an essay on the report of the pestilence

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Plague and poetry: How Middle East authors have written about disease

Plague, pandemic and pestilence have long been themes for writers, historians and poets, from Giovanni Boccaccio’s medieval The Decameron  and Daniel Defoe’s  A Journal of the Plague Year to, more recently,  Blindness by Nobel Prize winner Jose Saramago.

Nowhere is this more true than the Middle East and North Africa, which has a centuries-old tradition of writing about illness and medicine.

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One of the most famous works is The Plague, by French-Algerian writer Albert Camus. Published in 1947, it is set in the Algerian city of Oran and based on the cholera epidemic which engulfed the city in 1849 (Camus chose to set his novel in the modern age). Many have also interpreted the story as about resistance to the Nazi occupation during World War Two. 

That same year, Nazik al-Malaika broke poetry convention with her account of cholera in Cairo; one thousand years earlier, Ibn al-Wardi railed against the plague through an ode, only to succumb himself to the disease two days later.

But epidemic-related work from the region is not just fictional,  going beyond the artistic and impressionist to also include hygiene guidance, travel books and hadiths (sayings, actions or silent approval attributed to the Prophet Muhammad and used as guidance for everyday life).

Works by the ninth-century writer Ibn Abi al-Dunya, as well as later works by Ibn Hajar al-Asqalani gave guidance on how to combat disease - much as we, in the 21st century, look to the World Health Organisation and other expert bodies for guidance.

1947: Cholera in Egypt

Cholera , by the Iraqi poet Nazik al-Malaika (1923-2007), depicts the death, grief and agony that shattered Egypt during the last months of 1947.

The outbreak, which hit the country hard, is considered one of the largest incidents of the disease in Egypt during the 20th century, killing around 10,276 people out of a 20,805 recorded cases. During this period Egypt was cut off from the rest of the world, amid restrictions on travel, and the forceful isolation of patients and communities.

Although the origin of the infection was never proven, many Egyptians believed it was bought in by English soldiers returning from India (Egypt, which was a British colony earlier in the century, was still heavily garrisoned with UK troops during the late 1940s).

Al-Malaika conjures up vivid images of carriages carrying dead bodies and the silence that befell Egyptian streets; she also uses colloquial phrases for the illness such as “al-Shota” and “al-Heyda”, which translate as "swift" and "quick".

Her style was hailed by critics at the time as ground-breaking in its use of free verse rather than the traditional Arabic ode, a form which is now almost 1,500 years old. As such,  Cholera heralded a new chapter in Arabic poetry and inspired a new wave of Arab poets - called the Pioneer Generation - to experiment with different forms. During the 1990s, al-Malaika moved to Cairo, where she spent her last years.

It is dawn. Listen to the footsteps of the passerby, in the silence of the dawn. Listen, look at the mourning processions, ten, twenty, no… countless. … Everywhere lies a corpse, mourned without a eulogy or a moment of silence. … Humanity protests against the crimes of death. … Cholera is the vengeance of death. … Even the gravedigger has succumbed, the muezzin is dead, and who will eulogize the dead? … O Egypt, my heart is torn by the ravages of death.

 Translated by Husain Haddawy, with Nathalie Handal in P oetry of Arab Women: A Contemporary Anthology

1784: Plague in North Africa 

The popular depiction of pandemics has focused on outbreaks such as the medieval Black Death or the influenza outbreak 0f 1917-1920, which is wrongly labelled “Spanish Flu” . But epidemics can also be localised.

The volumes Ten Years' Residence at the Court of Tripoli were penned by a “Miss Tully”, the sister-in-law of Richard Tully, the British consul in Tripoli, from 1784 onwards.

The port city, in modern-day Libya, was hit by the plague in 1785. Tully writes of how burning straw was used in homes as fumigation - along with what we would now recognise as social distancing:

“A friend is admitted only into a matted apartment, where he retires to the farther end of the room to a straw seat. No business is now transacted but with a blaze of straw kept burning between the person admitted into the house and the one he is speaking to.”

But the situation was just as severe in what is modern-day Tunisia. On 29 April 1785, Tully wrote:

The last few weeks several couriers have crossed the deserts from Tunis to this city, disseminating the plague in their way; and consequently the country round us is everywhere infected.

The plague reached the Tunisian city of Sfax in 1784 and was to kill an estimated 15,000 people, this in a port city of 30,000, double that of Tripoli. 

Sfax had previously been hit by plague in 1622 and again in 1688, but the outbreak almost a century later was even more lethal, wiping out many of the ruling classes, including officials, politicians, the legal profession - and poets.

It began when sea merchants arrived after escaping the plague in Alexandria to the east. They were refused entry to Sfax but some sailors managed to breach the order. 

Later, war was to follow plague. A Venetian merchant vessel was set alight by forces under the bey - or ruler - of Tunis, amid fears it had been infected with the plague. From autumn 1784 onwards and the following year, the Venetian fleet bombarded cities including Sfax.

1349: Pestilence in Syria

Ibn al-Wardi (1292-1349), a Syrian historian, was born in Maarat al-Numan. He wrote vividly about the Black Death, which swept through the world during the mid 14th-century, from Asia into the Middle East and then on to Europe.

Al-Wardi was living in Aleppo when the plague reached there in 1349, devastating the city for 15 years and claiming around 1,000 lives every day. His An Essay on the Report of the Pestilence , is a historical account of its impact on the Levante.

The plague began in the land of darkness. China was not preserved from it. The plague infected the Indians in India, the Sind, the Persians, and the Crimea. The plague destroyed mankind in Cairo. It stilled all movement in Alexandria.

Then, the plague turned to Upper Egypt. The plague attacked Gaza, trapped Sidon, and Beirut. Next, it directed its shooting arrows to Damascus. There the plague sat like a lion on a throne and swayed with power, killing daily one thousand or more and destroying the population.

Oh God, it is acting by Your command. Lift this from us. It happens where You wish; keep the plague from us.

Al-Wardi also wrote two poetry verses about the pandemic:

I do not scare from Black Death as others It is but a martyrdom or victory If I died, I rested from the rivalries And If I lived, my eye and ear heald

He died two days later from the Black Death, which causes inflammation of glands on the neck, armpit and groin.

10th century: Fever in Egypt

Night Visitor , the ode by Iraqi-Syrian poet al-Mutannabi  (915-965) to fever, is widely considered one the masterpieces of classical Arabic poetry.

Born in Kufa, Iraq, as Ahmed bin al-Hussein al-Kindi, al-Mutannabi’s nickname translates as "he who would be a prophet”. He treated poetry with zeal and relied on senses and experiences rather than mere abstractions for his inspiration.

Night Visitor depicts the condition as a shy lover, sneaking into Mutannabi’s bed after dark. The reader can viscerally feel and see this unwelcome guest, as the verse creates a sense of how fever makes its victim delirious, sweaty and fatigued.

Mutannabi's metaphors and play on language poem were unique at the time, not least the idea of the fever - which is never medically specified - as a night visitor.

Mutannabi was under stress when he wrote the poem in Egypt, having just fallen out with best friend Sayf al-Dawla, the ruler of Aleppo, after intellectual in-fighting at the royal court. He was killed by bandits in 965 while travelling from Ahvaz in modern-day Iran. His influence at the time was such that news of his death reverberated like thunder around the Muslim world.

For she does not pay her visits save under cover of darkness, I freely offered her my linen and my pillows, But she refused them, and spent the night in my bones.

My skin is too contracted to contain both my breath and her, So she relaxes it with all sorts of sickness. When she leaves me, she washes me As though we had retired apart for some forbidden action. It is as though the morning drives her away, And her lachrymal ducts are flooded in their four channels. I watch for her time without desire, Yet with the watchfulness of the eager lover.

Taken from Arabian Medicine : The FitzPatrick Lectures Delivered at the College of Physicians in November 1919 and November 1920

9th century: Guidance in Iraq

One of the earliest scholars to write a book about the Black Death was the Iraqi Ibn Abi al-Dunya (823-894). Revered as a teacher, he tutored the Abbasid caliphs, who ruled territory extending across North Africa, the Arabian peninsula, the Levant and modern-day Iran and Afghanistan.

During the early centuries of Islam, little was written about pestilence: until the ninth century, no serious scholar had dedicated a book to the subject or suggested measures to take to avoid contagion.

Ibn Abi al-Dunya was the first to change that: that he had access to the most powerful rulers of the time meant that his word carried weight (he was, in effect, the closest that Baghdad had to the WHO).

