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Exploring the Most Efficient Solutions to Water Scarcity

70% of the planet is covered in water, a key resource for almost every aspect of life and a major factor in health, peace, and security across the world. SDG 6 looks to ‘ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all’ by 2030; a quite ambitious task considering that 2.3 billion people – or one-quarter of the world’s population – live in water-stressed countries. Physical water scarcity refers to the lack of sufficient water in an area, whereas economic water scarcity occurs when people cannot afford access to water. The consequences are disproportionately felt by the poorest and most vulnerable. Although there is no international mandate, governments around the world have implemented policies and strategies to help tackle the issue. In this article, we explore some of the most common solutions to water scarcity.

What Are the Causes of Water Scarcity?

Only 3% of the world’s freshwater is accessible, with the rest frozen in glaciers or otherwise unavailable to us. Pressure from water scarcity is distributed as unequally as water distribution. One-third of those living in water-stressed countries are under critical threat – that’s nearly ten percent of the global population.

Contamination is responsible for the death of millions of people every year. Water laden with sewage and waste from agriculture and industry flows through most rivers and streams without treatment, allowing pesticides and toxic chemicals to leach into the groundwater and freshwater systems, critically lowering the availability of water resources .

Population growth and urbanisation drive an increase in demand for freshwater. Several countries around the world, from China and South Africa to some European nations and several US states have experienced water crises and droughts in recent years. 

Climate change expresses itself through water . In altering the global temperature and precipitation patterns, global warming vastly impacts the quality and spatial distribution of global resources. Drought and wildfires occur more frequently thanks to faster water evaporation from the soil and increasingly arid conditions. Of course, climate change also contributes to rising sea levels and mass flooding.  

You might also like: Water Shortage: Causes and Effects

What Are the Consequences of Water Scarcity?

The effects of water scarcity are glaring but are not confined to the obvious health, poverty, and disease-causing issues. According to water.org , nearly one million people die every year from water, sanitation, and hygiene-related diseases, all of which could be reduced by securing access to safe water and sanitation.

Water is a lifeline, not only for human survival but also for food production. According to the World Bank, agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater withdrawals globally and this is only expected to grow as the world population continues to grow .   

It is estimated that over 140 million people will be forced to migrate within their countries by 2050 due to climate change. It is estimated that around 500 million women do not have access to menstrual products or safe, hygienic spaces to use them, and 446,000 children under 5 die due to diarrhoea which is linked to inadequate WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) – equating to 9% of the 5.8 million deaths of children globally.

Inequality in access to water can also be a catalyst to conflict. In 2013, 27 conflicts around the world were related to water, rising to 71 in 2017. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated water-related tensions by targeting civilian infrastructure. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that 1.4 million Ukrainians now have no access to safe water, with a further 4.6 million experiencing limited access. 

In Egypt, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could reduce the water flowing downstream. Ethiopia is keen to fill it in just six years, causing Egypt to lose 36% of its water supply.  

“Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil but wars of the 21st century will be about water unless we change the way in which we manage it,” said Ismail Serageldin, the former vice president of the World Bank.

Nine out of ten natural disasters, like storms, floods, droughts, etc., are water-related. Wetlands are an integral part of biodiversity, supporting living things, the cultivation of rice, and water filtration, alongside flood control and storm protection. More than half the world’s wetlands have dried up.

Water Scarcity Around the World

Niger is a region experiencing continual water scarcity thanks to drought and degraded soils. In 2017, only 50% of the Nigerian population had proper access to drinking water. A large proportion of forested areas has been lost to demand for firewood and wood products by a quick-growing population that led to rapid deforestation , exacerbating water scarcity. The World Bank is investing in helping Niger harness its scarce water resources via The Integrated Water Security Platform , which aims to use disruptive technologies to promote proper management of Niger’s water, improve water supply, sanitation, and irrigation service delivery, and increase long-term sustainability. It is projected that 3 million people will benefit from this project. 

Further attempts by the government to replace fallen trees have been thwarted by ill-defined rights, but they have since managed to implement agroforestry . Following the reintroduction of trees, access to water in the country is finally improving. 

Chile is projected to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the face of worsening global warming. Each year for more than a decade, rainfall has been below average in the central areas of the country. Record high temperatures and more frequent heatwaves have further exacerbated the situation, leading to what experts refer to as a megadrought. But the water crisis in Chile is nothing new. In fact, it began over a decade ago and scientists attribute around 25% of its severity to human-induced climate change.

Former Chilean Agricultural Minister Maria Undurraga, said that the drought is “no longer an emergency [but] it turned into structural change.” 

The key to solving the Chilean water struggles lies in better governance, committing to net-zero infrastructure, and implementing a new constitution. However, following the 2022 referendum to determine public opinion on a New Political Constitution and its subsequent overwhelming rejection, the government’s ability to implement significant change has been challenging.

You might also like: ​​ Chile Water Crisis: 13 Years and Counting

The Water Project in Kenya is funding pioneering sand dam construction to help unlock potential through sustainable and community-constructed solutions. Only requiring a seasonal river, the approach has seen 130 sand dams built across the country.

Aquifers provide water and time for productive farming and allow for progression in techniques such as inter-cropping, zero-grazing, and seed banks, securing food supply even in drought. They provide a lifeline for people with clean and reliable water within 30-90 minutes of people’s homes .

4. South Africa

South Africa’s population has increased exponentially in recent years, but the infrastructure is vastly underprepared . Since the 2018 water shortage in Cape Town, official mandates regarding significant reductions in water usage have proved ineffective and have led to overcrowded communal taps, dangerous bore-holing, and the dangerous acceptance of contaminated groundwater sources to combat the drought.

The government sanctioned the drilling of boreholes near hospitals and schools for access to water underground but this is considered by many just a short-term solution. Saline water intrusions will render the water undrinkable in as little as six months , according to professor Phumelele Gama of Nelson Mandela University, so a different approach is required to solve South Africa’s water crisis. 

You might also like: Water Crisis in South Africa: Causes, Effects, And Solutions

A number of European nations are dealing with water scarcity. 

Last year, the longest river in Italy, the River Po, almost entirely dried out . The river stretches 405 miles (652 km), meandering through some of the country’s major cities, and has suffered massively at the hands of soaring temperatures and lack of precipitation. The direct impact on crops and feed production for livestock has resulted in major crop loss. Besides agriculture, the drought also critically affected hydropower energy generation.

Similarly, River Rhine, Germany’s main economic artery and Europe’s most important river, dried out completely in some areas amid last year’s drought, which experts dubbed the worst the continent has experienced in 500 years . With water levels dropping to a critical depth of 40 centimetres (just under 16 inches) or even below, most large ships transporting goods, including coal to diesel, were effectively unable to transit for days, with major repercussion on trade across the entire continent. 

Elsewhere in Europe, Barcelona was forced to import water supply from France after experiencing water shortages in its reservoirs over the arid summer of 2008, while demand for water in London is predicted to exceed what can be supplied within the next decade. 

2.3 billion people – or one-quarter of the world’s population – live in water-stressed countries.

Short-Term Solutions to Water Scarcity

Although water scarcity must be viewed as an ongoing problem, there are a few short term approaches that can help relieve pressure.

Concern USA , a global humanitarian organisation, highlights the efficacy of water trucking. By providing water to refugee areas during infrastructure improvement, drought or displacement, individuals can have access to clean water, while installing pumps in refugee camps can also help.

Water traded as a commodity is a moral conundrum: it puts basic human rights in the hands of financial institutions. But there is evidence to suggest that a water market , which allows resources to be allocated in accordance with the highest need, is beneficial. Underlying economic incentive renders the market effective as it promotes conservation and discourages overuse of water for monetary reward. Nations where water trading is utilised include the UK, Chile, and the US.

While short-term solutions are vital in ensuring the health and wellbeing of people dramatically affected by water scarcity, long-term approaches must be at the forefront of the international and local agendas.  

Long-Term Solutions to Water Scarcity

1. infrastructure.

Lacking infrastructure has devastating effects on human health and the economy, and fragile pipework and lack of supply to major regions not only waste resources but also impact everyone’s quality of life.

For this reason, smart investments in clean water and sanitation prevent needless deaths and transform lives. According to the United Nations, 100-200bn cubic metres of water could be saved globally by 2030 in urban areas simply by reducing leaks. 

It is up to cities to ensure the infrastructure is in place to deal with water scarcity in the face of warming global temperatures. A good example of an infrastructure-based solution to water scarcity is the smart-water management system utilised in South Korea, an innovative system that helps improve the reliability, soundness and efficiency of water management.

In China, the ‘sponge city’ initiative seeks to reuse 70% of rainwater and introduce wetlands by using the landscape to retain water, slow down the flow and clean it. In encouraging the reabsorption of water back into the groundwater system, China is taking steps to tackle water scarcity and prevent flooding.

Aqueducts move water to areas where it is required the most. However, they are not always efficient in tackling water shortages. The Owens Lake and Mono Lake in California, for example, started to disappear after the water supply was diverted to the Los Angeles aqueduct, aggravating drought conditions. Aqueducts therefore may not be the best solution to water scarcity. 

2. Irrigation and Agriculture 

According to a World Economic Forum report , sustainable and efficient agricultural management techniques “are needed to grow more food on less land and with less water.”

Reservoirs have their advantages. They collect water during wetter times and store it to use during the dry season. They are also used to generate electricity and can be a crucial instrument in the prevention of floods. While effective in helping water-stress nations, reservoirs are also sometimes associated with downstream river erosion and can have a detrimental impact on ecosystems as well, changing a river to a lake habitat and interfering with migration and spawning of fish.

Desalination removes dissolved salt and minerals from plentiful seawater, freeing up water for consumption. However, these processes are expensive and require large amounts of energy to perform. Saudi Arabia is utilising solar-powered plants for desalination, while the UK is opting for small-scale facilities for agriculture.

Individual households can also consider reusing water by rerouting sink water to flush the toilet. On a larger scale, sewage wastewater can be purified and turned into drinking water, or used for agriculture, municipal water supply, industrial processes, and environmental restoration.

3. Conservation

We waste an incomprehensible amount of water each year, mostly indirectly through agricultural processes, the automotive industry, and mining . According to the World Water Council , water usage via irrigation and agriculture accounts for 70% of water withdrawals, while industry accounts for 20% .

A UK statement to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe ( OSCE ) stressed the importance of “sustainable management of natural resources to mitigate impacts of climate and biodiversity crises”, including water. By eliminating pollution and continuing to measure and manage pollution and water quality, we can work toward human health and biodiversity protection.

4. Community

Building communities around local water systems and resources can help raise awareness and educate people on consumption and a sustainable lifestyle. The World Wildlife Fund ( WWF ) supports organisations to become responsible water stewards at both the global and local levels, including the Alliance for Water Stewardship , a globally accepted framework for major water users which promotes the sustainable use of water and other local projects. The Alliance offers solutions for reducing the impact of water scarcity by tracking and controlling water use.

Educating people on changing or improving their behaviour for the better could hold the key to greatly reducing water crises in the future. This, however, will require a major overhaul of all forms of consumption including individual use and supply chains of major corporations .

5. International Cooperation

Transboundary cooperation is needed to guarantee equal access to this vital resource worldwide and for economic well-being. Binding international frameworks for natural resources is hard to achieve, as evidenced by the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which attempted to solidify emission pledges from all major economies. Unfortunately, it resulted in no clear path toward a treaty with binding commitments.

Transboundary agreements are equally hard to manage but international bodies must keep trying. Securing quality drinking water at the local level is essential to building international bridges and finding long-term solutions.

Policy Suggestions

The need for effective policy founded in evidence-based decisions means recognising water value in different societies and implementing integrated approaches to water resource management.

Political commitment and leadership, technological innovations as well as breakthroughs in service delivery and financing models are all needed to support governments in delivering on their commitment to SDG 6.2. Building strong institutions and facilitating dialogue and information systems that can support resource management will allow cooperative agreements to be reached. 

In the European Union, for example, the Water Framework Directive (2000) provides guidelines to address water scarcity and drought, while water scarcity and droughts are recognised as a priority in the 2021 European Green Deal and are reflected in strategies such as the Adaptation to Climate Change, the 2020 Circular Economy Action Plan and the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 . 

Legislation must be rolled out on an international scale to ensure the taming of water crises across the world.

Final Thoughts

The success of the rest of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) lies on the shoulders of a functioning water cycle, as water, as the UN states , drives “economic growth, supports healthy ecosystems and is essential and fundamental for life itself.”

Despite the success of some nations in combating complications related to water scarcity, the world still has a long way to go to secure safe and accessible water for everyone. Not only does infrastructure need to be improved to cope with water scarcity, but human approaches to water must undergo a dramatic shift. Innovation and technology require economic capital in order to fully invest in these procedures – unfortunately a luxury only the developed world has access to. Policy and legislation must also be upheld.

If you want to learn more about solutions to water scarcity, check out this article next: Water Trading Market: A Solution to Water Scarcity?

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• Water Scarcity Essay

Essay on Water Scarcity

Water is the basic necessity of every human being, but water scarcity is a major issue that is rising very rapidly in India nowadays. The problem has become so severe that in many states the groundwater has almost dried up and people have to depend on water supply from other sources. In addition, water is one of the most misused natural resources that we still waste. It is the central point of our lives but unfortunately, not our priority concern. 

Earlier, people understood the value of water and planned their lives around it. Moreover, many civilizations were born and lost around water, but today, in spite of having knowledge, we still fail to understand the value of water in our lives. 

Reasons for Water Scarcity

Mismanagement of water and the growing population in our country are the two main reasons for water scarcity. There are also a number of other man made disturbances that continue to rise. Besides this, some of the reasons for water scarcity are:  

Wasteful Use of Water for Agriculture  

India, an agricultural country, produces a huge quantity of food to feed its population. The surplus that is left, gets exported outside. 

It is not unknown that producing this much food requires a lot of water too. The traditional method of irrigation wastes a lot of water due to evaporation, water conveyance, drainage, percolation, and the overuse of groundwater. Besides, most of the areas in India use traditional irrigation techniques that stress the availability of water.

However, the technique of irrigation has changed during modern times and we provide water to plants using a sprinkler or drip irrigation.

Reduction in Water Recharges Systems  

Rapid construction that uses concrete and marbles may not let the rainwater get absorbed in the soil, but still, we install some mechanism in our houses so that we can hold the rainwater. Then we can recharge the groundwater.

Lack of Water Management and Distribution

There is a need for an efficient system to manage and distribute the water in urban areas. The Indian government also needs to enhance its technology and investment in water treatment. Besides, we should ensure optimization at the planning level.

Solutions to Overcome this Problem

Close the running tap.

 During dishwashing and hand washing people often let the tap run. These running taps waste thousands of liters of water per year. Therefore, closing the tap will reduce this problem.

Replace Dripping Taps  

In India, it is commonly seen that most of the houses have taps or faucets that go on dripping water even when they are closed. This running tap wastes up to 30,000 liters of water that nobody bothers to change. So, we should replace these taps immediately.

Brief on Water Scarcity  

Water is a basic necessity for every living being.  Life without water is impossible, not just for us humans, but for all plants and animals too. Water scarcity is an issue of grave concern these days as water scarcity has become very common. Water is one of the most wasted natural resources and corrective measures should be taken before the water scarcity situation becomes worse. In spite of being aware of the implications, not much is being done today. 

In India, and across the world, it has been recorded that about half a billion people face a shortage of water for about six months annually. Many well-known cities around the world are facing acute scarcity of water. Many facts and figures are available to know about the water scarcity problem, but what are the reasons for this scarcity? 

With the growing population, the use of water has increased manifold. The lack of more freshwater sources and the increase in population is a major reason for this scarcity. The lack of proper Water management systems and proper drainage systems in India, especially in the urban areas is a major cause too. Kitchen wastewater should be able to be recycled but due to a poor drainage system, this is not possible. An efficient water management system is required in order to distribute water in urban areas.

Another major issue is Deforestation. Areas with more greenery and plants are known to have good rainfall.  Industrialisation and urbanization are two major factors here. Due to Deforestation, and cutting down of trees, rainfall has become an issue too.

Rivers are a major source of fresh water in India. Today we see a lot of industries that have come up and all of them are mostly near the rivers and these rivers become highly polluted as a result of all the industrial waste.

Effect of Global Warming and Climate Change

Global Warming and Climate Change are also responsible for the scarcity of water. The melting of icebergs into the sea due to the rise in temperatures is a reason as to how salty water is increasing day by day instead of freshwater. The percentage of rainfall has decreased drastically these days. Climate change along with the decrease in rainfall percentage has greatly affected freshwater bodies. 

Water scarcity has become a major problem and an alarming issue these days, and we must consciously strive to work together to find some solution to this issue of water scarcity. The Indian government today has formulated and come up with many plans on how to tackle and solve this problem.

To conclude, water scarcity has become an alarming issue day by day. If we do not take the problem of water scarcity seriously now, our future generations are going to suffer severely and may even have to buy this necessity at a high cost.

FAQs on Water Scarcity Essay

1.  What are the reasons for Water Scarcity?

The lack of proper Water Management and proper Drainage system plays a major role. Many other factors and reasons can be held responsible for the scarcity of water. Some of the major reasons are Global Warming and Climate Change; Pollution of the rivers due to industrialization; Deforestation and the cutting down of trees is another reason; Reduced percentage of rainfall due to the climate change pattern; Increase in the population which leads to increase in the use of water.  Learn more about water scarcity on Vedantu website helpful for long-term.

2. What is meant by the scarcity of water?

The scarcity of water means a shortage of water and not being able to manage the demand and supply of water. Water scarcity refers to the lack of freshwater bodies to meet the standard quantity and demand of water. Unequal distribution of water due to factors like Climate Change and Global Warming. Water Scarcity is also due to pollution and lack of rainfall. Water scarcity means a scarcity due to some physical scarcity or scarcity due to the lack of regular supply.

3. What are the two types of water scarcity?

Physical water scarcity is the result of regions' demand outpacing the limited water resources found in that location. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, about 1.2 billion people live in areas of physical scarcity and many of these people live in arid or semi-arid regions. People who are affected by this Physical kind of water scarcity are expected to grow as the population increases and as the weather patterns keep changing as a result of climate change.

Economic water scarcity is due to the lack of proper water infrastructure and a proper water management system or also because of poor management of water resources. The FAO estimates that more than 1.6 billion people face economic water shortages today. Economic water scarcity can also take place because of the unregulated use of water for agriculture and industry.

4.  How can we solve the problem?

Conscious awareness is required to deal with and understand the problem of water scarcity. We can start off by consciously saving water in our homes and surroundings.  Small easy steps like taking care when washing hands, or when working in the kitchen, have to be taken. The running water taps are a major reason for losing hundreds of liters of water on a daily basis. And we should be careful not to waste this water. Conscious decision to save and the need to understand the problem of water scarcity is of utmost importance.

5. How do we waste water?

Water is wasted in ways we do not even realize, in our homes and in our workplaces. When we brush our teeth, when we shave or when we wash the dishes, one of the most common things we do is to keep the water running, especially when running water is available. As soon as we begin cleaning or washing, we do not think of the water that is being wasted. While washing hands, we leave the water tap on, which results in wasting water too. Small things like these should be kept in mind and this could be our small step towards preserving water.

