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National Integrated Drought Information System

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Priority Actions & Research Needs

Assessing drought in a changing climate.

In a changing climate, the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts may change. This poses new challenges for drought assessment. Current methods for assessing drought conditions do not consistently and deliberately consider drought in the context of climate change, thereby unintentionally promoting drought response strategies that are limited in building long-term resilience in a changing climate. 

On February 28–March 1, 2023, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the USDA Climate Hubs co-hosted a  Technical Workshop on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate . During the meeting, more than 100 subject matter experts identified priority actions and outstanding research questions aimed to address this issue. 

The outcomes of the meeting directly informed the development of a NOAA Technical Memorandum,  Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Priority Actions and Research Needs , which highlights priority actions and research questions to improve drought assessment across fifteen focus areas . 

In August 2024, NIDIS announced the Coping with Drought: Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate competition , which targets a key focus area identified in the Technical Memorandum: Improving Drought Indicator Performance. This competition will provide up to $4 million in funding for 8 two-year projects focused on improving drought indicator performance to account for  non-stationarity with the goal of more accurate drought assessments that support communities in preparing for, mitigating, and responding to drought. 

Read the Report

Drought assessment in a changing climate: priority actions and research needs.

On November 29, 2023, NIDIS and the USDA Climate Hubs released a NOAA Technical Memorandum, which highlights priority actions and research questions across fifteen research focus areas to advance the knowledge and understanding of drought assessment into the future. This report captures the ideas and feedback of more than 100 subject matter experts from over 44 institutions across the drought research and practitioner communities. It offers a rich collection of ideas for action and further research that federal, tribal, state, and local agencies and academic institutions can support. 

Executive Summary

The report captures the ideas and feedback of more than 100 subject matter experts from over 44 institutions across the drought research and practitioner communities. Read the executive summary.

Literature Review

This literature review, Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate:  A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices ,   examined any studies that recommended a specific period of reference for drought assessment in a changing climate. 

Focus Areas for Improving Drought Assessments

The Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate report summarizes priority actions and research questions that the research and practitioner community identified to improve drought assessment. The intent is not to provide authoritative guidance or design specifications for specific research or programmatic endeavors, but to illuminate current and future needs to best account for a changing climate in our drought assessment practices. These research questions and priority actions are broken down into fifteen cross-cutting research focus areas. 

View a short summary of each focus area, as well as select research initiatives working to address the gaps identified in the report.  If you’re interested in a particular focus area, read the full report for a more comprehensive description with a diverse set of actions and research questions for each focus area.

Is your research supporting one or more of these focus areas? Please contact Britt Parker ( [email protected] ) to tell us about it!

• Learning with Indigenous Communities

Future research should embrace multidisciplinary approaches, incorporating indigenous research methods, embracing different worldviews, and hybrid knowledge frameworks to co-create new knowledge, while also considering data sovereignty and reciprocity.

Download this section of the report for more information, including research questions and priority actions.

Featured Research Profiles

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports learning with indigenous communities.

Other Featured Work

• Workshop for Building Drought Resilience in a Changing Climate with Upper Columbia and Missouri Basin Tribes : In October 2023, NIDIS and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes co-hosted this workshop, which provided a forum for Tribal Nations and Tribal Colleges and Universities in the region to share successes, challenges, opportunities, and ideas for managing current and future drought in the context of a changing climate.
• Benchmarking Our Understanding and Assessment of Drought in a Changing Climate

Building accurate and useful drought assessments could greatly benefit from a National Academies or similar study on our current understanding of drought and climate change, as a foundation for future research. Knowledge exchange across hazards, sectors,  and with the global drought community could accelerate learning in how to address non-stationarity across multiple hazards.

• Ensuring Equity in Drought Monitoring and Assessment

There is a need to address gaps—both spatial and temporal—in environmental observation and impact monitoring that may increase discrepancies between the experiences of drought and our assessment of drought. This should also address disparities in access to assistance and resources.

• Overview of Weather Water Land Sites (OWWLS) :  USDA Climate Hubs partnered with the National Drought Mitigation Center to help visualize gaps in monitoring and observation networks.
• Evaluating Data Relevance, Fidelity, Integration, Metadata, and New Technologies

Where past droughts may not be analogous to future drought, drought indicators should be consistently evaluated for quality and relevance when characterizing drought in a changing climate. This should include exploring emerging data science capabilities and how they can be used to improve drought assessment.

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports evaluating data relevance, fidelity, integration, metadata, and new technologies.

• Determining the Physical Drivers of Drought and How They Are Changing

Weather and climate models must be modernized through continued efforts to better represent land surface processes (e.g., evapotranspiration) and ensure accurate representation of global-scale drivers of drought—even given uncertainty in how these might change in a warming world.

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing.

