conclusion for research process

How to Write a Conclusion for Research Papers (with Examples)

The conclusion of a research paper is a crucial section that plays a significant role in the overall impact and effectiveness of your research paper. However, this is also the section that typically receives less attention compared to the introduction and the body of the paper. The conclusion serves to provide a concise summary of the key findings, their significance, their implications, and a sense of closure to the study. Discussing how can the findings be applied in real-world scenarios or inform policy, practice, or decision-making is especially valuable to practitioners and policymakers. The research paper conclusion also provides researchers with clear insights and valuable information for their own work, which they can then build on and contribute to the advancement of knowledge in the field.

The research paper conclusion should explain the significance of your findings within the broader context of your field. It restates how your results contribute to the existing body of knowledge and whether they confirm or challenge existing theories or hypotheses. Also, by identifying unanswered questions or areas requiring further investigation, your awareness of the broader research landscape can be demonstrated.

Remember to tailor the research paper conclusion to the specific needs and interests of your intended audience, which may include researchers, practitioners, policymakers, or a combination of these.

Table of Contents

What is a conclusion in a research paper, summarizing conclusion, editorial conclusion, externalizing conclusion, importance of a good research paper conclusion, how to write a conclusion for your research paper, research paper conclusion examples, frequently asked questions.

A conclusion in a research paper is the final section where you summarize and wrap up your research, presenting the key findings and insights derived from your study. The research paper conclusion is not the place to introduce new information or data that was not discussed in the main body of the paper. When working on how to conclude a research paper, remember to stick to summarizing and interpreting existing content. The research paper conclusion serves the following purposes: 1

• Warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem.
• Recommend specific course(s) of action.
• Restate key ideas to drive home the ultimate point of your research paper.
• Provide a “take-home” message that you want the readers to remember about your study.

Types of conclusions for research papers

In research papers, the conclusion provides closure to the reader. The type of research paper conclusion you choose depends on the nature of your study, your goals, and your target audience. I provide you with three common types of conclusions:

A summarizing conclusion is the most common type of conclusion in research papers. It involves summarizing the main points, reiterating the research question, and restating the significance of the findings. This common type of research paper conclusion is used across different disciplines.

An editorial conclusion is less common but can be used in research papers that are focused on proposing or advocating for a particular viewpoint or policy. It involves presenting a strong editorial or opinion based on the research findings and offering recommendations or calls to action.

An externalizing conclusion is a type of conclusion that extends the research beyond the scope of the paper by suggesting potential future research directions or discussing the broader implications of the findings. This type of conclusion is often used in more theoretical or exploratory research papers.

The conclusion in a research paper serves several important purposes:

• Offers Implications and Recommendations : Your research paper conclusion is an excellent place to discuss the broader implications of your research and suggest potential areas for further study. It’s also an opportunity to offer practical recommendations based on your findings.
• Provides Closure : A good research paper conclusion provides a sense of closure to your paper. It should leave the reader with a feeling that they have reached the end of a well-structured and thought-provoking research project.
• Leaves a Lasting Impression : Writing a well-crafted research paper conclusion leaves a lasting impression on your readers. It’s your final opportunity to leave them with a new idea, a call to action, or a memorable quote.

Writing a strong conclusion for your research paper is essential to leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here’s a step-by-step process to help you create and know what to put in the conclusion of a research paper: 2

• Research Statement : Begin your research paper conclusion by restating your research statement. This reminds the reader of the main point you’ve been trying to prove throughout your paper. Keep it concise and clear.
• Key Points : Summarize the main arguments and key points you’ve made in your paper. Avoid introducing new information in the research paper conclusion. Instead, provide a concise overview of what you’ve discussed in the body of your paper.
• Address the Research Questions : If your research paper is based on specific research questions or hypotheses, briefly address whether you’ve answered them or achieved your research goals. Discuss the significance of your findings in this context.
• Significance : Highlight the importance of your research and its relevance in the broader context. Explain why your findings matter and how they contribute to the existing knowledge in your field.
• Implications : Explore the practical or theoretical implications of your research. How might your findings impact future research, policy, or real-world applications? Consider the “so what?” question.
• Future Research : Offer suggestions for future research in your area. What questions or aspects remain unanswered or warrant further investigation? This shows that your work opens the door for future exploration.
• Closing Thought : Conclude your research paper conclusion with a thought-provoking or memorable statement. This can leave a lasting impression on your readers and wrap up your paper effectively. Avoid introducing new information or arguments here.
• Proofread and Revise : Carefully proofread your conclusion for grammar, spelling, and clarity. Ensure that your ideas flow smoothly and that your conclusion is coherent and well-structured.