Water Scarcity Essay for Students and Children

500+ words essay on water scarcity essay.

Water is the basic necessity of every human being. But, water scarcity is a major issue that is rising very rapidly in modern-day India. The problem has become so severe that in many states the groundwater has almost dried up and people have to depend on water supply from other sources. In addition, water is one of the most misused commodities that we still waste. It is the central point of our lives but not the central point of our focus.

In the past, people understand the value of water and plan their lives around it. Moreover, many civilizations bloom and lost on account of water. But, today we have knowledge but we still fail to understand the value of water.

Reason for Water Scarcity in India

Water scarcity is the cause of mismanagement and excess population growth of the water resources. Also, it is a man-made issue that continues to rise. Besides, some of the reasons for water scarcity are:

Wasteful use of water for Agriculture- India is one of the major food growers in the world. That produces tons of quantity of food to feed its population and export the surplus that is left.

In addition, producing this much food requires a lot of water too. The traditional method of irrigation wastes a lot of water due to evaporation, water conveyance, drainage, percolation, and the overuse of groundwater. Besides, most of the areas in India use traditional irrigation techniques that stress the availability of water.

But, the solution to this problem lies in the extensive irrigation techniques such as micro-irrigation in which we provide water to plants and crops using a sprinkler or drip irrigation.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Reduction in water recharge systems- Due to rapid construction that uses concrete and marbles do not let the rainwater to get absorbed in the soil. But, if we install some mechanism in our houses that can hold the rainwater then we can recharge the groundwater .

Lack of water management and distribution- There is a need for an efficient system that can manage and distribute the water in urban areas. Also, the government needs to enhance its technology and investment in water treatment. Besides, we should ensure optimization at the planning level.

Solutions to Overcome this Problem

Water-free urinal- Urinal waste around 6 liters of water per flush that add up to 25 thousand liters per year. If a male member of the house stops using the flush then they can save lots of water.

Close the running tap- During dishwashing and hand washing people often let the tap running. These running taps waste thousands of liters of water per year. Besides, closing the tap will reduce this problem.

Replace dripping taps- In India it is commonly seen that most of the houses have one or two taps that drop water even when they are close. This running tap wastes up to 30,000 liters of water that nobody bothers to change. So, we should replace these taps immediately.

To conclude, water scarcity has become a more dangerous problem day by day. Also, due to our leniency that we haven’t taken the problem water scarcity seriously. But, now the authorities and people are working to resolve this problem so that our future generations do not have to buy this necessity.

FAQs about Water Scarcity Essay

Q.1 What is the effect of water scarcity? A.1 In a broad way, the problem of water scarcity can be categorized into four areas- health, education, hunger, and poverty.

Q.2 Name three major causes of water scarcity? A.2 The three major causes of water scarcity are Increase in demand, government interference, and a decrease in supply.

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• Published: 03 August 2021

Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions

• Chunyang He   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8440-5536 1 , 2 ,
• Zhifeng Liu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4087-0743 1 , 2 ,
• Jianguo Wu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1182-3024 1 , 2 , 3 ,
• Xinhao Pan 1 , 2 ,
• Zihang Fang 1 , 2 ,
• Jingwei Li 4 &
• Brett A. Bryan   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4834-5641 5  

Nature Communications volume  12 , Article number:  4667 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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• Environmental sciences
• Water resources

Urbanization and climate change are together exacerbating water scarcity—where water demand exceeds availability—for the world’s cities. We quantify global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, and explored potential solutions. Here we show the global urban population facing water scarcity is projected to increase from 933 million (one third of global urban population) in 2016 to 1.693–2.373 billion people (one third to nearly half of global urban population) in 2050, with India projected to be most severely affected in terms of growth in water-scarce urban population (increase of 153–422 million people). The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to 193–284, including 10–20 megacities. More than two thirds of water-scarce cities can relieve water scarcity by infrastructure investment, but the potentially significant environmental trade-offs associated with large-scale water scarcity solutions must be guarded against.

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Introduction

The world is rapidly urbanizing. From 1950 to 2020, the global population living in cities increased from 0.8 billion (29.6%) to 4.4 billion (56.2%) and is projected to reach 6.7 billion (68.4%) by 2050 1 . Water scarcity—where demand exceeds availability—is a key determinant of water security and directly affects the health and wellbeing of urban residents, urban environmental quality, and socioeconomic development 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . At present, many of the world’s urban populations face water scarcity 3 . Population growth, urbanization, and socioeconomic development are expected to increase urban industrial and domestic water demand by 50–80% over the next three decades 4 , 7 . In parallel, climate change will affect the spatial distribution and timing of water availability 8 , 9 . As a result, urban water scarcity is likely to become much more serious in the future 10 , 11 , 12 , potentially compromising the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) especially SDG11 Sustainable Cities and Communities and SDG6 Clean Water and Sanitation 13 , 14 .

Urban water scarcity has typically been addressed via engineering and infrastructure. Reservoirs are commonly used to store water during periods of excess availability and continuously supply water to cities to avoid water shortages during dry periods 15 . Desalination plants are increasingly used to solve water deficit problems for coastal cities 16 . For cities where local water resources cannot meet demand, inter-basin water transfer can also be an effective solution 17 (Supplementary Table  8 ). However, investment in water infrastructure is costly; requires substantial human, energy, and material resources; is limited by natural conditions such as geographic location and topography; and may have very significant environmental impacts 2 , 3 , 18 . Hence, a comprehensive understanding of water scarcity and the potential solutions for the world’s cities is urgently required to promote more sustainable and livable urban futures 7 , 18 , 19 .

Previous studies have evaluated urban water scarcity 2 , 3 , 7 , 19 (Supplementary Table  3 ). However, these studies have been limited in a number of ways including: assessing only a subset of the urban population (e.g., large cities only or regional in focus); considering only part of the water scarcity problem (i.e., availability but not withdrawal); or lacking a future perspective. For example, in assessing global urban water scarcity, Flörke et al. 7 considered 482 cities (accounting for just 26% of the global urban population) under a business-as-usual scenario, and while McDonald et al. 2 assessed a larger range of cities and scenarios, they considered water availability only, not withdrawals. As a result, significant uncertainty in estimates of current and future extent of urban water-scarcity remain, varying from 0.2 to 1 billion people affected in 2000 and from 0.5 to 4 billion in 2050 (Supplementary Table  4 ). A comprehensive assessment of global urban water scarcity is needed to identify cities at risk and provide better estimates of the number of people affected.

In addition, although many studies have discussed potential solutions to urban water scarcity, few have investigated the feasibility of these solutions for water-scarce cities at the global scale. Proposed solutions include groundwater exploitation, seawater desalination, increased water storage in reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, improved water-use efficiency, and urban landscape management 2 , 3 , 14 , 19 . However, the potential effectiveness of these solutions for the world’s water-scarce cities depends on many factors including the severity of water scarcity, urban and regional geography and hydrogeology, socio-economic characteristics, and environmental carrying capacity 7 , 20 . Pairing the identification of water scarce cities with an evaluation of potential solutions is essential for guiding investment in future urban water security.

In this study, we comprehensively assessed global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 and the feasibility of potential solutions for water-scarce cities. We first quantified the spatial patterns of the global urban population for 2016 at a grid-cell resolution of 1 km 2 by integrating spatial urban land-use and population data. We then identified water-scarce areas at the catchment scale by combining global water resource availability and demand data, and calculated the global urban population in water-scarce areas in 2016. We also quantified the global urban population in water-scarce areas for 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios by combining modeled projections of global urban area, population, and water availability and demand. Finally, we evaluated the feasibility of seven major solutions for easing water scarcity for each affected city. We discuss the implications of the results for mitigating global urban water scarcity and improving the sustainability and livability of the world’s cities.

Current urban water scarcity

Globally, 933 million (32.5%) urban residents lived in water-scarce regions in 2016 (Table  1 , Fig.  1b ) with 359 million (12.5%) and 573 million (20.0%) experiencing perennial and seasonal water scarcity, respectively. India (222 million) and China (159 million) had the highest urban populations facing water scarcity (Table  1 , Fig.  1c ).

a spatial patterns of large cities in water-scarce areas (cities with population above 10 million in 2016 were labeled). b Water-scarce urban population at the global scale. c Water-scarce urban population at the national scale (10 countries with the largest values were listed). Please refer to Supplementary Data for urban water scarcity in each catchment.

Of the world’s 526 large cities (i.e., population >1 million), 193 (36.7%) were located in water-scarce regions (96 perennial, 97 seasonal) (Fig.  1a ). Of the 30 megacities (i.e., population >10 million), 9 (30.0%) were located in water-scarce regions (Table  2 ). Six of these, including Los Angeles, Moscow, Lahore, Delhi, Bangalore, and Beijing, were located in regions with perennial water scarcity and three (Mexico City, Istanbul, and Karachi) were seasonally water-scarce (Fig.  1a ).

Urban water scarcity in 2050

At the global scale, the urban population facing water scarcity was projected to increase rapidly, reaching 2.065 (1.693–2.373) billion people by 2050, a 121.3% (81.5–154.4%) increase from 2016 (Table  1 , Fig.  2a ). 840 (476–905) million people were projected to face perennial water scarcity and 1.225 (0.902–1.647) billion were projected to face seasonal water scarcity (Table  1 ). India’s urban population growth in water-scarce regions was projected to be much higher than other countries (Fig.  2b ), increasing from 222 million people to 550 (376–644) million people in 2050 and accounting for 26.7% (19.2%–31.2%) of the world’s urban population facing water scarcity (Table  1 ).

a Changes in water-scarce urban population at the global scale. Bars present the simulated results using the ensemble mean of runoff from GCMs, the total values (i.e., perennial and seasonal), and percentages are labeled. Crosses (gray/black) present the simulated results (total/perennial) using runoff from each GCM. b Changes in water-scarce urban population at the national scale (10 countries with the largest values were listed). Bars present the total values simulated using the ensemble mean of runoff from GCMs. Crosses present the total values simulated using runoff from each GCM. Please refer to Supplementary Data for urban water scarcity in each catchment.

Nearly half of the world’s large cities were projected to be located in water-scarce regions by 2050 (Fig.  3 , Supplementary Fig.  3 ). The number of large cities facing water scarcity under at least one scenario was projected to increase to 292 (55.5%) by 2050. The number of megacities facing water scarcity under at least one scenario was projected to increase to 19 (63.3%) including 10 new megacities (i.e., Cairo, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lima, Manila, Mumbai, New York, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Tianjin) (Table  2 ).

Only the water-scarce cities are listed. Cities with a population >10 million in 2016 are labeled.

Factors influencing urban water scarcity

Growth in urban population and water demand will be the main factor contributing to the increase in urban water scarcity (Fig.  4 ). From 2016 to 2050, population growth, urbanization, and socioeconomic development were projected to increase water demand and contribute to an additional 0.990 (0.829–1.135) billion people facing urban water scarcity, accounting for 87.5% (80.4–91.4%) of the total increase. Climate change was projected to alter water availability and increase the urban population subject to water scarcity by 52 (−72–229) million, accounting for 4.6% (−9.0–18.4%) of the total increase.

Bars present the simulated results using the ensemble mean of runoff from GCMs, crosses present the simulated results using runoff from each GCM.

Potential solutions to urban water scarcity

Water scarcity could be relieved for 276 (94.5%) large cities, including 17 (89.5%) megacities, via the measures assessed (Table  3 , Supplementary Table  5 ). Among these, 260 (89.0%) cities have the option of implementing two or more measures. For example, Los Angeles can adopt desalination, groundwater exploitation, inter-basin water transfer, and/or virtual water trade (Table  3 ). However, 16 large cities, including two megacities (i.e., Delhi and Lahore) in India and Pakistan, are restricted by geography and economic development levels, making it difficult to adopt any of the potential water scarcity solutions (Table  3 ).

Domestic virtual water trade was the most effective solution, which could alleviate water scarcity for 208 (71.2%) large cities (including 14 (73.7%) megacities). Inter-basin water transfer could be effective for 200 (68.5%) large cities (including 14 (73.7%) megacities). Groundwater exploitation could be effective for 192 (65.8%) large cities (including 11 (57.9%) megacities). International water transfer and virtual water trade showed potential for 190 (65.1%) large cities (including 10 (52.6%) megacities). Reservoir construction could relieve water scarcity for 151 (51.7%) large cities (including 10 (52.6%) megacities). Seawater desalination has the potential to relieve water scarcity for 146 (50.0%) large cities (including 12 (63.2%) megacities). In addition, water scarcity for 68 (23.3%) large cities, including five megacities (i.e., New York, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, Dhaka, and Jakarta), could be solved via the water-use efficiency improvements, slowed population growth rate, and climate change mitigation measures considered under SSP1&RCP2.6.

We have provided a comprehensive evaluation of current and future global urban water scarcity and the feasibility of potential solutions for water-scarce cities. We found that the global urban population facing water scarcity was projected to double from 933 million (33%) in 2016 to 1.693–2.373 billion (35–51%) in 2050, and the number of large cities facing water scarcity under at least one scenario was projected to increase from 193 (37%) to 292 (56%). Among these cities, 276 large cities (95%) can address water scarcity through improving water-use efficiency, limiting population growth, and mitigating climate change under SSP1&RCP2.6; or via seawater desalination, groundwater exploitation, reservoir construction, interbasin water transfer, or virtual water trade. However, no solutions were available to relieve water scarcity for 16 large cities (5%), including two megacities (i.e., Delhi and Lahore) in India and Pakistan.

Previous studies have estimated the global urban population facing water scarcity to be between 150 and 810 million people in 2000, between 320 and 650 million people in 2010, and increasing to 0.479–1.445 billion people by 2050 (Supplementary Table  4 ). Our estimates of 933 million people in 2016 facing urban water scarcity, increasing to 1.693–2.373 billion people by 2050, are substantially higher than previously reported (Supplementary Fig.  5a ). This difference is attributed to the fact that we evaluated the exposure of all urban dwellers rather than just those living in large cities (Supplementary Table  3 ). According to United Nations census data, 42% of the world’s urban population lives in small cities with a total population of <300,000 (Supplementary Fig.  4 ). Therefore, it is difficult to fully understand the global urban water scarcity only by evaluating the exposure of large cities. This study makes up for this deficiency and provides a comprehensive assessment of global urban water scarcity.

In addition, we used spatially corrected urban population data, newly released water demand/availability data, simulated runoff from GCMs in the most recent CMIP6 database, catchment-based estimation approach covering the upstream impacts on downstream water availability, and the new scenario framework combining socioeconomic development and climate change. Such data and methods can reduce the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of urban population and water demand/availability in the future, providing a more reliable assessment of global urban water scarcity.

Our projections suggest that global urban water scarcity will continue to intensify from 2016 to 2050 under all scenarios. By 2050, near half of the global urban population was projected to live in water-scarce regions (Figs.  2 ,  3 ). This will directly threaten the realization of SDG11 Sustainable Cities and Communities and SDG6 Clean Water and Sanitation . Although 95% of water-scarce cities can address the water crisis via improvement of water-use efficiency, seawater desalination, groundwater exploitation, reservoir construction, interbasin water transfer, or virtual water trade (Supplementary Table  5 ), these measures will not only have transformative impacts on society and the economy, but will also profoundly affect the natural environment. For example, the construction of reservoirs and inter-basin water transfer may cause irreversible damage to river ecosystems and hydrogeology and change the regional climate 4 , 15 , 17 , 21 , 22 . Desalination can have serious impacts on coastal zones and marine ecosystems 16 , 23 . Virtual water trade will affect regional economies, increase transport sector greenhouse gas emissions, and may exacerbate social inequality and affect the local environments where goods are produced 19 , 24 .

Water scarcity solutions may not be available to all cities. The improvement of water-use efficiency as well as other measures require the large-scale construction of water infrastructure, rapid development of new technologies, and large economic investment, which are difficult to achieve in low- and middle-income countries by 2050 14 . In addition, there will be 16 large cities, such as Delhi and Lahore, that cannot effectively solve the water scarcity problem via these measures (Supplementary Table  5 ). These cities also face several socioeconomic and environmental issues such as poverty, rapid population growth, and overextraction and pollution of groundwater 25 , 26 , which will further affect the achievement of SDG1 No Poverty , SDG3 Good Health and Well-being , SDG10 Reduced Inequalities , SDG14 Life below Water and SDG15 Life on Land .

To address global urban water scarcity and realize the SDGs, four directions are suggested. We need to:

Promote water conservation and reduce water demand. Our assessment provides evidence that the proposed water conservation efforts under SSP1&RCP2.6 are effective, which results in the least water-scarce urban population (34–241 million fewer compared to other SSPs&RCPs) at the global scale and can mitigate water scarcity for 68 (23.3%) large cities. The application of emerging water-saving technologies and the construction of sponge cities, smart cities, low-carbon cities, and resilient cities as well as the development of new theories and methods such as landscape sustainability science, watershed science, and geodesign will also play an important role for the further water demand reduction 5 , 6 , 27 , 28 , 29 . To implement these measures, the cooperation and efforts of scientists, policy makers and the public, as well as sufficient financial and material support are required. In addition, international cooperation must be strengthened in order to promote the development and dissemination of new technologies, assist in the construction of water infrastructure, and raise public awareness of water-savings, particularly in the Global South 30 .

Control population growth and urbanization in water-scarce regions by implementing relevant policies and regional planning. Urban population growth increases both water stress and the exposure of people, making it a key driver exacerbating global urban water scarcity 2 . Hence, the limitation of urban population growth in water-scarce areas can help to address this issue. According to our estimation, the control of urbanization under SSP3&RCP7.0, which has the lowest urbanization rate among four scenarios, can reduce the urban population subject to water scarcity by 93–207 million people compared with the business-as-usual scenario (SSP2&RCP4.5) and the rapid urbanization scenario (SSP5&RCP8.5), including 80–178 million people in India alone by 2050 (Fig.  2 ). To realize this pathway, policies that encourage family planning as well as tax incentives and regional planning for promoting population migration from water-scarce areas to other areas are needed 18 . In particular, for cities such as Delhi and Lahore that are both restricted by geography and socioeconomic disadvantage and have few options for dealing with water scarcity, there is an urgent need to control urban population growth and urbanization rates.

Mitigate climate change through energy efficiency and emissions abatement measures to avoid water resource impacts caused by the change in precipitation and the increase in evapotranspiration due to increased temperature. Our contribution analysis shows that the impacts of climate change on urban water scarcity is quite uncertain (ranging from a reduction of 72 million water-scarce urban people to an increase of 229 million) under different scenarios and GCMs (Fig.  4 ). On average, climate change under the business-as-usual scenario (SSP2&RCP4.5) will increase the global water-scarce urban population by 31 million in 2050. If the emissions reduction measures under SSP1&RCP2.6 are adopted, the increase in global water-scarce urban population due to climate change will be cut by half (16 million) in 2050. Thus, mitigating climate change is also important to reducing urban water scarcity. Considering that climate change in water-scarce areas would be affected by both internal and external impacts, mitigating climate change requires a global effort 31 .

