how to write economic research paper

The Young Economist’s Short Guide to Writing Economic Research

Attributes of writing economics.

• The discourse is often mathematical, with lots of formulas, lemmas, and proofs.
• Writing styles vary widely. Some authors are very dry and technical while a few are quite eloquent.

Economics writing is different from many other types of writing. It is essentially technical, and the primary goal is to achieve clarity. A clear presentation will allow the strength of your underlying analysis and the quality of your research to shine through.

Unlike prose writing in other disciplines, economics research takes time. Successful papers are not cranked out the night before a due date.

General Guidelines for Quality Research

Getting started.

The hardest part of any writing assignment is starting. Economics research usually begins with a strong understanding of literature, and papers require a section that summarizes and applies previous literature to what the paper at hand. This is the best way to start.

Your writing will demonstrate that you understand the findings that relate to the topic.

Economists use the first few paragraphs to set up research questions and the model and data they use to think about it. Sure, it can be dry, but this format ensures the write and reader have strong grasp on the subject and structure of the work that follows.

Clear and Concise Work

Clarity is hard to achieve, but revising and reworking a paper ensures it is easy to read

• Organize your ideas into an argument with the help of an outline.
• Define the important terms you will use
• State your hypothesis and proceed deductively to reach your conclusions
• Avoid excess verbiage
• Edit yourself, remove what is not needed, and keep revising until you get down to a simple, efficient way of communicating
• Use the active voice
• Put statements in positive form
• Omit needless words (concise writing is clear writing)
• In summaries, generally stick to one tense

Time Management

Poor time management can wreck the best-planned papers. Deadlines are key to successful research papers.

• Start the project by finding your topic
• Begin your research
• Start and outline
• Write a draft
• Revise and polish

The Language of Economic Analysis

Economic theory has become very mathematical. Most PhD students are mathematicians, not simply economics majors. This means most quality economic research requires a strong use of mathematical language. Economic analysis is characterized by the use of models, simplified representations of how economic phenomena work. A model’s predictions about the future or the past are essentially empirical hypotheses. Since economics is not easily tested in controlled experiments, research requires data from the real world (census reports, balance sheets), and statistical methods (regressions and econometrics) to test the predictive power of models and hypotheses based on those models.

The Writing Process

Finding a topic.

There are a million ways to find a topic. It may be that you are writing for a specific subfield of economics, so topics are limited and thus easier to pick. However, must research starts organically, from passive reading or striking news articles. Make sure to find something that interests you. Be sure to find a niche and make a contribution to the subfield.

You will also need a project that can be done within the parameters of the assignment (length, due date, access to research materials). A profoundly interesting topic may not be manageable given the time and other constraints you face. The key is to just be practical.

Be sure to start your research as soon as possible. Your topic will evolve along the way, and the question you begin with may become less interesting as new information draws you in other directions. It is perfectly fine to shape your topic based on available data, but don’t get caught up in endlessly revising topics.

Finding and Using Sources

There are two types of economic sources: empirical data (information that is or can be easily translated into numerical form), and academic literature (books and articles that help you organize your ideas).

Economic data is compiled into a number of useful secondary sources:

• Economic Report of the President
• Statistical Abstract of the United States
• National Longitudinal Survey
• Census data
• Academic journals

The Outline

A good outline acts as an agenda for the things you want to accomplish:

• Introduction: Pose an interesting question or problem
• Literature Review: Survey the literature on your topic
• Methods/Data: Formulate your hypothesis and describe your data
• Results: Present your results with the help of graphs and charts
• Discussion: Critique your method and/or discuss any policy implications
• Conclusions: Summarize what you have done; pose questions for further research

Writing a Literature Review

The literature review demonstrates your familiarity with scholarly work on your topic and lays the foundations for your paper. The particular issues you intent to raise, the terms you will employ, and the approach you will take should be defined with reference to previous scholarly works.

Presenting a Hypothesis

Formulate a question, problem or conjecture, and describe the approach you will take to answer, solve, or test it. In presenting your hypothesis, you need to discuss the data set you are using and the type of regression you will run. You should say where you found the data, and use a table, graph, or simple statistics to summarize them. In term papers, it may not be possible to reach conclusive results. Don’t be afraid to state this clearly and accurately. It is okay to have an inconclusive paper, but it is not okay to make overly broad and unsupported statements.