In  The Book of Pestilences he included a hadith about fever:

The Messenger of Allah, peace and blessings be upon him, entered the home of Umm Sa’ib and he said, “What ails you, O Umm Sa’ib? You are shivering.”

She said: “It is a fever. Allah has not blessed it.”

The Prophet said: “Do not curse fever. Verily, it removes the sins of the children of Adam, just as a furnace removes dirt from iron.”

The Book of Illness and Atonements , meanwhile, gives examples of how people recovered from illness, including the Prophet Muhammad, during the early days of Islam.

His work was later cited by Ibn Hajar al-Asqalani (1372-1449), born in the Palestinian town of Askalan, who became a noted scholar in Cairo, one of the Middle East’s major seats of learning.

His book  Offering Almsgiving in the Grace of Pestilence , was to prove one of the most popular works on the Black Death, which had just swept the eastern hemisphere.

639: Hadiths in Palestine

The Palestinian village of Emmaus lies between Jerusalem and Ramleh. In 639 it was hit by a plague that spread across the Levant and claimed the lives of many of the Prophet Muhammad’s companions.

Around 25,000 died in the plague of Emmaus, including the companions Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, Muadh ibn Jabal, Shurahbil ibn Hasana and Yazid ibn Abu Sufyan. As a result, Muslim scholars wrote about what the plague was, steps that residents should take, the best food to eat, personal hygiene and how to move from city to city.

One of the widely cited hadiths of Prophet Muhammad in books about plagues, advises: 

If you hear of an outbreak of plague in a land, do not enter it; but if the plague outbreaks out in a place while you are in it, do not leave that place.

Another hadith read:

Those with contagious diseases should be kept away from those who are healthy

Isolation and staying at home: as relevant now as they were 1,400 years ago.

This article is available in French on Middle East Eye French edition. 

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High (Plague) Anxiety: Reading the Specter of Pestilence in Late 14th Century British Literature

2017, NYU English Masters Thesis

Despite the widespread suffering caused by the Black Death in England from 1347-1351, few contemporary accounts of the plague or descriptions of plague bodies themselves survive. However, the absence of explicit representation should not be taken as an absence of widespread psychological effect on the medieval population; rather, the scars and anxieties of the plague very much marred the individual and collective psyche of plague survivors as it did their bodies: we just need to know where to look for them. This paper undertakes a search for representations of plague anxiety, for the ways that literature registered-- implicitly and explicitly-- the deep-seated trauma and cultural anxiety resulting from the Black Death from the mid to late 14th century; specifically, it reexamines bodies represented in 14th century devotional and literary texts as bodies suffering from the physical and psychological ravages of The Black Death. Sometimes plague is the overt subject of the text, as in Langland’s Piers Plowman. In other cases, such as Chaucer’s “Pardoner’s Tale,” plague is not named, but represented obliquely through a common set of metaphors. In some instances, trauma is revealed in the description of physical manifestations of sinfulness, as in the Dead Sea’s striking resemblance to a plague bubo in the Pearl Poet’s “Cleanness,” or as the crucified body of Christ resembles a plague-ridden body in Julian of Norwich’s Showings. By reexamining these texts through the lens of plague anxiety, we can see the influence plague-ridden bodies had on late 14th century Britons.

Related Papers

Kimberly A Coles

Nat Hardy, PhD, MFA, FRSA

Abstract This dissertation investigates the satirical anatomy of pestilence and the satiric disgust of plague in early modern London. Through the metaphor of the anatomy, satirical anatomists dissected and refashioned the threatened abject bodies of plague: the uninfected bodies and infected bodies of epidemical London. These discursively constructed bodies were symbolically dismembered in a rhetorical invective of satiric blame and disgust. The introduction establishes a definition of plague satire and constructs a methodological framework for its theoretical and historical method. This “grotesque historicism” contextualizes the social and intellectual climate, and the satirical temper as it affects both the early modern conception of “pestilential visitations” and our own understanding of epidemical crisis. Chapter one investigates the emergence of the satirical anatomy, the disciplinary violence and fraudulent empiricism of these allegorical vivisections, and how disgust was used to represent plague in the early modern period. The second chapter explores the mythical origins of the uninfected, abject body; an excremental ontology that was largely fashioned out of embellished biblical typologies. This section demonstrates how satirists used religion and natural philosophy to deform and muddy the grotesque body, a methodology that reestablished the body as a defiling vessel of dung. Chapter three examines the infected body’s toxic discharges and its taxonomy of suppurating sores. This chapter explains how the deformed body was punished through retributive justice, and why this discharging vessel was scapegoated as a source of fear and loathing owing to its contaminating presence. The fourth chapter investigates the infected body’s miasmatic effluents and the hysteria of smells. This chapter examines how anatomising satirists dissected the stench of pestilence, how the defiling moral properties of smells mirrored the prophane state of the body and the city, and how the repulsive odours of plague reinforced the phobic response to pestilence. The conclusion examines the grotesque history of plague satire, a history distorted through the metaphor of the anatomy. This concluding section surveys how the the anatomy helped cultivate a phobic hatred and misanthropical disgust for the “undisplaced myths” of this retributive disease and its sufferers.

Paola Baseotto

Philomathes

Daniel Hughes

Plague literature by Poe and Lucretius remains highly relevant today as we encounter a human future still defined by infectious diseases. This essay analyzes the oscillation of plague metaphor and non-metaphor in De Rerum Natura (Book VI) by Lucretius and “The Masque of the Red Death” by Edgar Allan Poe. These plague texts are literary palimpsests, with Lucretius rewriting Thucydides and his account of the Athenian plague, and Poe rewriting Boccaccio’s Decameron and its portrayal of literary escape from the bubonic plague. The accounts of plague in Lucretius and Poe 1) oscillate between metaphorical representations of disease and non-metaphorical representations of disease and 2) possess abrupt textual disruptions and failures of metaphor. These disruptions allow for an opening of interpretation and new metaphors, but also invite inquiry into the authors’ biographies and literal deaths. The liberatory possibilities via these textual disruptions may allow the reader participation in a more authentic Being-towards-death as understood by Heidegger in Being and Time. Moreover, the contemplation of our actual future deaths, alongside those of plague victims past and present, with the interrelated moral, ethical, and social implications, may inaugurate a more authentic human relationship to both death and time.

Social History of Medicine

Vanessa Harding

The Journal of Early Modern Studies

Edward B . M . Rendall

The article analyses the connection between seventeenth-century English needlework, drama, and plague. Frog pouches-needleworked, perfumed sweet bags used to repel the miasmatic spread of plague-reveal wider attitudes about foreign landscapes in seventeenth-century London and England more generally. This article, then, uses the works of Shakespeare, Jonson, and other playwrights and authors of the period, as well as the materials of frog pouches themselves, to explore the exoticism and accessibility of those environments that frogs inhabit. Foreign animals that lived far from English shores, the article argues, thus provided the scents for pouches. The animals that these pouches mimic reveal a reverence for the rural landscape closer to home but just as unknown.

William Eamon

Plague Literature: Lessons for Living Well during a Pandemic

Dustin Peone

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, many new techniques for remaining healthy have been introduced, but there is little public discussion about how to live well. “Social distancing” is good medicine for the body, but the health of the spirit depends on wisdom. We are all in strange territory, and under such conditions we can only look to the past for counsel. In this book, the philosopher Dustin Peone offers reflections on ten literary classics set during plague times. From each work, he draws one central insight that is applicable to our situation today. These insights are lessons in prudence, taught by the sages of the past. This is a book about how to pursue the good life during a pandemic and what it means to flourish in dark times.

Aureo Lustosa Guerios

In this work, I discuss how and why certain texts, published during or immediately after cholera epidemics, opt to represent the plague instead of cholera. They are Paul LaCroix's serial novel La Dance Macabre (1832), Flaubert's short story La Peste a Florence (1836), Ainsworth's Old Saint Pauls' (1841) and Manzoni's I Promessi Sposi (1842). In order to analyse these texts, I will use tools of comparative literature and will dialogue with recent plague scholarship (Palud 2014; Cooke 2009; Totaro 2005; Boeckl 2000).

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The Black Death, The Great Mortality of 1348-1350

Second  edition | ©2017  john aberth.