Undertake integrated local sustainability assessment of water scarcity solutions. Our assessment reveals that 208 (71.2%) large cities may address water scarcity through seawater desalination, groundwater exploitation, reservoir construction, interbasin water transfer, and/or virtual water trade (Supplementary Table  5 ). While our results provide a guide at the global scale, city-level decisions about which measures to adopt to alleviate water scarcity involve very significant investments and should be supported by detailed local assessments of their relative effectiveness weighed against the potentially significant financial, environmental, and socio-economic costs. Integrated analyses are needed to quantify the effects of potential solutions on reducing water scarcity, their financial and resource requirements, and their potential impacts on socio-economic development for water-scarce cities and the sustainability of regional environments. To guard against the potential negative impacts of these measures, comprehensive impact assessments are required before implementing them, stringent regulatory oversight and continuous environmental monitoring are needed during and after their implementation, and policies and regulations should be established to achieve the sustainable supply and equitable distribution of water resources 24 , 32 .

Uncertainty is prevalent in our results due to limitations in the methodology and data used. First, constrained by data availability, in the evaluation of urban water scarcity in 2016 we used water demand/availability data for 2014 derived from the simulation results of the PCRGLOBWB 2 model, and only considered the inter-basin water transfers listed in City Water Map and the renewable groundwater simulated from the PCRGLOBWB 2 model instead of all available groundwater 3 , 33 . In the assessment of urban water scarcity and feasibility of potential solutions in 2050, we used water demand data derived from Hanasaki et al. 34 , in which irrigated area expansion, crop intensity change, and improvement in irrigation water efficiency were considered, but the change in irrigation to adapt to climate change as well as the impacts of energy systems (e.g., bio-energy production, mining, and fossil fuel extraction) on water demand were not fully considered 35 . Second, in order to maintain consistency and comparability of the water stress index (WSI) with the PCRGLOBWB 2 outputs 33 , environmental flow requirements were not considered. Following Mekonnen and Hoekstra 36 and Veldkamp et al. 37 (2017), we used an extreme threshold for WSI of 1.0 (where the entire water available is withdrawn for human use). If a more conservative threshold (e.g., WSI = 0.4 which is the threshold defining high water stress) was used, estimated global water scarcity and the urban population exposed to water stress would be much higher 7 .

In summary, global urban water scarcity is projected to intensify greatly from 2016 to 2050. By 2050, nearly half of the global urban population (1.693–2.373 billion) were projected to live in water-scarce regions, with about one quarter concentrated in India, and 19 (63%) global megacities are expected to face water scarcity. Increases in urban population and water demand drove this increase, while changes in water availability due to climate change compounded the problem. About 95% of all water-scarce cities could find at least one potential solution, but substantial investment is needed and solutions may have significant environmental and socioeconomic consequences. The aggravation of global urban water scarcity and the consequences of potential solutions will challenge the achievement of several SDGs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to further improve water-use efficiency, control urbanization in water-scarce areas, mitigate water availability decline due to climate change, and undertake integrated sustainability analyses of potential solutions to address urban water scarcity and promote sustainable development.

Description of scenarios used in this study

To assess future urban water scarcity, we used the scenario framework from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), part of the International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) 38 . The scenarios have been developed to better link the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to support comprehensive research in different fields to better understand global climatic and socioeconomic interactions 38 , 39 . We selected the four ScenarioMIP Tier 1 scenarios (i.e., SSP1&RCP2.6, SSP2&RCP4.5, SSP3&RCP7.0, and SSP5&RCP8.5) to evaluate future urban water scarcity. SSP1&RCP2.6 represents the sustainable development pathway of low radiative forcing level, low climate change mitigation challenges, and low social vulnerability. SSP2&RCP4.5 represents the business-as-usual pathway of moderate radiative forcing and social vulnerability. SSP3&RCP7.0 represents a higher level of radiative forcing and high social vulnerability. SSP5&RCP8.5 represents a rapid development pathway and very high radiative forcing 38 .

Estimation of urban water scarcity

To estimate urban water scarcity, we quantified the total urban population living in water-scarce areas 2 , 3 , 7 , 19 . Specifically, we first corrected the spatial distribution of the global urban population, then identified water-scarce areas around the world, and finally quantified the urban population in water-scarce areas at different scales (Supplementary Fig.  1 ).

Correcting the spatial distribution of global urban population

The existing global urban population data from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) provided consistent information on historical and future population, but it has a coarse spatial resolution of 10 km (Supplementary Table  1 ) 40 , 41 . In addition, it was estimated using total population, urbanization levels, and urban population density, and does not align well with the actual distribution of urban land 42 . Hence, we allocated the HYDE global urban population data to high-resolution urban land data. We first obtained global urban land in 2016 from He et al. 42 . Since the scenarios used in existing urban land forecasts are now dated 43 , 44 , we simulated the spatial distribution of global urban land in 2050 under each SSP at a grid-cell resolution of 1km 2 using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model 45 , 46 , 47 (Supplementary Methods 1). The simulated urban expansion area in this study was significantly correlated with that in existing datasets (Supplementary Table  6 ). We then converted the global urban land raster layers for 2016 and 2050 into vector format to characterize the spatial extent of each city. The total population within each city was then summed and the remaining HYDE urban population cells located outside urban areas were allocated to the nearest city. Assuming that the population density within an urban area was homogeneous, we calculated the total population per square kilometer for all urban areas and converted this back to raster format at a spatial resolution of 1 km 2 . The new urban population data had much lower error than the original HYDE data (Supplementary Table  7 ).

Identification of global water-scarce areas

Annual and monthly WSI values were calculated at the catchment level in 2014 and 2050 as the ratio of water withdrawals (TWW) to availability (AWR) 33 . Due to limited data availability, we combined water-scarce areas in 2014 and the urban population in 2016 to estimate current urban water scarcity. WSI for catchment i for time t as:

For each catchment defined by Masutomi et al. 48 , the total water withdrawal (TWW t,i ) equalled the sum of water withdrawals (WW t , n , i ) for each sector n (irrigation, livestock, industrial, or domestic), while the water availability equalled the sum of available water resources for catchment i ( R t , i ), inflows/outflows of water resources due to interbasin water transfer ( \(\varDelta {{{{\mathrm{W{R}}}}}}_{t,i}\) ), and water resources from each upstream catchment j (WR t , i , j ):

The changes of water resources due to interbasin water transfer were calculated based on City Water Map produced by McDonald et al. 3 . The number of water resources from upstream catchment j was calculated based on its water availability (AWR t , i , j ) and water consumption for each sector n (WC t , n , i,j ) 49 :

For areas without upstream catchments, the number of available water resources was equal to the runoff. Following Mekonnen and Hoekstra 36 , and Hofste et al. 33 , we did not consider environmental flow requirements in calculating water availability.

Annual and monthly WSI for 2014 were calculated directly based on water withdrawal, water consumption, and runoff data from AQUEDUCT3.0 (Supplementary Table  1 ). The data from AQUEDUCT3.0 were selected because they are publicly available and the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCRGLOBWB 2) model used in the AQUADUCT 3.0 can better represent groundwater flow and available water resources in comparison with other global hydrologic models (e.g., the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) model) 33 . The annual and monthly WSI for 2050 were calculated by combining the global water withdrawal data from 2000 to 2050 provided by the National Institute of Environmental Research of Japan (NIER) 34 and global runoff data from 2005 to 2050 from CMIP6 (Supplementary Table  1 ). Water withdrawal \({{{{{\mathrm{W{W}}}}}}}_{s,m,n,i}^{2050}\) in 2050 for each sector n (irrigation, industrial, or domestic), catchment i , and month m under scenario s was calculated based on water withdrawal in 2014 ( \({{{{{\mathrm{W{W}}}}}}}_{m,n,i}^{2014}\) ):

adjusted by the mean annual change in water withdrawal from 2000 to 2050 (WWR s , m , n , i ), calculated using the global water withdrawal for 2000 ( \({{{{{\mathrm{W{W}}}}}}}_{{{{{\mathrm{NIER}}}}},m,n,i}^{2000}\) ) and 2050 ( \({{{{{\mathrm{W{W}}}}}}}_{{{{{\mathrm{NIER}}}}},s,m,n,i}^{2050}\) ) provided by the NIER 34 :

Based on the assumption of a constant ratio of water consumption to water withdrawal in each catchment, water consumption in 2050 ( \({{{{{\mathrm{W{C}}}}}}}_{s,m,n,i}^{2050}\) ) was calculated as:

where \({{{{{\mathrm{W{C}}}}}}}_{m,n,i}^{2014}\) denotes water consumption in 2014. Due to a lack of data, we specified that water withdrawal for livestock remained constant between 2014 and 2050, and used water withdrawal simulation under SSP3&RCP6.0 provided by the National Institute of Environmental Research in Japan to approximate SSP3&RCP7.0.

To estimate water availability, we calculated available water resources ( \({R}_{s,m,i}^{2041-2050}\) ) for each catchment i and month m under scenario s for the period of 2041–2050 as:

based on the amount of available water resources with 10-year ordinary least square regression from 2005 to 2014 ( \({R}_{m,i}^{{{{{\mathrm{ols}}}}},\,2005-2014}\) ) from AQUEDUCT3.0 (Supplementary Table  1 ). \({\overline{R}}_{m,i}^{2005-2014}\) and \({\overline{R}}_{s,m,i}^{2041-2050}\) denote the multi-year average of runoff (i.e., surface and subsurface) from 2005 to 2014, and from 2041 to 2050, respectively, calculated using the average values of simulation results from 10 global climate models (GCMs) (Supplementary Table  2 ).

We then identified water-scarce catchments based on the WSI. Two thresholds of 0.4 and 1.0 have been used to identify water-scarce areas from WSI (Supplementary Table  4 ). While the 0.4 threshold indicates high water stress 49 , the threshold of 1.0 has a clearer physical meaning, i.e., that water demand is equal to the available water supply and environmental flow requirements are not met 36 , 37 . We adopted the value of 1.0 as a threshold representing extreme water stress to identify water-scarce areas. The catchments with annual WSI >1.0 were identified as perennial water-scarce catchments; the catchments with annual WSI equal to or <1.0 and WSI for at least one month >1.0 were identified as seasonal water-scarce catchments.

Estimation of global urban water scarcity

Based on the corrected global urban population data and the identified water-scarce areas, we evaluated urban water scarcity at the global and national scales via a spatial overlay analysis. The urban population exposed to water scarcity in a region (e.g., the whole world or a single country) is equal to the sum of the urban population in perennial water-scarce areas and that in seasonal water-scarce areas. Limited by data availability, we used water-scarce areas in 2014 and the urban population in 2016 to estimate current urban water scarcity. Projected water-scarce areas and urban population in 2050 under four scenarios were then used to estimate future urban water scarcity. In addition, we obtained the location information of large cities (with population >1 million in 2016) from the United Nations’ World Urbanization Prospects 1 (Supplementary Table  1 ) and identified those in perennial and seasonal water-scarce areas.

Uncertainty analysis

To evaluate the uncertainty across the 10 GCMs used in this study (Supplementary Table  2 ), we identified water-scarce areas and estimated urban water scarcity using the simulated runoff from each GCM under four scenarios. To perform the uncertainty analysis, the runoff in 2050 for each GCM was calculated using the following equation:

where \({R}_{s,g,m,i}^{2050}\) denotes the runoff of catchment i in month m in 2050 for GCM g under scenario s . \({R}_{g,m,i}^{2005-2014}\) and \({R}_{s,g,m,i}^{2041-2050}\) denote the multi-year average runoff from 2005 to 2014, and from 2041 to 2050, respectively, calculated using the simulation results from GCM g . Using the runoff for each GCM, the WSI in 2050 for each catchment was recalculated, water-scarce areas were identified, and the urban population exposed to water scarcity was estimated.

Contribution analysis

Based on the approach used by McDonald et al. 2 and Munia et al. 50 , we quantified the contribution of socioeconomic factors (i.e., water demand and urban population) and climatic factors (i.e., water availability) to the changes in global urban water scarcity from 2016 to 2050. To assess the contribution of socioeconomic factors ( \({{{{{\mathrm{Co{n}}}}}}}_{s,{{{{\mathrm{SE}}}}}}\) ), we calculated global urban water scarcity in 2050 while varying demand and population and holding catchment runoff constant ( \({{{{{\mathrm{UW{S}}}}}}}_{s,{{{{\mathrm{SE}}}}}}^{2050}\) ). Conversely, to assess the contribution of climate change ( \(Co{n}_{s,CC}\) ), we calculated scarcity while varying runoff and holding urban population and water demand constant ( \({{{{{\mathrm{UW{S}}}}}}}_{s,{{{{\mathrm{CC}}}}}}^{2050}\) ). Socioeconomic and climatic contributions were then calculated as:

Feasibility analysis of potential solutions to urban water scarcity

Potential solutions to urban water scarcity involve two aspects: increasing water availability and reducing water demand 2 . Approaches to increasing water availability include groundwater exploitation, seawater desalination, reservoir construction, and inter-basin water transfer; while approaches to reduce water demand include water-use efficiency measures (e.g., new cultivars for improving agricultural water productivity, sprinkler or drip irrigation for improving water-use efficiency, water-recycling facilities for improving domestic and industrial water-use intensity), limiting population growth, and virtual water trade 2 , 3 , 18 , 32 . To find the best ways to address urban water scarcity, we assessed the feasibility of these potential solutions for each large city (Supplementary Fig.  2 ).

First, we divided these solutions into seven groups according to scenario settings and the scale of implementation of each solution (Supplementary Fig.  2 ). Among the solutions assessed, water-use efficiency improvement, limiting population growth, and climate change mitigation were included in the simulation of water demand and water availability under the ScenarioMIP SSPs&RCPs simulations 34 . Here, we considered the measures within SSP1&RCP2.6 which included the lowest growth in population, irrigated area, crop intensity, and greenhouse gas emissions; and the largest improvements in irrigation, industrial, and municipal water-use efficiency 34 .

We then evaluated the feasibility of the seven groups of solutions according to the characteristics of water-scarce cities (Supplementary Fig.  2 ). Of the 526 large cities (with population >1 million in 2016 according to the United Nations’ World Urbanization Prospects), we identified those facing perennial or seasonal water scarcity under at least one scenario by 2050. We then selected the cities that no longer faced water scarcity under SSP1&RCP2.6 where the internal scenario assumptions around water-use efficiency, population growth, and climate change were sufficient to mitigate water scarcity. Following McDonald et al. 2 , 3 and Wada et al. 18 , we assumed that desalination can be a potential solution for coastal cities (distance from coastline <100 km) and groundwater exploitation can be feasible for cities where the groundwater table has not significantly declined. For cities in catchments facing seasonal water scarcity and with suitable topography, reservoir construction was identified as a potential solution. Inter-basin water transfer was identified as a potential solution for a city if nearby basins (i.e., in the same country, <1000 km away [the distance of the longest water transfer project in the world]) were not subject to water scarcity and had sufficient water resources to address the water scarcity for the city. Domestic virtual water trade was identified as a potential solution for a city if it was located in a country without national scale water scarcity. International water transfer or virtual water trade was identified as a feasible solution for cities in middle and high-income countries. Based on the above assumptions, we identified potential solutions to water scarcity in each city (see Supplementary Table  1 for the data used).

Data availability

All the data created in this study are openly available and the download information of supplementary data can be found in Github repositories with the identifier https://github.com/zfliu-bnu/Urban-water-scarcity . Other data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Prof. N. Hanasaki (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan) and Dr. Rutger W. Hofste (World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA) for providing global water demand/availability data. This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0405) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41871185 & 41971270). It was also supported by the project from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, China.

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Chunyang He, Zhifeng Liu, Jianguo Wu, Xinhao Pan & Zihang Fang

School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

School of Life Sciences and School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences (SEGS), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China

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C.H., Z.L., J.W., and B.B. designed the study and planned the analysis. Z.L., X.P., Z.F., and J.L. did the data analysis. C.H., Z.L., and B.B. drafted the manuscript. All authors contributed to the interpretation of findings, provided revisions to the manuscript, and approved the final manuscript.

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He, C., Liu, Z., Wu, J. et al. Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions. Nat Commun 12 , 4667 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25026-3

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25026-3

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• Water scarcity

Addressing the growing lack of available water to meet children’s needs.

• WASH and climate change

Even in countries with adequate water resources, water scarcity is not uncommon. Although this may be due to a number of factors — collapsed infrastructure and distribution systems, contamination, conflict, or poor management of water resources — it is clear that climate change, as well as human factors, are increasingly denying children their right to safe water and sanitation.

Water scarcity limits access to safe water for drinking and for practising basic hygiene at home, in schools and in health-care facilities. When water is scarce, sewage systems can fail and the threat of contracting diseases like cholera surges. Scarce water also becomes more expensive.

Water scarcity takes a greater toll on women and children because they are often the ones responsible for collecting it. When water is further away, it requires more time to collect, which often means less time at school. Particularly for girls, a shortage of water in schools impacts student enrolment, attendance and performance. Carrying water long distances is also an enormous physical burden and can expose children to safety risks and exploitation.

• Four billion people — almost two thirds of the world’s population —  experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year.
• Over two billion people live in countries where water supply is inadequate.
• Half of the world’s population could be living in areas facing water scarcity by as early as 2025.
• Some 700 million people could be displaced by intense water scarcity by 2030.
• By 2040, roughly 1 in 4 children worldwide will be living in areas of extremely high water stress.

UNICEF’s response

As the factors driving water scarcity are complex and vary widely across countries and regions, UNICEF works at multiple levels to introduce context-specific technologies that increase access to safe water and address the impacts of water scarcity. We focus on:

Identifying new water resources : We assess the availability of water resources using various technologies, including remote sensing and geophysical surveys and field investigations.

Improving the efficiency of water resources : We rehabilitate urban water distribution networks and treatment systems to reduce water leakage and contamination, promoting wastewater reuse for agriculture to protect groundwater.

Planning for urban scarcity : We plan for future water needs by identifying available resources to reduce the risk of cities running out of water.

Expanding technologies to ensure climate resilience : We support and develop climate-resilient water sources, including the use of deeper groundwater reserves through solar-powered water networks. We also advance water storage through small-scale retention structures, managed aquifer recharge (where water is pumped into underground reserves to improve its quality), and rainwater harvesting.

Changing behaviours : We work with schools and communities to promote an understanding of the value of water and the importance of its protection, including by supporting environmental clubs in schools.

Planning national water needs : We work with key stakeholders at national and sub-national levels to understand the water requirements for domestic use and for health and sanitation, and advocate to ensure that this is reflected in national planning considerations.

Supporting the WASH sector : We develop technical guidance, manuals and online training programmes for WASH practitioners to improve standards for water access.

