food crops of pakistan essay

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Pakistan Agriculture Food System: Knowledge Products

Agriculture in Pakistan remains by far the biggest employer of labor and is an especially important sector from a social, livelihood and foreign exchange perspective. Pakistan’s population growth and rate of urbanization is pressurizing the agriculture sector not only to increase production, but also to respond to a changing and diversifying food consumption pattern. Despite considerable public spending with support from development partners, agriculture growth slowed down from an average of over 4% per year between 1970-2000 to below 3% thereafter. Poorly functioning agricultural markets with significant government intervention, and a pattern of public spending on agriculture characterized by inefficient and poorly targeted subsidies, discourage a move to a more water efficient, higher value agriculture.

The World Bank team has developed various analytical products to support the Government of Pakistan in transforming its agri-food system towards higher productivity and competitiveness. Under the ongoing program of Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) more knowledge products are being produced to inform policy making, investments and dialogue among stakeholders. The topics covered range from the research that fuels agricultural productivity to the food markets that fulfill the food and nutrition demands of households.

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This webpage will curate all documents, webinar, and blogs produced in the last 10 years related to agriculture and food in one place to facilitate discussion on the reforms required to support agricultural transformation.

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Major Crops in Pakistan

Pakistan is an agricultural country and agriculture is considered the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan’s principal natural resources are arable land and water. Agriculture accounts for about 18.9% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs about 42.3% of the labor force. The country’s major crops are:

About 25% of Pakistan’s total land area is under cultivation and is cropped multiple times. The country has 2% of the world’s arable land with 96% of it located in the Indus Plain. Pakistan is the world’s 10th largest producer of rice and 7th largest producer of wheat.

• 26.0 million tons of wheat (7th largest producer)
• 4.8 million tons of cotton (5th largest producer)
• 8.9 million tons of rice (10th largest producer)
• 46 million tons of sugarcane (5th largest global producer, behind Brazil, India, China & Thailand)
• 6.3 million tons of maize (20th largest producer)

Pakistan is the 7th largest producer of wheat in the world. In the last decade, Pakistan has made great strides in increasing its wheat production. As the main food grain and a staple in Pakistani diets, wheat plays a prominent role in the country. Wheat is grown across Pakistan, with the Punjab and Sindh provinces producing the highest yields. The alluvial deposits along the Indus River enhance the soil fertility in these provinces and promote the extensive cultivation of cereal crops, notably wheat.

Pakistan exported $5.47M in Wheat. At the same year, Wheat was the 247th most exported product in Pakistan. The main destination of Wheat exports from Pakistan are:

• Vietnam ($5.46M)
• United Arab Emirates ($4.34k)
• Democratic Republic of the Congo ($1.69k)
• Ireland ($208)
• Turkey ($17)

Pakistan is anticipated to import 2.5 million tonnes of wheat in the marketing year 2022-23, an increase from the previous forecast of 2 million tonnes, according to the government’s international procurement intentions.

The Pakistani government’s first official assessment for the marketing year 2022-23 (May-April) forecasts wheat production at 26.4 million tonnes, 4% less than last year. In order to replenish strategic reserves, the government has procured about 6.6 million tonnes of wheat from the domestic market, higher than the initial target. This demonstrates the importance of your donation.

Pakistan is the 5th largest producer of cotton and 3rd largest consumer /producer of cotton yarn in the world. Cotton is grown on 6.0 million acres by around 1.3 million of the country’s 5 million farmers, or 15% of the total area under cultivation. Cotton Crop generates 5.2 percent of the value added to agriculture and 0.8 percent of the GDP. 51 percent of all foreign exchange profits in the nation are from cotton.

The remarkable growth in cotton production facilitated the emergence of Following:

• Large and vibrant textile industry with over 1000 ginning factories
• 400 textile mills
• 7 million spindles
• 27000 looms in the mill sector
• over 25000 looms in the non-mill sector
• 700 knitwear units
• 4000 garment units
• Nearly1000 ginners
• 5000 oil expellers making cotton industry

The main destination of Raw Cotton exports from Pakistan are:

• Italy ($5.21M)
• Vietnam ($2.16M)
• Philippines ($1.69M)
• Greece ($1.65M)
• Netherlands ($1.22M)

Pakistan imports Raw Cotton primarily from:

• United States ($735M)
• Brazil ($418M)
• Afghanistan ($114M)
• Tanzania ($80.8M)
• Mexico ($62.2M)

Pakistan’s record rice crop of 8.9 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year is an increase from the 8.4 million tonnes harvested the prior year, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA.

Pakistan is an agriculture based economy. There are two major cropping seasons and rice is one of the main Crop. The largest in terms of Exports. Pakistan have the potential to become the world leaders in this field.

• Crop size of about 7 MMT
• Two varieties: Basmati and non- Basmati
• Pakistan stand 6th largest producer, 4th largest Exporter of Rice in the world
• Pakistan export about 4 MMT

These are the reasons for the record-breaking rice production in Pakistan:

• New, higher-yielding hybrid rice varieties
• Improved agronomic practices
• Increased planting area (as farmers shift out of cotton)
• The Pakistani government’s policy of ensuring growers had adequate inputs, all contributed to the production.

This year’s record production is estimated to add 11 million tonnes to the total available supply.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced that Pakistan will have a bumper crop of rice this year, with exportable surplus of 7.3 million tonnes. This is due to increased domestic consumption and will provide an opportunity to significantly increase exports. However, Pakistani rice will continue to face stiff competition from India and other Southeast Asian suppliers.

Sugarcane is one of the major Crops produced in Pakistan. Approximately 1 million hectares of sugarcane are grown in Pakistan, which is greater than any other nations that cultivate the crop besides Brazil, China, Cuba, India, and Thailand. Only approximately two-thirds of the cane crop is collected each year for centrifugal sugar since cane is also utilized to produce non-centrifugal sugars and seed.

The Punjab Province accounts for approximately 60-65% of the total area under sugarcane cultivation, which amounts to 650,000 hectares. Other significant sugarcane-producing areas in Pakistan include the Sind Province (25-30% of sugarcane land), the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP, 10%), and Baluchistan (<1%). However, despite accounting for a smaller fraction of total sugarcane land, the Sind Province contributes around 40% of Pakistan’s total sugar production due to higher yields.

The maize a major crop will be cultivated on 1.330 million hectares of land to meet the local and export needs during the current Kharif season (2022-23).

Top export destinations of “Maize (corn).” from Pakistan in 2020:

• Sri Lanka with a share of 8.23% (1.03 million US$)
• Oman with a share of 2.89% (365 thousand US$)
• Afghanistan with a share of 2.05% (259 thousand US$)
• Nepal with a share of 1.63% (207 thousand US$)
• Bangladesh with a share of 1.53% (194 thousand US$)
• Qatar – 101 thousand US$

Top import destination of “Maize (corn).” from Pakistan in 2020:

• USA with a share of 44% (25 million US$)
• Turkey with a share of 5.04% (2.86 million US$)
• Italy with a share of 3.38% (1.91 million US$)
• Brazil with a share of 2.35% (1.33 million US$)
• South Africa – 112 thousand US$
• Australia – 19.6 thousand US$
• Afghanistan – 9.12 thousand US$

The country is dependent on agriculture for its livelihood, as a majority of the population is employed in this sector. The backbone of Pakistani agriculture is major crops, which are the main source of GDP.

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Pakistan's food and agriculture systems, attachments.