ISBN:9781319049911

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A fascinating account of the plague that ravaged the world. In this new edition, an updated introduction provides important background information and addresses the "plague denial" controversy. A new section of documents on environmental explanations for and responses to the plague joins sections on the origin and spread of the illness; the responses of medical practitioners; the societal and economic impact; religious responses; the flagellant movement and attacks on Jews provoked by the plague; and the artistic response. Documents from many countries — including Muslim and Byzantine sources — give you a variety of perspectives on this devastating illness and its consequences.. The volume also includes document headnotes, a chronology of the Black Death, Questions for Consideration, a selected bibliography, and an index

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Table of Contents

John Aberth

John Aberth lives in Roxbury, Vermont, and teaches history at Vermonts Castleton State College, where he formerly served as associate academic dean. He has taught history at a number of other institutions, including Middlebury College, the University of Vermont, St. Michaels College, the University of Nebraska, and Norwich University. He received his PhD in Medieval History from Cambridge University in England, and has published several books, including Churchmen in the Age of Edward III: The Case of Bishop Thomas de Lisle (1996); From the Brink of the Apocalypse: Confronting Famine, War, Plague and Death (2000); and A Knight at the Movies: Medieval History on Film (2003).

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Online Medieval Sources Bibliography

An annotated bibliography of printed and online primary sources for the middle ages, source details.

Aberth, John, ed., trans., The Black Death: The Great Mortality of 1348-1350: A Brief History with Documents (Boston: Bedford/St. Martin's: The Bedford Series in History and Culture)

Text name(s):  

Number of pages of primary source text:  149

• Abu Hafs 'Umar
• Agnolo di Tura
• Boccaccio, Giovanni
• Gentile da Foligno
• Jean de Venette
• Lydgate, John
• Villani, Giovanni

Dates:  1347 - 1500

Archival Reference:  

• French - Old French
• English - Middle English
• Translated into English.

Translation Comments:  Aberth notes the assistance of colleagues for translations. Aubry Threlkeld and Thomas Huber (Italian and German), Walid Saleh (Arabic), Samuel Cohn (Latin and English) are named specifically.

• Switzerland
• Middle East
• British Isles

County/Region:  Wiltshire; Canterbury; Ely; Flanders; Strasbourg; Paris; Avignon; Montpellier; Sarraz (Switzerland); Westphalia (Germany); Siena; Florence; Foligno; Catania (Sicily); Castile; Aragon; Barcelona; Lérida (Spain); Constantinople; Syria; Damascus

• Treatise - Scientific/Medical
• Literature - Prose
• Register - Bishop
• Literature - Verse
• Law - Legislation
• Law - Local Ordinances
• Chronicle Annals
• Treatise - Instruction/Advice
• Royalty / Monarchs
• Plague and Disease
• Nobility / Gentry
• Muslims / Islam
• Material Culture: Food Clothing, Household
• Literature - Didactic
• Literature - Allegory
• Law - Canon
• Law - Secular
• Jews / Judaism
• Towns / Cities
• Bibliography
• Introduction

John Aberth gathers an extensive collection of fourteenth- and fifteenth-century texts that give accounts of the Black Death and details the contemporary outlook after the plague struck. The Black Death was a pandemic of Yersina pestis (often called bubonic plague) that initially struck Europe and the Middle East in the late 1340s, lasting until the early 1350s. However, this was just the first wave; the plague continued to ravage the area in waves for decades.

This work includes an introduction, appendices, and an index. The appendices include a timeline of the Black Death, questions to consider, and a selected bibliography. The bibliography makes suggestions for general works, plague demography and geography, biological and medical aspects, social and economic aspects, religious mentalities, flagellants, Jewish pogroms, and artistic aspects. The index is comprehensive, offering authorial, geographical, and subject references for the reader. Aberth also includes a preface, in which he quickly details the events of the Black Death, discusses his purpose in compiling this book, makes a note on the translation, and provides acknowledgments.

This book would be ideal for someone who is just approaching the Black Death as a field. Most of the texts are excerpts; therefore it may not be optimal for extensive research on a specific text. It would, however, be useful if trying to understand what the content of text may be like or what the background of a text may be. Aberth helpfully includes a brief introduction to each document, generally stating the author with a short biography, where the text was created, and the context and content of the text. He also groups the documents by overall subject, and somewhat chronologically. For each subject, he provides a brief introduction giving context for the documents.

1. Geographical Origins 1. Nicephorus Gregoras, Byzantine History , ca. 1359 2. Ab? Hafs Umar Ibn al-Ward?, Essay on the Report of the Pestilence , ca. 1348 3. Giovanni Villani, Chronicle , ca. 1348 4. Louis Sanctus, Letter , April 27, 1348

2. Symptoms and Transmission 5. Michele da Piazza, Chronicle , 1347-1361 6. Giovanni Boccaccio, Introduction to The Decameron, 1349-1351 7. Louis Sanctus, Letter , April 27, 1348 8. John VI Kantakouzenos, History , 1367-1369

3. Medical Responses 9. Medical Faculty of the University of Paris, Consultation , October 6, 1348 10. Alfonso de Córdoba, Letter and Regimen concerning the Pestilence , ca. 1348 11. Gentile da Foligno, Short Casebook , 1348 12. Jacme d’Agramont, Regimen of Protection against Epidemics , April 24, 1348. 13. Ab? Ja far Ahmad Ibn Kh?tima, Description and Remedy for Escaping the Plague , February 1349 14. Gui de Chauliac, Great Surgery , 1363

4. Societal and Economic Impact 15. Francesco Petrarch, Letters on Familiar Matters 16. Giovanni Boccaccio, Introduction to The Decameron, 1349-1351 17. Agnolo di Tura, Sienese Chronicle , 1348-1351 18. Jean de Venette, Chronicle , ca. 1359-1360 19. Ahmad Ibn Al? al-Maqr?z?, A History of the Ayyubids and Mamluks , 15th century 20. City Council of Siena, Ordinance , May 1349 21. The Córtes of Castile, Ordinance , 1351 22. Wiltshire, England, Assize Roll of Labor Offenders , June 11, 1352

5. Religious Mentalities 23. Gabriele de Mussis, History of the Plague , 1348 24. Michele da Piazza, Chronicle , 1347-1361 25. Simon Islip, Archbishop of Canterbury, Effrenata (Unbridled), May 28, 1350 26. Hamo Hethe, Bishop of Rochester, and Thomas de Lisle, Bishop of Ely, Post-Plague Parish Poverty , July 1, 1349, and September 20, 1349 27. Libertus of Monte Feche, Last Will and Testament , September 21, 1348 28. Im?d al-D?n Ab? ‘l-Fid?’ Ism? ?l b. Umar Ibn Kath?r, The Beginning and End: On History , ca. 1350-1351 29. Ab? Hafs Umar Ibn al-Ward?, Essay on the Report of the Pestilence , ca. 1348 30 Lis?n al-D?n Ibn al-Khat?b, A Very Useful Inquiry into the Horrible Sickness , 1349-1352

6. The Psyche of Hysteria The Flagellents 31. Heinrich of Herford, Book of Memorable Matters , ca. 1349-1355 32. Fritsche Closener, Chronicle , 1360-1362 33. Gillse li Muisis, Chronicle , 1350 34. King Philip VI of France, Mandate to Suppress the Flagellants , February 15, 1350

Jewish Pogroms 35. King Pedro IV of Aragon, Response to Jewish Pogrom of Tárrega , December 23, 1349 36. Takkanoth (Accord) of Barcelona , September 1354 37. Interrogation of the Jews of Savoy , September-October 1348 38. Mathias of Neuenburg, Chronicle , ca. 1349-1350 39. Konrad of Megenberg, Concerning the Mortality in Germany , ca. 1350 40. Pope Clement VI, Sicut Judeis (Mandate to Protect the Jews), October 1, 1348

7. Artistic Response The Dance of Death 41. The Great Chronicle of France , ca. 1348 42. John Lydgate, The Dance of Death , ca. 1430 43. Death as Chess Player, St. Andrew’s Church, Norwich , ca. 1500

Transi Tombs 44. François de la Sarra, Tomb at La Sarraz, Switzerland , ca. 1390 45. Archbishop Henry Chichele, Tomb at Canterbury Cathedral , ca. 1425 46. Disputacioun betwyx the Body and Wormes , ca. 1450

Aberth uses his introduction (7 pp.) to describe the event of the Black Death, its historical significance, and how to use medieval sources to better understand what happened.

Cataloger:  HVH

Plague Anthology

Ibn al-Wardi – On the Advance of Plague – 1348

Ibn al-Wardi (1292-1348/9) was a Syrian historian and geographer.