More from UNICEF

Water and the climate crisis: 10 things you should know

The world needs to get water smart. Everyone has a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait

The urgent need for a child-centred Loss and Damage Fund

The Loss and Damage Fund should put children’s voices at the heart of climate justice

Climate action for a climate-smart world

UNICEF and partners are monitoring, innovating and collaborating to tackle the climate crisis

Climate Crisis + Mental Health

Young people from Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates reflect on the links between the climate crisis and their mental health

Reimagining WASH: Water Security for All

Multi-tiered approaches to solving the water crisis in basra, iraq, increasing water security in gaza through seawater desalination, managed aquifer recharge (mar): protecting communities from saline intrusion of groundwater in costal areas of bangladesh, groundwater early warning system for the south of madagascar, combining manual drilling and solar energy to ensure drought resilience in mauritania, using gis and remote sensing to access water in the drought-prone areas of ethiopia and madagascar, multiples uses of water in madagascar: drinking water, agriculture and livestock, wash climate resilience – compendium of cases, thirsting for a future: water and children in a changing climate.

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Water Scarcity Essay

Essay On Water Scarcity - People require water for various purposes like cooking, cleaning, drinking, and washing, to name a few. Animals need water for their bodies to function, plants need water to pull nutrients from the soil and stay nourished, and people need water for all the reasons mentioned above. Here are 100, 200 and 500 word essays on Water Scarcity.

The lack of freshwater supplies to meet water demand is known as water scarcity. Most nations today have regulations protecting water quality and limiting water usage. Water nourishes not only the soil but also the human body. Nothing can flourish without water. Here are some sample essays on “Water Scarcity”.

100 Words Essay On Water Scarcity

All life forms on this planet require water to survive. Limited freshwater supplies to meet huge water demand is known as water shortage. The water cycle is the process through which the water that is present on earth evaporates, transforms into a vapour cloud, and then precipitates when cold weather develops.

We don't pay much attention to water because it is used and needed by humans and nature every year, yet considering this, water is simply life above and beyond the chemical component. Since the issue has gotten so bad, many states' groundwater supplies are nearly entirely depleted, forcing residents to rely on water from other sources.

200 Words Essay On Water Scarcity

More than 70% of our body weight is made up of water. For the body to function properly, water is necessary. Additionally, water makes up more than 70% of the surface of the world. We should drink water every day as it improves the functions and well-being of our bodies. Water is also required for basic necessities. Since fresh water is the only source of usable water, it is necessary for all everyday activities as well as for human health and the existence of all other living things.

Need For Water

A significant problem that affects nearly half of the world's population is the lack of availability of freshwater. Water scarcity has a variety of effects on human lives, just like climate change and global warming. It makes it harder for humans to live in various parts of the world.

Water is now a vital prerequisite for humankind to thrive on Earth, and this is without debate. Water is also one of the natural resources that we still misuse the most. Given the way things seem these days, humanity is undoubtedly to blame for its scarcity. The global water crisis cannot entirely be attributed to population growth. One of the leading causes of water scarcity is irresponsible water consumption.

500 Words Essay On Water Scarcity

Every human needs water to survive, yet in the World today, water scarcity is a severe problem that is spreading quickly. Although it is the focal point of our existence, it is regrettably not our first focus.

Causes Of Water Scarcity

The leading causes of water scarcity are poor water management and the world's expanding population. A variety of additional man-made problems are also on the rise. Some of such issues are man-made construction obstructing groundwater from being recharged naturally, excess use in agriculture and not having a general sense of awareness of how to use and prevent water pollution are some of the reasons.

Natural Causes Of Water Scarcity

Water scarcity is a result of climate change and global warming as well. One explanation for how salty water is growing daily instead of freshwater is the melting of icebergs into oceans due to the increase in temperatures. The frequency of rain has sharply declined recently. Freshwater bodies have been significantly impacted by climate change, as well as a drop in rainfall percentage.

Water use has multiplied as a result of the expanding population. The decline in water bodies and the rise in population primarily causes this scarcity. Another important factor is India's inadequate drainage and water management systems, particularly in metropolitan areas. To deliver water in urban areas, an effective water management system is necessary.

Well, In the end, altering how this problem is seen requires educating people to encourage new behaviours. All kinds of consumption, from personal use to

the distribution networks of large organisations will need to undergo significant change to adapt to the upcoming era of water shortage.

My Experience

I woke up to the sound of my alarm, feeling a sense of dread wash over me as I remembered the water scarcity situation in my town. It was around April or May, which are considered the hottest months in my town. For weeks, there had been a drought which was getting worse, and the water levels in our water storage had been steadily dropping.

As I dressed for the day, I couldn't help but worry about the future. Water was becoming increasingly scarce, and there didn't seem to be any end to the drought. I knew that it would only be a matter of time before water rationing was put into place, and the thought of standing in line for hours just to get a few gallons of water was enough to make my stomach turn.

It was hard to ignore the signs of the water crisis around me. Lawns were brown and withered, plants were dying, and the normally bustling streets were strangely quiet. As I made my way to school, I started thinking about ways to prevent water wastage and fight this water scarcity. This whole incident made me realise the importance of water in our lives.

The scarcity of freshwater is becoming a severe problem. If we do not address the issue of water scarcity today, future generations will suffer greatly and may even be forced to pay a heavy price for this basic necessity.

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Data Administrator

Database professionals use software to store and organise data such as financial information, and customer shipping records. Individuals who opt for a career as data administrators ensure that data is available for users and secured from unauthorised sales. DB administrators may work in various types of industries. It may involve computer systems design, service firms, insurance companies, banks and hospitals.

Bio Medical Engineer

The field of biomedical engineering opens up a universe of expert chances. An Individual in the biomedical engineering career path work in the field of engineering as well as medicine, in order to find out solutions to common problems of the two fields. The biomedical engineering job opportunities are to collaborate with doctors and researchers to develop medical systems, equipment, or devices that can solve clinical problems. Here we will be discussing jobs after biomedical engineering, how to get a job in biomedical engineering, biomedical engineering scope, and salary. 

Ethical Hacker

A career as ethical hacker involves various challenges and provides lucrative opportunities in the digital era where every giant business and startup owns its cyberspace on the world wide web. Individuals in the ethical hacker career path try to find the vulnerabilities in the cyber system to get its authority. If he or she succeeds in it then he or she gets its illegal authority. Individuals in the ethical hacker career path then steal information or delete the file that could affect the business, functioning, or services of the organization.

GIS officer work on various GIS software to conduct a study and gather spatial and non-spatial information. GIS experts update the GIS data and maintain it. The databases include aerial or satellite imagery, latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates, and manually digitized images of maps. In a career as GIS expert, one is responsible for creating online and mobile maps.

Data Analyst

The invention of the database has given fresh breath to the people involved in the data analytics career path. Analysis refers to splitting up a whole into its individual components for individual analysis. Data analysis is a method through which raw data are processed and transformed into information that would be beneficial for user strategic thinking.

Data are collected and examined to respond to questions, evaluate hypotheses or contradict theories. It is a tool for analyzing, transforming, modeling, and arranging data with useful knowledge, to assist in decision-making and methods, encompassing various strategies, and is used in different fields of business, research, and social science.

Geothermal Engineer

Individuals who opt for a career as geothermal engineers are the professionals involved in the processing of geothermal energy. The responsibilities of geothermal engineers may vary depending on the workplace location. Those who work in fields design facilities to process and distribute geothermal energy. They oversee the functioning of machinery used in the field.

Database Architect

If you are intrigued by the programming world and are interested in developing communications networks then a career as database architect may be a good option for you. Data architect roles and responsibilities include building design models for data communication networks. Wide Area Networks (WANs), local area networks (LANs), and intranets are included in the database networks. It is expected that database architects will have in-depth knowledge of a company's business to develop a network to fulfil the requirements of the organisation. Stay tuned as we look at the larger picture and give you more information on what is db architecture, why you should pursue database architecture, what to expect from such a degree and what your job opportunities will be after graduation. Here, we will be discussing how to become a data architect. Students can visit NIT Trichy , IIT Kharagpur , JMI New Delhi . 

Remote Sensing Technician

Individuals who opt for a career as a remote sensing technician possess unique personalities. Remote sensing analysts seem to be rational human beings, they are strong, independent, persistent, sincere, realistic and resourceful. Some of them are analytical as well, which means they are intelligent, introspective and inquisitive. 

Remote sensing scientists use remote sensing technology to support scientists in fields such as community planning, flight planning or the management of natural resources. Analysing data collected from aircraft, satellites or ground-based platforms using statistical analysis software, image analysis software or Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a significant part of their work. Do you want to learn how to become remote sensing technician? There's no need to be concerned; we've devised a simple remote sensing technician career path for you. Scroll through the pages and read.

Budget Analyst

Budget analysis, in a nutshell, entails thoroughly analyzing the details of a financial budget. The budget analysis aims to better understand and manage revenue. Budget analysts assist in the achievement of financial targets, the preservation of profitability, and the pursuit of long-term growth for a business. Budget analysts generally have a bachelor's degree in accounting, finance, economics, or a closely related field. Knowledge of Financial Management is of prime importance in this career.

Underwriter

An underwriter is a person who assesses and evaluates the risk of insurance in his or her field like mortgage, loan, health policy, investment, and so on and so forth. The underwriter career path does involve risks as analysing the risks means finding out if there is a way for the insurance underwriter jobs to recover the money from its clients. If the risk turns out to be too much for the company then in the future it is an underwriter who will be held accountable for it. Therefore, one must carry out his or her job with a lot of attention and diligence.

Finance Executive

Product manager.

A Product Manager is a professional responsible for product planning and marketing. He or she manages the product throughout the Product Life Cycle, gathering and prioritising the product. A product manager job description includes defining the product vision and working closely with team members of other departments to deliver winning products.  

Operations Manager

Individuals in the operations manager jobs are responsible for ensuring the efficiency of each department to acquire its optimal goal. They plan the use of resources and distribution of materials. The operations manager's job description includes managing budgets, negotiating contracts, and performing administrative tasks.

Stock Analyst

Individuals who opt for a career as a stock analyst examine the company's investments makes decisions and keep track of financial securities. The nature of such investments will differ from one business to the next. Individuals in the stock analyst career use data mining to forecast a company's profits and revenues, advise clients on whether to buy or sell, participate in seminars, and discussing financial matters with executives and evaluate annual reports.

A Researcher is a professional who is responsible for collecting data and information by reviewing the literature and conducting experiments and surveys. He or she uses various methodological processes to provide accurate data and information that is utilised by academicians and other industry professionals. Here, we will discuss what is a researcher, the researcher's salary, types of researchers.

Welding Engineer

Welding Engineer Job Description: A Welding Engineer work involves managing welding projects and supervising welding teams. He or she is responsible for reviewing welding procedures, processes and documentation. A career as Welding Engineer involves conducting failure analyses and causes on welding issues. 

Transportation Planner

A career as Transportation Planner requires technical application of science and technology in engineering, particularly the concepts, equipment and technologies involved in the production of products and services. In fields like land use, infrastructure review, ecological standards and street design, he or she considers issues of health, environment and performance. A Transportation Planner assigns resources for implementing and designing programmes. He or she is responsible for assessing needs, preparing plans and forecasts and compliance with regulations.

Environmental Engineer

Individuals who opt for a career as an environmental engineer are construction professionals who utilise the skills and knowledge of biology, soil science, chemistry and the concept of engineering to design and develop projects that serve as solutions to various environmental problems. 

Safety Manager

A Safety Manager is a professional responsible for employee’s safety at work. He or she plans, implements and oversees the company’s employee safety. A Safety Manager ensures compliance and adherence to Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) guidelines.

Conservation Architect

A Conservation Architect is a professional responsible for conserving and restoring buildings or monuments having a historic value. He or she applies techniques to document and stabilise the object’s state without any further damage. A Conservation Architect restores the monuments and heritage buildings to bring them back to their original state.

Structural Engineer

A Structural Engineer designs buildings, bridges, and other related structures. He or she analyzes the structures and makes sure the structures are strong enough to be used by the people. A career as a Structural Engineer requires working in the construction process. It comes under the civil engineering discipline. A Structure Engineer creates structural models with the help of computer-aided design software. 

Highway Engineer

Highway Engineer Job Description:  A Highway Engineer is a civil engineer who specialises in planning and building thousands of miles of roads that support connectivity and allow transportation across the country. He or she ensures that traffic management schemes are effectively planned concerning economic sustainability and successful implementation.

Field Surveyor

Are you searching for a Field Surveyor Job Description? A Field Surveyor is a professional responsible for conducting field surveys for various places or geographical conditions. He or she collects the required data and information as per the instructions given by senior officials. 

Orthotist and Prosthetist

Orthotists and Prosthetists are professionals who provide aid to patients with disabilities. They fix them to artificial limbs (prosthetics) and help them to regain stability. There are times when people lose their limbs in an accident. In some other occasions, they are born without a limb or orthopaedic impairment. Orthotists and prosthetists play a crucial role in their lives with fixing them to assistive devices and provide mobility.

Pathologist

A career in pathology in India is filled with several responsibilities as it is a medical branch and affects human lives. The demand for pathologists has been increasing over the past few years as people are getting more aware of different diseases. Not only that, but an increase in population and lifestyle changes have also contributed to the increase in a pathologist’s demand. The pathology careers provide an extremely huge number of opportunities and if you want to be a part of the medical field you can consider being a pathologist. If you want to know more about a career in pathology in India then continue reading this article.

Veterinary Doctor

Speech therapist, gynaecologist.

Gynaecology can be defined as the study of the female body. The job outlook for gynaecology is excellent since there is evergreen demand for one because of their responsibility of dealing with not only women’s health but also fertility and pregnancy issues. Although most women prefer to have a women obstetrician gynaecologist as their doctor, men also explore a career as a gynaecologist and there are ample amounts of male doctors in the field who are gynaecologists and aid women during delivery and childbirth. 

Audiologist

The audiologist career involves audiology professionals who are responsible to treat hearing loss and proactively preventing the relevant damage. Individuals who opt for a career as an audiologist use various testing strategies with the aim to determine if someone has a normal sensitivity to sounds or not. After the identification of hearing loss, a hearing doctor is required to determine which sections of the hearing are affected, to what extent they are affected, and where the wound causing the hearing loss is found. As soon as the hearing loss is identified, the patients are provided with recommendations for interventions and rehabilitation such as hearing aids, cochlear implants, and appropriate medical referrals. While audiology is a branch of science that studies and researches hearing, balance, and related disorders.

An oncologist is a specialised doctor responsible for providing medical care to patients diagnosed with cancer. He or she uses several therapies to control the cancer and its effect on the human body such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, radiation therapy and biopsy. An oncologist designs a treatment plan based on a pathology report after diagnosing the type of cancer and where it is spreading inside the body.

Are you searching for an ‘Anatomist job description’? An Anatomist is a research professional who applies the laws of biological science to determine the ability of bodies of various living organisms including animals and humans to regenerate the damaged or destroyed organs. If you want to know what does an anatomist do, then read the entire article, where we will answer all your questions.

For an individual who opts for a career as an actor, the primary responsibility is to completely speak to the character he or she is playing and to persuade the crowd that the character is genuine by connecting with them and bringing them into the story. This applies to significant roles and littler parts, as all roles join to make an effective creation. Here in this article, we will discuss how to become an actor in India, actor exams, actor salary in India, and actor jobs. 

Individuals who opt for a career as acrobats create and direct original routines for themselves, in addition to developing interpretations of existing routines. The work of circus acrobats can be seen in a variety of performance settings, including circus, reality shows, sports events like the Olympics, movies and commercials. Individuals who opt for a career as acrobats must be prepared to face rejections and intermittent periods of work. The creativity of acrobats may extend to other aspects of the performance. For example, acrobats in the circus may work with gym trainers, celebrities or collaborate with other professionals to enhance such performance elements as costume and or maybe at the teaching end of the career.

Video Game Designer

Career as a video game designer is filled with excitement as well as responsibilities. A video game designer is someone who is involved in the process of creating a game from day one. He or she is responsible for fulfilling duties like designing the character of the game, the several levels involved, plot, art and similar other elements. Individuals who opt for a career as a video game designer may also write the codes for the game using different programming languages.

Depending on the video game designer job description and experience they may also have to lead a team and do the early testing of the game in order to suggest changes and find loopholes.

Radio Jockey

Radio Jockey is an exciting, promising career and a great challenge for music lovers. If you are really interested in a career as radio jockey, then it is very important for an RJ to have an automatic, fun, and friendly personality. If you want to get a job done in this field, a strong command of the language and a good voice are always good things. Apart from this, in order to be a good radio jockey, you will also listen to good radio jockeys so that you can understand their style and later make your own by practicing.

A career as radio jockey has a lot to offer to deserving candidates. If you want to know more about a career as radio jockey, and how to become a radio jockey then continue reading the article.

Choreographer

The word “choreography" actually comes from Greek words that mean “dance writing." Individuals who opt for a career as a choreographer create and direct original dances, in addition to developing interpretations of existing dances. A Choreographer dances and utilises his or her creativity in other aspects of dance performance. For example, he or she may work with the music director to select music or collaborate with other famous choreographers to enhance such performance elements as lighting, costume and set design.

Social Media Manager

A career as social media manager involves implementing the company’s or brand’s marketing plan across all social media channels. Social media managers help in building or improving a brand’s or a company’s website traffic, build brand awareness, create and implement marketing and brand strategy. Social media managers are key to important social communication as well.

Photographer

Photography is considered both a science and an art, an artistic means of expression in which the camera replaces the pen. In a career as a photographer, an individual is hired to capture the moments of public and private events, such as press conferences or weddings, or may also work inside a studio, where people go to get their picture clicked. Photography is divided into many streams each generating numerous career opportunities in photography. With the boom in advertising, media, and the fashion industry, photography has emerged as a lucrative and thrilling career option for many Indian youths.

An individual who is pursuing a career as a producer is responsible for managing the business aspects of production. They are involved in each aspect of production from its inception to deception. Famous movie producers review the script, recommend changes and visualise the story. 

They are responsible for overseeing the finance involved in the project and distributing the film for broadcasting on various platforms. A career as a producer is quite fulfilling as well as exhaustive in terms of playing different roles in order for a production to be successful. Famous movie producers are responsible for hiring creative and technical personnel on contract basis.

Copy Writer

In a career as a copywriter, one has to consult with the client and understand the brief well. A career as a copywriter has a lot to offer to deserving candidates. Several new mediums of advertising are opening therefore making it a lucrative career choice. Students can pursue various copywriter courses such as Journalism , Advertising , Marketing Management . Here, we have discussed how to become a freelance copywriter, copywriter career path, how to become a copywriter in India, and copywriting career outlook. 

In a career as a vlogger, one generally works for himself or herself. However, once an individual has gained viewership there are several brands and companies that approach them for paid collaboration. It is one of those fields where an individual can earn well while following his or her passion. 

Ever since internet costs got reduced the viewership for these types of content has increased on a large scale. Therefore, a career as a vlogger has a lot to offer. If you want to know more about the Vlogger eligibility, roles and responsibilities then continue reading the article. 

For publishing books, newspapers, magazines and digital material, editorial and commercial strategies are set by publishers. Individuals in publishing career paths make choices about the markets their businesses will reach and the type of content that their audience will be served. Individuals in book publisher careers collaborate with editorial staff, designers, authors, and freelance contributors who develop and manage the creation of content.