• Understanding Drivers of Aridification and Their Interactions with Drought

A unified framework is needed to define, identify, and quantify the drought-to-aridification continuum.  This will help delineate the differences between droughts—episodic events that may last multiple months, seasons, years, decades, centuries— and a permanent change toward a drier climate (aridification). 

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports understanding the drivers of aridification and their interactions with drought.

Addressing Regional Differences in Non-Stationarity

Climate change manifests differently across space and time and affects regions in unequal ways, and drought assessment should address regional differences. This includes identifying indicators and periods of reference that perform best for the region based on the goal of the assessment. This also recognizes that differences in economic sectors, cultural practices, ecosystems, and habitats create different experiences of drought impacts that need to be accounted for in assessments.

• Drought Risk Atlas : This tool from the National Drought Mitigation Center allows users to explore historical trends and period of record by location. 
• Improving Drought Indicator Performance

Drought assessment in a changing climate requires accounting for non-stationarity in drought indicators. In addition, challenges that impact indicator performance must be addressed, including changes in extreme events, snowpack and melt; processes like evapotranspiration and primary productivity due to climate change; as well as work to better understand drought recovery.  

In August 2024, NIDIS announced up to $4 million in funding for 8 two-year projects as part of the  Fiscal Year 2025 NIDIS Coping with Drought: Understanding and Assessing Drought in a Changing Climate competition, which seeks projects to advance this focus area, "Improving Drought Indicator Performance." Projects will focus on   improving drought indicator performance to account for non-stationarity. 

Explore other select NIDIS and partner research that supports improving drought indicator performance:

• Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021
• Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
• Using Precipitation Effectiveness More Broadly to Capture Rainfall Variability

Current precipitation-based metrics may show drought improvement when, in reality, precipitation has fallen too quickly and has run off instead of infiltrating the soil. Precipitation metrics that can more accurately portray drought conditions are needed as precipitation variability (e.g., extreme events) increases and patterns (e.g., seasonality) change.

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports improving drought indicator performance.

• Update to the National Precipitation Frequency Standard : The NOAA Office of Water Prediction is updating the NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency standard while accounting for climate change and is developing precipitation frequency estimates for the entire U.S. and its territories.
• Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy : NOAA's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Initiative aims to provide more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts across timescales. I mprovements in precipitation forecasting can inform metrics.
• Quantifying Water Demand in a Changing Climate

Drought assessments are complicated by shifts, or potential shifts, in water demand from physical processes (e.g., evapotranspiration) and human water use. Improved understanding and monitoring of changes in water availability and shifts in demand across sectors would provide better insight for future water management. 

• Evaluating Drought Impacts and How They Are Changing

Climate change not only shifts the physical nature of a drought, but also the ways drought impacts sectors and communities. Climate change may also increase the urgency people have in responding to or adapting to drought. Understanding how human behavior can mitigate or exacerbate how impacts are felt and linking this to drought indicators can inform thresholds for planning and response. 

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports evaluating drought impacts and how they are changing.

• Assessing Drought in Terms of Risk

Assessing drought risk not only considers the probability or likelihood of an event, but also the harmful impacts of the event to specific individuals, communities, and systems. Drought assessment should acknowledge and account for non-stationarity in both the biophysical and human contexts, identify and quantify the cost of drought across social-ecological systems, and link this information to resource management decisions. 

Assessing Policy through the Lens of Non-Stationarity

The way that drought is assessed and how drought metrics incorporate non-stationarity has policy implications. Policy research needs to examine these implications and how science can inform future policies and programs.

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports assessing policy through the lens of non-stationarity.

• Strengthening Planning, Management, and Adaptation

Ultimately, decision-makers need access to appropriate information to inform proactive decision-making based on the best available knowledge and information. The need to link improvements in drought assessment to planning and decision making becomes more relevant, and urgent, given the complexity that non-stationarity brings to this challenge. 

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports strengthening planning, management, and adaptation.

• Improving Communication and Collaborative Knowledge Exchange

Non-stationarity adds to the complexity of communication challenges and necessitates an increased focus on knowledge exchange. This includes communicating confidence and/or uncertainty in drought assessments in a way that informs decision-making. 

Explore select NIDIS and partner research that supports improving communication and collaborative knowledge exchange.

Web Resources

Explore the report: drought assessment in a changing climate.

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Priority Actions and Research Needs (Full Report)

State of the Science

Focus Areas for Future Investment:

• Addressing Regional Differences in Non-stationarity
• Assessing Policy through the Lens of Non-stationarity

Drought.gov News Story: New Report on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Workshop Materials

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate Technical Workshop : View the agenda and desired outcomes for the workshop, which was held on February 28–March 1, 2023.

Presentation Recordings: Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate Pre-Workshop Webinar : View video recordings of presentations from the pre-workshop webinar, which was held on February 10, 2023.