Remember that a well-crafted research paper conclusion is a reflection of the strength of your research and your ability to communicate its significance effectively. It should leave a lasting impression on your readers and tie together all the threads of your paper. Now you know how to start the conclusion of a research paper and what elements to include to make it impactful, let’s look at a research paper conclusion sample.

The research paper conclusion is a crucial part of your paper as it provides the final opportunity to leave a strong impression on your readers. In the research paper conclusion, summarize the main points of your research paper by restating your research statement, highlighting the most important findings, addressing the research questions or objectives, explaining the broader context of the study, discussing the significance of your findings, providing recommendations if applicable, and emphasizing the takeaway message. The main purpose of the conclusion is to remind the reader of the main point or argument of your paper and to provide a clear and concise summary of the key findings and their implications. All these elements should feature on your list of what to put in the conclusion of a research paper to create a strong final statement for your work.

A strong conclusion is a critical component of a research paper, as it provides an opportunity to wrap up your arguments, reiterate your main points, and leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here are the key elements of a strong research paper conclusion: 1. Conciseness : A research paper conclusion should be concise and to the point. It should not introduce new information or ideas that were not discussed in the body of the paper. 2. Summarization : The research paper conclusion should be comprehensive enough to give the reader a clear understanding of the research’s main contributions. 3 . Relevance : Ensure that the information included in the research paper conclusion is directly relevant to the research paper’s main topic and objectives; avoid unnecessary details. 4 . Connection to the Introduction : A well-structured research paper conclusion often revisits the key points made in the introduction and shows how the research has addressed the initial questions or objectives. 5. Emphasis : Highlight the significance and implications of your research. Why is your study important? What are the broader implications or applications of your findings? 6 . Call to Action : Include a call to action or a recommendation for future research or action based on your findings.

The length of a research paper conclusion can vary depending on several factors, including the overall length of the paper, the complexity of the research, and the specific journal requirements. While there is no strict rule for the length of a conclusion, but it’s generally advisable to keep it relatively short. A typical research paper conclusion might be around 5-10% of the paper’s total length. For example, if your paper is 10 pages long, the conclusion might be roughly half a page to one page in length.

In general, you do not need to include citations in the research paper conclusion. Citations are typically reserved for the body of the paper to support your arguments and provide evidence for your claims. However, there may be some exceptions to this rule: 1. If you are drawing a direct quote or paraphrasing a specific source in your research paper conclusion, you should include a citation to give proper credit to the original author. 2. If your conclusion refers to or discusses specific research, data, or sources that are crucial to the overall argument, citations can be included to reinforce your conclusion’s validity.

The conclusion of a research paper serves several important purposes: 1. Summarize the Key Points 2. Reinforce the Main Argument 3. Provide Closure 4. Offer Insights or Implications 5. Engage the Reader. 6. Reflect on Limitations

Remember that the primary purpose of the research paper conclusion is to leave a lasting impression on the reader, reinforcing the key points and providing closure to your research. It’s often the last part of the paper that the reader will see, so it should be strong and well-crafted.

• Makar, G., Foltz, C., Lendner, M., & Vaccaro, A. R. (2018). How to write effective discussion and conclusion sections. Clinical spine surgery, 31(8), 345-346.
• Bunton, D. (2005). The structure of PhD conclusion chapters.  Journal of English for academic purposes ,  4 (3), 207-224.