Careers in journalism are filled with excitement as well as responsibilities. One cannot afford to miss out on the details. As it is the small details that provide insights into a story. Depending on those insights a journalist goes about writing a news article. A journalism career can be stressful at times but if you are someone who is passionate about it then it is the right choice for you. If you want to know more about the media field and journalist career then continue reading this article.

Individuals in the editor career path is an unsung hero of the news industry who polishes the language of the news stories provided by stringers, reporters, copywriters and content writers and also news agencies. Individuals who opt for a career as an editor make it more persuasive, concise and clear for readers. In this article, we will discuss the details of the editor's career path such as how to become an editor in India, editor salary in India and editor skills and qualities.

Individuals who opt for a career as a reporter may often be at work on national holidays and festivities. He or she pitches various story ideas and covers news stories in risky situations. Students can pursue a BMC (Bachelor of Mass Communication) , B.M.M. (Bachelor of Mass Media) , or  MAJMC (MA in Journalism and Mass Communication) to become a reporter. While we sit at home reporters travel to locations to collect information that carries a news value.  

Corporate Executive

Are you searching for a Corporate Executive job description? A Corporate Executive role comes with administrative duties. He or she provides support to the leadership of the organisation. A Corporate Executive fulfils the business purpose and ensures its financial stability. In this article, we are going to discuss how to become corporate executive.

Multimedia Specialist

A multimedia specialist is a media professional who creates, audio, videos, graphic image files, computer animations for multimedia applications. He or she is responsible for planning, producing, and maintaining websites and applications. 

Quality Controller

A quality controller plays a crucial role in an organisation. He or she is responsible for performing quality checks on manufactured products. He or she identifies the defects in a product and rejects the product. 

A quality controller records detailed information about products with defects and sends it to the supervisor or plant manager to take necessary actions to improve the production process.

Production Manager

A QA Lead is in charge of the QA Team. The role of QA Lead comes with the responsibility of assessing services and products in order to determine that he or she meets the quality standards. He or she develops, implements and manages test plans. 

Process Development Engineer

The Process Development Engineers design, implement, manufacture, mine, and other production systems using technical knowledge and expertise in the industry. They use computer modeling software to test technologies and machinery. An individual who is opting career as Process Development Engineer is responsible for developing cost-effective and efficient processes. They also monitor the production process and ensure it functions smoothly and efficiently.

AWS Solution Architect

An AWS Solution Architect is someone who specializes in developing and implementing cloud computing systems. He or she has a good understanding of the various aspects of cloud computing and can confidently deploy and manage their systems. He or she troubleshoots the issues and evaluates the risk from the third party. 

Azure Administrator

An Azure Administrator is a professional responsible for implementing, monitoring, and maintaining Azure Solutions. He or she manages cloud infrastructure service instances and various cloud servers as well as sets up public and private cloud systems. 

Computer Programmer

Careers in computer programming primarily refer to the systematic act of writing code and moreover include wider computer science areas. The word 'programmer' or 'coder' has entered into practice with the growing number of newly self-taught tech enthusiasts. Computer programming careers involve the use of designs created by software developers and engineers and transforming them into commands that can be implemented by computers. These commands result in regular usage of social media sites, word-processing applications and browsers.

Information Security Manager

Individuals in the information security manager career path involves in overseeing and controlling all aspects of computer security. The IT security manager job description includes planning and carrying out security measures to protect the business data and information from corruption, theft, unauthorised access, and deliberate attack 

ITSM Manager

Automation test engineer.

An Automation Test Engineer job involves executing automated test scripts. He or she identifies the project’s problems and troubleshoots them. The role involves documenting the defect using management tools. He or she works with the application team in order to resolve any issues arising during the testing process. 

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Essay on Water Scarcity 500+ Words

Water, a source of life and a symbol of purity, is a resource that we often take for granted. However, water scarcity is a growing global crisis that demands our attention. In this essay, we will explore the pressing issue of water scarcity, its causes and consequences, and the urgent need for sustainable solutions.

Understanding Water Scarcity

Water scarcity occurs when there is not enough clean, fresh water to meet the needs of a population. It is a complex issue influenced by factors like climate change, population growth, and mismanagement of water resources. According to the United Nations, over 2 billion people around the world already face water scarcity, and this number is expected to rise.

Causes of Water Scarcity

a. Climate Change : Changing weather patterns, including droughts and extreme heat, are disrupting water sources, making them less reliable.

b. Overpopulation : The world’s population is growing rapidly, leading to increased water demand for drinking, agriculture, and industry.

c. Pollution : Pollution from chemicals, sewage, and industrial waste contaminates water sources, making them unusable.

d. Wasteful Practices : Water wastage in agriculture, industry, and households contributes to scarcity.

Consequences of Water Scarcity

a. Health Issues : Lack of clean water can lead to waterborne diseases like cholera and dysentery, affecting millions, especially children.

b. Food Insecurity : Agriculture relies heavily on water, and water scarcity can lead to crop failures and food shortages.

c. Conflict : Water scarcity can trigger conflicts between communities and even nations fighting over limited water resources.

d. Ecosystem Damage : Wildlife and ecosystems suffer as water sources shrink, impacting biodiversity.

Solutions to Water Scarcity

a. Water Conservation : Simple steps like fixing leaks, using water-saving appliances, and practicing responsible water use at home can make a significant difference.

b. Improved Infrastructure : Building and maintaining water supply and sanitation systems can help reduce water losses.

c. Rainwater Harvesting : Collecting rainwater for household use and agriculture can help mitigate scarcity.

d. Desalination : Technology to turn seawater into freshwater is an option for regions with limited freshwater sources.

The Role of Education

Education plays a crucial role in raising awareness about water scarcity. Schools and communities can educate people about responsible water use and the importance of conservation. Students can become water ambassadors, spreading the message about the need to protect our water resources.

Global Efforts to Combat Water Scarcity

International organizations like the United Nations and NGOs are working to address water scarcity on a global scale. They provide funding, expertise, and resources to implement sustainable water management practices in affected regions. Collaboration between countries and communities is key to finding solutions.

Conclusion of Essay on Water Scarcity

In conclusion, water scarcity is a pressing global issue that affects people, ecosystems, and economies. Understanding its causes and consequences is the first step in finding solutions. It is essential for individuals, communities, and governments to take action by conserving water, improving infrastructure, and supporting sustainable practices. Education and global cooperation are vital in our fight against water scarcity. By working together, we can ensure that future generations have access to the life-sustaining resource of clean, fresh water. Water is precious, and its conservation is our collective responsibility.

Also Check: The Essay on Essay: All you need to know

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The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability

1 Water & Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, Espoo, Finlan, d

J. H. A. Guillaume

2 National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training & Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Australia

3 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

4 Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Germany

M. Flörke

5 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Germany

T. I. E. Veldkamp

Associated data.

Water scarcity is a rapidly growing concern around the globe, but little is known about how it has developed over time. This study provides a first assessment of continuous sub-national trajectories of blue water consumption, renewable freshwater availability, and water scarcity for the entire 20 th century. Water scarcity is analysed using the fundamental concepts of shortage (impacts due to low availability per capita) and stress (impacts due to high consumption relative to availability) which indicate difficulties in satisfying the needs of a population and overuse of resources respectively. While water consumption increased fourfold within the study period, the population under water scarcity increased from 0.24 billion (14% of global population) in the 1900s to 3.8 billion (58%) in the 2000s. Nearly all sub-national trajectories show an increasing trend in water scarcity. The concept of scarcity trajectory archetypes and shapes is introduced to characterize the historical development of water scarcity and suggest measures for alleviating water scarcity and increasing sustainability. Linking the scarcity trajectories to other datasets may help further deepen understanding of how trajectories relate to historical and future drivers, and hence help tackle these evolving challenges.

The overexploitation of freshwater resources threatens food security and the overall wellbeing of humankind in many parts of the world 1 . The maximum global potential for consumptive freshwater use (i.e. freshwater planetary boundary) 2 , 3 is approaching rapidly 4 , regardless of the estimate used. Due to increasing population pressure, changing water consumption behaviour, and climate change, the challenge of keeping water consumption at sustainable levels is projected to become even more difficult in the near future 5 , 6 .

Although many studies have increased the understanding of current blue water scarcity 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , and how this may increase in the future 5 , 6 , 15 , the historical development of water scarcity is less well understood 10 . Trajectories of these past changes at the global scale could be used to identify patterns of change, to provide a basis for addressing future challenges, and to highlight the similarities and differences in water scarcity problems that humanity shares around the world. This requires crossing scales, performing analyses globally, but at a sub-national resolution. Identifying recurring patterns of change can further provide evidence of key drivers of scarcity and thus help to recognise types of problems and solutions. Understanding what has occurred previously can thus help us to avoid repeating mistakes and to build on past successes.

Like other forms of scarcity, physical blue water scarcity can be fundamentally divided into two aspects: shortage and stress. Water shortage refers to the impact of low water availability per person. In “crowded” conditions, when a large population has to depend on limited resources, the capacity of the resource might become insufficient to satisfy otherwise small marginal demands, such as dilution of pollutants in a water body, and competition may result in disputes 16 . Given a resource and per capita requirements, water shortage can therefore be seen as population-driven scarcity. Water stress refers to the impact of high water use (either withdrawals or consumption) relative to water availability. Use of a large portion of a resource 1 , 13 might lead to difficulties in accessing the resource, including side effects 16 , e.g. social and environmental impacts. Stress can be seen as demand-driven scarcity, potentially occurring even if the population is not large enough to cause shortage.

These two aspects have commonly been assessed in isolation from each other 7 , 10 , despite being combined in the seminal work on water scarcity by Falkenmark 1 , 16 , 17 , as well as some later works 15 , 18 . Indeed, the indicators of water shortage and stress are fundamentally related through per capita water use, and therefore provide a more complete picture when used together:

There are, however, multiple ways each of the terms can be defined, yielding different families of indicators for shortage and stress. For example, use can refer to consumption or withdrawals. Availability might refer to water from different sources, of different quality, or at decadal, annual or seasonal time scales. The population in question might be that which is dependent on a resource, which is physically located within a region, or only that which has access to the resource.

Given the complexity of the impacts, these are clearly crude indicators of actual impacts involved in stress and shortage. There is substantial uncertainty in determining at what value of the stress and shortage indicators, stress and shortage impacts actually occur. Even when justified thresholds are selected, the value of the indicator is typically also reported, so that the reader can form their own opinion of whether stress and shortage have really occurred.

Despite their high level of abstraction, and the multiple ways in which they can be used, the concepts of shortage and stress and their defining indicators are central to understanding the development of scarcity over time. Therefore, they provide an obvious first step in analysing trajectories of past changes.

This paper first explores how water consumption has evolved globally over the entire 20 th century. The analysis uses recently released spatially explicit data for the entire past century on socio-economic development 19 and irrigation 20 , which allow us to assess past water consumption trends in greater detail, using the WaterGAP2 hydrological and water use models 19 , 21 (see Methods). This evolution is put into context by assessment of water scarcity based on the concepts of shortage, stress and per-capita consumption, structured graphically using a Falkenmark matrix 1 , 16 , 17 . Archetypes and shapes of the trajectories are introduced as new concepts to characterize the historical development of water scarcity in regions, and hence to assess the effectiveness of potential alleviation strategies and define pathways towards sustainability.

The version of the shortage and stress indicators we use consider decadal scale water availability and consumption at sub-national scales. They therefore capture the effect of long term sub-national water scarcity, but not the seasonal variation in demand and supply, inter-annual variability or sub-regional variation. We focus on physical blue water scarcity, meaning that issues of access are omitted, and emphasis is on water in lakes, rivers and renewable groundwater rather than “green” water, soil water from precipitation directly used by plants, or non-renewable fossil groundwater. Moderate (high) shortage is deemed to occur when total water availability drops below a requirement of 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 , (1000 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ) 1 , 7 . Moderate (high) stress is deemed to occur when more than 20% (40%) of available water is consumed 1 . The stress threshold was originally applied to water withdrawals but is used here for water consumption to account for substantial return flows that are still available for downstream users 22 , 23 . The focus on consumption also means that water degradation caused by return flows is not considered as part of stress, though it is still (indirectly) captured through population-driven pollutant load as part of shortage.

This study’s findings show a nearly 16-time increase in population under water scarcity since the 1900s although total population increased only 4-fold over the same time period. Per capita water consumption only shows a slight and irregular increase over the past century, while the expansion of water scarcity is predominantly explained by the effects of spatial distribution of population growth relative to water resources.

Water consumption

The global population has almost quadrupled over the past hundred years, and it reached 6.5 billion in the last time step of the study period, i.e. the 2000s (given decadal results are averages over specified decades, in this case 2001–2010) 24 . Over the same period, annual consumptive blue water use per capita (see Methods for details) increased only from 209 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 in the 1900s (i.e., 1901–1910) to 230 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 in the 2000s, with some variation between decades and a maximum of 256 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 in the 1960s ( Fig. 1B ). The increases in population and per capita water consumption resulted in a total water consumption increase from 358 km 3 yr −1 in the 1900s to 1500 km 3 yr −1 in the 2000s ( Fig. 1B ).

Regional ( A ) and global ( B ) consumptive water use trends over the 20 th century. The filled area represents per capita water consumption trends while the dashed line represents the total water consumption trends. The per capita consumption is divided into different water use sectors. The trend in per capita consumption at the FPU scale is shown as a background. [Adobe Illustrator CS5, ArcGIS 9.2 and Matlab 2015b softwares were used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html , http://www.esri.com , and http://www.mathworks.com ].

The trends of water consumption over the 20 th century were not, however, similar across the globe ( Fig. 1A ). The consumption per capita seems to have remained rather stable in many regions, such as Southern Africa and South America, but declined in the Middle East (since the 1950s), Northern Africa and South Asia. However, per capita consumption increased rapidly in Australia-Pacific, being over 6-fold greater in the 2000s compared to the 1900s. Increases were also found in Eastern Europe & Central Asia (until the 1990s) and Western Europe, although less rapid.

At the FPU (i.e., food production unit; see Methods) scale, this dataset shows that trends in per capita water consumption also varied significantly within the regions ( Fig. 1A ). A good example is North America, where the west coast experienced a decreasing trend while on the east coast, water consumption per capita increased. Of the world population, 46%, 25% and 29% live in FPUs where per capita consumption respectively increased, decreased, or showed no statistically significant trend over time (two-sided p -value > 0.05 with the Mann-Kendall test).

Although the trend in per capita water consumption varied between regions, total water consumption increased in all regions due to increased population except in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where the total consumption decreased slightly (~7%) since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 ( Fig. 1A ). Growth was greatest in Australia-Pacific (30-fold increase) followed by Central America, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia (approximately eight-fold). In a number of regions, consumption increased 3–4 fold, with the lowest increase in Northern Africa with about a three-fold increase.

Globally, irrigation was by far the largest water consumer over the entire study period, with a share ranging over time between 90–94% of global water consumption ( Supplementary Fig. 1B ). It had the largest share in South Asia (96–98%) due to extensive rice cultivation, and in the Middle East (97–99%) due to arid conditions 20 . In Western Europe, the irrigation share of total water consumption was lowest (62–74%), as it includes areas where irrigation is not extensively practiced for food production. Moreover, the economy is more industrialised than, for example, in Asia. Globally, the second largest sector until the 1990s was domestic water consumption. However, this was surpassed by industrial water consumption in the final time step (2000s; domestic 3.7%, industrial 4.3%). A second notable global trend is the emergence of water consumption due to thermal electricity production (~1% share). Regionally, results show larger changes in the shares of different sectors, though the real-world significance of the changes is difficult to judge. In some areas (e.g. Western Europe, Australia/Pacific), the proportion of water consumption used for irrigation has increased and the proportion for domestic consumption has decreased. The opposite has occurred in other areas (e.g. North America, Supplementary Fig. 1A ).

Global and regional water scarcity

Despite only small variations in per capita water consumption over time ( Fig. 1A ), rapidly expanding local populations and increases in total water consumption resulted in a nearly 16-fold overall increase in the population under water scarcity within the 20 th century ( Figs 2 and ​ and 3). 3 ). Whilst in the 1900s just over 200 million people (14% of global population) lived in areas under some degree of water scarcity, this number increased to over two billion by the 1980s (42%), and reached 3.8 billion people (58%) by the 2000s ( Table 1 ; Fig. 2B ).

Regional ( A ) and global ( B ) water scarcity trajectories. Filled graphs represent the absolute population under water scarcity (in billions) while dashed lines represent the population relative to total regional population. M WStr refers to moderate water stress, H WStr to high water stress, M WSh to moderate water shortage, and H WSh to high water shortage. See definitions of these different water scarcity dimensions, and their combinations, in Table 1 and Fig. 4A . [Adobe Illustrator CS5, ArcGIS 9.2 and Matlab 2015b softwares were used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html , http://www.esri.com , and http://www.mathworks.com ].

Mapped water scarcity categories for years 1905 ( A ), 1935 ( B ), 1965 ( C ), 1985 ( D ), and 2005 ( E ). The definition for each scarcity category is given in Table 1 and Fig. 4A . [Adobe Illustrator CS5 and ArcGIS 9.2 softwares were used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html , http://www.esri.com ].

M WStr refers to moderate water stress, H WStr to high water stress, M WSh to moderate water shortage and H WSh to high water shortage. See matrix of the scarcity classes in Fig. 4A .

In the 2000s, roughly half of the people under water scarcity suffered either moderate water shortage or moderate water stress ( Table 1 ), while the other half lived in areas facing both water stress and water shortage. Of these, 1.1 billion people (17% of global population) lived in areas facing both high water shortage and high water stress ( Table 1 ; Fig. 2B ). Most of these people lived in South and East Asia, North Africa and Middle East ( Fig. 2A ), with 61–89% of the population under water scarcity. The regions with the lowest proportion of population under water scarcity were Australia-Pacific, South America, North America, and Southeast Asia (7–29%, Fig. 2A ). Around a half of the population under water scarcity in the 2000s suffered water shortage alone, without water stress ( Table 1 ; Fig. 2B ). These areas are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, Europe, and South and East Asia ( Figs 2A and ​ and3E). 3E ). A small part of the population (2%) suffered water stress alone ( Table 1 ), occurring mostly in North America, Middle East, and Australia ( Fig. 3E ).

A global water scarcity trend-plot ( Fig. 2B ) reveals that the population under water shortage, or a combination of high water stress and water shortage, has increased rapidly since the 1960s, while water stress alone has remained rather low over the entire study period. There are, however, differences in regional trajectories ( Fig. 2A ), indicating that, for example, in the Middle East, Northern Africa and North America, scarcity has developed gradually over the whole study period while in many other regions (e.g. Central America, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia) there has been a steep increase in scarcity trend since the 1960s.

Different FPUs show distinct population dynamics, climate patterns, and developments of water consumption per capita. An FPU’s long-term water scarcity trajectory over time is visualised using the Falkenmark matrix 16 ( Fig. 4 ) that distinguishes between population-driven water shortage and demand-driven water stress, and highlights the relationship with per capita consumption using superimposed diagonal lines. Drivers and adaptation strategies are strongly dependent on the level and type of water scarcity an FPU is experiencing ( Fig. 4B ). As defined in Table 2 and discussed below, the notions of archetypes and shapes help to make sense of these trajectories. The archetype refers to the positioning within the Falkenmark matrix ( Fig. 5 ), whilst shape ( Fig. 6 ) refers to the direction of change over time.