The Plague frightened and killed. It began in the land of darkness. Oh, what a visitor! It has been current for fifteen years. China was not preserved from it nor could the strongest fortress hinder it. The plague afflicted the Indians in India. It weighed upon the Sind. It seized with its hand and ensnared even the land of the Uzbeks. How many backs did it break in what is Transoxiana? The plague increased and spread further. It attacked the Persians…and gnawed away at the Crimea. It pelted Rum with live coals and led the outrage to Cyprus and the islands. The plague destroyed mankind in Cairo. Its eye was cast upon Egypt, and behold, the people were wide awake. It stilled all movement in Alexandria. The plague did its work like a silkworm. It took from the tiraz *factory its beauty and did to its workers what fate decreed.

Oh Alexandria; this plague is like a lion which extends its paw to you. Have patience with the fate of the plague, which leaves of seventy men only seven.

Then, the plague turned to Upper Egypt. It also sent forth its storm to Barqah. The plague attacked Gaza, and it shook Asqalan severely. The plague oppressed Acre. The scourge came to Jerusalem and paid the zakat **[with the souls of men]. It overtook those people who fled to the al-Aqsa mosque, which stands beside the Dome of the Rock. If the door of mercy had not been opened, the end of the world would have occurred in a moment. It, then, hastened its pace and attacked the entire maritime plain. The plague attacked Sidon and descended unexpectedly upon Beirut, cunningly. Next, it directed the shooting of its arrows to Damascus. There the plague sat like a king on a throne and swayed with power, killing daily 1000 or more and decimating the population. It destroyed mankind with its pustules. May God the Most High spare Damascus to pursue its own path and extinguish the plague’s fires so they do not come close to her fragrant orchards.

Oh God, restore Damascus and protect her from insult. Its morale has been so lowered that people in the city sell themselves for a grain.

Oh God, it is acting by Your command. Lift this from us. It happens where You wish; keep the plague from us. Who will defend us against the horror other than You the Almighty? . . .

How many places has the plague entered. It swore not to leave the houses without [taking] their inhabitants. It searched them with a lamp. The pestilence caused the people of Aleppo the same disturbance. It sent out its snake and crept along. It was named the “Plague of the Ansab .” ***It was the sixth plague to strike in Islam. To me it is the death of which our Prophet warned, on him be the best prayers and peace.

One man begs another to take care of his children, one says goodbye to his neighbors. A third perfects his works, and another prepares his shroud. A fifth is reconciled with his enemies, and another treats his friends with kindness. One is very generous; another makes friends with those who have betrayed him. Another man puts aside his property; one frees his servants [slaves]. One man changes his character while another mends his ways. For this plague has captured all people and is about to send its ultimate destruction. There is no protection today from it other than His mercy, praise be to God.

Nothing prevented us from running away from the plague except our devotion to the noble tradition. Come then, seek the aid of God Almighty for raising the plague, for He is the best helper.

Ibn al-Wardi goes on to mention the medical precautions taken in Aleppo :

 Oh, if you could see the nobles of Aleppo studying their inscrutable books of medicine. They multiply its remedies by eating dried and sour foods. The buboes which disturb men’s healthy lives are smeared the Armenian clay. Each man treated his humours and made his life more comfortable. They perfumed their homes with ambergris and camphor, cyprus and sandal. They wore ruby rings and put onions, vinegar, and sardines together with the daily meal. They ate less broth and fruit but ate the citron and similar things.

In the Muslim world, there was a tension between the learning of the physicians, based on classical medicine and the religious tradition, based on the Hadith , or sayings of the Prophet Muhammad. According to the latter, disease of any kind came from Allah, perhaps as punishment for sin, and any attempt to avoid it was impious and anyway pointless, because no matter where one fled, if it was Allah’s will, one would die. The question of contagion was, therefore, in a sense irrelevant. To die of plague was considered martyrdom and martyrdom was highly desirable, as affording immediate entry into paradise, hence Ibn al-Wardi’s words, contrasting the attitude of the Muslim and the non-Muslim:

The dwellers of Sis are happy with what afflicts us, and this is what you can expect from the enemies of the true religion. God will spread it to them soon so that He will put plague upon plague.

The plague is for Muslims a martyrdom and a reward, and for the unbelievers a punishment and a rebuke. When the Muslim endures misfortune, then patience is his worship. It has been established by our Prophet, God bless him and give him peace, that the plague-stricken are martyrs. This noble tradition is true and assures martyrdom. And this secret should be pleasing to the true believer. If someone says it causes infection and destruction, say: God creates and recreates. If the liar disputes the matter of infection and tries to find an explanation, I say that the Prophet, on him be peace, said: who was infected the first? If we acknowledge the plague’s devastation of the people, it is the will of the Chosen Doer. So it has happened again and again.

Ibn al-Wardi wrote some verses on the plague, two days before he died of it at Aleppo in 1349:

I am not afraid of the plague as others are – It is a martyrdom, or else a victory. If I die, I rest from rivalry and strife, If I live, my eye and ear [understanding] will be healed

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

*tiraz  – officially produced textiles of the highest quality, generally with calligraphic inscriptions, or the factories where they were woven.

** zakat – alms-giving (2.5%), religiously mandated in Islam.

*** ansab – sacrificial alters from before Islam.

Owing to libraries being closed due to our present plague, I was not able to find a translation for Ibn al-Wardi’s text. The quotations here are taken from the internet and were often not credited. I believe the most probably sources are the following.

Michael W. Dols, The Black Death in the Middle East, ( Princeton; Princeton University Press, 1977) .

Michael W. Dols, “Ibn al-Wardi’s Risalah Al- Naba’ ‘An Al-Waba’, A Translation of a Major Source for the History of the Black Death in the Middle East,” in Dickran K. Kouymjian, ed . Near Eastern Numismatics,  Iconography, Epigraphy and History (Beirut; American University of Beirut, 1974).

There is an extensive literature on the Black Death, but an in interesting article on the different perceptions of contagion in Islam is:

  “There is no contagion, there is no evil portent”: Arabic Responses to Plague and Contagion in the Fourteenth Century, Robin S Reich – available on-line at www.academia.edu

And a useful survey of Arabic Plague literature:

Lawrence I. Conrad, Arabic Plague chronicles and treatises in Studia Islamica no.54 (1981) pp.51-93.

N.B. In case I have infringed copyright on any occasion, please notify me and I will immediately delete the post.

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We’ve Been Here Before: Plague and Pestilence in Pre-Modern Islamic History

Published: April 17, 2020 • Updated: October 6, 2020

Author : Abdul Rahman Latif

بِسْمِ اللهِ الرَّحْمٰنِ الرَّحِيْمِ

In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

For more on this topic, see Faith in the Time of COVID-19

Introduction.

Early perceptions of the origins of plagues

A few visceral ‘human’ responses to disease in late antiquity.

When Abū Bakr's fever got worse, he would recite (this poetic verse): “Everybody is staying alive with his people, yet death is nearer to him than His laces.” And Bilāl, when his fever deserted him, would recite: “Would that I could stay overnight in a valley wherein I would be surrounded by  idhkhir  and  jalil  (kinds of good-smelling grass). Would that one day I could drink the water of the Majanna, and would that [the two mountains] Shāmah and Tafil would appear to me!”

A 14th-century discussion of plague: The treatise of Ibn al-Wardī

Devout medieval reactions to sicknesses and disasters, incidents of  masjid  closures due to pestilence, concluding remarks, recommendations for further reading.

Disclaimer: The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in these papers and articles are strictly those of the authors. Furthermore, Yaqeen does not endorse any of the personal views of the authors on any platform. Our team is diverse on all fronts, allowing for constant, enriching dialogue that helps us produce high-quality research.

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The Black Death : the great mortality of 1348-1350 : a brief history with documents /

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• A Note about the Text and Translations
• List of Illustrations
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• 1. Geographical Origins
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• Giovanni Boccaccio, Introduction to The Decameron, 1349-1351
• John VI Kantakouzenos, History, 1367-1369
• 3. Medical Responses
• Medical Faculty of the University of Paris, Consultation, October 6, 1348
• Alfonso de Cã³rdoba, Letter and Regimen concerning the Pestilence, ca. 1348

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Epidemics and Ideas: Essays on the Historical Perception of Pestilence

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• Published: 01 December 2000
• Volume 21 , pages 471–473, ( 2000 )

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Benenson, A. Epidemics and Ideas: Essays on the Historical Perception of Pestilence. J Public Health Pol 21 , 471–473 (2000). https://doi.org/10.2307/3343284

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Source: Ibn Al-Wardi, an Essay on the Report of the Pestilence, 1348

Source: Ibn al-Wardi, “An Essay on the Report of the Pestilence,” 1348.