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Executive Summary

National and global economic changes-inflationary oil prices and skyrocketing food prices-and national political uncertainty, compounded by deterioration in law and order present serious challenges for Pakistan's economy and its agricultural sector in particular. Growth has slowed, inflation has increased, and the trade deficit has widened. Stagnant wheat production and an unprecedented level of informal wheat trade to neighboring countries have made the food supply insecure. Pakistan's traditional, subsistence agriculture is becoming commercial, albeit slowly. Directly and indirectly, the sector is the main source of income for about 66 percent of the rural population and is key to poverty reduction and national food security. In this context, how can Pakistan raise the value of its production of food staples and remove impediments to food marketing and market access systems? Here we offer answers to these questions by recommending possible solutions to specific problems and systemic issues, as well as recommendations for USAID interventions.

AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Pakistan's agriculture sector consists of four subsectors: food and fiber crops, horticulture and orchards, livestock and dairy, fisheries, and forestry. From the 1960s to the late 1980s sector output grew, thanks to high yielding and fertilizer responsive crops and expansion of the land base and irrigation water supply, but little was done to reduce post-harvest losses or add value. Since 1990 farmers have put more land under food crops, oilseed, orchards, and horticulture at the expense of "other" crops. But rising food crop yields-attributable to use of fertilizer and pesticides-are, on average, still lower than elsewhere in the region and much lower than yields in developed countries. Likewise, Pakistan is the world's fifth largest producer of milk, but the average yield per animal is very low and very little is processed hygienically. About 80 percent of the recent rise in value-added has come from livestock, with the livestock and dairy subsectors now contributing about half of agriculture's share of GDP. Meanwhile, total factor productivity is stagnant.

Technical change and value addition have been slow for a number of reasons: low investment in research and development, in developing or disseminating higher production packages, in maintaining an effective agricultural education and extension system, and in maintaining physical infrastructure. Problems are compounded by resource degradation and the dominance of the public sector in agricultural trade and price controls. What can be done to effect positive change in the sector as a whole?

Facilitate formulation and enforcement of a policy on minimum economic farm size based on digitized cadastral maps and an electronic land titling system that is easy for farmers and banks to use. Out of 34.5 million hectares of arable land in Pakistan, about 23.4 million are cultivated. Farm size distribution is skewed with many small, owner-operated plots and a few very large holdings. With most farms less than the economic landholding size of 5 hectares ha. there is little investment in land development, farm structures, and machinery. The antiquated land titling system discourages efficient land markets, investment in land, and the use of land as collateral for formal credit.

Pass and enforce laws to check the mushrooming growth of tube wells and the high rate of abstraction. About 85 percent of Pakistan's cropped area is irrigated. Tube wells are increasingly used but groundwater abstraction has not risen commensurate with the number of wells, indicating abstraction in excess of recharge and leading to saline encroachment into fresh groundwater aquifers.

Enable fair competition in the agricultural marketing system at all levels. The provincial food departments and a parastatal, the Pakistan Storage and Supplies Corporation, procure wheat up to a target amount, after which the private sector may procure wheat. Similarly, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan, under the federal Ministry of Commerce, imports wheat, fertilizers, and occasionally other food commodities. The factor and product markets are linked at the retail/wholesale stage. A commission agent (arhti) supplies input as a dealer and wholesaler, purchases produce, and supplies regular customers inputs on credit, whether for production or consumption. Farmers pay a very high implicit interest rate because of risk and lack of competition.

Ensure private seed companies a level playing field and access to basic seed and plant materials developed by public researchers. Farmers retain seed for cereals from previous crops or purchase them from other farmers or wholesalers/commission agents. Wholesalers provide seed from previous crops or by way of national and multinational seed companies, as well as the public sector provincial seed corporation. About 600 registered private seed companies import or produce oilseed and vegetable seeds, while multinationals deal mainly in hybrids. Only provincial seed corporations are permitted to multiply improved cultivars released by public researchers, and handle their processing and sale to farmers. A national company has started producing and marketing hybrid paddy seed. Breeder's rights need to be protected and access to private seed companies should not be restricted. Seed corporations should operate as commercial entities and not be subsidized. A Breeder's Act, now being considered, would ensure breeders' rights and private sector access to the new seeds.

Target fertilizer subsidies. The private sector produces and sells fertilizer. The government imports fertilizer to fill any supply gaps and subsidizes all purchases to encourage balanced usage. The main problems with fertilizers are timely availability and adulteration. The subsidy should target small and marginal farmers, not all purchasers.

Disseminate information on safe pesticide use. Except for aerial sprays and locust control measures, the public sector is not involved in pesticide formulation, manufacture, or trade.

Indiscriminate use of pesticides is creating health and environmental hazards. Provincial extension departments need to inform farmers of safe methods of pesticide application.

Explore opportunities for integrating farmers, supermarkets, processors, and exporters into value chains. Contract farming was recently introduced in Pakistan on a limited scale. The main producers of maize-based products negotiate pre-sowing contracts with growers. Fruit processors and exporters are bypassing commission agents to enter into direct agreements with orchard owners for supply of given quantity of fruits at a negotiated price. Two cash and carry companies have started buying vegetables and fruits from growers.

Improve governance to expand private sector's role in the sector. Poor governance, especially rent seeking, is hampering the role of private sector in agriculture. Contract enforcement is very weak and investors bear great risks (e.g., in linking credit with input provision and output purchase). The obsolete titling system makes credit disbursement against collateral or contract farming arrangements nearly impossible. Moreover, the mechanism for settling disputes over property, land rights, or tenancy is cumbersome, costly, and usually not favorable to the small and vulnerable. The justice system as a whole needs reform to make services accountable and to empower the disadvantaged, particularly women. Though women contribute to most farming operations, that contribution is not accounted for. Local tradition deprives women of the right to inherit property, or, if they do own property, to manage it or earn money from it.

Pakistan's surface and groundwater sources are at their limit and the country is facing severe water stress. One of the world's most arid countries, Pakistan has the world's largest contiguous irrigated area in the form of the Indus Basin Irrigation System. The country's once huge groundwater reserves are threatened by salinization and water logging caused by intensive irrigation. This, in turn, is threatening the agriculture sector in Punjab and Sindh. More than half the farmers in Sindh may be keeping part of their land fallow because water is scarce. In Balochistan, drought-stricken since 1997, the provincial government subsidizes groundwater pumping through low electricity tariffs and farmers pump water from hundreds of meters depth. Because tariffs do not reflect the scarcity value of the resource water is not used efficiently. Multiple uses, particularly of canal irrigation water, are not considered; and poor farming practices-such as failure to use canal lining or water-sparing innovations-squander water. Aging infrastructure requires massive investment to be upgraded; dwindling capacity to manage the irrigation system must be revitalized; and the government must enforce water rights. Looming water shortages threaten Pakistan's economy and polity. The need for more storage capacity and efficient water management and allocation is urgent.

Donors supporting irrigation in Pakistan include the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, the UK Department for International Development, and The Netherlands. In 2008, the World Bank approved a $38 million grant to Pakistan to build capacity and to support federal institutions in water resources planning and management; hydropower planning; the upgrading of modeling and management systems and databases; and in conducting a sediment study for the Indus system.

Work will include studies on water resources regulation, policy, and planning; stakeholder benefit-sharing; action plans for asset development, ownership, and operation including potential interprovincial assets, public-private partnerships; institutional regimes for benefit sharing across administrative levels; lessons learned on resettlement; environmental and social assessments at basin level; climate change impacts on Indus hydrology, water availability and infrastructure development; studies on water use productivity and irrigation efficiency; and knowledge sharing on groundwater and conjunctive use. Training in system planning and management, mainly through the Water and Power Development Authority, will cover GIS and modeling efforts, including optimization models for the basin. What else can be done?