Presenting Results

There are essentially two decisions to make: (1) How many empirical results should be presented, and (2) How should these results be described in the text?

• Focus only on what is important and be as clear as possible. Both smart and dumb readers will appreciate you pointing things out directly and clearly.
• Less is usually more: Reporting a small group of relevant results is better than covering every possible statistical analysis that could be made on the data.
• Clearly and precisely describe your tables, graphs, and figures in the text of your results section. The first and last sentence in a paragraph describing a result should be “big picture” statements, describing how the results in the table, graph or figure fit into the overall theme of the paper.

Discussing Results

The key to discussing results is to stay clear of making value judgments, and rely instead on economic facts and analyses. It is not the job of an economist to draw policy conclusions, even if the research supports strong evidence in a particular direction.

Referencing Sources

As with any research paper, source referencing depends on the will of a professor a discourse community. However, economists generally use soft references in the literature review section and then cite sources in conventional formats at the end of papers.

This guide was made possible by the excellent work of Robert Neugeboren and Mireille Jacobson of Harvard University and Paul Dudenhefer of Duke University.

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Writing Tips for Economics Research Papers

This guide overviews several important rules for writing economics research papers. It focuses on three important pillars of economics writing: research, organization, and analysis. Economic research entails the use of state-of-the-art methods and data from any of a number of standard statistical sources or surveys. Organization entails organizing ideas coherently and persuasively, outlining the paper, and professional formatting. The final part focuses on the importance of analysis for economics writing: statistical or econometric analysis takes data and reports useful numerical summaries used to shed light on empirical relationships between important economic variables, test various economic models, or make predictions for the future.

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• Writing Tips for Economics Research Papers – 2021-2022 Edition

February 2022

IZA DP No. 15057: Writing Tips for Economics Research Papers – 2021-2022 Edition

an updated version of this paper is published as DP16276

This document summarizes various tips for economics research papers.

• writing tips
• research papers
• research studies

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Kristin A. Van Gaasbeck

Department of economics, college of social sciences and interdisciplinary studies, california state university, sacramento, writing in economics :: components of a research paper.

An economics research paper includes the parts listed below. Some of these may be, and often are, combined into sections of the research paper. Depending on the nature of the research question, some parts may be emphasized more than others.

I've condensed information from several different sources. This is cursory content on how to write in economics, please make use of the additional resources . Also, every researcher has his or her own opinion about the best way to proceed. The information I've collected below is one of many possible ways to approach an undergraduate or graduate research project in Economics.

The abstract is a description of your research paper. The writing style of the abstract is very condensed - it should be no more than 350 words (or 5-6 sentences). The abstract is designed to identify the following to a potential reader:

• The research question What is the question that is the focus of your research? A good research question is one that (i) doesn't have an obvious answer (otherwise, why bother researching it?) and (ii) is testable using data.
• Your contribution to the research on the subject What has the previous literature found and what is your contribution to general understanding of the economic problem/question.
• How you answer the research question How you use theoretical and/or empirical analysis to answer the research question.
• Results Your findings based on the aforementioned analysis

The abstract is written when the paper is completed. It should not be the same as your introduction - the audience is different.

Introduction

The introduction is designed to both identify and motivate your research question. Like an essay you would write in other subjects, the introduction begins with a broad statement, and then narrows down to your specific research question.

In the end, make sure that you've done the following in your introduction:

• State your research question
• Motivate why the subject of your research is important to economists and other stakeholders
• Explain to the reader where your research fits into the subject.
• Identify your contribution to general understanding on the subject/research question
• Summarize how you intend to answer the research question
• State your general results and answer to your research question.

The first paragraph of the introduction is used to motivate why this research is important and of interest to economists and other stakeholders (e.g., parents and teachers in education economics, central bankers in monetary policy, and residents and businesses affected by pollution). It may conclude with a statement of your research question, followed by a discussion of who is affected by the economic issue under study. It is not appropriate to include personal anecdotes in a written research paper. Remember, you are motivating why the research should be of interest to the reader.

The second paragraph typically has more detail about how you plan to answer the research question, possibly citing other work closely related to your own research. In fact, many authors combine the literature review with the introduction in order to streamline this discussion. This paragraph may conclude with your general findings.