Other Climate & Drought Resources

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices Literature Review in the Journal of Applied and Service Climatology

Fifth National Climate Assessment U.S. Global Change Research Program

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit NOAA's Climate Program Office, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) U.S. Global Change Research Program

2022 State Climate Summaries NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information

Research Spotlight: Climate-Driven Megadrought NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System

Climate Toolbox: Climate Mapper University of California – Merced

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.102019
• Corpus ID: 230597243

New approach for drought assessment: A case study in the northern region of Minas Gerais

• L. Costa , Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha , +1 author Christopher Cunningham
• Published 16 December 2020
• Environmental Science, Agricultural and Food Sciences
• International journal of disaster risk reduction

9 Citations

Drought early warning in agri-food systems, multi-datasets to monitor and assess meteorological and hydrological droughts in a typical basin of the brazilian semiarid region., spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural and meteorological droughts using spi and modis-based estimates over a brazilian semiarid region: study case of upper paraíba river basin, analysis of the impact of expressway construction on soil moisture in road areas, annual rainfall in pernambuco, brazil: regionalities, regimes, and time trends, quantitative evaluation of the trade-off growth strategies of maize leaves under different drought severities, evaluation of three gridded precipitation products to quantify water inputs over complex mountainous terrain of western china, random forest-based analysis of land cover/land use lclu dynamics associated with meteorological droughts in the desert ecosystem of pakistan, transforming wastewater treatment plants in sustainable units coupled with local economies: microalgae as resource recovery agents, 47 references, monitoring vegetative drought dynamics in the brazilian semiarid region, frequency, duration and severity of drought in the semiarid northeast brazil region, increase risk of drought in the semiarid lands of northeast brazil due to regional warming above 4 °c, extreme drought events over brazil from 2011 to 2019, desertification trends in the northeast of brazil over the period 2000-2016, spatiotemporal variability of vegetation due to drought dynamics (2012–2017): a case study of the upper paraíba river basin, brazil, drought in northeast brazil—past, present, and future, use of remote sensing indicators to assess effects of drought and human-induced land degradation on ecosystem health in northeastern brazil, benchmark maps of 33 years of secondary forest age for brazil, vegetation supply water index based on modis data analysis of the in yunnan in spring of 2012, related papers.

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• Published: 20 August 2024

Disparity between global drought hazard and awareness

• Dar Murtaza Ahmad 1 &
• Jonghun Kam   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7967-7705 1  

npj Clean Water volume  7 , Article number:  75 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Psychology and behaviour
• Water resources

Drought is a pervasive natural hazard, which can profoundly affect ecosystems and societies globally. To strengthen the global community’s resilience to droughts, a multi-dimensional understanding of global drought awareness is imperative. Here we investigate global drought awareness at local (awareness of local droughts in the affected country), remote (awareness of remote droughts in other countries), and global levels (awareness from non-exposed countries). This study uses relevant search activity volumes of a country to drought as a proxy of national-level drought awareness. We find that the recent decade has experienced no change in drought hazard over the globe, but the global community has been increasingly seeking information about drought online, that is, elevated awareness of the global community on drought. We further find that long-lasting droughts enhance local- and global-level awareness and high gross domestic product are associated with remote-level awareness. This study provides an observational evidence of global disparities in the awareness/interest regarding drought, underscoring a continuing role of European nations in enhancing global drought awareness.

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Introduction.

Drought is one of the costliest natural disasters 1 and exists on a range of spatiotemporal scales 2 , 3 , 4 . As a drought gets more severe and persists longer, their adverse effects are catastrophic 5 , 6 . Droughts have long been a concern for policymakers, researchers, and communities, given their capacity to disrupt livelihoods, induce food insecurity, and trigger environmental degradation 7 . Over 1951–2010, droughts have occurred in different regions of the world 6 , 8 , 9 , encompassing Africa 10 , 11 , East Asia 5 , Central America 12 , South America 13 , and the Mediterranean 14 . The consequences of a drought can differ across countries, depending on the implementation of preparation and response policies and strategies 15 . A simple drought index from observations and models revealed a significant increasing trend of meteorological droughts globally 9 , 16 , 17 . However, a complex drought index based on the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation considers the underlying physical principles including not only changes in temperature but also changes in other meteorological conditions, such as available energy, humidity, and wind speed. The PM-based drought index showed a little change in drought frequencies over the globe since 1950 16 . With uncertainty in drought hazard estimation, state-of-the-art climate forecast models still showed a limited prediction skill of seasonal and multi-year droughts 17 .

Drought is a creeping phenomenon 18 . The onset of a drought is typically slow and is difficult for the public to be aware of its occurrence until it causes adverse impacts on natural habitats and society 15 . Droughts can trigger a social response beyond the affected areas by seeking and sharing information about the ongoing drought via search engine portals and social networks 19 , 20 . While the limited skill of drought forecasts makes it difficult to provide actionable information for proactive drought mitigation plans 21 , the connected global community via internet can improve their drought awareness in a timely manner through seeking and sharing relevant information about the ongoing drought 22 . The enhanced drought awareness can help raise the funds and supports from non-exposed communities over the globe, and eventually improve the resilience of the global community to drought. For effective international drought response and recovery plans, understanding of the dynamics of global drought awareness should be in multiple spatial dimensions (herein, local-, remote-, and global-level awareness), but remains limited.