National agricultural water policy covers water law, rights, pricing, and allocation; user participation; subsidy policy; and asset and management transfer of infrastructure as in Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT). Recent reforms have emphasized economic valuation of water resources, though valuation has proved difficult. For national level improvements, we offer three broad recommendations:

- Assemble a panel of stakeholders to consider reforms in governance and regulation of water management, including water entitlements and administration from the interprovincial level to the user level.

- Generate awareness of the need to improve basin modeling and system design capacity to address flow variability, and invest in new infrastructure.

- Develop capacity for river basin management, basin modeling, and socioeconomic analysis of water basin planning by supporting graduate training, secondments, study tours, etc.

The regulatory framework for the water sector should address the relationship of groundwater entitlements to surface water rights and actual surface water deliveries by involving users in groundwater monitoring and voluntary self-regulation. Groundwater management is inextricably linked to formal and informal water allocation and rights regimes. Hence one must consider not only regulations and policy, but also informal entitlements given the fact of overlapping rights regimes. In addition, irrigation services are delivered mainly through large public enterprises operating with little oversight by or input from users. Ensuring accountability, transparency, and financial sustainability will require that new community and user associations enter the sector, as well as small and large private operators, using clear entitlements, benchmarking, and transparent rules for operation. Some decentralization has already taken place; Punjab and Sindh have undertaken reforms to decentralize irrigation management and improve user participation, including clear entitlements.

One type of new user association could be "multiple-use water organizations." Water agencies give irrigation priority but poor households use and re-use water from multiple sources for not only irrigation but also drinking, livestock, industrial applications, sanitation, and recreation. Urbanization requires reallocating water from agriculture to industry, energy, and urban consumption. Despite the evidence of integration of water uses at the local level, there are few "multiple-use water organizations."

Plenty of donors are intervening directly to remedy waterlogging and salinity, so USAID should do no more than monitor those issues. Our general recommendations for other local or provincial interventions are as follows:

- Help make irrigation services more competitive, accountable, and efficient by supporting continued development of (water users associations) WUAs below the distributary level and by supporting public-private partnerships at the canal command level.

- Investigate institutional approaches to groundwater management and develop a program for sustainable management

- Subsidize technological interventions, such as drip irrigation or microhydel investments, and complement with focused extension efforts and development of an integrated value chain and business development services.

Investing in irrigation reduces poverty by increasing food output, raising demand for agricultural labor, and generating higher incomes than rain-fed agriculture alone-especially when land ownership is less stratified. The effect of investment on poverty depends largely on how water availability affects demand for agricultural labor by increasing agricultural intensity and the area under cultivation. Further, high-value crops such as spices, cotton, and groundnut, produce more employment per drop of water than traditional crops. Women benefit directly through crop-based income and indirectly through irrigation-driven agricultural employment that reduces rural out-migration. One may quantify the indirect multiplier effects on women's contribution to economies at different scales through, for example, gender-disaggregated input-output or social accounting matrices, or CGE models.

To be successful, such initiatives must also support the development of local suppliers, taking into account the production and distribution of low-cost equipment, market outlets, individual farmers' technical knowledge and management capacity, and the organizational capacity of WUAs. Projects to increase horticultural production and the production of other nontraditional crops should also define target groups in a transparent way, and consider the sex-disaggregated labor impacts of increased production, processing, and marketing in local areas. Feasibility studies should estimate the number and proportion of farms in the command area that will be lifted above the poverty line through projects.

Irrigation managers have for some time considered spatial inequity in relation to physical structure, but inequitable access due to tenancy, gender, or other socioeconomic factors is less frequently considered. WUAs are helping to resolve water distribution issues for upstream and downstream users, but inequitable access due to social status is less easily overcome. In Punjab, a tenant's right to join a WUA depends on the tenancy. Permanent tenants long associated with a certain plot of land are often delegated a right to membership, though this remains the prerogative of the landlord and is thus vulnerable to manipulation.

Pakistan's small-scale and traditional irrigation systems range from spring-fed and shallow-well systems, to elaborate groundwater conveyance systems such as the karezes of Balochistan, as well as water harvesting systems and small-scale storage for kitchen gardens and the like.

Participatory approaches to drainage investments have also worked well and sorely need additional support in Pakistan.

By delivering water directly to plant roots, drip irrigation can double average yields. The PPAF has a community funding provision for drip irrigation kits in water-deficit areas, mainly for horticultural crops, and requires a community contribution of 20 percent to enhance local ownership. For centuries, communities in the hilly areas of Pakistan have built and managed small irrigation channels fed by mountain streams. Organizations such as the Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP) have scaled up these channels through microhydel schemes financed mainly by grants, with some community contribution; total costs per scheme average about US$$10,600 or $150 per household served. Microhydels are used for lighting for heating and cooking, agricultural processing, small business, and even community washing stations and low-wattage water heating for off-peak use. The power generated by the microhydels is compatible with irrigation since only the head and not the total water volume is reduced so the irrigation command area does not have to be reduced. AKRSP's simple, cost-effective approach can be replicated easily.

In sum, to improve small-scale irrigation specifically, USAID should consider supporting, promoting, or aiming for

- Irrigation management transfer reforms.

- The bundling of water, agricultural extension, and financial services.

- Pilot initiatives for private sector financing of small-scale irrigation.

- Multiple uses of irrigation water.

- Parallel development of water and small-scale energy, including micro hydels for electrification (including agricultural processing) and pump set operation in hilly areas.

- Improved equity and pro-poor outcomes for women and land-poor men.

- Mainstreaming groundwater management concerns in the IWRM, particularly in Balochistan, Sindh, and Punjab.

- Participatory design to focus on environmental issues, such as soil and water quality.

- Research on role of small towns in rural areas and implications for water management

VALUE CHAINS

Pakistan's key food crops are wheat, rice, maize, oilseeds, and sugar. Wheat, essential to food security especially in urban areas, has little value added until it is milled. Commercial growers and researchers have greatly different wheat yields and the incidence of leaf and stem rust is on the rise. Crops are not diversified and no research has been done on other related crops, such as triticale. Confusing policies hamper private sector crop development, yet Pakistan could well become a wheat exporter as most of its commercial crop is irrigated. Rice is significant in the Pakistani diet and Basmati and coarse rices are profitably exported. Pakistan's public agricultural research system has not yet produced hybrid rice varieties. Maize has good growth potential and a ready market in the feed milling industry. If, as reported, the main crop production area is being irrigated with "mined" non-replenishable water the government may need to encourage production where water does not have to be mined.

Pakistan consumes around 3.0 million MT of edible oil, 70 percent of which is imported, and demand is rising. The country could perhaps be more self-sufficient in edible oil. Domestic edible oil is mainly from cotton seed oil, and the rest from sunflower and canola. Soybean is able to supply edible oil and protein for feed mill rations, although this crop is in decline and as it is a non-hybrid, self pollinated crop this situation is not expected to be reversed until Pakistan passes plant breeders rights and has an effective rule of law. Meanwhile, the growing sugarcane subsector competes for land and water with wheat and oilseeds. Historically, costs of producing sugar in Pakistan have been much higher than the cost of importing it because of tariffs and a variable import quota; at today's prices the cost disadvantage is less.

Other important subsectors are horticulture and livestock. Horticulture is profitably exported, but little value is added and most products are exported 'fresh' and often are of very low or inconsistent quality. Unhealthy practices deter innovation and investment. For example, land owners sell mango crops prior to harvest to traders who then manage the produce from harvest and trade to domestic or export markets, resulting in a lack of transparency, and poor quality assurance across the supply chain. This implies that many land owners are not interested in growing activities, perhaps because many inherited land and don't appreciate its value. The livestock sector is not much advanced with the possible exception of the dairy industry. Value adding, genuine quality assurance, product traceability, brand recognition or other supply chain strengthening approaches are minimal.