You should be able to write the first paragraph when you begin your research. The second paragraph can be written as you are concluding your research, as it draws on information from subsequent sections of your paper.

Literature Review

The literature review serves two main purposes:

• motivate why your research question is important in the context of the broader subject
• provide the reader with information on what other researchers have found (highlighting your contribution)

If someone has done a similar analysis to yours, tell us, and then explain how yours is different. Explain their findings, and then follow up with what you expect to find in your own research, and compare.

Some things to keep in mind for your literature review:

• Conduct a comprehensive search of the research on your subject Familiarize yourself with search engines in Economics (ECONLit is the most comprehensive) - do not rely on Google or other general search engines because they will link to you information that is not peer-reviewed research. A good general rule is as follows: if it is a paper not listed on ECONLit, it is probably not appropriate for a research paper in economics. Of course, there are exceptions. See my ECON 145 resources for more information on search engines .
• Create an annotated bibliography for the papers you plan to cite in your research paper. More information on annotated bibliographies is given below . This is a good step to take early on in your literature review search because it helps you keep track of the papers you plan to cite, and helps you to summarize information in one place. This will help you with the subsequent steps below.
• Identify which papers are most relevant to your research question It is easy to find lots of articles on one topic, but difficult to sort out which ones are important and relevant to your specific topic. You need to find the most relevant articles for your topic, and tell the reader why these are relevant articles for your topic specifically.
• Make an outline of your literature review Write an outline of your literature review. When writing your literature review, you want to organize the research of others into themes that you want to convey to the reader. Do not simply list papers chronologically and summarize the results of others. You should group papers by common themes.
• Critically read research papers You cannot read research papers like novels or the newspaper. Economics research papers are often dense and technical, requiring carefully reading. If you are not actively engaged as a reader, taking notes and writing questions to yourself as you go along, you are making poor use of your time and will not get much out of your literature review. See my page on Critical Reading for more information on strategies for how to read economics research papers.
• Be aware of plagiarism. This is very difficult for the novice researcher because some information is generally taken as known, while other information is not. The best way to get a sense for how to appropriately cite and attribute material is to read economics research articles. Avoiding plagiarism doesn't mean rewriting someone else's ideas in your own words. If you are using someone else's idea, whether in quotes or not, you must cite it. When in doubt, cite.
• common research questions in the subject (introduction),
• economic models used to answer related research questions (economic model),
• empirical methodologies common in the field (empirical methodology),
• data sources you may use in your analysis (data description),
• how to report your results (empirical analysis), and
• how to identify your contribution to understanding of the research question/subject (conclusion/analysis).

Economic Model/Empirical Methodology

This section (or sections) or your paper are designed to show how you intend to answer your research question using economic theory (economic model) and empirically (using statistical tests). For the novice researcher, it is useful to think of these two approaches as separate. This avoids the temptation to confuse them.

Economic Model

This is what you have studied in most of your other economics classes. For example, what happens to the price of housing when the population increases? Using demand-supply model, we know that an increase in population leads to an increase in the demand for housing, increasing the equilibrium price. In reading economics research papers, the economic model is often not identified because it is assumed the reader (economic researchers) are familiar with the underlying model. However, to the novice researcher, the model may not be obvious, so it is important to outline the model and include it in your research paper.

Your economic model is how you make predictions of what you expect to find in the data. Based on the simple example above, we'd expect to see a positive relationship between housing prices and population, ceteris paribus (e.g., holding all other variables in the demand-supply model unchanged).

Another important point is that your economic model is what implies a causal relationship between the economic variables. While you may detect a positive or negative relationship in the data, this alone tells you nothing about which variable is causing a change in the other variable. The economic model can be used to model this relationship. In the example above, we assume that in the model, a change in population causes a change in the housing price.

The economic model should make no mention of data, regression analysis, or statistical tests. The model is a purely theoretical construct, based on an abstract notion of how the world works. The empirical methodology section of your paper is how you plan to test these relationships in the data. An economic model is NOT a regression equation.

Finally, you should use an economic model that is common in the literature on your subject. Unless you are proposing a new model, you should rely on those used by other researchers in the field. This will allow you to use your literature review to justify your choice of model. Also, this is why the economic model is often embedded in the literature review of the paper. For novice researchers, I recommend keeping it separate, to make sure you understand how to use your economic model to conduct theoretical analysis.