Social monitoring data has been popular in recent years as a means of improving the awareness level of natural disasters and understanding possible causes of changes in social responses to natural disasters, such as floods, drought, and earthquake 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 . Social monitoring data is categorized into active and passive sources 18 . In the initial stages of an emerging natural disaster, active social monitoring services, such as Twitter/X and Facebook, are commonly employed for rapid risk communication; however, they can potentially capture inaccurate or misleading information via the social network 7 , 26 . In contrast, passive social monitoring systems offer observational data that can provide a more precise representation of the awareness patterns among individuals acting independently during a disaster emergency. These social monitoring data provide multidisciplinary research opportunities to assess the impact of droughts on regional and global communities, which can advance our understanding of the global challenge for water security and sustainable development in the coupled natural-social systems 27 .

Here we offer a multi-dimension perspective on global drought hazard and awareness across nations and continents. For drought hazard analysis, we focus on 70 countries with sufficient relevant online search activity volumes for drought awareness assessment and 63 countries with greater than 0.5 mm/day of the annual average precipitation on the 30-year average for drought hazard analysis (see Methods ). We assess drought hazard based on the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12), which is widely recognized as an agricultural drought index (see Methods ). For drought awareness analysis, we use the Google Trends data to monitor the public awareness 22 (search volume) of the global community on drought. Here, we introduce multiple spatial dimensions to assess changes in social response to drought in a comprehensive manner: local-, remote-, and global-level awareness. Local-level awareness (LA) is related to the online seeking activity volumes (herein, the awareness/interest level) of an exposed nation to a drought. Remote-level awareness (RA) is measured by the online seeking activity volumes of a country of interest relevant to droughts in other countries with no occurrence of local droughts. Global-level awareness (GA) is defined as the online seeking activities of global community, excluding the exposed nation to a local drought. The ratio of RA to LA (RA/LA) is computed to compare relevant search activity volumes to remote droughts with those to local droughts. The ratios of GA to LA (GA/LA) and RA/LA are also calculated to compare the level of the global community’s interest in a drought with that of the public’s interest of the affected nation. We conduct a multi-dimensional analysis of global drought awareness by categorizing the local-, remote-, and global-level awareness on drought (see Methods). This multi-dimensional analysis of global drought awareness will unveil the dynamics of drought-related online search activities of the global community by answering the following questions: (a) how does the spatiotemporal variability of drought events correlate with changes in drought awareness of the global community? and (b) what are potential factors that influence the local-, remote-, and global-level awareness of the global community on drought? By amalgamating scientific insights with observational and passive monitoring of drought, this study will envision a more comprehensive and proactive approach to addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by drought.

Global drought hazard in the recent decade

Since 2010, moderate (D1) and exceptional (D4) droughts have affected about 20% (less than 5%) of the 70 nations (Fig. 1 ). Over the globe, the areal extent of droughts has fluctuated in two to three-year intervals. In mid and late 2010s, a majority of the 70 nations have experienced at least moderate droughts.

a Areal fraction under drought conditions of the 63 countries. b Drought Intensity from 2010 through 2021 over 63 countries globally. c Drought duration in months from 2010 to 2021 over 63 countries globally. D1, D2, D3, and D4 are the drought categories having SPI12 ≤ −0.5, −1, −1.5, and −2 respectively.

This study compared the characteristics of recent droughts (2010–2021) with those of historical droughts (1901–2009) to assess the changes in drought hazard at the continental level (Fig. 2 and Supplementary Fig. 1 ). The long-lasting drought persistence is observed across North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. In Asia, a subtle alteration in the duration of drought events is attributed to the long-lasting Kazakhstan drought condition in the recent decade. Two severe droughts with a longer duration are observed in Africa since 2010. This result underscores a possible temporal shift to a long drought duration of moderate and severe droughts in Africa.

The blue shade represents the Intensity vs Duration data from 1901 through 2009, and the red dots represent the Intensity vs Duration data from 2010 through 2021.

Over 2010–2021, 32 nations experienced extreme drought conditions (−2 of SPI12 or below). Brazil, Chile, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Turkey, and Israel reported an alarming drought intensity at −3 of SPI12 or below. In contrast, seven nations, Canada, Kenya, Norway, Puerto Rico, Russia, the Philippines, and the United States, exhibited moderate drought conditions (−1 of SPI12 or above). Russia exhibited an absence of meteorological drought conditions from 2010 to 2021, yielding no drought occurrence during our study period.