The passage below is an excerpt from Ibn al-Wardi’s “An Essay on the Report of the Pestilence.” Ibn al-Wardi was an Arab writer, philosopher, and historian who was alive in the Middle East during the plague. Here, he describes the effects of the plague on the city of Allepo in Syria. In 1349, al-Wardi died from the plague.

“God is my security in every adversity. My sufficiency in God alone. I not God sufficient protection for His servant? Oh God, pray for our master, Muhammad, and give him peace. Save us for his sake from the attacks of the plague and give us shelter.

The Plague frightened and killed. It began in the land of darkness. Oh, what a visitor! It has been current for fifteen years. China was not preserved from it nor could the strongest fortress hinder it. The plague afflicted the Indians in India. It weighed upon the Sind. It seized with its hand and ensnared even the land of the Uzbeks. How many backs did it break in what is Transoxiana? The plague increased and spread further. It attacked the Persians...and gnawed away at the Crimea. It pelted Rum with live coals and led the outrage to Cyprus and the islands. The plague destroyed mankind in Cairo. Its eye was cast upon Egypt, and behold, the people were wide awake. It stilled all movement in Alexandria. The plague did its work like a silkworm. It tool from the tiraz factory its beauty and did to its workers what fate decreed.

Oh Alexandria; this plague is like a lion which extends its arm to you. Have patience with the fate of the plague, which leaves of seventy men only seven.

Then, the plague turned to Upper Egypt. It also sent forth its storm to Barqah. The plague attacked Gaza, and it shook Asqalan severely. The plague oppressed Acre. The sourge came to Jerusalem and paid the zakat [with the souls of men]. It overtook those people who fled to the al-Aqsa mosque, which stands beside the Dome of the Rock. If the door of mercy had not been opened, the end of the world would have occurred in a moment. It, then, hastened its pace and attacked the entire maritime plain. The plague strapped Sidon and descended unexpectedly upon Beirut, cunningly. Next, it directed the shooting of its arrows to Damascus. There the plague sat like a king on a throne and swayed with power, killing daily 1000 or more and decimating the population. It destroyed mankind with its pustules. May God the Most High spare Damascus to pursue its own path and extinguish the plague’s fires so they do not come close to her fragrant orchards.

Oh God, restore Damascus and protect her from insult. Its morale has been so lowered that people in the city sell themselves for a grain.

Oh God, it is acting by Your command. Lift this from us. It happens where You wish; keep the plague from us. Who will defend us against the horror other than You the Almighty? . . .

How many places has the plague entered. It swore not to leave the houses without its inhabitants. It searched them with a lamp. The pestilence caused the people of Alleppo the same disturbance. It sent out its snake and crept along. It was named the “Plague of the Ansab.” It was the sixth plague to strike in Islam. To me it is the death of which our prophet warned, on him be the best prayers and peace.

One man begs another to take care of his children, one says goodbye to his neighbors.

A third perfects his works, and another prepares his shroud.

A fifth is reconciled with his enemies, and another treats his friends with kindness.

One is very generous; another makes friends with those who have betrayed him.

Another man puts aside his property; one frees his servants.

One man changes his character while another mends his ways.

For this plague has captured all people and is about to send its ultimate destruction.

There is no protection today from it other than His mercy, praise be to God.

Nothing prevented us from running away from the plague except our devotion to the noble tradition. Come then, seek the aid of God Almighty for raising the plague, for He is the best helper. Oh God, we call You to raise from us the petulance and plague. We do not take refuge in its removal other than with You. We do not depend on our good health against the plague but on You. We seek your protection, Oh Lord of creation, from the blows of the stick. We ask for Your mercy which is wider than our sins even as they are the number of the sands and the pebbles. We plead with You, by the most honored of the advocates, Muhammad, the Prophet of mercy, that You take away from us this distress. Protect us from evil and the torture and preserve us. For You are our sole support; what a perfect trustee!”

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What we can and can’t know about the death toll in Gaza

The united nations adjusted its gaza fatality reporting. here’s what the data does and doesn’t tell us..

From the earliest days of the Israel-Hamas war, global leaders have questioned the reliability of fatality data coming out of Gaza. In October, without citing a specific reason, President Joe Biden said he had  “no confidence”  in the numbers.

Today, the overall figure of people dead is reported at about 35,000. But there’s no clear understanding about how many of these people are combatants and how many are civilians.

That’s because over most of the conflict, the figures have come from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, an agency of the region’s Hamas-controlled government.

Hamas, identified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. in 1997,  has ruled Gaza since it swept a majority in 2006 parliamentary elections. After Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing more than 1,200 people, Israel in its retaliation  largely blocked   foreign journalists  from entering the Gaza strip. Israeli  protesters blocked   humanitarian aid . And Israeli attacks crushed Gaza’s infrastructure, fueling mounting concern about the Ministry of Health’s fatality data’s accuracy.

Without any other options, the United Nations and other leaders rely on Hamas government figures despite little transparency over its sources or methodology.

Its Ministry of Health describes all casualties as  victims of  “Israeli aggression.”

Confusion over the figures reached a boiling point  May 8 , when the U.N. released data that showed a significant reduction in the number of women and children who had died Gaza:

On  May 6,  the U.N. had reported greater than 9,500 women and greater than 14,500 children dead. Two days later, the figures showed 4,959 women and 7,797 children.

“UN halves estimates of women and children killed in Gaza,” MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” cohost Joe Scarborough wrote in a May 12  X post . Scarborough shared  a May 11 Jerusalem Post article  and said, “Apparently, the Hamas figures repeatedly cited are false.”

Israeli officials also seized on the change: “The miraculous resurrection of the dead in Gaza,” Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote in a  May 13 X post . “The @UN had reduced its estimate of women and children killed in Gaza by 50% and claims that it relied on data from the Hamas Ministry of Health. Anyone who relies on fake data from a terrorist organization in order to promote blood libels against Israel is antisemitic and supports terrorism.”

Another  May 13 Instagram post  said, “The UN quietly admitted the casualty numbers in Gaza were OVER INFLATED by nearly half.”

Others said that critiques of the Ministry of Health’s fatality data went too far. Edward Ahmed Mitchell, deputy executive director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said that the reported death toll out of Gaza is likely an undercount of what he described as “mass slaughter.”

Louis Charbonneau, the U.N. director at Human Rights Watch, said no one is going to have exact numbers, but the Ministry of Health data is the best available. “Death tolls are a messy business — extremely difficult,” Charbonneau said. “And at the end of the day, no one is expecting 100% accuracy because it’s just impossible. We know the number’s big.”

How much can the available data tell us? It’s complicated.

Did the fatality statistics get ‘halved’?

Not according to the U.N.’s explanation.

Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for the United Nations Secretary-General, said the overall number of fatalities recorded by authorities in Gaza and reported by the U.N. have “remained unchanged at more than 35,000 people” since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a violent attack on Israel. But the subcategorization on deaths of women and children changed because the ministry provided an updated breakdown of those whose identities it said had been fully documented. This was a smaller subset of the total number of fatalities.

Typically, when a conflict occurs, the U.N. gets its casualty data from what Haq described as “our trusted sources on the ground,” then it cross-checks that information. The scale and intensity of the fighting in Gaza, however, sets this conflict apart and, in this case, Haq said, the U.N. has no means to verify firsthand the Ministry of Health’s data.

Although the data cannot be interpreted as incontrovertible, the U.N., World Health Organization and organizations that track conflict casualties said Hamas’ government-sourced data should not be dismissed outright.

Following previous conflicts, the U.N.’s efforts to independently verify the Ministry of Health’s fatality data found only  small discrepancies . That said, this conflict stands apart in its scale of destruction, experts said, making the statistics’ reliability more of an open question.

Between the  May 6  and  May 8  updates, the total number of reported fatalities increased from  34,735 people  to  34,844 people , including a subset of more than 10,000 people “reported missing or under the rubble.”

(Screenshot/United Nations)

The Government Media Office provided the May 6 estimate of reported fatalities, which included more than 9,500 women and more than 14,500 children. The U.N.’s May 8 graphic’s demographic breakdown is what sparked confusion and concern.

That graphic shows the Ministry of Health’s data for a smaller subset of the nearly 35,000 reported casualties, Haq said. It provides a breakdown of demographic information for 24,686 people the ministry had fully identified with their dates of birth and death, gender and ID number and whose deaths it had documented as of April 30, U.N. spokesperson Jens Laerke  explained May 17 .

During a  May 13 briefing , Haq said the change came after the Ministry of Health provided an updated breakdown of fatalities “for whom full details have been documented.”