Empirical Methodology

This is where you describe to the reader how you plan to test the relationships implied by your economic/theoretical model. First, you want to identify your dependent variable. This is the variable you are seeking to explain the behavior of. Next, you want to identify possible explanatory variables. These are the variables that could potentially affect your dependent variable.

Often in economic models, there are abstract notions of how some variables affect others. For example, human capital affects production, but how would we measure human capital in the data? You can find suitable proxies for a variable like human capital by familiarizing yourself with the literature.

So, how could a researcher go about testing the relationship between housing prices and population? First, we know that housing price is the dependent variable. Population is one explanatory variable, but are there others that affect housing prices? Yes. We know this from the demand and supply model that there are other variables that shift demand for housing (income, prices of substitutes and complements, expectations, tastes and preferences, etc.) and the supply of housing (input costs, expectations, the number of sellers, etc.). In order to isolate the effect of population on house price, we need to control for these other factors.

The most common strategy for empirical work regression analysis because it allows the researcher to isolate the correlation between two variables, while holding other explanatory variables constant (e.g., ceteris paribus from the model above). Often in the empirical methodology section, the researcher will point out potential estimation issues, highlighting the need for more advanced econometric techniques that go beyond ordinary least squares (OLS).

This section does not actually do any statistical analysis, but it may include a description of the data (see below). In advising students on research papers, I usually recommend the following breakdown for the empirical methodology section:

• Data description This is a description of the data you plan to use for your analysis. It usually includes a citation of the primary source, data frequency, how the data are measured, the frequency of the data, etc. The amount of detail depends on the nature of the data. Also, this is the section where you would report any modifications you make to the data.
• Preliminary data analysis This section reports summary statistics, histograms, time series plots, and other similar information. This section is designed to give the reader a sense of what your sample looks like. In reporting this information, you should be selective - more is not always better. You need to decide which information you need/want to convey to the reader and how to best convey it. See my Empirical Methods in Economics page for ideas on basic statistical analysis.
• Regression Equation Now, you're ready to remind the reader of your particular test and how you are going to go about using regression to test it. This section should include a regression equation, a discussion justifying this equation, and a description of the expected signs on the coefficients for each of the explanatory variables (spending more time on those that are of particular interest for your study). Remember, the regression coefficient measure the marginal effects of the explanatory variable on the dependent variable (holding the other variables constant, ceteris paribus). When justifying your regression equation and discussing the expected signs for the coefficients, you should make some clear connections back to your theory section and the literature review section of your paper. Also, make sure that you are using your regression equation to answer your research question. What is the testable hypothesis? Does this test answer your research question? See my Empirical Methods in Economics page for a simple primer on regression analysis.

Data Description

An alternative to the ordering mentioned above is as follows. You can begin with a regression equation, then provide a detailed description of the data, along with some preliminary data analysis. It is most common to have the data description as its own section of the paper - mainly to make it easier for readers to reference it if they plan to do similar research. You could then follow this Data section with an Empirical Methodology section that consists of the #3 Regression equation described above.

Empirical Analysis

This section is often titled "Results" in economic research papers, as it reports the results from your regression analysis above. There are commonly-used templates for reporting regression results. The best way to familiarize yourself with these templates is from the papers you cite in your literature review. You will see that it is common to report multiple regressions in one table, with the explanatory variables listed vertically on the left. See my page on Empirical Methods in Economics for more details.

The empirical analysis should include a table with your regression results, and your written analysis of these results. Note, this does not mean repeating the information in your regression tables. It means interpreting these coefficients in light of your economic model and comparing your findings to other papers from your literature review.

The conclusion usually consists of about three paragraphs. The first begins with a restatement of the research question, followed by a description of what we know about this research question from the literature (very concisely). Then the paragraph concludes with a brief description of the theoretical answer to the question.

The second paragraph begins with an answer to the research question, based on your empirical analysis. The researcher then proceeds to compare his/her findings to the consensus in the literature, pointing out possible reasons for differences and similarities. For example, perhaps you studied a different time period, or a different country. Perhaps you used a different measure of the dependent or explanatory variables.