( A ) the water scarcity categories; and ( B ) Drivers and alleviation measures. The diagonal lines in tile B refer to per capita consumption isolines. [Adobe Illustrator CS5 –software was used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html ].

FPU water scarcity trajectories by scarcity archetypes in a map ( A ) and within the Falkenmark matrix ( B–G ). Archetypes categorise FPUs according to their water scarcity status (corresponding to position on the plot) and where both shortage and stress occur, according to which occurs first (which is related to the level of per capita consumption). The trajectories are grouped based on irrigation zone 20 they are located in. See Table 2A for definitions and Supplementary Table 2 for percentage of population in each archetype – irrigation zone combination. Note: only FPUs with more than one million people are included. [Adobe Illustrator CS5 and R studio softwares were used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html , https://www.rstudio.com ].

( A and B ) FPU shapes shown as map, separated according to whether scarcity has been experienced ( B ) or not ( A ). ( C ) Examples of shapes of FPU water scarcity trajectories. The diagonal lines refer to per capita consumption isolines and numbers to FPUs (location indicated in tile B ). See Table 2B for definition of each shape category and Supplementary Fig. 2 for each FPU trajectory categorised by their shape. [Adobe Illustrator CS5 and R studio softwares were used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html , https://www.rstudio.com ].

* Trajectories are characterised in two different ways.

+ Trajectories are assigned to the first applicable category.

FPU water scarcity trajectories: archetypes

The concept of water scarcity trajectory archetypes captures issues related to water scarcity status and per capita consumption. Trajectory archetypes are thus also useful to identify possible adaptation measures in an FPU. Their definitions are summarised in Table 2A while Fig. 5 maps the regions belonging to each archetype, and displays their trajectories. Each archetype is discussed further below.

The archetypes stress alone or stress first (before shortage) are experienced if per capita consumption is high ( Fig. 5F,G ), such that scarcity is demand-driven. FPUs in this category would thus benefit most from demand-side oriented adaptation strategies. The archetypes shortage alone or shortage first ( Fig. 5C,D ) are experienced if per capita consumption is low, such that scarcity is population-driven. This calls for supply-side adaptation strategies in particular. This division of adaptation strategies also corresponds to a distinction between ‘soft’ behaviour-change and ‘hard’ infrastructure-based solutions, respectively 1 , 17 , 25 , 26 ( Supplementary Table 1 ).

Specifically, using a threshold of stress of 20% and a per capita water availability (shortage) threshold of 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 , the switch-over point between stress first and shortage first occurs at a per capita consumption of 340 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ( Fig. 5A–F ; Methods). The stress and shortage at same time archetype is a borderline case, in which per capita consumption varies near that switch-over point. For that archetype, both adaptation strategies may be relevant. When an FPU is of a no scarcity archetype, no direct adaptation measures are necessary. However, as population grows, the per capita consumption of an FPU sets it on a trajectory towards either stress first or shortage first, and so the above introduced guidelines may apply.

For stress first and stress alone archetypes, the need for demand management rather than supply side measures 1 is motivated by the common ideological point of view that high per capita water consumption should be reduced. In practice, however, there seems to be a tendency to meet demand first, for example in the case of trajectories with a constant per capita demand shape (see Fig. 6C ). This might be explained in terms of the “hydraulic mission” 27 , common around the world in the 20 th century, which aims to dominate nature in order to increase food production and provide water and food security. This has to some extent been curbed by increased emphasis on social and environmental impact assessment 27 , 28 . Ideally, adaptation strategies should focus first on increasing water productivity (domestic, agricultural, and industrial) or on shifting to lower water footprint goods and services. The latter might include reducing virtual water exports 29 and/or increasing virtual water imports 30 . Several of these actions would not be captured by the data and analysis applied, and may have already occurred, as suggested by recent studies 29 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 .

For cases where shortage occurs before stress, supply-side options are in principle preferred because lower per capita water consumption provides less potential for demand-side intervention than when stress occurs first. There are, however, two main ways to handle water shortage: (i) increasing available water, or (ii) limiting population. Available water can be increased by using desalination (in coastal areas) 35 , introducing physical water transfers 36 , 37 and/or reducing non-productive evaporation 38 . Increased storage capacity is likely to play a smaller role at decadal scale, but is a common strategy to increase seasonal or inter-annual water availability. Emigration and lowered birth rates may limit population, but are perhaps better treated as side-effects of other developments rather than explicit water scarcity strategies. Moreover, an area can adapt to water shortage by using the strategies to reduce per capita water consumption. Possibilities for reducing water requirements include more efficient irrigation 39 , reduction of food losses 40 , reduction of water-intensive goods 41 , 42 , and reduction of leakages in public supply systems 43 .

The potential for reducing blue water consumption notably depends on green water availability (soil water from precipitation), especially in the case of agriculture 13 , but also, for example, on urban parks and golf courses. Areas with reliable green water resources tend to have lower blue water consumption, and hence less stress. While this study does not quantify green water availability, it does show that different archetypes occur depending on the reason for irrigation consumption (which is the largest water-consumption sector in most areas). As discussed in Siebert et al . 20 , irrigation is notably driven by: (i) the desire to make agriculture possible in arid areas; (ii) the desire to increase productivity in semi-arid and temperate areas; or (iii) weed-suppression by controlling the water level when growing rice. The results by irrigation zones 20 (see Fig. 5 for trajectories by irrigation zones, and tabulated results for population in Supplementary Table 2 ) indicate, for example, that most of the high per capita consumption stress first (90% of FPUs within those archetypes) or stress alone (82% of FPUs) trajectories occur in arid regions, consistent with higher crop water requirements due to irrigation. Shortage alone in turn occurs commonly in wet areas (50% of FPUs), consistent with low water requirements and high population pressure.

In practice, it appears that shortage is not directly tackled until stress occurs. Moderate shortage is tolerated, perhaps buffered by low consumption and other water sources, such as virtual water imports, green water and fossil groundwater. This avoids tackling the underlying issue of population growth, and stress is reached some time later. For example, in North-eastern Mainland China, some FPUs have experienced shortage since before 1905, and others more recently since 1925 and 1975 ( Supplementary Fig. 3 ). Stress followed years or decades later, as population grew. Groundwater and a number of inter-basin transfers are already in use, and additional south-north transfers are in development 44 , 45 . These FPUs are good examples where per capita blue water consumption is low enough that shortage occurred first. There is, however, significant potential for further reductions due to large virtual water exports, which could avoid the need for inter-basin transfers 45 .

FPU water scarcity trajectories: shapes

When FPU trajectories are distinguished by their shape , it is possible to understand the dynamics of consumption over time, and how that has impacted on the scarcity type (shapes are summarised in Table 2B ; example trajectories for each shape are shown in Fig. 6C and all trajectories in Supplementary Fig. 2 ). Further, shapes can be used to assess what needs to be done for an FPU to be put on a sustainable pathway, avoiding both water stress and water shortage in the long term. The majority of FPUs show significant temporal variation in per capita water consumption, stress, and shortage, consistent with the expected tension between population growth, water supply and demand management. In general, achieving sustainable water consumption on a decadal scale requires a combination of stabilising population, enforcing limits of sustainable supply, mitigating impacts of water stress and/or reducing water requirements.

All these strategies are likely to be required to deal with FPUs in the shape categories increasing scarcity and other . The former face both incessant population growth and intensification of water consumption, which currently leads to strictly increasing stress and shortage (6.6% of global population in 2000s, Fig. 6 ), for example in parts of the Balkans (FPU 169, Fig. 6 ). The other shape category (32.2% of the population) shows complex trajectories for which specific recommendations cannot be made without other economic or demographic data.

In FPUs where the trajectory shape is determined by constant per capita demand (29% of population), changes in scarcity are predominantly determined by population growth. Constant per capita demand is visible as a (relatively) straight diagonal trajectory in the Falkenmark matrix ( Figs 4B and 6C ). As long as per capita consumption is kept in check, stabilising population is an effective strategy for FPUs with any trajectory shape as it avoids increases in shortage and total consumption, and hence stress.

In FPUs with strictly increasing stress but varying shortage (4.9% of population), consistent intensification of water consumption is the key concern, for example in northern France (FPU 121, Fig. 6 ). Recognising the socio-economic importance of exploitation of the local water resource and potential difficulty in curbing water consumption, achieving sustainability may involve mitigation measures to allow greater water consumption than would otherwise be possible. Examples include improving water allocation and other governance mechanisms, providing storage and channelling engineering works, optimising environmental flows, and benefit-sharing to compensate other impacted users. This corresponds to the idea of ‘decoupling’ growth from impacts 46 .

In FPUs with strictly increasing shortage but varying stress (15% of population), the key concern is strong population growth, as in northern India (FPU 494, Fig. 6 ). Recognising that addressing the drivers of population growth may take time, achieving sustainability may involve reducing local water requirements, so that consumption does not grow in parallel with population. This corresponds to decoupling growth from resource use and may be achieved by improved water productivity or decreasing water-dependent production 40 , 41 . Decoupling from resource use already appears to be occurring in many areas, as shown by decreasing trends for per capita consumption ( Fig. 1 ). In FPUs where irrigation is important, per capita consumption is particularly influenced by area equipped for irrigation and a combination of irrigation efficiency and climate effects. However, the most prominent examples of decoupling from local resource use are FPUs dominated by cities, taking as an example FPU 307 in western Africa (32 million people in 2000s), which includes the megacity of Lagos in Nigeria. While some food and other water-dependent products are produced in the hinterland, they can also be imported from elsewhere (along with virtual water) 47 . Such areas can therefore have relatively low local blue water requirements, mainly for domestic and industrial water supply (83% of total water consumption at FPU 307). The sustainability of such FPUs depends largely on their interactions with regional and global water resources.

In addition to cases where trends suggest that decoupling is occurring, the analysis identifies some cases with a stress decrease -shape (10% of population), or where stress stabilised ( stress ceiling -shape, 2% of population). In most cases, this occurs as a result of decreases in consumption, but appears to be driven often by socio-economic factors rather than limited water availability. Results show that FPUs that have reached a stress ceiling are mostly those with high per capita consumption that suffer water stress alone ( cf. Figs 3 and ​ and6B) 6B ) in North America, Central Asia, or Africa. However, stress ceilings occur even with a stress level of 10% (e.g. in Northern Africa), and decreases in stress in FPUs that are not water scarce in large parts of the former Soviet Union ( Fig. 6A ), following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This may thus be related to the region’s political and economic changes. Consistent with the idea of a “hydraulic mission” 27 , 28 , dams and canals increased supply to allow irrigation demand to expand. Reductions in consumption then occurred not just due to improvements in irrigation efficiency but also due to a shift from exported cotton (and virtual water 29 ) to food self-sufficiency in the newly independent nation states 48 , 49 . Water scarcity trajectories and their sustainability are closely tied with other socio-economic and political issues.

This study highlights key issues in understanding global historical water scarcity and pathways for future adaptation. Considering both forms of water scarcity, this analysis provides an improved understanding of blue water consumption and trajectories of past water scarcity development globally at sub-national level for the entire 20 th century. The results show that more people are under water scarcity than previously estimated ( Supplementary Table 4 ).

Only a few previous studies assessed historical water scarcity using multiple water use sectors 10 , 19 , 50 , and even then only for the past 50 years. This study’s results compare well with previous trends and estimates of water consumption since 1960, the starting period of existing assessments 10 , 50 ( Supplementary Table 3 ). The largest improvement in this study, in terms of water consumption trends, is the use of historical spatially explicit irrigation maps 20 rather than national values. This results in large differences in the location and extent of irrigation areas, particularly in large countries, such as the USA 20 .

Findings for population under stress and shortage separately also show good agreement with existing studies of historical water scarcity ( Supplementary Table 4 ). The existing studies focus on water stress alone 10 or water shortage alone 7 , or assess both forms of scarcity at only one or two time steps 16 or scenarios 29 , with the exception of one study 18 that assesses the interannual variability of blue water scarcity. Assessing both shortage and stress over several decades provides additional insights on the development of water scarcity. The FPU-level trajectories show signs not just of differences in resource endowments and local history, but also similarities due to shared problems and diffusion of solutions, suggestive of a global shared destiny for which collaboration is essential. Classifying sub-national water scarcity trajectories in terms of archetypes ( Fig. 5 ) helps to highlight possible adaptation actions to cope with shortage and/or stress, depending on the level of water consumption in per capita terms. Classifying trajectories in terms of their shape ( Fig. 6 ) helps to highlight different approaches to put FPUs on a sustainable pathway. Nearly all FPUs show an increase in scarcity over time as population increases ( Fig. 6 ; Supplementary Fig. 2 ), indicating that understanding of scarcity adaptation actions and pathways to sustainability will only become more important in the future. These historical trajectories provide a common foundation from which further work can dig deeper to identify mistakes to avoid repeating, and past successes worth replicating, in order to better tackle future challenges of water scarcity.

As noted in Introduction, results presented correspond to a well-defined scope focussed on scarcity associated with a long-term view of consumptive blue water use. The selected indicators are widely adopted and can be linked to previous studies 8 , 9 , 10 , 14 , 18 . Additional information sources that would allow more sophisticated water scarcity analysis are not available for the entire study period. These include water quality, technological and social access to water and trade of virtual water. Future studies could include these aspects.

Furthermore, the analysis is commensurate with the significant uncertainty involved in the datasets and models used to cover the globe for the past 110 years 51 , 52 . In this study, two important datasets are combined: water availability and water use, both provided by the WaterGAP2 model. In order to reduce uncertainty in water availability estimates, the model has been calibrated in a basin-specific manner against mean annual river discharge using 1319 gauging stations 53 . Previous studies have reported that the model performs well in relation to other global hydrological models when compared to observations 51 , giving confidence in our water availability estimates. Water use data, on the other hand, is viewed as particularly uncertain 54 . For example, in a multi-model comparison, Wada et al . 55 show that modelled irrigation demand compares reasonably well to country-scale reported values (deviations in the range of +/− 15% in most cases) and conclude that most models are capable of simulating regional variability in irrigation water demand across the globe. Since irrigation constitutes the largest share to global total water consumption and is the dominant water-consuming sector in many parts of the world, it is very likely to also dominate the uncertainty in estimated total water consumption.

We compared the water consumption data of this study to two previous studies assessing the past water consumption 10 , 50 ( Supplementary Table 3 ), and found that the consumption estimates vary on the order of 35%, this study being the most conservative one. When our water scarcity results were compared to existing studies 10 , 18 ( Supplementary Table S4 ), we found that estimates of global population under shortage, and population under stress vary on the order of 15% and 30% respectively.

Besides these two key input data products, various assumptions have been made in the analysis itself. A notable assumption relates to the thresholds used to differentiate different states of water stress and shortage. Whilst these assumed thresholds directly affect the amount of population living under water scarcity, they do not affect the trajectory lines in the Falkenmark matrix themselves. Correspondingly, the shapes of the trajectories are not affected by these thresholds. However, trajectory archetypes would somewhat be impacted, as changing these thresholds would mean a specific FPU reaches a certain level of scarcity a decade earlier or later.

As a result, our emphasis is on drawing coherent insights rather than providing precise estimates. In this context, specific numbers represent one possible realisation in the context of significant uncertainty. This is important when comparing our results for a specific year with other studies. The key conclusions of this study are, however, robust, namely the interpretation of sub-national shortage and stress trajectories and the importance of population growth and per capita water consumption in determining local development of scarcity. They are consistent with existing understanding, and strongly influenced by patterns in input data (e.g. population growth and expansion of irrigation area) that are independent of other assumptions made in the analyses.

The analytical approach used and the initial insights it provides could also be used as a foundation for further research. Additional information about uncertainty could be obtained by systematically repeating the analysis with other models and forcing datasets, as has been done in comparable contexts 5 . This would, however, require a carefully chosen, meaningful set of scenarios. A range of different assumptions can be used regarding scarcity thresholds and indicators, focussing on different issues delimiting different perspectives on safe and just operating spaces for socio-ecological systems 3 , 56 . Calculating indicators at seasonal 11 , 57 or annual scale 18 , 58 would allow investigation of how shortage and stress occur at shorter time scales, more closely related to every-day operations rather than long-term planning. Ideally, availability would be tied to access, which would help alleviate problems related to selection of spatial scale 59 . Focussing on water quality 60 , 61 , unsustainable water sources 62 , and on spatially explicit environmental flow requirements 4 , 63 (the thresholds used for water stress assume global environmental flow requirements of 30% 17 ) would explicitly identify the portion of available water that should not be used to avoid stress according to different criteria. Similarly, focussing on self-sufficiency of water and food 12 , 58 , 64 would identify specific water requirements for shortage, though it would also require greater consideration of both blue and green water 13 .

Whether self-sufficiency is required is particularly relevant in the context of trade 65 and virtual water transfers 31 , which are not captured in this study. From an economics perspective, scarcity is not intrinsically problematic, but rather raises questions of optimal allocation of the scarce resources, trade to make use of comparative advantages, and the inclusion of externalities. Prominent issues include the role of water quality and safety 66 , and accessibility and equity determined by social, economic and political circumstances 25 , 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 , 71 . Linking the trajectories to other datasets may help deepen understanding, expanding and better explaining the shapes introduced here ( Table 2B ), and how they relate to historical and future drivers as well as limits to adaptation.

Analysis unit: Food production units

This study used food production units (FPUs), a combination of river basin and administrative boundaries 7 , 72 , 73 , as an analysis unit. These are reported to be suitable for water scarcity studies 7 , 58 . For this project, a set of FPUs were developed that are consistent with the basin delineation of the WaterGAP2 hydrological and water use models, resulting in 548 FPUs. It is important to use the same delineation for FPUs as watersheds of the WaterGAP2 model, as the way water availability is dealt with (see Fig. 7 ) requires that FPUs do not cross the borders of large river basins. Results are also aggregated from the FPU scale to regional ( n  = 12) scale. The regions are based on UN macro regions aggregating the countries to larger units 74 with the difference that some of the largest regions were divided into smaller regions by Kummu et al . 7 to be more suitable for (historical) water analyses.

Water availability calculations in a large basin with several FPUs, i.e. each FPU is a sub-basin for the large basin. A: schematic illustration of a basin with four FPUs; B: Runoff of each grid cell in km 3 yr −1 ; and C: discharge of each grid cell in km 3 yr −1 . The share of available water resources is calculated as the sum of discharges of each grid cell within an SBA divided by the sum of discharges of all grid cells within a basin. The available water resources are then calculated by multiplying that share with the total available runoff of the whole basin. [Adobe Illustrator CS5 –software was used to create the figure; http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator.html ]

Water availability

This analysis used the global hydrological model WaterGAP2 53 to derive gridded estimates for runoff and river discharge at 30 arc-min spatial resolution for the study period of 1901–2010. Based on daily meteorological forcing fields and spatially distributed physiographic information (e.g. soil, land cover), the model simulates the terrestrial water cycle by a sequence of storage equations for the storage compartments canopy, snowpack, soil, renewable groundwater, and surface water bodies. For this study, simulations were driven by WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) which is available for the period 1901–2001 75 . Since it is not recommended to combine WFD with other similar data-sets 53 , 76 in order to derive full coverage over the study period 1901–2010, simulations for the period beyond the year 2001 were based on 1990s climate forcing.