“Out of those, then — out of that smaller number, that subset of identified bodies — you have 7,797 children, 4,959 women, 1,924 elderly and 10,006 men,” Haq said during the briefing. People in the “elderly” group are not categorized by gender.

The Ministry of Health told the U.N. that it is still in the process of detailing the identities of all who are found dead, according to Haq.

We tried to contact the Government Media Office and Ministry of Health for additional information about the data but did not hear back.

How are deaths being recorded?

Early in the conflict, fatality data came from public and private hospitals, where medical workers recorded names, ages, genders and ID numbers of people who died. The information went into an electronic database, according to  news   reports .

Attacks on hospitals and  communications blackouts  significantly impacted the quality of data over time, researchers at organizations that track data about armed conflict told us.

On Dec. 11, 2023, the Ministry of Health announced in a statistical digest that it had started incorporating media sources for its fatality figures, said David Adesnik, a senior fellow and research director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative, foreign policy-focused think tank. The ministry did not identify what media sources it was relying on but the proportion of data coming from media accounts increased over time, Adesnik said: “Media sources served as the documentation for more than three-fourths of deaths counted during the first three months of 2024.”

The biggest change in the U.N.’s data in early May wasn’t the data format, but its source, Adesnik said.

The May 6 update sourced its information on women and children killed to the Government Media Office; the May 8 update identified only the Ministry of Health.

During a  May 17 press briefing , Laerke said that the U.N. views the Ministry of Health as the “best available source” for fatality data. Although the Government Media Office breakdown was used for a period when the ministry couldn’t provide data, the U.N. switched back to the ministry’s data when it became available again “because we provide the best available data at the time of reporting.”

What’s uncertain about the death toll in Gaza?

Salma Eissa, Middle East research manager for the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, said data quality has diminished.

“There has been a discernible downward trend in the quality of the data, which has continued since mid-February when only three of the eight Gaza hospitals meant to track fatalities were doing so,” Eissa said, citing  April analysis  by U.K.-based Action on Armed Violence, which records and investigates armed violence against civilians globally.

Rachel Taylor, the executive director at Every Casualty Counts, a U.K.-based organization that focuses on recording and identifying armed violence deaths, said that the current scale of devastation means the Ministry of Health’s data collection methodology “can no longer be applied consistently” as it has in the past.

“Over the course of the violence, the hospitals have been destroyed,” said Taylor, who anticipates the actual numbers are higher than is being reported. “The morgues have been destroyed. The paper records have been destroyed. Healthcare professionals have been killed or displaced.”

In the  May 12 episode  of the “Call Me Back” podcast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that about 14,000 combatants had been killed “and probably around 16,000 civilians have been killed.” We contacted the Israeli Defense Forces for additional information about that data and received no response.

Experts at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project cautioned that the Ministry of Health’s list of identified fatalities includes some deaths that might be attributable to Palestinian armed groups or have undetermined causes.

PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.

This fact check was originally published by PolitiFact , which is part of the Poynter Institute. See the sources for this fact check here .

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The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value

If 2023 was the year the world discovered generative AI (gen AI) , 2024 is the year organizations truly began using—and deriving business value from—this new technology. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey  on AI, 65 percent of respondents report that their organizations are regularly using gen AI, nearly double the percentage from our previous survey just ten months ago. Respondents’ expectations for gen AI’s impact remain as high as they were last year , with three-quarters predicting that gen AI will lead to significant or disruptive change in their industries in the years ahead.

About the authors

This article is a collaborative effort by Alex Singla , Alexander Sukharevsky , Lareina Yee , and Michael Chui , with Bryce Hall , representing views from QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and McKinsey Digital.

Organizations are already seeing material benefits from gen AI use, reporting both cost decreases and revenue jumps in the business units deploying the technology. The survey also provides insights into the kinds of risks presented by gen AI—most notably, inaccuracy—as well as the emerging practices of top performers to mitigate those challenges and capture value.

AI adoption surges

Interest in generative AI has also brightened the spotlight on a broader set of AI capabilities. For the past six years, AI adoption by respondents’ organizations has hovered at about 50 percent. This year, the survey finds that adoption has jumped to 72 percent (Exhibit 1). And the interest is truly global in scope. Our 2023 survey found that AI adoption did not reach 66 percent in any region; however, this year more than two-thirds of respondents in nearly every region say their organizations are using AI. 1 Organizations based in Central and South America are the exception, with 58 percent of respondents working for organizations based in Central and South America reporting AI adoption. Looking by industry, the biggest increase in adoption can be found in professional services. 2 Includes respondents working for organizations focused on human resources, legal services, management consulting, market research, R&D, tax preparation, and training.

Also, responses suggest that companies are now using AI in more parts of the business. Half of respondents say their organizations have adopted AI in two or more business functions, up from less than a third of respondents in 2023 (Exhibit 2).

Gen AI adoption is most common in the functions where it can create the most value

Most respondents now report that their organizations—and they as individuals—are using gen AI. Sixty-five percent of respondents say their organizations are regularly using gen AI in at least one business function, up from one-third last year. The average organization using gen AI is doing so in two functions, most often in marketing and sales and in product and service development—two functions in which previous research  determined that gen AI adoption could generate the most value 3 “ The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier ,” McKinsey, June 14, 2023. —as well as in IT (Exhibit 3). The biggest increase from 2023 is found in marketing and sales, where reported adoption has more than doubled. Yet across functions, only two use cases, both within marketing and sales, are reported by 15 percent or more of respondents.

Gen AI also is weaving its way into respondents’ personal lives. Compared with 2023, respondents are much more likely to be using gen AI at work and even more likely to be using gen AI both at work and in their personal lives (Exhibit 4). The survey finds upticks in gen AI use across all regions, with the largest increases in Asia–Pacific and Greater China. Respondents at the highest seniority levels, meanwhile, show larger jumps in the use of gen Al tools for work and outside of work compared with their midlevel-management peers. Looking at specific industries, respondents working in energy and materials and in professional services report the largest increase in gen AI use.

Investments in gen AI and analytical AI are beginning to create value

The latest survey also shows how different industries are budgeting for gen AI. Responses suggest that, in many industries, organizations are about equally as likely to be investing more than 5 percent of their digital budgets in gen AI as they are in nongenerative, analytical-AI solutions (Exhibit 5). Yet in most industries, larger shares of respondents report that their organizations spend more than 20 percent on analytical AI than on gen AI. Looking ahead, most respondents—67 percent—expect their organizations to invest more in AI over the next three years.

Where are those investments paying off? For the first time, our latest survey explored the value created by gen AI use by business function. The function in which the largest share of respondents report seeing cost decreases is human resources. Respondents most commonly report meaningful revenue increases (of more than 5 percent) in supply chain and inventory management (Exhibit 6). For analytical AI, respondents most often report seeing cost benefits in service operations—in line with what we found last year —as well as meaningful revenue increases from AI use in marketing and sales.

Inaccuracy: The most recognized and experienced risk of gen AI use

As businesses begin to see the benefits of gen AI, they’re also recognizing the diverse risks associated with the technology. These can range from data management risks such as data privacy, bias, or intellectual property (IP) infringement to model management risks, which tend to focus on inaccurate output or lack of explainability. A third big risk category is security and incorrect use.

Respondents to the latest survey are more likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider inaccuracy and IP infringement to be relevant to their use of gen AI, and about half continue to view cybersecurity as a risk (Exhibit 7).

Conversely, respondents are less likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider workforce and labor displacement to be relevant risks and are not increasing efforts to mitigate them.

In fact, inaccuracy— which can affect use cases across the gen AI value chain , ranging from customer journeys and summarization to coding and creative content—is the only risk that respondents are significantly more likely than last year to say their organizations are actively working to mitigate.

Some organizations have already experienced negative consequences from the use of gen AI, with 44 percent of respondents saying their organizations have experienced at least one consequence (Exhibit 8). Respondents most often report inaccuracy as a risk that has affected their organizations, followed by cybersecurity and explainability.

Our previous research has found that there are several elements of governance that can help in scaling gen AI use responsibly, yet few respondents report having these risk-related practices in place. 4 “ Implementing generative AI with speed and safety ,” McKinsey Quarterly , March 13, 2024. For example, just 18 percent say their organizations have an enterprise-wide council or board with the authority to make decisions involving responsible AI governance, and only one-third say gen AI risk awareness and risk mitigation controls are required skill sets for technical talent.