Chile and Kazakhstan endured long-lasting drought conditions in the last decade. Chile demonstrated a comparable drought intensity to those in Iran and Brazil, but Kazakhstan exhibited comparatively lower intensity. Furthermore, China manifested the drought intensity with a relatively short duration, indicating a possible change in the drought characteristics, such as flash droughts with a rapid onset 28 . South Africa endured a long-lasting drought period, but with a low level of drought intensity. It is worth noting that we conducted the national-level drought hazard based on the national average precipitation-based drought index, which might be improper for a regional-scale drought hazard assessment, such as the western U.S. and South Africa’s Cape Town droughts in the recent decade.

In the last decade, Chile, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Bangladesh, Iran, Venezuela, El Salvador, Peru, and Brazil exposed a high drought hazard. They have endured a prolonged drought (D1 to D4) period exceeding nine years from 2010 to 2021. Out of the 70 countries, 22 countries experienced drought periods below four years and 32 countries fell within the intermediate range (four to eight years) of drought duration. This comprehensive assessment indicates the varying degrees of drought severity across the globe, emphasizing the need to understand multi-dimensional awareness of the global community on drought.

Global drought awareness in the recent decade

The Google Trends data showed a persistent increase in internet search activities of the global community about drought in the recent decade (Fig. 3 ). The multi-dimensional analysis of global drought awareness demonstrated a less-than-one ratio of RA/LA and a greater-than-one ratio of the level of GA/LA in a majority of the 70 countries, indicating that these countries are more interested in the hazard of local droughts than that of remote droughts, but the local droughts in these countries were aware by the global community. 27 countries (38%) showed a pronounced prevalence of local awareness exceeding global awareness (the less-than-one GA/LA ratio). 16 out of these 27 countries (23%), the level of local awareness surpassed both the levels of remote awareness, indicating a relatively high level of local drought awareness compared with the awareness of remote drought conditions. It is worth noting that national-level internet search activity data from Google Trends might miss some of individuals who might be interested in the local/remote drought conditions, but not search them on Google due to internet access or fulfilling their basic needs.

a Monthly relative online search activity volumes from Google Trends worldwide. A solid black line in ( a ) denotes the median of monthly relative online search activity volumes over 2010–2021. b A schematic diagram for local, remote, and global drought awareness. c Ratios of remote to local drought awareness. d Ratios of global to local awareness. Red hatch lines in ( c ) and ( d ) depict the countries with significant uncertainty in the Google trends data (see Methods ).

We found diversity in social response to past droughts in the LA-RA-GA dimensions. Chile, Kazakhstan, and Russia showed a comparable level of local and remote drought awareness. Chile and Kazakhstan have experienced a long-lasting drought, but Russia has experienced no drought occurrence over the study period. These results indicated that drought hazard is not the sole driver of interactions between local and remote drought awareness. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt characterized as deserts (<0.5 mm/day on the 10-year average) showed that the ratio is equal to one, reflecting equivalence in the level of local and remote drought awareness. 19 countries exhibited a greater-than-one ratio of remote drought awareness to local drought awareness, which included seven European (Sweden, the Czech Republic, Austria, Romania, Ireland, Finland, and Norway), five American (the United States of America, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Bolivia, and Ecuador), four Asian (India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Hong Kong), and three African (Nigeria, Mozambique, Zimbabwe) countries. These countries were a potential key community in monitoring the global drought conditions and disseminating the relevant information, such as sharing the news, blogs, and pictures from mass and social media.

Multi-dimensional impacts of GDP and drought duration on drought awareness

The impact of drought severity and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita on global drought awareness were examined in the local-remote-global awareness dimensions (Fig. 4 ). Our results indicated that remote awareness predominated in high-GDP countries. The countries that experienced severe drought showed an elevated level of both local and global awareness. Specifically, 50% of the 70 countries surpassed the median remote level (dotted lines in Fig. 4 ), with a notable contribution from Europe (21%), and followed by Asia (14%), North America (7%), Africa (3%), South America (3%), and Oceania (1%). 47% of the 70 countries exceeded the median global awareness level, with noteworthy contributions from Asia (14.28%), Europe (10%), Africa (8.57%), South America (8.57%).

Marker size in ( a ) and ( b ) indicates the GDP of a country and the duration of the longest drought events over 2012–2021. c Global distribution of the six-category countries. White inclined lines indicate countries with inconsistency among the 10 Google Trends data (see Methods ).

Furthermore, 54% of countries exceeded the median local awareness level, with contributions from Asia (22.8%), Europe (10%), Africa (8.57%), South America (8.57%), and North America (4.28%). These results underscore a heightened remote awareness in Europe, which was attributed to a combination of low drought severity and high GDP, indicating Europe’s concern for drought conditions in not only their countries but also other neighbouring countries. We also observed a similar role of drought duration in the LA-RA-GA relationship, indicating that a more severe drought heightens local and global awareness (Supplementary Fig. 2 ).