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The conclusion is intended to help the reader understand why your research should matter to them after they have finished reading the paper. A conclusion is not merely a summary of the main topics covered or a re-statement of your research problem, but a synthesis of key points and, if applicable, where you recommend new areas for future research. For most college-level research papers, one or two well-developed paragraphs is sufficient for a conclusion, although in some cases, more paragraphs may be required in summarizing key findings and their significance.

Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University.

Importance of a Good Conclusion

A well-written conclusion provides you with important opportunities to demonstrate to the reader your understanding of the research problem. These include:

• Presenting the last word on the issues you raised in your paper . Just as the introduction gives a first impression to your reader, the conclusion offers a chance to leave a lasting impression. Do this, for example, by highlighting key findings in your analysis that advance new understanding about the research problem, that are unusual or unexpected, or that have important implications applied to practice.
• Summarizing your thoughts and conveying the larger significance of your study . The conclusion is an opportunity to succinctly re-emphasize  the "So What?" question by placing the study within the context of how your research advances past research about the topic.
• Identifying how a gap in the literature has been addressed . The conclusion can be where you describe how a previously identified gap in the literature [described in your literature review section] has been filled by your research.
• Demonstrating the importance of your ideas . Don't be shy. The conclusion offers you the opportunity to elaborate on the impact and significance of your findings. This is particularly important if your study approached examining the research problem from an unusual or innovative perspective.
• Introducing possible new or expanded ways of thinking about the research problem . This does not refer to introducing new information [which should be avoided], but to offer new insight and creative approaches for framing or contextualizing the research problem based on the results of your study.

Bunton, David. “The Structure of PhD Conclusion Chapters.” Journal of English for Academic Purposes 4 (July 2005): 207–224; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Structure and Writing Style

I.  General Rules

The function of your paper's conclusion is to restate the main argument . It reminds the reader of the strengths of your main argument(s) and reiterates the most important evidence supporting those argument(s). Do this by stating clearly the context, background, and necessity of pursuing the research problem you investigated in relation to an issue, controversy, or a gap found in the literature. Make sure, however, that your conclusion is not simply a repetitive summary of the findings. This reduces the impact of the argument(s) you have developed in your essay.

When writing the conclusion to your paper, follow these general rules:

• Present your conclusions in clear, simple language. Re-state the purpose of your study, then describe how your findings differ or support those of other studies and why [i.e., what were the unique or new contributions your study made to the overall research about your topic?].
• Do not simply reiterate your findings or the discussion of your results. Provide a synthesis of arguments presented in the paper to show how these converge to address the research problem and the overall objectives of your study.
• Indicate opportunities for future research if you haven't already done so in the discussion section of your paper. Highlighting the need for further research provides the reader with evidence that you have an in-depth awareness of the research problem and that further investigations should take place.

Consider the following points to help ensure your conclusion is presented well:

• If the argument or purpose of your paper is complex, you may need to summarize the argument for your reader.
• If, prior to your conclusion, you have not yet explained the significance of your findings or if you are proceeding inductively, use the end of your paper to describe your main points and explain their significance.
• Move from a detailed to a general level of consideration that returns the topic to the context provided by the introduction or within a new context that emerges from the data. 

The conclusion also provides a place for you to persuasively and succinctly restate the research problem, given that the reader has now been presented with all the information about the topic . Depending on the discipline you are writing in, the concluding paragraph may contain your reflections on the evidence presented. However, the nature of being introspective about the research you have conducted will depend on the topic and whether your professor wants you to express your observations in this way.

NOTE : If asked to think introspectively about the topics, do not delve into idle speculation. Being introspective means looking within yourself as an author to try and understand an issue more deeply, not to guess at possible outcomes or make up scenarios not supported by the evidence.