Bringing gen AI capabilities to bear

The latest survey also sought to understand how, and how quickly, organizations are deploying these new gen AI tools. We have found three archetypes for implementing gen AI solutions : takers use off-the-shelf, publicly available solutions; shapers customize those tools with proprietary data and systems; and makers develop their own foundation models from scratch. 5 “ Technology’s generational moment with generative AI: A CIO and CTO guide ,” McKinsey, July 11, 2023. Across most industries, the survey results suggest that organizations are finding off-the-shelf offerings applicable to their business needs—though many are pursuing opportunities to customize models or even develop their own (Exhibit 9). About half of reported gen AI uses within respondents’ business functions are utilizing off-the-shelf, publicly available models or tools, with little or no customization. Respondents in energy and materials, technology, and media and telecommunications are more likely to report significant customization or tuning of publicly available models or developing their own proprietary models to address specific business needs.

Respondents most often report that their organizations required one to four months from the start of a project to put gen AI into production, though the time it takes varies by business function (Exhibit 10). It also depends upon the approach for acquiring those capabilities. Not surprisingly, reported uses of highly customized or proprietary models are 1.5 times more likely than off-the-shelf, publicly available models to take five months or more to implement.

Gen AI high performers are excelling despite facing challenges

Gen AI is a new technology, and organizations are still early in the journey of pursuing its opportunities and scaling it across functions. So it’s little surprise that only a small subset of respondents (46 out of 876) report that a meaningful share of their organizations’ EBIT can be attributed to their deployment of gen AI. Still, these gen AI leaders are worth examining closely. These, after all, are the early movers, who already attribute more than 10 percent of their organizations’ EBIT to their use of gen AI. Forty-two percent of these high performers say more than 20 percent of their EBIT is attributable to their use of nongenerative, analytical AI, and they span industries and regions—though most are at organizations with less than $1 billion in annual revenue. The AI-related practices at these organizations can offer guidance to those looking to create value from gen AI adoption at their own organizations.

To start, gen AI high performers are using gen AI in more business functions—an average of three functions, while others average two. They, like other organizations, are most likely to use gen AI in marketing and sales and product or service development, but they’re much more likely than others to use gen AI solutions in risk, legal, and compliance; in strategy and corporate finance; and in supply chain and inventory management. They’re more than three times as likely as others to be using gen AI in activities ranging from processing of accounting documents and risk assessment to R&D testing and pricing and promotions. While, overall, about half of reported gen AI applications within business functions are utilizing publicly available models or tools, gen AI high performers are less likely to use those off-the-shelf options than to either implement significantly customized versions of those tools or to develop their own proprietary foundation models.

What else are these high performers doing differently? For one thing, they are paying more attention to gen-AI-related risks. Perhaps because they are further along on their journeys, they are more likely than others to say their organizations have experienced every negative consequence from gen AI we asked about, from cybersecurity and personal privacy to explainability and IP infringement. Given that, they are more likely than others to report that their organizations consider those risks, as well as regulatory compliance, environmental impacts, and political stability, to be relevant to their gen AI use, and they say they take steps to mitigate more risks than others do.

Gen AI high performers are also much more likely to say their organizations follow a set of risk-related best practices (Exhibit 11). For example, they are nearly twice as likely as others to involve the legal function and embed risk reviews early on in the development of gen AI solutions—that is, to “ shift left .” They’re also much more likely than others to employ a wide range of other best practices, from strategy-related practices to those related to scaling.

In addition to experiencing the risks of gen AI adoption, high performers have encountered other challenges that can serve as warnings to others (Exhibit 12). Seventy percent say they have experienced difficulties with data, including defining processes for data governance, developing the ability to quickly integrate data into AI models, and an insufficient amount of training data, highlighting the essential role that data play in capturing value. High performers are also more likely than others to report experiencing challenges with their operating models, such as implementing agile ways of working and effective sprint performance management.

About the research

The online survey was in the field from February 22 to March 5, 2024, and garnered responses from 1,363 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. Of those respondents, 981 said their organizations had adopted AI in at least one business function, and 878 said their organizations were regularly using gen AI in at least one function. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.

Alex Singla and Alexander Sukharevsky  are global coleaders of QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and senior partners in McKinsey’s Chicago and London offices, respectively; Lareina Yee  is a senior partner in the Bay Area office, where Michael Chui , a McKinsey Global Institute partner, is a partner; and Bryce Hall  is an associate partner in the Washington, DC, office.

They wish to thank Kaitlin Noe, Larry Kanter, Mallika Jhamb, and Shinjini Srivastava for their contributions to this work.

This article was edited by Heather Hanselman, a senior editor in McKinsey’s Atlanta office.

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Damning new report finds china lab leak most likely source of covid-19 — and blames us for pumping millions into the dangerous research.

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A damning new report found that the COVID-19 virus most likely leaked from a Chinese lab — and that the US bears responsibility for pumping tens of millions of dollars into high-risk research on extremely infectious viruses at a facility with weak safety protocols.

The analysis by Alina Chan, a Harvard and MIT molecular biologist, was published as a guest essay in the New York Times, a publication which was for a long time skeptical and dismissive of the lab leak theory.

It comes as Dr. Anthony Fauci faces a grilling before a House panel on Monday over his backing for the research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Chan — who has long advocated more study of the “lab leak theory” — said that until recently, “reflexive partisan politics have derailed the search for truth” in getting to the bottom of the pandemic’s origin.

If the theory is correct, the global pandemic — which claimed 1 million lives in the US and at lest 25 million around the world — is “the most costly accident in the history of science,” Chan, the co-author of “Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19,” wrote.

Her findings paint an alarming picture of how the virus was sourced in China, supercharged for maximum infectiousness with US government support, and ultimately allowed to escape under inadequate containment conditions.

Where did COVID originate?

Scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology spent more than a decade looking for SARS-like viruses, led by Dr. Shi Zhengli, to learn more about how they infect humans.

Their research determined that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the pandemic, was known to exist in bats located around 1,000 miles away from Wuhan.

Shi’s team made multiple trips to southwestern China and Laos to collect samples of the virus, during which samples traveled through “hundreds” of large cities on their way back to the Wuhan lab.

Despite the virus being highly contagious, even between species, no trace of infection was discovered anywhere along the 1,000-mile route, Chan wrote.

Her research also shot down a popular theory early in the pandemic that the virus was unleashed on the world via the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan — where exotic game was being sold for human consumption.

This theory, Chan says, “is not supported by strong evidence,” noting it’s likely the outbreak at the market likely occurred after the virus was already passing between humans.

What does evidence say about if COVID occurred naturally?

Wuhan researchers collected samples from both infected humans and animals in an effort to learn more about the highly infectious nature of viruses like SARS-CoV-2.

Much of this work was done in partnership with EcoHealth Alliance, a US-based scientific organization researching infectious diseases, which the federal government has funded with more than $80 million since 2002, Chan wrote.

The Wuhan lab’s “risky” research involved “genetically reconstructed and recombined” virus samples collected across several different types of animals, resulting in never-before-seen infections that were repeatedly forced to mutate in order to survive in each new host species.

The researchers published an extensive database in 2019 containing more than 22,000 collected samples.

However, Chan notes, access to the data was “shut off” in the fall of that year, and was not shared with American research partners even after the pandemic began.

In 2021, a leaked grant proposal for a collaboration between EcoHealth, the Wuhan Institute, and US-based coronavirus researcher Ralph Baric to create new viruses “strikingly similar” to SARS-CoV-2 was published by The Intercept .

What does new evidence say about the theory COVID was released from a lab?

The idea that the virus which led to the pandemic originated from a lab in China is far from new.

But it’s only recently begun to be discussed in a serious way after years of mainstream media outlets like The New York Times, CNN, MSNBC and others downplaying it as nothing more than a “racist” conspiracy theory.

According to Chan, the Wuhan lab where the dangerous research was being conducted was woefully inadequate to contain an airborne virus as infectious as SARS-CoV-2.

US virologists dealing with highly infectious diseases like those in the SARS family would generally use Biosafety Level 3 containment, which requires protocols like respirators and proper exhaust systems to protect against airborne pathogens , to ensure the virus can’t infect lab researchers.

However, the Wuhan lab did its work under the lower Biosafety Level 2 conditions, which focus on merely protecting researchers against skin contact with viruses and bacteria, according to Chan, “could not prevent a highly infectious virus like SARS-CoV-2 from escaping.”

Scientists at the Wuhan lab reportedly became sick with COVID-like symptoms as early as the fall of 2019, according to information leaked to the Wall Street Journal and later confirmed by US government sources.