In the final paragraph, it is common to draw policy implications from your research. In a practical sense, who cares about this research question (remember the stakeholders from the introduction..) and what can they do with this knowledge? Often the conclusion will point toward directions for future research, based on possible extensions to your research.

Bibliography/References

The bibliography contains complete references of the works that cited and referred to in your research.

It is essential that you give proper credit to all works that you cite, even if they are not included in your literature review. For example, if you obtained data from a publication that is not easily available, it would be appropriate to cite it in your data description and include it in your bibliography. Incomplete or inaccurate citations are akin to plagiarism, so please be sure to carefully check your references and keep track of them while completing your literature review.

In economics, it is most common to use APA style in citing references in the text of your paper and in creating a bibliography. For more information, see the APA style guide provided by the Library , or simply pick up a copy of the APA style guide if you will be using it frequently.

Annotated Bibliography An annotated bibliography is one that includes the reference (mentioned above), along with a few sentences describing the research and how it relates to your research paper. Often the description will begin with a statement of what the research found, followed by one or two sentences that are relevant to the research question you are studying.

Even though APA style calls for a double-spaced annotated bibliography, many researchers prefer a single spaced one. The Library has information on annotated bibliographies and I have posted an outstanding example from undergraduate Economic Research Methods .

The best annotated bibliographies are those written by students who have read the literature critically. See my page on Critical Reading for more information on strategies for how to read economics research papers. Even if an annotated bibliography is not assigned as part of your research project, it is a useful exercise for you to engage in, especially if you have to present your research orally or using a poster. If you are unable to write an annotated bibliography, then you are probably writing a poor review of the literature on your subject and a less than satisfactory research paper.

ECON 4370: Econometrics

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Guides and Examples of econometrics paper for undergrads

• Econometric Analysis Undergraduate Research Papers: Georgia Tech Library
• Format for an Econometrics Paper: Skidmore College
• Research Paper in Introductory Econometrics: Carleton College
• Writing in Economics: Duke University
• The Young Economist’s Short Guide to Writing Economic Research: Pomona College
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Writing a College Paper – The List of Economics Topics to Consider

27 October, 2021

12 minutes read

Author:  Kate Smith

If you are studying Economics, at some point in your student life you will get an essay or a research paper to complete. Most likely, you will have to write many of such papers in different subjects during four years of undergraduate studies and then during your Master’s. Besides this, you will have to write a degree paper to get your qualification. If such a perspective already makes you nervous, don’t worry: we will help you to get through these tasks. In this guide, we will make the definition of an Economics research paper clear to you, and also explain how to choose the best topic for writing. We will also share the latest Economics topics so that you can use them to complete your assignments.

What Is an Economics Research Paper?

First of all, let’s find out what an Economics research paper is. An Economics research paper is an academic work written by students, graduates, or researchers of either of the Economics subfields. It aims to contribute to the current state of economics and help resolve potential economic issues.

There are a few types of Economics research papers you need to know. Below, you can find them and understand what kind of assignment you were given and how to approach it:

• Theoretical paper. The first type of Economics research paper is a theoretical one. While writing it, one needs to construct mathematical models to understand economic behavior. Graphical models are also possible to use in theoretical papers. But you don’t need to worry about writing them: due to their complexity, they are rarely required from undergraduate students;
• A literature survey. This is a paper that aims to review many sources on certain Economics topics that are interesting to an essay writer , compare them, and find links between them. Writing an Economics literature survey requires selecting the relevant sources on your own and reading a lot to produce a thoughtful paper.
• An empirical paper. When writing an empirical paper, a researcher needs to provide statistical data to prove or disprove their hypothesis. Also, such a paper often makes up a literature survey as its first part. Empirical papers are a popular type of assignment in colleges and universities;
• An issue paper. This paper deals with a certain position stated on a policy question. To resolve the issue, a student needs to use economic analysis and provide data to prove their point of view. You can base your analysis on the information received in classes, in additional reading, etc. Feel free to use graphs and tables in your paper as well. The more scholarly sources you find, the better;
• A case note. The last type of economic paper is a case note. This assignment deals with a certain legal case that needs to be assessed from an economic and legal point of view. In this paper, a student needs to describe the peculiarities of the case, the incident that led to a certain legal action, the procedure of investigation, and the court decision on the matter. The economic analysis is used to evaluate the relevant aspects of a court decision from an economics perspective.