Our multi-dimensional analysis showed that drought awareness of the global community is not always contingent upon the drought hazard and characteristics. In the recent decade, certain countries like Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Chile experienced frequent and severe droughts yet exhibit comparatively a low level of both local and remote awareness. Other countries with limited drought occurrences demonstrated heightened remote awareness. Our investigation succeeded in revealing instances where the level of remote awareness surpasses that of local awareness. This discrepancy does not imply a lack of concern among the populace for drought within their respective countries; rather, it underscores the influence of short-lived drought periods on online information search behaviour of the global community.

Individuals worldwide express varying degrees of concern about drought, irrespective of its occurrence in their nations or localities, leading to a discernible pattern of elevated global awareness compared to local awareness. Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium are less susceptible to drought since they have a low level of local and remote awareness. We speculate that a low drought hazard can lead to a low level of awareness and interest of local and remote droughts at the national level. However, the Google Trends data used in this study are at the aggregate-level awareness, indicating a limited explanatory power of actual causes of a low level of drought awareness in these countries. To investigate the actual cause of a low-level of drought awareness, other data, such as survey and interview data, are required.

This study used relevant search activity volumes to drought (a search topic of disaster type) as a proxy of national-level drought awareness. To avoid irrelevant search activity volumes, this study focused on 70 nations with a high search activity volume. While this study used “drought” as a search topic, using other relevant search terms, such as “water storage” and “precipitation deficits”, can be used to explore how the public’s interest and received risk are changed over drought propagations.

Wikipedia and newspapers might be other data source to examine how online information seeking patterns changes during an emerging drought. Daily views of the Wikipedia page have been compared with the Google Trends data 26 . Daily views of the “Drought” page of Wikipedia were retrieved. Wikipedia has the “Drought” page in 103 languages since July 2015. Daily views of the “Drought” page are available in 87 languages. For temporal resolution matching with the Google Trends data, first the daily views of 87 languages of “Drought” were summed and then the total daily views were averaged over each month. Lastly, the monthly averages of the total daily views were divided by the maximum view from July 2015 through December 2021. The correlation of the daily views and Google Trends showed a low correlation ( r  = 0.15; Supplementary Fig. 3 ). This is different from the findings of global earthquake awareness that showed a high correlation between the Google Trends and daily views of the Wikipedia “Earthquake” page. This result suggested diversity in online seeking information activity patterns depending on the characteristics of a disaster of interest.

In this study, relevant search activity volume data were downloaded 10 times on different dates and applied the principal component analysis to the 10 sample data to assess consistency among the data. 18 nations showed inconsistency among the 10 sample data, indicating high uncertainty in the search activity volume data (hatched in Fig. 4c ).

The findings of this study were based on the aggregate-level drought awareness, which might have a limited explanatory power of the cause-effect processes between drought hazard and awareness.

Individual- and aggregate-level drought awareness have different patterns due to various socioeconomic factors. Survey and interview data can provide an opportunity to investigate how individuals perceive the risk of local and remote droughts, which can synthesize the findings of this study to advance our understanding of interactions between individual- and aggregative-level awareness. These survey and interview data however are not available over the globe and in real time/continuously because they are costly and time consuming. The findings of this study from the national-level search activity volume data highlight a need for development of the global survey and interview data for drought awareness.

This study proposed a multiple spatial dimensional analysis of drought awareness, introducing local, remote, and global-level awareness. This multi-dimension analysis focused on country-level awareness, which can affect drought awareness at multiple levels. When the averages of precipitation over a large country like Canada, China, Russia, and U.S.A, are used to calculate SPI, precipitation deficits should be severe enough to detect country-level droughts. If droughts are extensive and long-lasting, then people are more likely to seek search relevant information to the ongoing drought. Besides, the Google Trends data provide relative search activity volumes to the maximum search activity volume during the search period (herein 2010–2021). During the onset of a local drought, relevant search activity volumes would be relatively small. Therefore, using the country-level SPI and Google Trends for larger countries guarantees the severity of drought and the significance of relevant search activity volumes, which can reduce uncertainty in measuring the level of local awareness.

On the other hand, it is expected that there are less droughts in larger countries than smaller countries, simply because intrinsic (spatial) variation of precipitation within a large country. For example, if a small region within a larger country experiences a local drought, the proposed methodology would not identify any drought at a national level. Then, any searches within that region would be classified as remote awareness for the country when they experience the local drought. The proposed methods can cause uncertainties of remote awareness estimates, particularly large countries. We further compared relevant search activity volumes during drought with those during non-drought periods, that is, before and after drought events (Supplementary Fig. 4 ). We found those search activity volumes before and after drought events are relatively low compared with those drought events, indicating that the proposed methods are still a reliable approach to conduct a multi-dimensional study of local and remote awareness.

