn to the private sector to help fund scientific work, a public-private culture clash can emerge when they try to build or renovate facilities together. Universities are often used to planning buildings with a lifespan of 75 years or more, while the private sector has a much tighter focus on up-front costs and can pressure academic partners to settle for less durable laboratory spaces.

With today’s high-speed electronic communication and Internet of Things integrations, many core services don’t even need to be located near the teams they serve. In the next generation, semi-autonomous research methods will mean “you can put the lab in Montana, next to its data center, even if the scientists are in Boston or the Bay Area. It’d be less seismically active, and you’d have access to hydro power,” suggests Burton.

The removal of geography as a barrier to collaboration will spur innovation from the intersection of technology with developing countries. For example, new medical technologies that operate via cell phones are making a difference in nations such as Kenya, where doctors are few, and the population is largely spread out across rural villages.

Even the scientists’ spaces can be, and often are, distributed across locations. “It doesn’t matter where you sit any more; it matters who you collaborate with,” says Schantz.

By Patricia Washburn

Princeton University

Princeton engineering, holographic displays offer a glimpse into an immersive future.

By Julia Schwarz

April 22, 2024

Researchers at Princeton and Meta have created a tiny optical device that makes holographic images larger and clearer. Small enough to fit on a pair of eyeglasses, the device could enable a new kind of immersive virtual reality display. Illustration by Liz Sabol, photo by Nathan Matsuda

Setting the stage for a new era of immersive displays, researchers are one step closer to mixing the real and virtual worlds in an ordinary pair of eyeglasses using high-definition 3D holographic images, according to a study led by Princeton University researchers.

Holographic images have real depth because they are three dimensional, whereas monitors merely simulate depth on a 2D screen. Because we see in three dimensions, holographic images could be integrated seamlessly into our normal view of the everyday world.

The result is a virtual and augmented reality display that has the potential to be truly immersive, the kind where you can move your head normally and never lose the holographic images from view. “To get a similar experience using a monitor, you would need to sit right in front of a cinema screen,” said Felix Heide , assistant professor of computer science and senior author on a paper published April 22 in Nature Communications.

And you wouldn’t need to wear a screen in front of your eyes to get this immersive experience. Optical elements required to create these images are tiny and could potentially fit on a regular pair of glasses. Virtual reality displays that use a monitor, as current displays do, require a full headset. And they tend to be bulky because they need to accommodate a screen and the hardware necessary to operate it.

“Holography could make virtual and augmented reality displays easily usable, wearable, and ultrathin,” said Heide. They could transform how we interact with our environments, everything from getting directions while driving, to monitoring a patient during surgery, to accessing plumbing instructions while doing a home repair.

One of the most important challenges is quality. Holographic images are created by a small chip-like device called a spatial light modulator. Until now, these modulators could only create images that are either small and clear or large and fuzzy. This tradeoff between image size and clarity results in a narrow field of view, too narrow to give the user an immersive experience. “If you look towards the corners of the display, the whole image may disappear,” said Nathan Matsuda, research scientist at Meta and co-author on the paper.

Heide, Matsuda and Ethan Tseng , doctoral student in computer science, have created a device to improve image quality and potentially solve this problem. Along with their collaborators, they built a second optical element to work in tandem with the spatial light modulator. Their device filters the light from the spatial light modulator to expand the field of view while preserving the stability and fidelity of the image. It creates a larger image with only a minimal drop in quality.

Image quality has been a core challenge preventing the practical applications of holographic displays, said Matsuda. “The research brings us one step closer to resolving this challenge,” he said.

The new optical element is like a very small custom-built piece of frosted glass, said Heide. The pattern etched into the frosted glass is the key. Designed using AI and optical techniques, the etched surface scatters light created by the spatial light modulator in a very precise way, pushing some elements of an image into frequency bands that are not easily perceived by the human eye. This improves the quality of the holographic image and expands the field of view.

Still, hurdles to making a working holographic display remain. The image quality isn’t yet perfect, said Heide, and the fabrication process for the optical elements needs to be improved. “A lot of technology has to come together to make this feasible,” said Heide. “But this research shows a path forward.”