Since this analysis focuses on long-term trends in water scarcity, the 10-yr annual average over each decade was calculated for both discharge and runoff to compensate for inter-annual variability. These data were then used to assess the water availability in each FPU. The calculation of water availability can be divided into two cases:

• In cases when an FPU consisted of one basin or several small basins, water availability was simply the sum of annual runoff generated within the area of a specific FPU.
• In cases of large river basins that were divided into several FPUs, a simple ‘water sharing rule’ was used to assign the available freshwater resources within each FPU 5 , 12 . This was developed in a way that it would be usable for both water shortage and water stress calculations, i.e. the sum of water availability of the FPUs within the basin cannot exceed the annual runoff of the basin. The water sharing rule was based on a discharge proportion of FPUs within a basin multiplied with the annual runoff, as illustrated in Fig. 7 .

The water use model of WaterGAP2 simulates water withdrawals and consumption of the following sectors: i) irrigation, ii) livestock farming, iii) thermal electricity production, iv) manufacturing industries, and v) households and small businesses (domestic).

To indicate the area equipped for irrigation (AEI), the analysis used the HID product by Siebert et al . 20 , which gives spatially explicit AEI for the entire 20 th century. The proportion of irrigated harvested rice area was based on the MIRCA-2000 dataset 77 . The proportions were kept at year 2000 level throughout the study period due to lack of historical data. As in the case of the water availability simulations (see above), to simulate the irrigation water consumption beyond 2001, climate forcing data from the 1990s were used. The estimate of consumption for the 2000s should therefore not be included when assessing trend in per capita consumption. Irrigation water consumption is the amount of water that must be applied to the crops by irrigation in order to achieve optimal crop growth. Monthly consumptive irrigation requirements are therefore based on climate, the spatial extent of AEI and crop type (rice and non-rice). Return flows, i.e. water withdrawal minus water consumption, which account for water that infiltrates and returns to the water cycle, are not quantified in this study.

Livestock water consumption was calculated on the basis of gridded information on the number of livestock units and water consumption per head and year, taking into account 10 livestock types 21 . Due to limited data prior to the year 1960, livestock water consumption for the period of 1900–1960 was kept at the level of 1960. Overall, this may lead to an underestimation or overestimation in livestock water consumption depending on the FPU 78 , which is expected to be minor as the amount of livestock water consumption is small compared to the other sectors. Water consumption estimates for electricity, manufacturing, and domestic sectors were based on the methodologies described in Flörke et al . 19 . In brief, domestic water consumption is estimated from population and domestic water use intensity, taking into account structural and technological changes. Country-scale water consumption in the manufacturing sector is calculated from manufacturing structural water use intensity, gross value added, and consumption coefficients; again taking into account technological change. The amount of water withdrawn and consumed for cooling purposes in thermoelectric power production is determined from the annual thermal electricity production and the water use intensity of each power station, distinguishing three cooling system types (once-through, pond, and tower cooling systems) and several fuel types (fossil/biomass/waste-fuelled, nuclear, natural gas/oil combined, coal/petroleum residuum-fuelled). Based on this information, the model approach distinguishes 14 combinations of plant type (PT) and cooling system (CS). In 2010, about 2.8% of cooling water abstractions evaporated, i.e. most of the water withdrawn was discharged back into rivers (Flörke et al . 19 ).

To get the total water consumption, all the water use sectors are summed together. Trends in per capita consumption (see background in Fig. 1A ) were determined with the Mann-Kendall test, calculating the Kendall correlation of demand with time. A p -value of 0.05 was used as part of a two-sided test of whether the correlation was statistically significantly different from zero.

Water stress calculations

The indicator of blue water stress is the water use to availability ratio. We use consumption rather than withdrawals, such that water ‘use’ means that water is no longer available for other users. The indicator was calculated for each decade and for each FPU. The water stress thresholds used are, however, those for the withdrawal-based water stress index (WSI) developed by Falkenmark 16 , and used by a number of other studies 8 , 10 , 57 , 78 :

• WSI <0.2: no water stress
• WSI = 0.2–0.4: moderate water stress
• WSI >0.4: high water stress

Using withdrawals risks over-estimating the actual stress as a substantial part of the withdrawals are available for downstream users as return flows 22 , 23 . On the other hand, using water consumption, as in this study, might underestimate the water stress. Recent work by Munia et al . 79 uses consumption and withdrawals as minimum and maximum levels of scarcity, respectively. They show that the difference between these two estimates results in an 18 percent point difference in the amount of population under water stress. Similar uncertainties in the absolute amount of people under water scarcity should be considered for the numbers quoted in this study. This may also be worthwhile approach for future work. Finally, it should be stressed that the thresholds used assume a global environmental flow requirements of 30% 17 .

Water shortage calculations

For water shortage calculations the analysis is based the water crowding index (WCI) developed by Falkenmark 17 , 80 . WCI is calculated by dividing the water availability by total population of an FPU. Here, historical, spatially explicit, population data is from HYDE 3.1 81 . The water shortage thresholds are as follows:

• WCI >1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 : no water shortage
• WCI = 1000–1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 : moderate water shortage
• WCI <1000 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 : high water shortage

Water scarcity matrix and related calculations

To illustrate the combination of water stress and water shortage, the analysis used the Falkenmark water scarcity matrix ( Fig. 4 ). By plotting water stress against shortage over time, water scarcity trajectories were derived for each FPU. These trajectories in turn were categorised for archetypes and shapes ( Table 2 , and see below).

The formulas used for the indicators mean that for any combination of stress and shortage, per capita consumption can also be calculated (see diagonal lines in Fig. 4B ). For example, consider the point where an FPU is classified as under both water stress and water shortage:

The corresponding per capita consumption can be calculated for those values of stress and shortage (see also Fig. 4B ):

For a given per capita consumption, this formula can be rearranged to identify whether an FPU would already be stressed when the shortage threshold is reached (shortage = 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ).

Therefore, the following interpretation can be made when assuming shortage of 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 :

If per capita consumption = 340 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 → stress = 0.2 (stress and shortage same time)

If per capita consumption >340 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 → stress >0.2 (stress occurs first)

If per capita consumption <340 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 → stress <0.2 (shortage occurred first)

Scarcity archetypes

The scarcity archetypes define the water scarcity status and level of per capita consumption (see Table 2A ). Scarcity categorisation for archetypes is based on the lowest stress (20%) and shortage thresholds (1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ). ‘No scarcity yet’ are FPUs that have never reached the lowest threshold of water stress (20%) or shortage (1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ). For ‘Shortage alone’, water availability has passed the threshold of 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 , but stress has remained below the threshold of 20%. ‘Stress alone’ occurs where stress exceeds 20% but water availability (i.e. shortage) has never dropped below 1700 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 . ‘Stress first’, ‘Shortage first’ and ‘Stress and shortage at same time’ occur when the trajectory has exceeded both the stress and shortage thresholds, sub-categorised according to which type of strategy is reached first.

Scarcity shapes

The scarcity shapes, in turn, divide the trajectories into categories based on their shape when plotted in the Falkenmark matrix. Specific rules for each shape were developed as outlined in Table 2B .

Additional Information

How to cite this article : Kummu, M. et al . The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability. Sci. Rep. 6 , 38495; doi: 10.1038/srep38495 (2016).

Publisher's note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Material

Acknowledgments.

Study was funded by Academy of Finland project SCART (grant no. 267463), Emil Aaltonen foundation (‘eat-less-water’ project), Academy of Finland funded SRC project ‘Winland’, and Maa- ja vesitekniikan tuki ry . Additionally, P.J. Ward received funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) in the form of a VENI grant (grant no. 863-11-011) and T.I.E. Veldkamp from EU 7th Framework Programme through the projects ENHANCE (grant agreement no. 308438) and EartH2Observe (grant agreement no. 603608). Authors are grateful to Suvi Sojamo and Olli Varis for their comments and support.

Author Contributions M.K., J.H.A.G., H.d.M., S.E., S.S. and P.J.W. designed this study in consultation with M.F. and T.I.E.V. The modelling was conducted by S.E. and M.F. supported by M.K., J.H.A.G., H.d.M. and M.P. Analyses were conducted by H.d.M., J.H.A.G. and M.K. in consultation with S.E., S.S. and P.J.W. Statistical analyses for trajectory classification were conducted by J.H.A.G. M.K., J.H.A.G., S.E. and T.I.E.V. wrote the article, with contributions from all co-authors.

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Desalination: What is it and how can it help tackle water scarcity?

A natural resources crisis like water scarcity is listed in the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report, as one of the top-10 threats facing the world in the next decade. Image:  Unsplash/Nathan Dumlao

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Stay up to date:, future of the environment.

This article was originally published on 12 March 2024 and updated on 15 April 2024

• Desalination increases access to safe, clean drinking water, but the process is energy-intensive and costly.
• Innovations are harnessing wave power and other forms of energy capture to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and curb emissions from desalination.
• A natural resources crisis is one of the leading global long-term threats, according to the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report.

Billions of people turn on a tap and expect clean drinking water to flow out, but this is not the reality for billions of others.

Rapid population growth, urbanization and increased global water consumption by agriculture, industry and energy have left a growing number of countries facing the threat of water scarcity.

One solution to meet the growing demand for freshwater is desalination, which involves removing the salt from seawater to produce drinking water. While this process alone can’t prevent a global water crisis, it can play a vital role in providing more people around the world with access to clean, safe drinking water.

Have you read?

25 countries face extremely high water stress, study finds, this new desalination system is inspired by the ocean and powered by the sun, how technology and entrepreneurship can quench our parched world, a future water crisis.

Water scarcity occurs when water demand outstrips available supply during a specific period – when water infrastructure is inadequate or institutions fail to balance people’s needs.

In 2022, 2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water , including more than 700 million people living without a basic water service, according to the United Nations.

By 2030, there could be a 40% global shortfall in freshwater resources, which combined with world population growth that’s set to increase from 8 billion today to 9.7 billion by 2050 , would leave the world facing an extreme water crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see the biggest change in water demand, with a projected 163% increase by mid-century, World Resources Institute data shows. This is four times the expected rate of change in Latin America, the second-highest region.

Almost two-thirds of the planet’s surface is covered with water, and our oceans hold 96.5% of all water on Earth . However, its salt content makes this water unsuitable for humans to drink. This is where desalination comes in.

Types of desalination

There are a number of different methods of desalination, but most work either by a process of reverse osmosis or multistage flash to remove the salt from seawater .

Reverse osmosis is the more efficient of these two methods. The process uses a special membrane acting as a filter, which blocks and removes salt from seawater as it passes through. Here, powerful pumps generate enough pressure to ensure pure water is extracted.

Multistage flash desalination doesn't use a filter. Instead, saltwater is exposed to steam heat and pressure variations, which causes a portion of the water to evaporate – or "flash" – into water vapour or freshwater, leaving behind salty brine as a by-product.

Water security – both sustainable supply and clean quality – is a critical aspect in ensuring healthy communities. Yet, our world’s water resources are being compromised.

Today, 80% of our wastewater flows untreated back into the environment, while 780 million people still do not have access to an improved water source. By 2030, we may face a 40% global gap between water supply and demand.

The World Economic Forum’s Water Possible Platform is supporting innovative ideas to address the global water challenge.

The Forum supports innovative multi-stakeholder partnerships including the 2030 Water Resources Group , which helps close the gap between global water demand and supply by 2030 and has since helped facilitate $1Billion of investments into water.

Other emerging partnerships include the 50L Home Coalition , which aims to solve the urban water crisis , tackling both water security and climate change; and the Mobilizing Hand Hygiene for All Initiative , formed in response to close the 40% gap of the global population not having access to handwashing services during COVID-19.

Want to join our mission to address the global water challenge? Read more in our impact story .

Both desalination processes create brine containing high salt levels, which can pose a threat to marine ecosystems when released back into natural bodies of water. The output of both methods is clean drinking water. But, in addition to removing salt, the desalination process also removes organic or biological chemical compounds so the water produced doesn’t transmit diarrhoea or other diseases.

Wave-powered innovation

While reverse osmosis plants are more efficient than multistage flash plants, large-scale desalination plants require a lot of energy and maintenance, and are expensive to build and operate.

A number of innovative desalination systems are being developed to try and reduce the energy required to operate them and related emissions.

Oneka, a wave-powered desalination technology, is one such innovation . Floating buoys tethered to the ocean floor use wave power to drive a pump that forces seawater through filters and reverse osmosis membranes. The fresh water is then piped ashore again powered solely by the natural motion of waves, explains Canadian desalination company Oneka Technologies.

The system has several advantages over large-scale shore-based desalination plants that are mostly powered by combusting fossil fuels, but it does require high waves to work.

The small floating units require 90% less coastal land compared with a typical desalination plant, for example, the company says. Relying on emissions-free wave power rather than electricity demands less energy and generates fewer emissions than traditional desalination plants.

" Desalination facilities are conventionally powered by fossil fuels ," Susan Hunt, Chief Innovation Officer at Oneka Technologies, told the BBC. "But the world has certainly reached a pivot point. We want to move away from fossil fuel-powered desalination."

Dragan Tutic, Founder and CEO of Oneka Technologies, added that "our mission is to make the oceans an affordable and sustainable source of water."

Solar – low-cost water purification

Solar power has been used to convert saltwater into fresh drinking water , by researchers from King's College in London in collaboration with MIT and the Helmholtz Institute of Renewable Energy Systems.

A set of specialized membranes channel salt ions into a stream of brine, leaving fresh drinkable water. The system adjusts to variable sunlight without compromising the volume of drinking water produced. The process is 20% cheaper than traditional desalination methods, which could boost efforts to provide drinking water in developing countries, the researchers say.

Dutch start-up Desolenator – supported by Uplink, the innovation platform of the World Economic Forum – is also using solar power for its low-cost water-as-a-service model for communities and businesses .

The technology avoids the use of membranes or harmful chemicals, the company says, and customers can choose specific water types to meet their needs: ultra-pure water, pure potable water or customized re-mineralized water.

Each modular plant can produce up to 250,000 litres of freshwater daily, helping boost water security in water-scarce regions.

" We operate with 100% solar power, no harmful chemicals, and now we're building zero liquid discharge, which will make us the first fully circular solar desalination technology in the world," said Desolenator co-founder Alexei Levene.

"We take our waste brine and turn it into salt, so nothing goes back into the environment. It's a distributed technology that we can deploy and it's going to be the most sustainable desalination approach that there is," he said.

Averting a natural resources crisis

A natural resources crisis like water scarcity is listed in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 , as one of the top 10 threats facing the world in the next decade.

Currently, desalination plants are used in regions like the Middle East, which has a hot climate alongside a buoyant and technologically able economy. But the energy-intensive nature and high costs of conventional desalination plants act as barriers to widespread take-up, the report says.

However, innovations that reduce the energy needed to operate desalination plants and reduce greenhouse emissions from their operations could change the situation and increase access to fresh drinking water for communities facing water challenges.

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World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

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Essay on Water Scarcity- Practice Samples For IELTS

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Updated on 27 June, 2023

Mrinal Mandal

Study abroad expert.

You can readily write the IELTS   essay on water scarcity without any hassles. What you should do is plan your essay logically, while sticking to a proper introduction, some core points, and a conclusion. Here are some samples to help you practice this essay seamlessly.

Table of Contents

• Essay on Water Scarcity: Sample 1
• Essay on Scarcity of Water: Sample 2

Important IELTS Exam Resources

Essay on water scarcity: sample 1 .

Water scarcity is a pressing issue throughout the world. India is no exception to the scenario. A report by NITI Aayog in 2019 confirmed how India is plagued by arguably the largest water-related crisis today, where a whopping 600 million of the country’s population are deprived of water. 

These reports have also stated that 21 major cities, including metropolises like Hyderabad, Bangalore, Delhi, and Chennai, will end up depleting their resources of groundwater over the next few years. Water scarcity has been caused due to a combination of factors in the country. These include privatization and rampant flouting of norms by industries along with faulty execution/planning by the government, human and industrial waste, pollution, and red tape. 

By the year 2050, water scarcity in the country is expected to acutely get worse, with a population increase forecasted to 1.6 billion people. There are still seeds of hope, especially on the back of measures like the  Jal Jeevan Mission and others. Several state governments and urban development authorities are also taking steps to lower overall dependence on groundwater and drive a shift towards potable water in several areas. Awareness campaigns are also on the rise, encouraging water conservation. We also need more rainwater harvesting and water recycling programs in order to tackle the issue from a long-term perspective. To conclude, I would like to state that water is the most precious resource of all. We cannot survive without it. Hence, governments, individual citizens, agencies, and all other stakeholders should come together to  save water as much as possible. 

Tentative Band Score: 7

Word Count: 259

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Essay on Scarcity of Water: Sample 2 

Water scarcity is perhaps the biggest problem affecting India today. The government has officially released its blueprint under the  Jal Jeevan Mission in the 2021-22 Union Budget, allocating Rs. 2,87,000 crore for ensuring water supply to 4,378 towns in total. Tap-drinking water will also be supplied by the government to all households in rural zones by the year 2024. 

While these measures are aimed at addressing the acute shortage of water throughout the country, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, a lot more needs to be done. Some of the biggest reasons behind water scarcity include inefficient and wasteful usage of water for industries, agriculture, and other activities. Pollution and drainage of wastewater are other reasons along with rising construction, and the reduction in water recharging mechanisms for groundwater. There is also the absence of a proper water management and distribution blueprint, especially in urban areas, which emphasizes minimal wastage and resource optimization. 

Groundwater resources are depleting swiftly while draining industrial and sewage-related waste into water bodies is hindering potable water availability alongside. Some of the possible solutions include strict tracking of industries and agricultural practices to avoid inefficient water usage and dumping of waste. Governments can also consider public awareness campaigns for minimizing water usage in our daily activities including washing dishes, cars, and so on. Rainwater harvesting should be made mandatory for all residential projects along with water recycling facilities in neighborhoods. Concrete and sustained measures will go a long way toward helping us mitigate the problem in the near future. 

Word Count: 255

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IELTS Essay Samples

The essay for IELTS is part of Writing Task 2. It is the same for the General Training and Academic of the IELTS. You will get a topic and have to write an essay on the same.

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Water Shortage’ Major Causes and Implication Cause and Effect Essay

Introduction.

It’s no doubt that the world is facing a topic of water crisis which has gone out of control and therefore raising a lot of concerns from the leaders and international organization who are trying to come up with ideas of solving this problem (Oxfam.org.uk, 2011).

However, the root cause of this problem is upon the human race that is entirely to blame for the ever increasing water crisis due poor and undeveloped policies governing protection of such water one of the most precious natural resource. In this regard the following discussion will elaborate on the major causes and implication of water shortage in the planet today.