The comparison between the characteristics of historical droughts and recent occurrences reveals notable similarities at the continental scale except for South America. Despite a high drought hazard, the African countries exhibit comparatively low drought awareness levels. It is worth noting that six African nations (Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe) showed inconsistency among the 10 sample data, indicating that additional data, such as survey and interview data, are required for these countries, to determine whether the actual level of drought awareness is low or the actual awareness is high but other socioeconomic factors, such as the limited internet access and educational opportunities, cause a low search activity volume. Our analysis unveiled a lack of a robust correlation between drought vulnerability and awareness, suggesting the influence of additional socioeconomic factors on shaping public awareness. This insight highlights the complexity of the relationship between drought events and awareness levels, urging further exploration of these factors for a more comprehensive understanding.

Our investigation further revealed that countries like Greece, Malaysia, and El Salvador with low susceptibility to drought exhibit a noteworthy interest in searching drought-related queries on the Google platform. This observation aligns seamlessly with existing literature that delves into the impact of a “no-loss” experience, where even nations with minimal drought occurrences like Russia demonstrate heightened awareness and concern. Since 1901, precipitation has increased over Russia (Supplementary Fig. 5 ).

We observed that after the drought recovery, the search activity volumes about drought decreased but maintained relatively a certain level, contributing to sustained global interest in drought-related topics and resulting in a higher level of remote awareness than before the drought occurrence. This intriguing temporal pattern emerges, indicating that awareness tends to elevate notably in the aftermath of a 3- to 6-month drought recovery period. This temporal lag contributes to the phenomenon wherein certain vulnerable countries display higher remote awareness than local awareness, as information-seeking behaviour intensifies after this recovery interval when the adverse effects are measurable.

Our findings offered valuable insights for crafting targeted interventions in countries characterized by both severe drought conditions and low public awareness. By leveraging our results, policymakers can formulate effective strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of an emerging drought. Firstly, we recommend that the global community should build multiple channels that can report and share an emerging drought. Citizen participatory surveillance systems are costly efficient and reliable, particularly over nations with a low level of local awareness, particularly in the Asian and African countries. These citizen participatory surveillance system can calibrate the public’s perceived risk of the ongoing drought efficiently. Secondly, the global community should revitalize international exchanges programs of researchers and administrative staffs between the European countries and countries in other continents. We found that most of the European countries had a balance between local and remote awareness, indicating their continuing role in enhancing global drought awareness. Lastly, transdisciplinary research efforts should be encouraged to advance our understanding of social response to drought across nations and investigate new drought risk management plans are available with artificial intelligence and big data. These policy recommendations are crucial for sustainable development in a changing climate.

This study not only provides empirical evidence of global disparities in public interest regarding drought but also underscores the significant role developed nations play in shaping information-seeking behaviour on a global scale, drawing from diverse data sources. The latter discovery regarding the influence of developed nations can be attributed to long-standing conditions stemming from socioeconomic development. In societies with less economic advancement, immediate basic needs often take precedence, constraining attention to knowledge-seeking behaviours 26 . Conversely, residents of more prosperous nations possess greater opportunities for self-actualization through knowledge pursuit. Nonetheless, our results unveil nuances within developing countries, demonstrating that the social response to drought hazard varies among nations with lower socio-economic development.

Google Trends (GT) data

The Google Trends platform provides relative search activity volumes relevant to a term/topic of interest since 2004. A keyword can be chosen as a search term or search topic. The former option provides relevant search activity volumes including only the exact word (herein, “drought”) and the latter option provides relevant search activity volumes to a search topic in not only a certain language but also other languages 19 . This study used “drought” as a keyword with the search topic option (e.g., the disaster type of “drought” in not only English but also other languages). Depending on the length of the search period, the temporal resolution of relevant search activity volumes is determined whether it is hourly (highest), daily, weekly, or monthly (the coarsest). The spatial resolution can be chosen by users. It is worth noting that the Google Trends data are reliable when the search activity volume is sufficient. In this study, nations with a low search volume were excluded and the start and end year was chosen as 2010 and 2021, respectively.

We also used other keywords, such as “water scarcity” and “water shortage”, to evaluate the consistency of relevant search activity volumes with the keyword, “drought”. We found that the Google Trends platform didn’t provide a search topic option for “water shortage” and “precipitation deficit” mainly due to a relatively low volume of search activities. Singapore showed 0.33 of Pearson correlation coefficient of search activity volumes between “drought” and “water shortage. We found that search activity volume related to “drought” are dominant but some countries, such as Japan (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.107), Mexico (0.542), Pakistan (0.086), Peru (0.73), and Vietnam (−0.186), showed comparable activity volumes related to “drought” and “water scarcity.” (Supplementary Table 1 ). Mexico and Peru experienced a severe drought in the recent years, which lead to a high temporal correlation coefficient 10 .