A Quick Guide in Choosing the Right Topic

Now that you know the types of economic research papers, you need to understand how to choose the right economics papers topics. This is one of the most important stages of writing preparation, so pay close attention to the tips below:

• Find out what interests you the most in Economics subjects. For some reason, you have chosen Economics among dozens of other majors, so try to remember why you did it. Then, remember those economic problems you were about to resolve once you become an economist. These issues can be used as your potential Economics research paper topics;
• Create a list of the Economic topics to write about. Write down all the issues you’d like to explore while pursuing your degree in Economics. At the moment, don’t try to develop them in detail. You will do it a bit later;
• Pick a few topics that fall into the scope of a particular subject. Once you have the list of potentially interesting Economic topics, think about their relevance for the particular course you are studying. Do any of them sound reasonable for your current assignment? Mark them on your list if they do;
• Read background information on each of the topics. This step is required to understand how well these topics were researched before and how many sources you can find to base your reasoning on. Don’t omit this stage since it’s essential for writing a good paper on engaging and interesting topics in Economics;
• Discuss the chosen Economic research topics with your instructor. Now it’s time to ask your instructor to take a look at the topics of your interest and evaluate which ones fit your academic requirements best. Then, narrow down your topic to a certain issue to make your paper concrete. At this point, consider asking any questions you have regarding your research, scholarly sources, and formatting guidelines.
• Approve your topic and start working on it. Now, pick any of the economic research paper topics from our lists for instructor’s approval and start gathering references for them.

20 Undergraduates Economics Topics for Research

• The history of economic thought: from Ancient Times to the Medieval period.
• The breakthroughs in economic thought in the 20th century.
• The history of American economic thought.
• How can governments benefit from the law of self-interest?
• The law of competition: is it a major driver of the state economy?
• Role of agriculture in building a stable economy.
• The cultural heritage from an economic perspective: how can states benefit from it?
• Factors of unemployment in South America.
• Overcoming poverty in Venezuela: what can its government do in 2023?
• How does literacy influence a country’s economic success?
• Corporate social responsibility and economics: how do they correlate?
• The role of economic forecasting in building a steadfast economy?
• The structure of the USA market.
• The analysis of the workforce economics in Canada.
• Predicting the GDP of Mexico in the next five years.
• How does a stable economy help to reduce hunger?
• The importance of health insurance for wageworkers.
• The effect of chronic diseases on the middle-aged workforce in the USA.
• Is free health care beneficial for governments?
• The international trade in the 21st century: challenges and priorities.

20 Economic Debate Topics

• Pros and cons of taxes: is it still reasonable to pay them in the 21st century?
• The process of production: demand vs. supply.
• Should the government take control over the state economy?
• How can the government influence the labor market within the state?
• Capitalism vs socialism: a comparative analysis.
• Being an employer or an employee: the challenges and advantages.
• Remote work vs office work from the state economics perspective: pros and cons.
• The pros and cons of privatization of property.
• Why do governments implement neoliberal economic reforms in developing countries?
• Should Americans buy only made in USA products or imported ones?
• Should governments implement taxes for the rich?
• Should the USA compete with China?
• Credit cards should not be issued to those with low income.
• How are democracy and capitalism interconnected?
• How does war impact economic growth?
• Governments should cancel income tax: pros and cons.
• A perfect market cannot be reached anywhere in the world.
• Advantages of equal taxes for all American citizens.
• Greece’s exit from the EU did not impact other EU members.
• Homeschooling is more beneficial economically than studying in the classroom.

20 Interesting Behavioral Economics Research Topics

• Macy’s case study: the behavioral economics of discounting.
• The decoy effect and pricing: how corporations make people buy more.
• The benefits for American society from behavioral economics theory.
• The buying motivation of consumers from a behavioral economics point of view.
• The concept of the economy of trust.
• Uber case study as an example of the economy of trust.
• How consumption makes people happy and why.
• The phenomenon of shopaholism and its impact on modern world economics.
• How behavioral economists assess marketing: a detailed review.
• How to apply the theory of behavioral economics to real-life problem-solving?
• Behavioral economics as a discipline: the methods and peculiarities of teaching. 
• Applying behavioral economics to environment protection: approaches and challenges.
• How can entrepreneurs benefit from behavioral economics theory in the UK?
• Why is conscious consumption good for the environment?
• Can behavioral economics principles be used to manage substance abuse in the USA?
• The impact of inflation on the consumer’s buying motivation.
• Cooperative behavior on criminals and police: a comparative analysis.
• Strategic reasoning.
• Studying morality and social preferences: how do they correlate?
• The concept of prospect theory and reference dependence.