The paper, “Neural Etendue Expander for Ultra-Wide-Angle High-Fidelity Holographic Display” was published April 22 in Nature Communications. In addition to Heide and Tseng, co-authors from Princeton include Seung-Hwan Baek and Praneeth Chakravarthula. In addition to Matsuda, co-authors from Meta Research are Grace Kuo, Andrew Maimone, Florian Schiffers, and Douglas Lanman. Qiang Fu and Wolfgang Heidrich from the Visual Computing Center at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia also contributed. The work was supported by Princeton University’s Imaging and Analysis Center and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology’s Nanofabrication Core Lab.

Related News

Retro-reflectors could help future cities keep their cool

A good way to cool a sweltering urban canyon? Put a lid on it.

Engineers use moisture to pull carbon dioxide out of the air

Climate change likely to drive more floods in some parts of the U.S., fewer in others

Princeton researchers, industry leaders drive new era of innovation in wireless and networking technologies

Transforming microbes into factories for the future

Felix Heide

Computing and Network Systems

Related department.

Computer Science

• For the Media
• Open Records
• Division of Marketing & Communications

UGA breaks ground on new medical education and research building

The groundbreaking was a "transformational moment at the University of Georgia"

The University of Georgia broke ground Friday on a new medical education and research building that will significantly expand teaching and research capabilities at the university’s future School of Medicine .

Located on UGA’s Health Sciences campus, preliminary plans for the building include medical simulation suites, standardized patient rooms, clinical skills labs, a gross anatomy lab, and a medical library. The building will also feature student support spaces like conference rooms, study spaces, lounges, and faculty and staff offices dedicated to student support.

In total, the proposed building will measure approximately 92,000 square feet. Roughly 67,000 square feet of the building will be dedicated to medical education while the remaining 25,000 square feet will house biomedical research laboratories.

Gov. Brian Kemp speaks at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Medical School Building on the Health Sciences Campus. (Andrew Davis Tucker/UGA)

The new building will complement existing facilities and provide the UGA School of Medicine with capacity to expand from 60 students per class to 120 in the future.

“Today is an exciting and transformational moment at the University of Georgia,” said UGA President Jere W. Morehead. “As a land-grant university and Georgia’s flagship research institution, the University of Georgia is uniquely positioned to address the health care needs of our state through world-class medical education, research and community outreach.”

Following the recommendation of Governor Brian Kemp, the Georgia General Assembly passed a fiscal year 2024 amended budget that includes $50 million in funding for a new University of Georgia School of Medicine facility.

President Jere W. Morehead speaks along with USG Chancellor Sonny Perdue and Gov. Brian Kemp at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Medical School Building on the Health Sciences Campus. (Andrew Davis Tucker/UGA)

The $50 million in state funding will be matched by private contributions to fund the $100 million medical education and research building.

The University System of Georgia Board of Regents authorized the University of Georgia to establish a new independent School of Medicine in Athens in February.

In March, Dr. Shelley Nuss was named founding dean of the UGA School of Medicine. She previously served as an associate professor of internal medicine and psychiatry in the Augusta University/University of Georgia Medical Partnership. In 2016, she was named campus dean of the Medical Partnership, which has been educating physicians in Athens since 2010.

“The fact is, Georgia needs more doctors, and we need them now,” said Nuss. “The new UGA School of Medicine will increase the number of medical students in the state, translating to more practicing physicians to help address Georgia’s greatest health care challenges.”

The creation of the UGA School of Medicine marks the natural evolution of the longest-serving medical partnership in the United States. Similar programs founded around the same time have already transitioned to independent medical schools.

USG Chancellor Sonny Perdue speaks from the podium along with Gov. Brian Kemp at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Medical School Building on the Health Sciences Campus. (Andrew Davis Tucker/UGA)

UGA will continue to work closely with the Medical College of Georgia to ensure a smooth transition for current medical students as UGA seeks accreditation from the Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME).

The development of a new public school of medicine at UGA promises to help address a significant shortage of medical professionals. Georgia’s growing population tops approximately 11 million residents, straining the state’s existing medical infrastructure.

Now the nation’s eighth largest state, Georgia is forecasted to experience further population growth in the coming years, and nearly one-third of the state’s physicians are nearing retirement.

“Georgia is growing,” said Sonny Perdue, chancellor of the University System of Georgia. “We may only be only eighth today, but in just a few short years Georgia could be the fifth largest state. And that means we are going to need more health care, and people are going to get it here and across the state.”