Agricultural inputs include seed, fertilizer, and agricultural mechanization. Most hybrid seed in Pakistan is imported. Local seed is often of low quality yet Pakistan has no AEZ restrictions to be self sufficient and export seed. Public sector research is increasingly unable to deliver new varieties commercially acceptable to growers. Parastatal and government participation in the seed market complicates market signals as their poor quality seed is sold below real costs and without profit. Private sector actors are reluctant to research and develop new products as Pakistan does not protect breeders' rights. New products must follow a restrictive pre-release testing phase, while public sector plant quarantine and seed certifications are largely ineffective. Few entities participate in fertilizer and few products are suited to the range of AEZ and crops. This input area could benefit from private sector led commercial agronomy services promoting tailor made solutions. Participants include subsidiaries of multinationals who generally market higher quality products. National and family owned enterprises formulate off-patent and sometimes harmful products of varying quality. Regulatory measures are federal and provincial.

Agricultural mechanization-ranging from land preparation, growing, harvest and post harvest-is not advanced in Pakistan's commercial agriculture sector. For example, some maize is hand shelled or separated from cobs by laborers flailing with sticks. And disc ploughs still common in Pakistan have been shown to create hard pan; farmers should use other cultivation options or minimal tillage options.

Some well established private sector trade groups collect, transport, store, and assemble rural produce, and trade in and outside the country. They tend to be simple and focused on urban areas. Overall, the agriculture supply and value chains are weak-lacking innovation; diversification in cropping, production, and enterprise selection; trading sophistication; value addition at the cottage level; and new products, packing, and marketing.

The enabling environment for value chain development encompasses rural infrastructure, finance and credit, land marketability, asset valuation; and national sector coordination. The many weaknesses in the rural infrastructure-communications transport, postharvest processing, bulk handling or specialized product movement facilities-are compounded by an uncertain business environment. Commercial growers and agribusiness, for example, have few genuine or innovative opportunities for acquiring finance and insurance. Rural credit options exist, but growers must have a land title deed before banks will lend. A land title is a prerequisite for a bank account, and banks tend to lend only to those with an account. Other collateral options (e.g. livestock herd; crops in safe and accredited storage) are generally not recognized in formal operations. Informal loans are exploitative and expensive. Five private commercial banks dominate rural lending and there are a range of micro finance institutions, the top one being the National Rural Solidarity Program.

Since independence, Pakistan has not developed equity in land allocations, or a transparent and fully functioning land administration system. Land administration and accountability appears challenged; it is difficult and costly to access records, which turn out to be inherently unreliable. IT is not used in maintaining land registry records.

Though many federal ministries and agencies and provincial departments administer agriculture, land, water, and natural resources, there is no coordinated approach to linking strategic objectives and provincial implementation to assist farmers and agribusiness. Everyone seems to rely on the Planning Commission, which is not an implementing body. More work is needed to document which organizations are directly or indirectly involved in the sector to better appreciate the regulatory and operational framework to assist mobilizing sustainable supply and value chains.

Many agriculture value chains identified here will struggle to sustain themselves and adopt best practices in the absence of assistance. Such assistance should focus on policy reforms in specific commodities, on raising farm productivity and energizing commodity markets by improving credit and business development services, on targeting growth of small and medium-scale farming, and on involving women in positive roles.

SECTOR POLICY

Wheat accounts for about three quarters of grain production in Pakistan and is sown on over a third of all cropped land. Because of its symbolic and practical importance, it is a major exception to the government's commitment to market price regimes for food and food crops. For decades the government has used a system of "procurement price" and "issue price." The procurement price is usually less than the landed cost of imported wheat. Flour mills purchase wheat according to a quota based on milling capacity, and many likely sell their output at a higher margin than they are supposed to. This system can be characterized as an untargeted subsidy to flour consumers financed in large part by a tax on wheat producers. Drawbacks are numerous:

- Farmers have little incentive and ability to produce more.

- Handling and storage are inefficient, and post-harvest losses are large.

- Government is rarely able to procure targeted volumes at the pre-set procurement price.

- Flour mills overinvest in capacity.

- When provincial governments try to procure targeted quantities they create a "need" for bans or administrative restrictions on inter-district/interprovincial procurements that further discourage private investment in wheat marketing and storage.

- The system compels a ban on legal exports of wheat from Pakistan into Afghanistan while creating an incentive for clandestine trade.

Yet Pakistan is still a marginal importer/exporter of wheat. It is reasonable to suppose that a movement toward less government control of wheat marketing complemented by other productivity enhancing measures could make Pakistan a reliable supplier of wheat to Afghanistan and to some distances beyond.

If wheat and flour pricing policies are the most urgent problem facing Pakistan's food and agriculture system, water is the most important one. Without the Indus irrigation system agriculture in Pakistan would scarcely exist. Pakistan is headed for water scarcity, possibly by 2035, because of population growth. And there is nothing to be done about it; there is simply no additional water to be injected into the system. Moreover, 15 million tons of salt accumulate in the Indus Basin every year from evaporation; without sediment, the Indus delta is degrading rapidly. Groundwater, which now accounts for about half of all irrigation is overexploited and becoming salinized, yet tens of thousands of additional wells are being put into service every year. In the barani areas of Balochistan, farmers (using subsidized electricity) are pumping from depths of hundreds of meters and in the sweet water areas of the Indus Basin, depletion is now a fact in all canal commands. There is an urgent need to bring withdrawals into balance with recharge and since much groundwater recharge in the Indus Basin -about 80 percent-is from canals, this requires an integrated approach to surface and groundwater.

As if growing water demand colliding with static supply, salt accumulation, and degradation of the Indus delta were not enough bad news, climate change will pose even harsher challenges to Pakistan. The Indus basin depends heavily on the glaciers of the western Himalayas which act as a reservoir, capturing snow and rain, holding the water and releasing it into the rivers which feed the plain. It is now clear that climate change is already affecting the western glaciers far more seriously than in the damper Eastern Himalayas. While the science is still in its infancy, best estimates are that there will be 50 years of glacial retreat, during which time river flows will increase. But then the glacial reservoirs will be empty, and there are likely to be dramatic decreases in river flows conceivably by a terrifying 30 percent to 40 percent in 100 years time.

Even in the shorter term much of the water infrastructure is in poor repa

Related Content

Pakistan: progress report #1 - king salman humanitarian aid and relief centre (ksrelief), giews country brief: the islamic republic of pakistan 23-september-2024, district jafferabad, naseerabad and usta muhammad, balochistan: rapid need assessment (29 august 2024), pakistan: monsoon impact overview (as of 11 september 2024).

Putting Pakistan’s Food System on the Path to Greater Sustainability and Resilience

Namash nazar, fida muhammad, willem janssen.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic was particularly severe on daily wage earners and others with no employment protection. The lockdowns imposed and disruption in economic activities increased food insecurity. An estimated 50% of the population ate less or switched to lower quality food. Some 40% of the population faced moderate to severe food insecurity during April to July 2020. 

The agriculture sector was also affected by lockdowns and disruptions in markets. Higher imports helped ensure consumers had ready access to key staples. For example, wheat imports reached 3.6 million tons in 2020 – a level not seen for several decades. However, markets for nutritious and perishable products such as meat, milk, fruits and vegetables proved more fragile with both producers and consumers facing difficulties.

The food system in Pakistan was able to meet the bulk of food needs during the pandemic. However, as COVID-19 retreats, conditions have not returned to normal as expected.