First, both industrial and domestic water pollution is one of the major causes of water shortage because as more water is polluted the more water is wasted (Oxfam.org.uk, 2011).

Due to lack of proper technology available for recycling and purifying such polluted water in many countries across the world, issues of water pollution have become so prevalent and therefore contributing to high percentage of water wastage.

Secondly, water shortage has also been attributed to the high population growth causing a serious competition for this resource (Jones, 2010). The world population is increasing at an alarming rate and consequently straining the supply of this natural resource and hence resulting to severe scarcity of such water due to it’s over use.

Additionally, poor management of the water catchment areas is also another cause of water shortage (Oxfam.org.uk, 2011).

Majorly, when water catchment areas are destroyed through deforestation among many other ways, water is also likely to decrease due to destruction rocks and water table hence resulting to low water generation from the surface of earth (Oxfam.org.uk, 2011).

On the other hand, due to the fact that water has become a scarce resource, consequently this has possible implications to the humanity and animal kingdom as well.

To the humanity, one of the major implications is that, water scarcity may possibly cause a disagreement of ideas in the planet due to conflict of interest among different countries who would want to have the natural resource for them selves.

Additionally, issues of water shortage may also probably cause division of classes when people will want to own water privately and this will create a class of water have and have-nots (Jones, 2010).

Summary of the article

This article is a discussion regarding one major problem that is an issue of concern in the 21 st century which according to the author, the world is currently facing a major crisis- the scarcity of water one of the most useful natural resource.

The argument is that, in the 20 th century the world was having a crisis in dealing with issues such as political ideologies among others, but now the current crisis is much worse and it might be one the major causes of conflict in the planet today (Jones, 2010).

The author describes the intensity to how much water as natural resource has become so scarce especially the fresh water which is essential for domestic consumption, in fact, the most shocking news is that, according to author’s report, fresh water currently contributes only about “2.5 percent of the planet’s entire water supply” and therefore, such supply of water can not meet the actual demand for water worldwide since the world’s population is also increasing at an alarming rate and consequently causing an increasing in water demand at least by double the original water necessity (Jones, 2010).

For this reason, then it is reasonably clear that the current trends of this particular natural resource can not sustain the world population; meaning that those sectors that fully depend on water such as agriculture and manufacturing industries may also not be able to function fully (Jones, 2010).

As a result of all these issues, then the ever rising water shortage crisis might be a cause of conflict in the world due to the competition for the natural resource that will also rise.

For this particular concern, there is a clear warning to the humanity that, this is a “real danger” because people will clash to own any drop of fresh water and then there will be “water have and water have not” categories of people (Jones, 2010).

Additionally, the article describes water shortage as a “genuine problem” that the world leaders need to address in order to establish a long lasting solution to safeguard the future (Jones, 2010).

The opinion is that, the leaders should put laws which are necessary in governing proper and at the same time, people should try to reduce cases of water pollution in order to facilitate recycling process.

Clear examples and factors arising due to fear of water scarcity

Water crisis is a global issue although it is more pronounced in some countries than others. For instance, a good example is river Nile which is one of the biggest rivers and a major source of water for various uses in North Africa region.

However, river Nile is also a source of worry to the current international relations due to the rising water competition amongst three African countries namely; Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (Egypt. com, 2007).

There is a crisis in this part of the world where there is a lot of politics on which country should rightfully tap out water (Egypt. com, 2007).

Egypt being a country with powerful military power is more likely to initiate military action in order to ensure she has control over the use of this water for its domestic use and for agricultural production as well, besides, Sudan and Ethiopia also claims that, they have the exclusive rights to use this water which Egypt argues that, the use of water by these other two countries might starve them (Egypt. com, 2007).

Besides, Lake Victoria in East Africa is also another geographical region where conflict over water is an issue already raising concern.

Due to the fact that, the lake lies along the boarder lines of three countries, namely; Kenya, Ugunda and Tanzania, this is enough reason to have a water crisis in this region (Kamugisha, 2007).

For instance, the many activities takes place at this lake including economical activities such as fishing among others is the major cause of catastrophe over the volume of water which is reportedly decreasing with each day.

There is a conflict over ownership of the lake due to the economical benefits which the three countries are generating from this lake causing some of the countries to extend their boundaries in order to have a bigger share of the lake which has already triggered a major conflict (Kamugisha, 2007).

It is no doubt that, these two cases reflect a rising conflict in Africa which happens to be one of the most affected regions in the world. The conflicts are on the rise as a result of competition for the natural resource which is becoming a scarce every day.

The world is currently facing much worse crisis in the 21 st century than previously when the world leaders were only having crisis over political ideologies and so on (Jones, 2010).

Currently, this is an issue that should be addressed with a lot of concern putting into consideration that, this particular issue of water scarcity might be the next cause of major conflict in the planet especially also considering that this particular natural resource is diminishing at a frightening rate.

In this regard, the humanity has a duty to safeguard their future in order to ensure it’s survival which can not be achieved without a drop of fresh water.

World leader, scientific researchers , international organization among many others, all have a major rule in enlightening the society about the need to protect and take care of this precious commodity in order to ensure sustainability for many years to come because water is an essential component that the whole animal kingdom rely on for life sustenance (Sipes, 2010).

Therefore appropriate and necessary actions should be implemented to curb the issue of water scarcity. Such measures would include; proper management of water catchment areas, reduce cases of water pollution, plant more tree around the globe, and establish policies such as water act which has already been implemented in US to reduce water wastage (Sipes, 2010).

Among many other measures, the solution to water scarcity is achievable if we fully get committed to the set polices in order to provide a long lasting solution one for all.

Egypt (2007). Egypt News – Water crisis hits Egypt “Country of Nile River” . Web.

Jones, D. (2010). Water: The cause of the next global conflict? Web.

Kamugisha, D. (2007). Lake Victoria Extinction and Human Vulnerability in Uganda . Web.

Oxfam (2011). Water for all . Web.

Sipes, J. (2010). Sustainable Solutions for Water Resources . New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons Press.

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IvyPanda. (2023, December 28). Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication. https://ivypanda.com/essays/water-crisis/

"Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication." IvyPanda , 28 Dec. 2023, ivypanda.com/essays/water-crisis/.

IvyPanda . (2023) 'Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication'. 28 December.

IvyPanda . 2023. "Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/water-crisis/.

1. IvyPanda . "Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/water-crisis/.

Bibliography

IvyPanda . "Water Shortage' Major Causes and Implication." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/water-crisis/.

• Australia Coastal and Catchment Management
• Water Yield Re-Estimation From the Catchment Due to Bushfire
• The Role of Urban Catchments in the Human and Ecological World
• Recurrent Pollution of the Tisza River of Hungary
• Geographic Information System (GIS) in Network Analysis
• Water Scarcity and Its Effects on the Environment
• It is About Lake
• Overlay and Viewshed in Landscape Ecology: Articles Analysis and Evaluation
• Scarcity of Water in Saudi Arabia, Africa and Australia
• Pesticide Usage and Water Scarcity
• Can Green Consumerism Be Anything More Than a Band-Aid Solution?
• Jefferson Island Salt Mine Louisiana Lake Peigneur 1980
• Impact of Plastics on the Environment
• Impacts of acidic deposition
• A Call for Conservation of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

River Hydropolitics in the Middle East

How the Community is Fighting Water Scarcity

It is common knowledge that water scarcity is a significant issue in the Middle East. It is an issue traveling along those many countries due to the staggering climate changes and increasing population. Many of the countries in the region struggle with the effects of the limitation of fresh and high water resources, especially with the levels of demand. The lack of water can cause food insecurity and harsh living conditions. Water scarcity is mainly caused by natural factors: high temperatures and limited rainfall.

The people of the Middle East have resulted in the development of major desalination plants and the implementation of sustainable agriculture and water-recycling programs. The average water loss is about 30%. By using innovative technologies, ENOWA aims to reduce loss to 3%, reducing the overall infrastructure and cost of water. With smart monitoring technologies, 100% recycling of wastewater, and the production of clean industrial resources, they are maximizing the potential of water use in industry, farming, and rebalancing nature. By replacing the underground water used for irrigation with desalinated water, processing the wastewater, and recycling all water that normally goes to waste, they rebalance the ecosystem and bring back the natural oasis in the region.

The Water Projects is a non-profit organization focused on helping the people in those areas witnessing the effects of water scarcity. They equip, train, and fund non-governmental organizations with an established in-country presence that can help provide reliable access to clean water and ensure its maintenance over time. With permits, these local organizations help build installations such as drilled wells, sand dams, and rainwater catchments. With a simple request and donation, they will happily set up a water-saving station in any area for those in need.

The process of removing salt and other minerals from seawater or brackish water to produce fresh water. Desalination requires serious energy costs to maintain. The energy required is often sourced from fossil fuels, which rapidly exacerbates climate change. Brine discharge can also ravage marine ecosystems when not properly managed. To counteract these environmental problems, efforts are being made to use renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power to reduce the carbon emissions of the plant. Brine treatment technologies also are being developed for the minimization of habitat damage.

• “Water in Crisis – Spotlight Middle East.” The Water Project , thewaterproject.org/water-crisis/water-in-crisis-middle-east. Accessed 8 Mar. 2024.
• “How Can the Middle East and North Africa Manage the Region’s Water Crisis?” World Economic Forum , www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/middle-east-north-africa-mena-water-crisis-industry-leaders-solutions/. Accessed 8 Mar. 2024.
• Roemer-Cominos, Lucas. “Solutions to Water Scarcity in the Middle East.” ArcGIS StoryMaps , Esri, 2 Dec. 2023, storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/1ee3ff5c39c64409ae805af8dc26f015.

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Climate Doom Is Out. ‘Apocalyptic Optimism’ Is In.

Focusing on disaster hasn’t changed the planet’s trajectory. Will a more upbeat approach show a way forward?

Credit... Photo Illustration by Doug Chayka

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By Alexis Soloski

• April 21, 2024

The philanthropist Kathryn Murdoch has prioritized donations to environmental causes for more than a decade. She has, she said, a deep understanding of how inhospitable the planet will become if climate change is not addressed. And she and her colleagues have spent years trying to communicate that.

“We have been screaming,” she said. “But screaming only gets you so far.”

This was on a morning in early spring. Murdoch and Ari Wallach, an author, producer and futurist, had just released their new PBS docuseries, “A Brief History of the Future,” and had hopped onto a video call to promote it — politely, no screaming required. Shot cinematically, in some never-ending golden hour, the six-episode show follows Wallach around the world as he meets with scientists, activists and the occasional artist and athlete, all of whom are optimistic about the future. An episode might include a visit to a floating village or a conversation about artificial intelligence with the musician Grimes. In one sequence, marine biologists lovingly restore a rehabbed coral polyp to a reef. The mood throughout is mellow, hopeful, even dreamy. Which is deliberate.

“There’s room for screaming,” Wallach said. “And there’s room for dreaming.”

“A Brief History of the Future” joins some recent books and shows that offer a rosier vision of what a world in the throes — or just past the throes — of global catastrophe might look like. Climate optimism as opposed to climate fatalism.

Hannah Ritchie’s “Not the End of the World: How We Can be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet” argues that many markers of disaster are less bad than the public imagines (deforestation, overfishing) or easily solvable (plastics in the oceans). In “Fallout,” the television adaptation of the popular video game that recently debuted on Amazon Prime Video, the apocalypse (nuclear, not climate-related) makes for a devastated earth, sundry mutants and plenty of goofy, kitschy fun — apocalypse lite.

“Life as We Know It (Can Be),” a book by Bill Weir, CNN’s chief climate correspondent, that is structured as a series of letters to his son, centers on human potential and resilience. And Dana R. Fisher’s “Saving Ourselves: From Climate Shocks to Climate Action” contends that the disruptions of climate change may finally create a mass movement that will lead to better global outcomes. Fisher, a sociologist, coined the term “apocalyptic optimism” to describe a belief that humans can still avoid the worst ravages of climate change.

In confronting the apocalypse, these works all insist that hope matters. They believe that optimism, however qualified or hard-won, may be what finally moves us to action. While Americans are less likely than their counterparts in the developed world to appreciate the threats that climate change poses, recent polls show that a significant majority of Americans now agree that climate change is real and a smaller majority agree that it is human-caused and harmful. And yet almost no expert believes that we are doing enough — in terms of technology, legislation or political pressure — to alleviate those harms.

Intimations of doom have failed to motivate us. Perhaps we will work toward a better future if we trust that one, with or without mutants, is possible. When it comes to climate catastrophe, is our best hope hope itself?

‘An Impatient Optimism’

For the past 50 years, and perhaps even before, most imaginative projections of the future have seen it through dark glasses, as World’s Fair-style visions of jet packs and gleaming cities gave way to arid landscapes populated by zombie hordes and rogue A.I. The appeal of a dystopia, in terms of entertainment, is obvious. The stakes — the survival of humanity — are enormous and the potential for action vast. There have been occasional utopian inventions, such as Kim Stanley Robinson’s extraordinary 2020 climate change novel, “The Ministry for the Future.” But in most cases, a future of environmental responsibility and cooperation, with or without jet packs, rarely makes for a best seller or a blockbuster.

Paradoxically, it was the likes of “The Hunger Games” and the “Mad Max” franchise that inspired Murdoch, the wife of James Murdoch, the former chief executive of 21st Century Fox, to create “A Brief History of the Future.” One day, her daughter, then 16, surprised Murdoch by telling her that she didn’t feel there was a future to look forward to. The books, films, television shows and graphic novels the girl consumed all took a dim view of humanity’s chances. None imagined a future more hopeful than the present. So Murdoch and Wallach, partners in Futurific Studios, set out to sketch one, which they hope to follow with video games and fiction films. Two graphic novels are already in the works.

The goal for “A Brief History of the Future” wasn’t to ignore climate change or other seam rippers of the social fabric but, in classic Mr. Rogers style, to look to the helpers. “There’s a huge amount of focus in the news and storytelling in general on what could go horribly wrong,” Murdoch said. “What I really wanted to highlight was all the work that’s happening right now to make things go right.”

This was also Ritchie’s project. A data scientist by training, she began her career overwhelmed by climate pessimism. That feeling of hopelessness took a personal toll and a professional one, she believes, interfering with her ability to turn her mind toward solutions. Scientist colleagues who had once needed to push back against the public’s climate skepticism were now facing people who believed in a coming global catastrophe perhaps too much.

“There’s been a really rapid shift in the narrative, from almost complete denial to, Oh, it’s too late now, there’s nothing we can do, we should just stop trying,” Ritchie said.

Anger, fear and sorrow might motivate some people, Ritchie said. But they hadn’t motivated her. Her book, which emphasizes the progress that has already been made (clean energy) and the progress that might still be made (increased crop yields), is a deliberate alternative, participating in what she calls “impatient optimism.” Doomerism is not only a bummer, she argues, it’s also a cliché.

“The more negative slant, it’s already been done a million times,” she said.

But a bummer may be what we deserve. Climate activism has scored the occasional win — a reduced hole in the ozone layer, the comeback of the California condor. Still, any sustained inquiry into the challenges we face in the future, and even right now, as the world warms faster than predicted, offers a gloomier prospect.

To emphasize a cheerier one, examples tend to be cherry picked or gently massaged. A section in Ritchie’s book argues, correctly, that deaths from extreme weather events are fewer than they were in the past. But this section all but ignores the fact that extreme weather events are becoming more severe and more frequent, a trend that will continue even if harmful emissions are slowed. And it ignores any deaths from extreme heat, which Ritchie attributed, in conversation, to the insufficiency of the data.

The journalist Jeff Goodell has studied that data. The title of his recent book, “The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet,” suggests a more sober perspective. (In conversation, he described himself as broadly bullish about the climate crisis, which came as a surprise.) He wanted to use his storytelling, he said, not necessarily to inspire hope or even anger, but to communicate what the planet faces. “Because you can’t talk about solutions until you understand the scope and scale,” he said. He is also skeptical, he said, of much of the sunny, solutions-minded messaging.

“It makes it feel like climate change is like a broken leg, “ he said. “With a broken leg, you’re in a cast for six or eight weeks. You suffer some pain, then you go back into your old life.” He doesn’t believe that’s the case here.

“We’re not going to fix this,” he said. “It’s going to be how do we manage to live in this new world.”

Imagining a Better Future

The fixes on offer in these recent works tend to be of the techno-futurist variety, trusting in human ingenuity. “A Brief History of the Future” also offers squishier solutions — empathy, community, trust. Sacrifice (unhopeful, unsexy) is rarely mentioned, or it’s the kind that a person in relative economic comfort can feel good about: eating less red meat, driving an electric car.

“Not the End of the World” is almost determinedly apolitical, though there is one mention of a populist campaign to ease air pollution and a polite reminder to vote for leaders who support sustainability. “I deliberately wanted to make this a very nonpartisan book,” Ritchie said. Introducing specific policies might have alienated some readers. “I feel like that would split my audience when I want to try to bring them together,” she said.

The desire to engage audiences across the political spectrum also motivated Murdoch. While there is one brief interview with President Emmanuel Macron of France and another with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the series is far more comfortable when discussing rewilding or kelp farming. “If we’re going to get there, we need everybody,” Murdoch said. “So part of this is to try to not have it be about politics, but really to be about the future.”

Can a better future arrive without political intervention? Fisher doesn’t think so. Her book, “Saving Ourselves: From Climate Shocks to Climate Action,” which she describes as a “data driven manifesto,” posits a world in which climate shocks become so great that they spur mass protest and force government and industry to transition to clean energy.

“It’s the most realistically hopeful way to think about where we get to the other side of the climate crisis,” she said.

That realism imagines a future of food scarcity, water scarcity, climate-spurred migration and increasing incidences of extreme weather. Fisher also predicts some level of mass death. “There’s no question that there are going to be lives lost,” she said. “Already lives are being lost.” Which may not sound especially optimistic.

But Fisher’s research has taught her to believe in, as she terms it, “people power.” She has found that people who have had a visceral experience of climate change are more likely to be angry and active rather than doomy and depressed.

“The whole point of apocalyptic optimism is being optimistic in a way that actually helps get us somewhere,” she said. “It’s not shiny and rosy and like cotton candy. It’s a bitter pill. But here we are and we can still do something.” In this sense, hope is a spur, a prod, an uncomfortable goad. And imagining a better future is a brave and even necessary act.

Storytelling — whether through fiction, documentary, data science or sociology, and however optimistic — might seem a limp response to the climate crisis. Narrative won’t stop coral bleaching or the leaking of methane from Arctic soil into the atmosphere. But it’s a tool that’s available, cheap and endlessly renewable. And as a society, we will not act on climate change until we’re convinced that our action is useful and urgent.

“In order to build a better world,” Ritchie said, “you need to be able to envision that one is possible.”

Alexis Soloski has written for The Times since 2006. As a culture reporter, she covers television, theater, movies, podcasts and new media. More about Alexis Soloski

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Home — Essay Samples — Environment — Water Scarcity — A Study on Water Privatization as a Solution to Water Scarcity

A Study on Water Privatization as a Solution to Water Scarcity

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Published: Dec 11, 2018

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