Founding Dean of the School of Medicine Shelley Nuss, middle, is surrounded by medical students at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Medical School Building. (Andrew Davis Tucker/UGA)

Georgia currently ranks No. 40 among U.S. states for the number of active patient care physicians per capita, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), while it ranks No. 41 for the number of primary care physicians and No. 44 for the number of general surgeons per capita. The shortage of medical providers is particularly acute in rural and underserved areas, where access is even more limited.

UGA faculty are already engaged in human health research, and the establishment of a school of medicine will bolster their efforts.

“Our flagship institution, the University of Georgia, is tasked with the vital mission of educating and preparing the next generation of leaders,” said Gov. Brian Kemp. “To that end, one of our top priorities is building a strong health care workforce pipeline. This UGA facility will be an essential part of those efforts.”

Alongside funding from state government, strong private support will fortify efforts to create a School of Medicine at UGA. Donors have demonstrated robust support for UGA initiatives in recent years. In fiscal year 2023, UGA raised over $240 million in gifts and pledges from alumni, friends and foundation and industry partners. The university’s three-year rolling fundraising average is now a record $235 million per year, with annual contributions exceeding $200 million for the past six consecutive years.

You may also like

UGA remembers those who passed away in last year 

Advanced Leader Program expands professional…

Volunteers uplift statewide UGA Extension outreach…

Using robotics to help sort onions on georgia farms.

Former dean establishes UGA college’s first chair

Assistant director provides access, advocacy

UCR getting ready to launch a new kind of research center

Researchers will receive stable funding and support to pursue ambitious projects

UC Riverside aims to offer researchers a chance to collaborate and pursue ambitious projects with centralized funding and administrative support through the first Campus Interdisciplinary Research Center.

Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor Elizabeth Watkins and Rodolfo Torres, vice chancellor for Research and Economic Development, announced the creation of the new center in February, inviting applications with a May 1 deadline.

Torres said the center will be unlike any other on campus in terms of its structure, scope, funding, reporting, oversight, and review. It’s long been a goal at UCR to create a center with this type of structure, which will include administrative support from the Office of Research and Economic Development, or RED, and new funding from the central campus budget.

The hope is center participants will be able to use that support to pursue more ambitious research that will gain national and international recognition and to seek multi-million funding grants, Torres said.

“It’s a way to enhance what we represent and continue to attract great faculty and students,” he said. “It will be a jewel in our crown of creativity.”

The creation of a center with this type of infrastructure builds on one of the initiatives in the campus strategic plan, UCR 2030, which Watkins led. The third strategic goal calls for expanding the visibility of UCR locally, nationally, and globally.

“The newly created CIRC will excel in interdisciplinary research and scholarly work,” Watkins said in a February announcement. “It will capitalize on the demonstrated success of existing research teams, further creating and incentivizing synergy among faculty, students, and staff across campus. The goal is to attract new individuals and additional external resources to UCR, aiming to achieve even greater national and international recognition.”

To qualify for the Campus Interdisciplinary Research Center designation, proposals must involve multiple faculty members from at least three different colleges or schools; show a record of excellence in interdisciplinary collaborations; demonstrate an external funding record, and have the potential to apply for large federal grants.

Researchers must also have a long-term sustainable plan, as the center will receive a five-year funding commitment and may be renewed for additional five-year periods.

Another important piece will be the center’s director, who is expected to have a visible role, championing the research. The new funds will cover half of the director’s salary, freeing up their ability to concentrate on administrative duties, Torres said.

Any research area will be considered, although Torres said he expects proposals to capitalize on areas where UCR is already strong.

RED will start evaluating the applications after the May 1 deadline. An announcement of the selected proposal is expected in June so that it will be funded with the new fiscal year on July 1.

Only one project will be selected as the inaugural center, but Torres said he expects additional centers will be supported as exciting new proposals are brought forward.

Watkins and Torres have been holding engagement meetings with faculty members about the proposal over the last few months and have a received a positive response, Torres said.

“People honestly think this is overdue,” he said. “They’re happy seeing it coming now. There’s a lot of excitement.”

Related Stories

Undergraduate Education to offer student success-focused courses

Future Highlanders get a taste of college life

Campus celebrates Native American Garden

What UCR is doing to reduce waste

• Samara Stories
• Intensive Parenting Program
• Intensive Children’s Program
• Therapeutic Visitation Program

Samara in Action

Healing families through nurture, education and self-discovery; a multigenerational approach

Many of our families have experienced trauma and loss. Our program enables parents to develop the personal strengths to move beyond their own hurt and effectively raise their children.