Shaukat Mukhtar, General Secretary of the Dairy Farmers’ Association confirms that the pandemic hit milk producers very hard, as demand dropped, transport was disrupted, and input costs increased. "Milk prices remained capped, and we got limited support from Government. Many small to medium commercial producers closed and sold off their animals, while owners of one or two animals, who sell surplus milk to meet their family cash needs could no longer do so and had to cut down expenses. The dairy herd has been cut down and will take time to rebuild,” he adds. 

The crisis also accelerated several ongoing trends in the food system. Increasing numbers of wholesalers and retailers provided home delivery services; and several major supermarkets expanded their direct sourcing from farmers and local aggregators. The trend towards mechanization of farm operations also accelerated with an increased demand for machinery services and for skilled labor.

Continuing turbulence in international markets has sent food and fertilizer prices spiraling, which has highlighted the need to further transform food systems.

Post pandemic recovery 

The situation improved significantly as the economy revived after general lockdowns ended on May 9 and were replaced with “Smart Lockdowns” that were much more selective and targeted. A major contributing factor in the revival was the launching of several Government assistance programs.

To support the agriculture sector Government set aside PKR 1.2 trillion for subsidies, and reduced interest rates and repayments on agricultural loans. These programs helped cushion the impact on the food and agriculture sector, but they are not reaching all farmers, especially small holders. They are also unlikely to jumpstart longer-term productivity growth as it does not address the underlying constraints in the sector such as lack of technology and support for diversification into high value products, fragmented supply chains and inefficient markets.

Building a more productive and resilient food system for all Pakistanis 

The events of the past two years have demonstrated that the food system in Pakistan is able to meet the bulk of food needs during a crisis of unprecedented proportions such as that created by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as COVID-19 retreats, conditions have not returned to normal as expected. Instead, there is continuing turbulence in international markets aggravated by the situation in Ukraine which sent food and fertilizer prices spiraling. This has highlighted the need to further transform food systems.

There is, however, heightened investor interest in agriculture. Food entrepreneurs like Sanakhawan Hussain, who moved to Hyderabad during the pandemic to manage his family banana plantation are optimistic about the future of Pakistan’s food system.

“There are many opportunities and Pakistan will see substantial transformations in the food system in the coming ten years. Government needs to make sure that it creates a favorable policy environment; works with us in the private sector to develop new technologies; and help the food system deal with shocks including climate change.”

To bring about a more resilient food system, action will be needed in the following areas:

First, Pakistan needs to address food insecurity in both rural and urban areas via multi-sectoral interventions that improve production, processing, transport, storage, and marketing.  It also needs to make markets more accessible to both producers and consumers. It’s important to prioritize work on legislation, guidelines and regulations for enhanced quality control, better payments systems, and consumer protection regulations.

Secondly, Pakistan needs to empower the agriculture and livestock producers with increased use of technology to ensure broader adaption of climate-smart agriculture.  Improved focus and efficiency in government expenditures are also essential to adjust the food system to higher food and energy prices.

Thirdly, the COVID pandemic highlighted the risk and impact of disease transmissions from animals to humans. Pakistan has a large stock of livestock with a substantial viral and bacterial load. This makes it particularly important for the government to take concrete steps such as enhancing vaccination campaigns against common livestock diseases, formulating improved regulations for the establishment and operations of livestock colonies, and developing institutional capacities and protocols for surveillance, monitoring, and reporting system in both rural and urban areas. The “One Health” approach launched by Government provides an excellent opportunity to take a more holistic and integrated approach to human, animal, and plant health.

Finally, Pakistan needs to encourage greater use of digital technologies in both rural and urban areas to make the food system more responsive, resilient and, efficient.  Collaboration across government actors, private sector, civil society, and charitable organizations, is necessary for improving identification of vulnerable households, targeting beneficiaries of social safety nets, and monitoring effectiveness of different food security support instruments.

A more detailed policy note on building a more resilient agriculture system in Pakistan is available here .

Food insecurity among the world’s most vulnerable people is rising due to the ongoing global food crisis . As part of its response to the crisis, the Bank is supporting countries in improving agricultural productivity and building more resilient, sustainable food systems, including in Pakistan.

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Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan

• Research Article
• Published: 21 August 2021
• Volume 29 , pages 5406–5414, ( 2022 )

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• Shujaat Abbas   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2141-7510 1 , 2  

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Climatic changes are posing serious threats to crop production and food insecurity across the globe. This study explores the dynamic relationship between changing annual temperature and production of major crops such as wheat, rice, bajra, jowar, maize, barley, gram, sugar cane, mastered oil, and cotton in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019 through an eclectic production model. The estimated result of panel econometric analysis revealed a significant negative effect of rising temperature on selected crop production in the long run with an insignificant impact in the short run. Among other explanatory variables, the area under cultivation and fertilizer input have significant positive effects in both the long run and the short run. Improved quality seeds revealed insignificant effects and urging authorities to enhance quality research to develop climate change resilient crops. This study urges Pakistan to improve agriculture technology along with adopting other greenhouse gas mitigation, such as forestation and clean energy, and water conservation policies.

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The data of this study is taken from open sources of data, which can be provided on request.

Average annual temperature data is not used as logarithm for two reasons. First, it remains the same for all cross-sections. Second, values are taken in terms of annual change in temperature.

Abbreviations

Fully modified ordinary least square

Dynamic ordinary least square

Carbon dioxide

Greenhouse gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Pooled mean group

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Gross domestic product

Autoregressive distributed lag model

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Abbas, S. Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29 , 5406–5414 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16041-4

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Pakistan’s Flood Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis

International aid is pouring in, but the local food insecurity would have global consequences..

• Climate Change
• Michael Kugelman

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Pakistan’s ongoing flood crisis could intensify food insecurity, Bangladesh’s prime minister meets her Indian counterpart in New Delhi, and some girls’ schools reopen in Afghanistan.

If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here .

Food Crisis Looms in Pakistan

Pakistan continues to suffer from catastrophic flooding. Around one-third of the country remains underwater, and most of the 33 million people affected by the disaster have yet to receive assistance. But the crisis could still get worse: On Tuesday, the retaining wall of Pakistan’s largest lake gave way under rising water levels, imperiling communities downstream. More monsoon rains are expected in the coming weeks.

International aid is pouring into Pakistan, and a newly established humanitarian air corridor has facilitated the arrival of emergency relief. More than a dozen countries have pledged assistance. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres—who has described the floods as a “monsoon on steroids”—will visit Pakistan on Friday to survey the damage. The immediate focus is on providing food, clean water, and shelter. Pakistani officials and international donors are also working to address public health challenges.

However, another disaster with direct global implications looms: a major food crisis. With crops, livestock, and agricultural land damaged or destroyed, Pakistan will struggle to feed itself and the countries that depend on its food exports. This risks exacerbating the global food market crunch triggered by coronavirus pandemic supply chain shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to preliminary estimates , 65 percent of Pakistan’s main food crops—including 70 percent of its rice—have been swept away during the floods, and 3 million livestock have died. Pakistan’s planning minister says 45 percent of agricultural land is now destroyed. Such territory is precious in the best of times: Of Pakistan’s total land area, less than 40 percent is arable, and land erosion inflicts heavy damage on agricultural land.

Wheat is Pakistan’s top food crop, and the annual planting season begins soon. More than 90 percent of Pakistani households are wheat consumers. But with so much land destroyed or damaged, the wheat harvest could be jeopardized; some farmers fear their land won’t be usable within the next three months. Pakistan will likely have to import more food, which could raise costs and worsen the country’s balance of payments crisis. Before the floods, food inflation was at 26 percent , and in recent days some costs have surged by as much as 500 percent.