20 Microeconomics Topics

• The methodology of Microeconomics.
• How marital status impacts the workforce composition in France.
• Analyzing consumer behavior trends: how the consumption attitude changed over the last 20 years.
• The market and competition concepts: how do they correlate?
• The sources and outcomes of inflation.
• How does competition impact pricing?
• Finding the demand and supply balance through a microeconomics perspective.
• Product expenses and profit explanation: how to spend less and get more out of goods production?
• The concept of perfect competition in microeconomics (with examples).
• Peculiarities of stock market work.
• Finding links between income changes and consumer choice.
• The correlation between salary level and economic convergence in Germany.
• The impact of demonetization on small and medium businesses.
• Salary inequalities in Virginia, USA: why do they exist and what forces are behind them?
• The concept of economics of uncertainty.
• What is the imperfect competition?
• Explaining the theory of production and its application to real-life cases.
• Studying microeconomics: the methodology of research.
• The economic nature of a firm: what purpose do we try to achieve by starting a small business?
• What is a natural monopoly and how is it regulated in the USA and Latin America?

20 Current Economic Topics

• Starting a business in pandemic times: challenges and outcomes.
• How hiring remote workers can save the state economy during COVID times?
• How to measure the state’s economic growth during a pandemic?
• How does gender influence buying capacity?
• The ways to lower consumption in the 21st century.
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How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

• Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
• Paul Swartz

In this article, adapted from the forthcoming book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms, the authors explain how economic analysis works in the real world. They lay out three principles for navigating the rising number of economic risks: (1) Don’t put too much stock in any one economic model. (2) Ignore the doomsayers in the financial press. (3) Cultivate rational optimism and an eclectic form of judgment that draws on multiple sources. That involves identifying the critical drivers of potential risk, building a narrative, and pressure-testing it from multiple perspectives.

The “dismal science” of economics and our clickbait culture of public discourse are a perfect match to fuel simplistic narratives of doom. To avoid false alarms and achieve a true assessment of macroeconomic risks, the authors write, leaders should look past both to reclaim their own judgment.

Models and forecasts can be seductive, but it’s time for executives to reclaim their economic judgment.

Idea in Brief

The situation.

After decades of relative calm, macroeconomic shocks and crises are dominating headlines and complicating corporate strategy. Unfortunately, the field of macroeconomics is of little help. If anything, it has contributed to the problem, by inviting knee-jerk and too-confident reactions to volatile dataflow.

Why It Persists

No economic model succeeded in predicting the shocks of the past five years while avoiding the false alarms. Models and their forecasts are least reliable when they are most needed: in times of crisis. But when the economy is in free fall, executives are understandably desperate for guidance as to what might happen next.

The Solution

In this article the authors outline how leaders can cultivate their judgment—and use it to see past negative headlines, to draw on diverse sources, to identify key causal narratives, and ultimately to make better calls.

Over the past five years corporate leaders and investors have had to digest a rapid succession of macroeconomic shocks, crises—and false alarms. In 2020, when the pandemic delivered an intense recession, leaders were told it would be worse than 2008 and potentially as bad as the Great Depression. Instead a fast and strong recovery unfolded. In 2021, when supply bottlenecks and strong demand sent prices soaring, a common view was that runaway inflation would take us back to the ugly 1970s. Instead inflation fell from 9.1% to just above 3% in a year. In 2022, when U.S. interest rates climbed, a cascade of emerging-market defaults were predicted—but they didn’t materialize. Also in 2022, and again in 2023, public discourse cast an imminent recession as “inevitable.” Instead a resilient U.S. economy not only defied the doomsayers but delivered strong growth.

• Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New York office and the firm’s global chief economist. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).
• Paul Swartz  is an executive director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

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