Community Partners

Innovative practices, upcoming events, samara blog, samara is dedicated to strengthening families..

We want our children to do well. We want them to find their place in the world: to use their gifts and talents, to be appreciated and loved by others, to form strong connections and to create a life that has meaning and purpose. If our own childhood was difficult, it may seem impossible to guide our children toward a path where they feel safe, loved, and able to pursue their dreams. At Samara we learn to know families, both parents and children, who have not had the opportunities that they deserve. With support, encouragement, knowledge and hope, they often find themselves able to create a brighter path for themselves and their children.

As a society it makes sense to invest in families whose success is intertwined with the success of our communities. Our investment in their future enriches all of us. Samara's programs are designed for families who are suffering the effects of intergenerational child trauma and loss. Samara has designed and implemented a unique program, supported by the latest research on child trauma and the brain. We consider how the brain develops differently for children who have endured dangerous and violent family environments, and how those children, as adults, function in their role as parents. Our program enables parents to develop the personal strengths to move beyond their own hurt and effectively raise their children.

"Feelings of worth can flourish only in an atmosphere where individual differences are appreciated, mistakes are tolerated, communication is open, and rules are flexible - the kind of atmosphere that is found in a nurturing family."

• International edition
• Australia edition
• Europe edition

Oxford shuts down institute run by Elon Musk-backed philosopher

Nick Bostrom’s Future of Humanity Institute closed this week in what Swedish-born philosopher says was ‘death by bureaucracy’

Oxford University this week shut down an academic institute run by one of Elon Musk’s favorite philosophers. The Future of Humanity Institute, dedicated to the long-termism movement and other Silicon Valley-endorsed ideas such as effective altruism, closed this week after 19 years of operation. Musk had donated £1m to the FHI in 2015 through a sister organization to research the threat of artificial intelligence. He had also boosted the ideas of its leader for nearly a decade on X, formerly Twitter.

The center was run by Nick Bostrom, a Swedish-born philosopher whose writings about the long-term threat of AI replacing humanity turned him into a celebrity figure among the tech elite and routinely landed him on lists of top global thinkers. Sam Altman of OpenAI, Bill Gates of Microsoft and Musk all wrote blurbs for his 2014 bestselling book Superintelligence.

“Worth reading Superintelligence by Bostrom. We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes,” Musk tweeted in 2014.

Bostrom resigned from Oxford following the institute’s closure, he said.

The closure of Bostrom’s center is a further blow to the effective altruism and long-termism movements that the philosopher had spent decades championing, and which in recent years have become mired in scandals related to racism, sexual harassment and financial fraud . Bostrom himself issued an apology last year after a decades-old email surfaced in which he claimed “Blacks are more stupid than whites” and used the N-word.

Bostrom – who popularized the theory that humanity may be living in a simulation, one that Musk often repeats – spoke about the closure of the institute in a lengthy final report published on its website this week. He praised the work of the center, while also saying that it faced “administrative headwinds” from Oxford and its philosophy department.

“The closure is the culmination of process that’s been playing out over several years,” Bostrom said via email. “We were funded initially for three years, back in 2005, and then that got extended a number of times.

“Eventually a pressure to conform began bearing down (we were administratively housed within the faculty of philosophy, even though the majority of our research team by this time were non-philosophers), and there was a death by bureaucracy.”

Bostrom added that he was touched by the number of people speaking out in support of the institute’s work, and that it had been a privilege to work with his colleagues.

“FHI was a special place with a unique and highly fruitful intellectual culture,” Bostrom said. “I think we had a good run!”

A statement on the Future of Humanity’s website claimed that Oxford had frozen fundraising and hiring in 2020, and that in late 2023 the faculty of philosophy decided to not renew the contracts of remaining staff at the institute.

An Oxford University spokesman said: “We regularly consider the best structures for conducting our academic research, as part of the university’s governance processes. After such consideration, the decision was made to close the Future of Humanity Institute. The university recognises the Institute’s important contribution to this emerging field, which researchers elsewhere across the university are likely to continue.”