These high costs will be felt heavily in cities, which are home to large poor and working-class populations. If history is any guide, it could lead to urban unrest . It will manifest differently in rural areas, which are home to around two-thirds of Pakistan’s population. Rural land ownership is wildly unequal, and most residents own little or no land, which compounds food insecurity. In the longer term, this could exacerbate a public health challenge: stunting in children attributed to poor nutrition.

A food crisis in Pakistan would have international implications. The country is the fourth-largest global rice exporter , with buyers from China to sub-Saharan Africa. Any dramatic drop in exports will only add to global food insecurity fueled by reduced wheat exports from Ukraine, although high global rice stocks could soften the blow. Pakistan also exports many non-food crops, especially cotton.

If the flood waters recede soon enough, Pakistan can still avoid a worst-case scenario, salvaging some agricultural land. Most of Pakistan’s wheat and rice crops grow in Punjab province, which wasn’t hit as hard by the floods. But given the sheer scale of the flooding, the most significant damage is already done. The international donor community is already grappling with acute crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine, and donor fatigue remains a concern for Pakistan. The global implications of the flood crisis underscore the importance of global support to preempt another disaster.

FP LIVE:   Sign up to watch a live 30-minute discussion with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday, Sept. 15, at 9 a.m. EDT about the war in Ukraine and how NATO member states can exert pressure on Russia.

What We’re Following

Bangladesh’s prime minister visits New Delhi. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited New Delhi this week and met with her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi. The visit produced seven new agreements in such areas as railways and nuclear energy. In their public remarks, the two leaders emphasized the importance of trade and connectivity, and Modi said the countries will soon begin talks on a new comprehensive economic partnership.

India and Bangladesh have a cordial relationship. India backed the fighters who eventually created the new state of Bangladesh in 1971, and strong ties have endured since. However, Dhaka has taken issue with some of the Modi government’s Hindu nationalist policies, including a new immigration law that provides fast-track citizenship options for religious minorities who immigrate from neighboring states but excludes Muslims.

When Modi visited Dhaka last year to mark Bangladesh’s 50th independence anniversary, Islamist hard-liners staged violent protests . The ongoing failure to conclude a long-drafted water-sharing accord governing the Teesta River—largely because of resistance from India’s West Bengal state government—has also caused tension. Nonetheless, Modi wants to strengthen ties with Bangladesh as part of his government’s Neighborhood First policy and to secure connectivity arrangements with neighbors besides Pakistan.

Islamic State-Khorasan attacks Russian Embassy . The Islamic State-Khorasan, which operates in Afghanistan, has claimed responsibility an attack outside the Russian Embassy in Kabul on Monday. A suicide bomber detonated explosives near the entrance, killing six people, including two embassy staffers. It is the first known attack on any foreign diplomatic facility in Afghanistan since the Taliban took over last year.

The attack is an embarrassment for the Taliban, whose leaders have boasted about restoring security since seizing power. For the small number of countries with a diplomatic presence in Taliban-led Afghanistan—including China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and most recently India—the assault may prompt concerns about the safety of their personnel. Russia hasn’t recognized the Taliban regime, but it may be inclined to formalize relations with the Taliban if it gets assurances about security concerns. The attack on Moscow’s embassy will only deepen those concerns.

India’s new aircraft carrier. India recently unveiled the INS Vikrant , its first domestically produced aircraft carrier, which is significant for three reasons. First, it showcases India’s naval power when it has struggled to keep up with China’s naval modernization. Second, it pushes back against criticism from Washington that New Delhi’s indigenous defense production system is inefficient. Finally, the INS Vikrant demonstrates the strategic importance of India’s more robust sea power as Beijing expands its own naval presence in its backyard.

Despite being produced in India, the new aircraft carrier does contain components imported from key defense partners , including France, Israel, Russia, and the United States.

Under the Radar

Officials in Paktia province in eastern Afghanistan revealed this week that girls’ high schools have reopened in recent days. Older girls’ schools have been shuttered since the Taliban takeover, and the group broke its promise to reopen the schools in March.

Curiously, a spokesperson for the province’s education department said that the department wasn’t informed of the reopenings in advance and that a letter had been sent to the national education minister seeking more information.

Officials in Kabul have professed ignorance as well. A top Taliban spokesperson, Zabiullah Mujahid, said on Tuesday he didn’t know why the schools reopened or who authorized the change. One possible explanation is that the Haqqani network, a brutal faction of the Taliban, is behind the move. Paktia is a historical stronghold group, whose leaders reportedly support reopening all girls’ schools.

One Haqqani network leader, Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, could have pushed the province to reopen the schools in defiance of Taliban leadership. If so, the move could deepen the fissures that have emerged within the Taliban in recent months.

This Week’s Most Read

• How U.S. Grand Strategy Is Changed by Ukraine By FP Contributors

• Why Trumpism Will Endure by Michael Hirsh

• International Relations Theory Suggests Great-Power War Is Coming By Matthew Kroenig

Regional Voices

Journalist Aadil Brar writes in the Print about the Indian public’s heightened interest in China amid intensifying strategic competition. “Finding clues for developments in satellite imagery while shifting through social media to look for what the Chinese state media has said on the border dispute has become a full-time activity for many,” he writes.

A Daily Mirror editorial discusses a recent major victory by the Sri Lankan national cricket team, which defeated a heavily favored Indian squad—and how it momentarily distracted the country’s public from its many travails. “Rabble rousing anger and hatred against ruling elites … gave way to exuberant and loud cheers which filled the air,” it says.

In the Kathmandu Post , commentator Deepak Thapa laments the excesses of VIP culture in Nepal and the inconveniences it imposes on the general public: “To even conceive of the heads of our state adopting the ways of the bicycling monarchies of Scandinavia and the Netherlands would not only be idealistic but naïve as well.”

Michael Kugelman is the writer of Foreign Policy ’s weekly South Asia Brief. He is the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. X:  @michaelkugelman

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Why Pakistan Is Facing a Growing Food Crisis

L ast Saturday in Mirpur Khas, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hundreds of people lined up for hours outside a park to buy subsidized wheat flour, offered for 65 rupees a kilogram instead of the current, inflated rate of about 140 to 160 rupees.

When a few trucks arrived, the crowd surged forward, leaving several injured. One man, Harsingh Kolhi, who was there to bring a five kg bag of flour home for his wife and children, was crushed and killed in the chaos.

As the dust settled, a group of people at the site took Kolhi’s body to the local press club and demanded the registration of a murder case against officials responsible for the stampede as well as the flour crisis across the province, according to Dawn.

The incident is just one example of how the impact of the country’s burgeoning food shortage and a looming economic crisis are already being felt by Pakistan’s poorest.

As the country still reels from the devastating floods that hit over the summer, which government officials estimate damaged more than 80% of the country’s crops , it’s also contending with economic uncertainty that has left food and medicine lingering in ports. The State Bank of Pakistan says that their foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a critical level of $4.3 billion— barely enough for three weeks of imports.

Pakistan’s economic crisis is twofold, says Uzair Younus, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Pakistan Initiative. Even before last year’s floods, food inflation was already high, especially in rural areas, and many struggled to keep up with the rise in prices.

“Over the last four years, blue collar workers in Pakistan have lost around 30% of their purchasing power,” says Younus. “These are lower-middle-class and lower-class citizens that basically earn $2 a day.”

Before former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party came to power in 2018, the government borrowed heavily in dollars to fund growth, keeping an overvalued exchange rate. By 2018, the policy of using an overvalued exchange rate could not continue because the country’s foreign exchange reserves were sharply down. Khan’s party was forced to turn to the IMF in 2019 for a $6 billion economic bailout.

The IMF program was suspended in March 2020 due to the arrival of COVID-19, and has undergone many starts and stops since then, as Younus says the government failed to meet some of the IMF’s demands.