However, Chan wrote, the scientists denied that they were ever sick.

The first international report of a “mysterious viral pneumonia” in Wuhan did not emerge until Dec. 31, 2019.

US funded ‘unprecedented collection’ of virsuses

In Chan’s sharply worded conclusion, she urged investigators to subpoena exchanges between Wuhan scientists and international partners, especially during the key pre-pandemic period of 2018-2019.

She also singled out Fauci, saying he “should cooperate with the investigation to help identify and close the loopholes that allowed such dangerous work to occur.”

The US government itself wasn’t spared from her criticism for its role in the pandemic.

“Whether the pandemic started on a lab bench or in a market stall, it is undeniable that US federal funding helped to build an unprecedented collection of SARS-like viruses at the Wuhan institute, as well as contributing to research that enhanced them,” Chan wrote.

“The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of research with the potential to cause pandemics.”

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Howard university rescinds sean ‘diddy’ combs honorary degree, gives back funds and terminates any association, white house and ‘morning joe’ blast wall street journal report that joe biden “shows signs of slipping”.

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The Wall Street Journal has come under extensive criticism from the White House for a report on Joe Biden ‘s mental acuity, with spokespersons blasting the story for featuring just one on-the-record Republican source, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to claim that the president is slipping.

On Wednesday morning, Morning Joe added to the chorus, with Joe Scarborough calling it a “Trump hit piece.”

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The Journal also reported that more recently, in a meeting on Ukraine funding in January, Biden “spoke so softly at times that some participants struggled to hear him,” and read from notes “to make obvious points,  paused for extended periods and sometimes closed his eyes for so long that some in the room wondered whether he had tuned out.”

Scarborough challenged the account, noting other reporting that McCarthy had told allies that he had found Biden “to be mentally sharp in meetings.” Scarborough noted that after the May in-person meeting at the White House, McCarthy was publicly praiseworthy of the progress made, calling it “better than any other time we’ve had discussions.”

“I have repeatedly stated on air that I am an avid reader and cheerleader for the WSJ,” Scarborough wrote on X/Twitter. “That is what makes this false, biased story so disappointing. It is underminded immediately by the massive weight on on-the-record contradictions.”

The White House also pushed back against the piece shortly after it was posted on Wednesday evening. Ben LaBolt, the White House communications director, wrote on X/Twitter that the piece was an “utter editorial fail.”

LaBolt wrote, “What a surprise – Republicans employing their election year messaging strategy that contradicts their own prior words about @POTUS . Gambling in Casablanca!”

But Pelosi was among the lawmakers who complained that they spent time with the Journal to offer their accounts, but instead the publication “ignored testimony by Democrats, focused on attacks by Republicans and printed a hit piece.”

The Journal piece noted that it was based on interviews with more than 45 people over several months. “The interviews were with Republicans and Democrats who either participated in meetings with Biden or were briefed on them contemporaneously, including administration officials and other Democrats who found no fault in the president’s handling of the meetings,” according to the story. “Most of those who said Biden performed poorly were Republicans, but some Democrats said that he showed his age in several of the exchanges.”

A spokesperson for the publication said, “The Journal stands by its reporting.”

Polls have shown that voters have significant concerns about Biden’s age, and to a lesser extent, of Trump’s. At 81, Biden is the oldest president, even though Trump, 77, is not too much younger.

Biden arrived in Paris today, part of a trip that includes as speech at Normandy on Thursday to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day.

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THE WIDER IMAGE

Flood-battered farmers in southern brazil wade through lost harvests.

Joao Engelmann, a 54-year-old farmer, travels by boat during floods to feed his cows in Eldorado do Sul, Brazil, May 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli

By Amanda Perobelli

Filed May 29, 2024, 1 p.m. GMT

Photography by Amanda Perobelli Reporting by Amanda Perobelli and Lisandra Paraguassu

Filed: May 29, 2024, 10 a.m. GMT

After three days of ferocious rains, Edite de Almeida and her husband fled their flooded home in early May and let loose their humble dairy herd on higher ground. Nearby, the waters rose above her head and within a day they were lapping at the roofs of houses.

Record-breaking floods in southern Brazil, the result of weather patterns intensified by climate change, have only started to recede after displacing half a million people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and killing more than 160.

The full extent of the losses is still coming into focus, especially in rural areas where farmers like Almeida and her family produce much of Brazil’s rice, wheat and dairy.

Of her 60 egg-laying hens, just eight survived. Their cows have nowhere to graze in the flooded landscape.

“I’m not mourning. I’m grateful, because there are many who lost far more than us,” Almeida said. “I’m grateful we survived and I mourn for those who lost family.”

“Now the priority is to save the animals. The calves are still nursing,” she added.

Her husband Joao Engelmann has made a daily trek by foot, tractor and boat to bring the herd whatever food he can find. He returns sopping wet each night after wading with friends through their farms, helping to haul away perished livestock and tend to the survivors.

One neighbor found a dead hog in his bedroom. All around, fields of rice and vegetables have been washed away.

Theirs were among the nearly 6,500 family farms flooded by this month’s torrential downpours, according to analysis of satellite data by consultancy Terra Analytics.

The floods have rattled agricultural markets as they disrupted soy harvesting, washed out silos, snared farm exports and killed over 400,000 chickens. The government is lining up rice imports to blunt the impact on national inflation figures.

The washed out farms and roads around the state capital Porto Alegre have contributed to food and water shortages in the area, adding to the crisis disrupting the lives of more than 2 million people.

Parts of the state saw more than 700 mm (28 inches) of rain so far this month, national weather service INMET reported – more than London’s average rainfall in a year.

As the floodwaters began to retreat in recent weeks, Almeida got a first glimpse of her ravaged home, with the walls stained, appliances wrecked and belongings coated in mud.

“I can’t think about the future. That belongs to God,” Almeida said. “I don’t expect to have again what I had before. We’re starting over,” she added, grimacing through tears.

Starting over

Almeida and Engelmann know what it means to start from nothing.

They met in the 1980s at one of the first encampments of the Landless Workers’ Movement in central Rio Grande do Sul, where the movement - the largest of its kind in Latin America - got its start, occupying rural properties to demand land reform.

They married and had their first children in that camp, called Cruz Alta, before the state government gave them permission to settle in Eldorado do Sul, about 70 km (45 miles) west of the state capital Porto Alegre.

They are among 30 families in the settlement who produced enough rice, vegetables, milk, eggs and pork to make a living, build and furnish homes and send their children to university.

The floods have left all of that hanging in the balance.

Almeida, Engelmann and their daughter are sleeping on a truck bed in a neighbor’s warehouse, improvising a domestic routine as they put their lives back together.

“I’ve been through all this in the encampments - the challenges to cook, to sleep. I learned to live that way. But I didn’t think I’d be doing it again,” Almeida said.

One of her closest friends, Inacio Hoffmann, 60, was just four months into retirement when the floods tore through his farm, killing 13 of 22 dairy cows.

“It’s so bleak to haul off and bury these creatures that we took care of every day,” said Hoffmann. He is weighing whether to leave it all behind and try a new life elsewhere.

Almeida said her family is determined to stick it out.

“We’ve come from nothing. We’ve returned to nothing. Now we start again.”

The Wider Image

Photography: Amanda Perobelli

Reporting: Amanda Perobelli and Lisandra Paraguassu in Eldorado do Sul

Photo editing and design: Maye-E Wong and Eve Watling

Additional reporting: Ricardo Brito in Brasilia

Text editing: Brad Haynes and Alistair Bell

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Ticketmaster Confirms Data Breach. Here’s What to Know.

The hacking group ShinyHunters has claimed responsibility for stealing the user information of more than 500 million Ticketmaster customers.

By Sopan Deb

Ticketmaster confirmed in a federal filing on Friday that it was investigating a data breach after a hacking group known as ShinyHunters claimed responsibility for stealing the information of more than 500 million Ticketmaster customers.

In the filing , with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Ticketmaster’s parent company, Live Nation Entertainment, said it had “identified unauthorized activity within a third-party cloud database environment.”

Who is behind the breach?

ShinyHunters, a hacker group believed to have been formed around 2020, is believed to have been behind the breach.

Brett Callow, a threat analyst with the cybersecurity company Emsisoft, said it was a “credible threat actor,” though not much more was known about the group.

Its chief aim appears to be to obtain personal records and sell them.

Its past victims have included Microsoft and AT&T, among dozens of other companies in the United States and elsewhere, according to federal prosecutors.

In March, AT&T confirmed a breach in a news release and said it had affected roughly 70 million past or present customers.

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