Effective altruism, the utilitarian belief that people should focus their lives and resources on maximizing the amount of global good they can do, has become a heavily promoted philosophy in recent years. The philosophers at the center of it, such as Oxford professor William MacAskill, also became the subject of immense amounts of news coverage and glossy magazine profiles. One of the movement’s biggest backers was Sam Bankman-Fried , the now-disgraced former billionaire who founded the FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

Bostrom is a proponent of the related long-termism movement, which held that humanity should concern itself mostly with long-term existential threats to its existence such as AI and space travel. Critics of long-termism tend to argue that the movement applies an extreme calculus to the world that disregards tangible current problems, such as climate change and poverty, and veers into authoritarian ideas. In one paper, Bostrom proposed the concept of a universally worn “freedom tag” that would constantly surveil individuals using AI and relate any suspicious activity to a police force that could arrest them for threatening humanity.

Bostrom and long-termism gained numerous powerful supporters over the years, including Musk and other tech billionaires. Bostrom’s Institute received £13.3m in 2018 from the Open Philanthropy Project, a non-profit financially backed by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz.

The past few years have been tumultuous for effective altruism, however, as Bankman-Fried’s multibillion-dollar fraud marred the movement and spurred accusations that its leaders ignored warnings about his conduct. Concerns over effective altruism being used to whitewash the reputation of Bankman-Fried, and questions over what good effective altruist organizations are actually doing, proliferated in the years since his downfall.

Meanwhile, Bostrom’s email from the 1990s resurfaced last year and resulted in him issuing a statement repudiating his racist remarks and clarifying his views on subjects such as eugenics. Some of his answers – “Do I support eugenics? No, not as the term is commonly understood” – led to further criticism from fellow academics that he was being evasive.

The university launched an investigation into Bostrom’s conduct following the discovery of his racist email, while other major effective altruism groups distanced themselves from him.

“We unequivocally condemn Nick Bostrom’s recklessly flawed and reprehensible words,” the Centre for Effective Altruism, which was founded by fellow Oxford philosophers and financially backed by Bankman-Fried, said in a statement at the time.

• University of Oxford

Most viewed

Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

Read our research on:

Full Topic List

Regions & Countries

• Publications
• Our Methods
• Short Reads
• Tools & Resources

Read Our Research On:

Americans take a dim view of the nation’s future, look more positively at the past

Americans are in a negative mood about the current state of the country, with large majorities expressing dissatisfaction with the economy and overall national conditions. And when they look toward the not-too-distant future, they see a country that in many respects will be worse than it is today, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

Pew Research Center conducted this study to learn about Americans’ views of the country’s past and future. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,079 U.S. adults from March 27 to April 2, 2023. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology .

Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology .

Sizable majorities of U.S. adults say that in 2050 – just over 25 years away – the U.S. economy will be weaker, the United States will be less important in the world, political divisions will be wider and there will be a larger gap between the rich and the poor. Far fewer adults predict positive developments in each of these areas.

And when Americans reflect on the country’s past , the present looks worse by comparison. Around six-in-ten (58%) say that life for people like them is worse today than it was 50 years ago, according to the survey, which was conducted from March 27 to April 2.

Despite these negative attitudes, a majority of Americans say they generally have at least some confidence in the future of the U.S. But far fewer have quite a lot of confidence, and the share of Americans who express confidence in the country’s future has declined over the past year.

Views of specific problems have also become more negative over the past five years. For each of the four items included in the new survey, Americans today are about 10 percentage points more likely to offer a negative prediction than they were when asked to think about the year 2050 in a separate survey conducted by the Center in 2018. For example, 77% of Americans now expect the nation to be more politically divided in 2050 – up from 65% who made that prediction five years ago.

While majorities in both parties make negative predictions for the country’s future across all four items in the survey, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are somewhat more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to have pessimistic views. In 2018, midway through Donald Trump’s term as president, Democrats’ predictions were more negative than Republicans’ on three of the four areas.

White adults are particularly likely to foresee a diminished U.S. in 2050. For example, 69% of White adults anticipate a weaker U.S. economy in 2050, compared with smaller shares of Hispanic (60%), Black (58%) and Asian (55%) adults. There are only modest age differences on each of the four items.

Americans’ negative views of the nation’s future are influenced by their bleak assessments of current conditions . Only 19% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, while 80% are dissatisfied. Ratings of the economy remain largely negative, and an increasing share of the public expects economic conditions to worsen over the next year.

Compared with a year ago, less confidence in the future of the U.S.