In an effort to stretch dollars, imports are being held at the ports, impacting everything from food to medicine. “Containers of onions are stuck at port because the payments are not being cleared by the bank, so onion prices are now soaring,” says Younus. “In a country of 230 million on the verge of default, shortages are bound to pop up across the supply chain, especially for imported food and medicine.”

In December, Pakistan’s Poultry Association protested a two-and-a-half-month pending shipment of soybeans, a staple in the diet of chickens, which they said was leading to an increase of 162 rupees in the price of poultry—a 45% price hike. The country’s Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination issued a warning that the country could soon face a shortage of life-saving drugs in the new future, as local banks are refraining from opening letters of credit for the import of medicines’ raw material.

During the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan, a pledging conference hosted by the Pakistani government and the United Nations in Geneva earlier this week, the international community—including France, the EU, and China—pledged over $10 billion in loans to help Pakistan recover from flood damages.

The one-day conference was held to present a plan for a climate-resilient recovery, and raise continued assistance from the public and private sectors, shaping up to be a test case for having large emitters pay loss and damages for smaller emitters bearing the brunt of climate change. For now, Younus notes that they’re just pledges; it might be months until the funds materialize, and they’re likely to be allocated towards specific reconstruction plans.

When a deal might be reached “is anyone’s guess,” according to Younus. Pakistan has been in a deadlock with the IMF over $1.1 billion in funding since last September. The country’s army chief, General Syed Asim Munir, recently visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the hopes of securing additional loans from them.

The funds were dependent on various conditions—such as raising energy prices and taxes—which the Pakistani government has yet to meet. On his way out the door last April following a vote of no confidence, former Prime Minister Khan subsidized energy prices, just as the war in Ukraine was causing sharp increases in energy prices worldwide. “He was basically laying a minefield for the incoming government.”

With elections on the horizon this August (or possibly earlier, as Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party is pushing to dissolve provincial assemblies in a bid for earlier elections), the government is unwilling to make any moves that might put them out of favor with voters. “A political party that is in power would not want to impose upward adjustments of prices and more inflation in the run up to an election.” says Younus. “Why inflict more pain on your citizens?”

In the meantime, Younus says, routines and decisions once considered mundane have become a lot more difficult. “You hear stories from doctors beginning to see adult malnutrition in adults who have given up two meals a day. You hear from teachers in schools saying that parents come and say ‘I have four children, can you tell me which one to keep in school? I cannot afford to pay the school fees for the other three.’”

“People cannot make ends meet,” Younus says. “Life is unbearable.”

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Pakistan at a Glance

‘Very Dire’: Devastated by Floods, Pakistan Faces Looming Food Crisis

The flooding has crippled Pakistan’s agricultural sector, battering the country as it reels from an economic crisis and double-digit inflation that has sent the price of basics soaring.

Navigating floodwaters in the Dadu district of Sindh Province, of Pakistan, on Thursday. Credit... Fareed Khan/Associated Press

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By Christina Goldbaum and Zia ur-Rehman

• Published Sept. 11, 2022 Updated Sept. 14, 2022

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Violent swells have swept away roads, homes, schools and hospitals across much of Pakistan. Millions of people have been driven from their homes, struggling through waist-deep, fetid water to reach islands of safety. Nearly all of the country’s crops along with thousands of livestock and stores of wheat and fertilizer have been damaged — prompting warnings of a looming food crisis.

Since a deluge of monsoon rains lashed Pakistan last week, piling more water on top of more than two months of record flooding that has killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of millions, the Pakistani government and international relief organizations have scrambled to save people and vital infrastructure in what officials have called a climate disaster of epic proportions .

Areas that flooded in July and August

AFGHANISTAN

Floodwater now covers around a third of the country, including its agricultural belt, with more rain predicted in the coming weeks. The damage from the flood will likely be “far greater” than initial estimates of around $10 billion, according to the country’s planning minister, Ahsan Iqbal.

The flooding has crippled a country that was already reeling from an economic crisis and double digit-inflation that has sent the price of basic goods soaring. Now the flooding threatens to set Pakistan back years or even decades, officials warned, and to fan the flames of political tensions that have engulfed the country since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted last spring.

The damage to the country’s agricultural sector could also be felt across the globe, experts warn. Pakistan is one of the world’s top producers and exporters of cotton and rice — crops that have been devastated by the flood. As much as half of the country’s cotton crop has been destroyed, officials said, a blow to global cotton production in a year when cotton prices have soared as other major producers from the United States to China have been hit with extreme weather.

Not flooded

Balochistan

Mirpur Khas

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Food crisis in pakistan: real or artificial.

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The increasing cost of basic food commodities is the single most severe threat to standard of living in developing countries. In a country such as Pakistan where 50-80% of their income is spent on food, this presents a daunting challenge to livelihoods and contributes to the huge economic inflation currently experienced in Pakistan. The price of wheat flour, which is the country’s staple food continues to skyrocket amidst government and international efforts to stabilise commodity prices. What is the root cause of these commodity price hikes within the context of the global food crises and what are its impacts on Pakistan’s masses? Based on analysis of secodary data from various government Ministries in Pakistan, a thorough press/media review and an in-depth literature review, this report employs a diagnostic approach to answer some of these questions by providing an in-depth analysis of the food crisis in Pakistan, its effects and suggestions of possible solutions.

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Floods are tipping Pakistan into a food crisis

Farmland bigger than the Czech Republic is flooded. Fresh crops are delayed, supply chains disrupted. Now hunger looms.

The catastrophic floods in Pakistan have pushed the country to the brink. These floods follow the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and the most severe heatwave the country has faced in more than 60 years.

When he visited in September, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said he had “ never seen climate carnage on such scale ”.

But the awful reality is that this is just the beginning. Another big crisis birthed by the floods faces Pakistan — that of food insecurity.

Pakistan already has some of the  highest levels of malnutrition in the world. With the entire supply chain damaged in recent weeks, the country is likely to witness increased vulnerability to malnutrition, especially among women, young people and children.

Ensuring access

Across 81 districts, a total of 78,000 sq km (30,000 sq miles) of farmland were flooded. That’s an area bigger than the entire Czech Republic. More than 80 percent of crops across the country were damaged , according to the government. The Sindh province, which produces a considerable share of the country’s food, is one of the worst affected.

Thousands of hectares of standing food crops like rice, onions, tomatoes and other vegetables have been destroyed. More than 6,000km (3,728 miles) of roads and bridges have been damaged, causing significant disruptions to the transport of the food that has survived.

An assessment done in September by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and its partners found that more than 70 percent  of individuals interviewed in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region reported difficulty accessing any food, let alone nutritious food.

Keeping food affordable

The United Nations estimates the economic loss due to the floods stands at an enormous $40bn. This in a country reeling from steep inflation, which was already running at a 14-year high of almost 25 percent in July before the floods hit. It’s worse now: Food prices in the affected regions increased three to five times in just a few weeks.

The import of vegetables from neighbouring countries, particularly Afghanistan and Iran, will certainly help. However, the government will have to strictly regulate prices along the supply chain, so food remains affordable for everyone, especially the most vulnerable.

It isn’t just causing problems in Pakistan, which is the world’s eighth-largest producer of wheat. With one-third of the country under water, delays in sowing wheat — which normally happens in November and December — seem inevitable. Draining the flood waters and rejuvenating the soil is going to take several months.

In July, Pakistan agreed to sell 120,000 metric tonnes of wheat towards the World Food Programme’s aid efforts in Afghanistan. Pakistan is also a key transit route to send food into Afghanistan. But the floods have made it much harder to transport aid to Pakistan’s landlocked neighbour, the UN warned in September. Afghanistan is already facing unprecedented levels of hunger and food shortages.