This study extracted monthly relative search activity volumes of 70 nations from January 2010 to December 2021. The relative search activity index is calculated by dividing the total number of searches within a month by the maximum number during the selected period, with values ranging from 0 to 100. To assess uncertainties in the Google Trends data, first we retrieved relative search activity volumes of the 70 nations on ten different dates using the same search topic and period. Then, we applied the principal component analysis to the 10 Google Trends sample data for each country. The first principal component mode is used to examine the consistency/uncertainty with the 10 sample data (Supplementary Fig. 6 ). 52 out of 70 countries showed that their county-level Google Trend data are consistent to each other (less uncertain); however, the remaining 18 countries (hatched area in Fig. 3 ; Supplementary Figs. 7 and 8 ) showed inconsistency among the 10 sample data, which means that relative search activity volume data are sensitive to the retrieval date. These 18 countries include Egypt, Dominican Republic, Hungary, Bolivia, El Salvador, UAE, Algeria, Ecuador, Guatemala, Ethiopia, Greece, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, and Zimbabwe.

Global precipitation data

This study utilized the country-level spatial averages of Climate Research Unit version 4.06 monthly precipitation data over 1901–2021 29 . For validation, the spatial averages of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation data were calculated for the selected 70 countries over 1901–2019, using the Global Administrative Areas (GADM) version 3.6 ( https://gadm.org/download_country_v3.html ). For cross-validation, a correlation analysis of the country-level CRU and GPCC spatial averages was conducted (Supplementary Fig. 9 ). All countries show a positive correlation between the CRU and GPCC spatial averages. Puerto Rico showed the lowest correlation coefficient (0.377). It is worth noting that six countries in Middle East and Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Mozambique, Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E.) were excluded because they have annual precipitation was 0.5 mm/day or below on the 30-year average. This low precipitation threshold value have often used to determine desert regions 30 .

Identification and characterization of drought events

In this study, the 12-month normalized precipitation index (SPI12) was calculated for drought detection and characterization, following the method 10 . The threshold level approach is employed to ascertain the onset and recovery of a drought event1,13 22 , 23 . In this study, a drought event is detected when the SPI12 value is −0.5 or below for drought onset and the SPI12 value is 0.5 or above for drought recovery with at least a three-month drought duration (Supplementary Fig. 10 ). The drought duration can be measured from the onset month through the recovery month 13 . Drought intensity is defined as the minimum of the SPI12 values during the drought duration 21 , 30 . Based on the intensity, a drought event is classified into four levels: moderate (D1;−0.5 of SPI12 or below and −1.0 of SPI12 or above), severe (D2; below −1.0 of SPI12 and −1.5 of SPI12 or above), extreme (D3; below −1.5 of SPI12 and −2.0 of SPI12 or above), and exceptional drought (D4; below −2.0 of SPI12). The number of months from the onset to the recovery month can be defined as drought duration. We applied this method to calculate the drought events using historical monthly average precipitation data from 1901 to 2021 for 63 nations. Exclusion of seven countries from SPI analysis due to consistently low monthly precipitation (<0.5 mm per day on the 10-year average).

Data availability

All the data used in this study is available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AXJNNR when it is published. Google Trend data is available at trends.google.com/trends/ . CRU TSv4.06 country-level monthly precipitation is available at https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.06/crucy.2205251923.v4.06/ .

Code availability

All the codes to produce the figures is available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AXJNNR when it is published. We used Python 3.11 version to generate all the figures.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the CRU Climate Group and Google Trends for making available the climate and internet search data, respectively. This study was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2021R1A2C1093866) and Cooperative Research Method and Safety Management Technology in National Disaster funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea; 2022-MOIS63-001(RS-2022-ND641011)). D.M.A. was supported by the Global Korea Scholarship (GKS) Program of the National Institute for International Education (NIED).

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Dar Murtaza Ahmad contributed to methodology, investigation, visualization, writing–original draft, and writing–review & editing. Jonghun Kam contributed to conceptualization, methodology, investigation, visualization, funding acquisition, project administration, supervision, writing – review & editing.

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Ahmad, D.M., Kam, J. Disparity between global drought hazard and awareness. npj Clean Water 7 , 75 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-024-00373-y

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Sahavacharin, A.; Likitswat, F.; Irvine, K.N.; Teang, L. Community-Based Resilience Analysis (CoBRA) to Hazard Disruption: Case Study of a Peri-Urban Agricultural Community in Thailand. Land 2024 , 13 , 1363. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091363

Sahavacharin A, Likitswat F, Irvine KN, Teang L. Community-Based Resilience Analysis (CoBRA) to Hazard Disruption: Case Study of a Peri-Urban Agricultural Community in Thailand. Land . 2024; 13(9):1363. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091363

Sahavacharin, Alisa, Fa Likitswat, Kim N. Irvine, and Lihoun Teang. 2024. "Community-Based Resilience Analysis (CoBRA) to Hazard Disruption: Case Study of a Peri-Urban Agricultural Community in Thailand" Land 13, no. 9: 1363. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091363

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