When it comes to general views of the country’s future, six-in-ten U.S. adults currently say they have at least some confidence in the future of the United States, including 12% who have quite a lot of confidence. A third express very little confidence in the country’s future, while just 6% say they have no confidence at all.

Confidence in the future of the country has declined over the past year. In May 2022, 68% said they had at least some confidence in the country’s future, 8 points higher than the share who say this today. The share expressing at least some confidence in the future of the U.S. changed only modestly between August 2020 and May 2022.

As has been the case throughout Joe Biden’s presidency, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to express confidence in the country’s future. About two-thirds of Democrats (66%) have at least some confidence, compared with 56% of Republicans. In 2020, when Trump was president, larger shares of Republicans than Democrats expressed some or quite a lot of confidence in the country’s future.

Both Democrats and Republicans are less likely to express at least some confidence in the country’s future than they were a year ago. The share of Democrats saying this has dropped 8 percentage points, while the share of Republicans has dropped 6 points over this period. Overall, Democrats’ confidence in the future of the country has dropped 18 points since the early months of the Biden administration (84% of Democrats said they had at least some confidence in April 2021).

Older adults are more likely than younger adults to express a great deal of or some confidence in the future of the country. Two-thirds of those ages 50 and older have confidence in the future of the U.S., compared with a smaller majority of those 35 to 49 (56%) and 53% of those 18 to 34.

Differences between older and younger Democrats account for most of this age gap. A sizable majority of Democrats 50 and older (80%) have at least some confidence in the country’s future. That compares with 62% of Democrats ages 35 to 49 and 53% of those 18 to 34.

Among Republicans, by contrast, there are only modest differences on this question across age groups.

In both parties, adults with more formal education and those living in higher-income households are more likely to express a great deal of confidence or some confidence in the country’s future than those with less education and those in lower-income households.

College graduates are more likely than those without a college degree to say they have at least some confidence in the country’s future (69% vs. 56%). And three-quarters of adults living in upper-income households say this, compared with 60% of those in middle-income households and 53% of adults in lower-income households.

Americans’ views of life today versus 50 years ago

In contrast with their negative predictions for the country’s future, large shares of adults view the past in a more positive light than the present day. Around six-in-ten (58%) say that life in America is worse today than it was 50 years ago for people like them. Only about a quarter (23%) say life today is better, while 19% say it is about the same.

The share of Americans who say life today is worse than in the past is up 15 percentage points since the summer of 2021. The share who say life is better has decreased by a similar margin.

Republicans and Democrats alike are now more likely than in 2021 to say that life is worse for people like them, though this view continues to be more prevalent among Republicans than Democrats. Roughly seven-in-ten Republicans (72%) say that life is worse today, up from 59% who said this in 2021. Among Democrats, 43% now say this, up from 30% two years ago.

White adults are far more likely to say life today is worse for people like them than to say it is better (63% vs. 20%), as are Hispanic adults (53% vs. 26%). Attitudes are more divided among Asian adults (48% worse, 38% better) and Black adults (41% worse, 33% better).

While both older adults and younger adults are much more likely to say that life today is worse for people like them than to say life is better, there is a sizable age gap on this question. Adults 50 and older are 46 points more likely to say that life is worse today for people like them than they are to say that life is better (65% vs. 19%). Adults ages 18 to 49, by comparison, are 24 points more likely to say life today is worse (51% vs. 27%).

Note: Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology .

• Economy & Work
• International Affairs
• National Conditions
• Partisanship & Issues
• Political Issues

Andrew Daniller is a research associate focusing on politics at Pew Research Center

A look at small businesses in the U.S.

7 facts about americans and taxes, key facts about asian americans living in poverty, methodology: 2023 focus groups of asian americans, 1 in 10: redefining the asian american dream (short film), most popular.

1615 L St. NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20036 USA (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax (+1) 202-419-4372 |  Media Inquiries

Research Topics

• Age & Generations
• Coronavirus (COVID-19)
• Family & Relationships
• Gender & LGBTQ
• Immigration & Migration
• Internet & Technology
• Methodological Research
• News Habits & Media
• Non-U.S. Governments
• Other Topics
• Politics & Policy
• Race & Ethnicity
• Email Newsletters

ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER  Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of  The Pew Charitable Trusts .

Copyright 2024 Pew Research Center

Terms & Conditions

Privacy Policy

Cookie Settings

Reprints, Permissions & Use Policy