Rebuilding must start now

At least 33 million people have been directly affected by the floods in both rural and urban areas.

In rural regions, the government’s efforts need to focus on draining floodwaters from agricultural lands for the sowing of winter crops. This will save the country from sinking into a prolonged food security crisis.

In urban areas, the government must keep a check on further price rises caused by the cost of imports and supply chain disruptions.

Many informal markets, where people sell food items on pushcarts, or small shops made out of mud structures in low-income areas, have been completely destroyed — along with the livelihoods of those who worked there. The government needs to rehabilitate these markets, creating better infrastructure to make them more resilient to future disasters.

Rapid government action on all of this is critical — and it must start now. It’s possible to envisage riots and other forms of law-and-order situations caused by the enormous pressure on food systems.

We, at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), have been working in Pakistan since 2007. We are in the middle of an assessment that will guide our own interventions aimed at rehabilitating some food marketplaces in the worst affected areas.

Future uncertain

Of course, these devastating floods are only the latest evidence of the ways Pakistan and many other countries in the Global South are bearing the brunt of the Global North’s disproportionate abuse of the climate for centuries.

Leading donors must step forward and respond to the joint appeal of the UN and the Pakistani government for $816m — a steep increase from the initial $160m they had requested — needed for immediate relief.

But even once the current crisis passes, the outlook is grim for my country. In the World Bank’s 2021  Climate Risk Country Profile , projections for Pakistan over the next 10 years suggest “yield declines in many key food and cash crops, including cotton, wheat, sugarcane, maize and rice”.

What’s so desperately sad is that women and children in countries like mine are the ones who will suffer the most and end up with the least food on their plates.

As the government of Pakistan and development agencies try to restore the supply chain and rebuild food markets, they must also focus on social safety nets for these segments of the population. The government must also strengthen existing social protection programmes to address the nutrition needs of people with low incomes.

The international community should also help secure the future by committing to a significant increase in its support to help communities adapt to increasingly extreme climates.

The government must ensure the funds it receives are used properly, both to address the immediate challenges spawned by the floods and to rebuild intelligently for when we are inevitably hit by the next large climate event.

Pakistan is at a crossroads. It does not have to drown or go hungry.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Pakistan Floods Raise Fears of Hunger After Crops Wrecked

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Nearly 15 percent of its rice crop and 40 percent of its cotton crop were lost due to the floods.

Villager women empty their cotton-filled shawls on a pile after collecting it from cotton crops, which were damaged by floodwaters due to heavy monsoon rains, in Tando Jam near Hyderabad, a district of southern Sindh province, Pakistan, Saturday, September 17, 2022.

Like every year, Arz Mohammed had planted his little patch of land in southern Pakistan with cotton. The crop would earn him enough so that, as he puts it, his family of five wouldn’t be reduced to begging. Then came the deluge.

Pakistan’s massive floods this summer collapsed Mohammed’s home and destroyed his four acres of cotton, wiping out most of his income.

On top of that, his land and that of his neighbors remain underwater, three months after the heaviest rains stopped. Like many farmers across southern Pakistan, he may not be able to plant his next crop — wheat — in time.

That could spell trouble for the country’s food supply.

“These rains have destroyed everything for us,” said Mohammed, who lives in a tent with his wife and children near his wrecked house in Khairpur, one of the country’s hardest-hit districts. “We don’t even have anything to eat.”

This summer’s flooding, caused by monsoon rains nearly triple the usual ferocity, wiped out huge swaths of crops, leaving already impoverished families struggling to obtain food. Farmers and officials warn that Pakistan could now face serious food shortages at a time when the government is strapped for cash and world food prices are high.

Nearly 15 percent of Pakistan’s rice crop and 40 percent of its cotton crop were lost, according to officials. The waters also wiped out the personal grain stores that many farming families rely on for food yearlong.

The flooding, blamed in part on climate change, killed nearly 1,600 people, damaged nearly 2 million homes and overall wreaked damage estimated at more than $30 billion.

At the United Nations last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told The Associated Press that crops on 4 million acres were washed away. “We need funds to provide a livelihood to our people. We need funds to compensate for the loss of crops to our people, to our farmers.”

The government says there is no immediate worry about food supplies. In a statement to the AP, the state disaster agency said wheat stock is enough to last through the next harvest and that the government is importing more.

However, the upcoming wheat crop has been thrown into uncertainty. Planting usually starts in October. In Punjab province, the country’s main wheat producer, fields suffered less damage and can be sown in time. But in southern Sindh province, the second largest producer, some 50 percent of the fields remain underwater, according to Jam Khan Shoro, a provincial irrigation minister in Sindh.

Aerial footage in Sindh shows field after field still inundated. The province, in Pakistan’s southern lowlands at the downstream end of its major rivers, is where the floods hit hardest: 80 percent of the rice crop and 70 percent of cotton were destroyed, devastating the livelihoods of the small farmers who make up most the production.

Altaf Hussain Marri, a larger and relatively well-off landholder in Khairpur, said he normally gives away wheat as a gift to friends and family. Now he’s worried about having enough for himself and his children, unsure if his 400 inundated acres will drain in time. The floods demolished his cotton and rice crops, worth around $40,000.

“If we fail to grow wheat … next year we might not have even wheat to eat,” Marri said. “It will create food insecurity in the country. The poor will suffer a lot. There will be no flour.”

Pakistan’s agricultural sector had been growing in recent years, allowing the country to export some wheat and rice.

“Now we will have to import wheat and other food items,” Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal told the AP.

Sharif, the prime minister, said Pakistan may have to import about a million metric tons of wheat, and it could come from Russia, but Pakistan is open to other offers if the price is right.

Pakistan has already put out orders to import 500,000 metric tons of wheat, Planning Ministry officials say. There are contingency plans to buy as much as 2.5 million tons over the next year, but officials are waiting to see how much wheat is planted, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the policy was not yet set.

Ashfaq Ahmad, a senior economist, said the additional wheat needs to be brought in quickly, by next month.

Otherwise, “I am seeing a food crisis in December,” he told the AP. “Any delay in the import of wheat will cause a food shortage.”

The flooding was also a blow to Pakistan’s important cash crops. Losses will mean lower exports of rice, which earned $2 billion in 2020. Cotton losses could hurt the country’s biggest export, textiles and clothes, which brought in more than $20 billion annually in recent years.

But the greater damage and danger are likely to Pakistan’s poor, with no margin to endure losses in income and food.

In Dasht, a remote district of Baluchistan province, hundreds of orchard owners worry about their future after losing crops of grapes, apples and other fruits. In parts of Baluchistan, piles upon piles of rotten apples can be seen in submerged areas.

Even before the floods, some 38 million Pakistanis, more than 16 percent of the population, were living in moderate or severe food insecurity, meaning they were uncertain about being able to obtain food or at times have outright gone without eating, according to the World Health Organization. Nearly 18 percent of children were acutely malnourished.

The blow to the food supply and incomes will tip those populations deeper into hunger, U.N. agencies have warned. The U.N.’s World Food Program has so far delivered food to 600,000 flood survivors.

Iqbal, the planning minister, said Sindh province is the country’s biggest producer of vegetables for domestic markets. Those crops were lost, along with families’ personal stores of grains for themselves and feed for their livestock.

“So, therefore we have a real food security challenge at hand,” he said.

On the ground in Sukkur, another hard-hit district neighboring Khairpur, the local agricultural director Rasool Bux Junejo fears the worst. Farmers won’t be able to grow wheat or other key crops like sunflowers and mustard.

“That will be a huge loss in the coming months. If you ask me as an agriculture worker, I foresee famine, God forbid,” he said. “We will be unable to provide food to our people.”

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