II.  Developing a Compelling Conclusion

Although an effective conclusion needs to be clear and succinct, it does not need to be written passively or lack a compelling narrative. Strategies to help you move beyond merely summarizing the key points of your research paper may include any of the following strategies:

• If your essay deals with a critical, contemporary problem, warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem proactively.
• Recommend a specific course or courses of action that, if adopted, could address a specific problem in practice or in the development of new knowledge.
• Cite a relevant quotation or expert opinion already noted in your paper in order to lend authority and support to the conclusion(s) you have reached [a good place to look is research from your literature review].
• Explain the consequences of your research in a way that elicits action or demonstrates urgency in seeking change.
• Restate a key statistic, fact, or visual image to emphasize the most important finding of your paper.
• If your discipline encourages personal reflection, illustrate your concluding point by drawing from your own life experiences.
• Return to an anecdote, an example, or a quotation that you presented in your introduction, but add further insight derived from the findings of your study; use your interpretation of results to recast it in new or important ways.
• Provide a "take-home" message in the form of a succinct, declarative statement that you want the reader to remember about your study.

III. Problems to Avoid

Failure to be concise Your conclusion section should be concise and to the point. Conclusions that are too lengthy often have unnecessary information in them. The conclusion is not the place for details about your methodology or results. Although you should give a summary of what was learned from your research, this summary should be relatively brief, since the emphasis in the conclusion is on the implications, evaluations, insights, and other forms of analysis that you make. Strategies for writing concisely can be found here .

Failure to comment on larger, more significant issues In the introduction, your task was to move from the general [the field of study] to the specific [the research problem]. However, in the conclusion, your task is to move from a specific discussion [your research problem] back to a general discussion [i.e., how your research contributes new understanding or fills an important gap in the literature]. In short, the conclusion is where you should place your research within a larger context [visualize your paper as an hourglass--start with a broad introduction and review of the literature, move to the specific analysis and discussion, conclude with a broad summary of the study's implications and significance].

Failure to reveal problems and negative results Negative aspects of the research process should never be ignored. These are problems, deficiencies, or challenges encountered during your study should be summarized as a way of qualifying your overall conclusions. If you encountered negative or unintended results [i.e., findings that are validated outside the research context in which they were generated], you must report them in the results section and discuss their implications in the discussion section of your paper. In the conclusion, use your summary of the negative results as an opportunity to explain their possible significance and/or how they may form the basis for future research.

Failure to provide a clear summary of what was learned In order to be able to discuss how your research fits within your field of study [and possibly the world at large], you need to summarize briefly and succinctly how it contributes to new knowledge or a new understanding about the research problem. This element of your conclusion may be only a few sentences long.

Failure to match the objectives of your research Often research objectives in the social sciences change while the research is being carried out. This is not a problem unless you forget to go back and refine the original objectives in your introduction. As these changes emerge they must be documented so that they accurately reflect what you were trying to accomplish in your research [not what you thought you might accomplish when you began].

Resist the urge to apologize If you've immersed yourself in studying the research problem, you presumably should know a good deal about it [perhaps even more than your professor!]. Nevertheless, by the time you have finished writing, you may be having some doubts about what you have produced. Repress those doubts! Don't undermine your authority by saying something like, "This is just one approach to examining this problem; there may be other, much better approaches that...." The overall tone of your conclusion should convey confidence to the reader.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Concluding Paragraphs. College Writing Center at Meramec. St. Louis Community College; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Freedman, Leora  and Jerry Plotnick. Introductions and Conclusions. The Lab Report. University College Writing Centre. University of Toronto; Leibensperger, Summer. Draft Your Conclusion. Academic Center, the University of Houston-Victoria, 2003; Make Your Last Words Count. The Writer’s Handbook. Writing Center. University of Wisconsin Madison; Miquel, Fuster-Marquez and Carmen Gregori-Signes. “Chapter Six: ‘Last but Not Least:’ Writing the Conclusion of Your Paper.” In Writing an Applied Linguistics Thesis or Dissertation: A Guide to Presenting Empirical Research . John Bitchener, editor. (Basingstoke,UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), pp. 93-105; Tips for Writing a Good Conclusion. Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Writing Conclusions. Writing Tutorial Services, Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning. Indiana University; Writing: Considering Structure and Organization. Institute for Writing Rhetoric. Dartmouth College.

Writing Tip

Don't Belabor the Obvious!

Avoid phrases like "in conclusion...," "in summary...," or "in closing...." These phrases can be useful, even welcome, in oral presentations. But readers can see by the tell-tale section heading and number of pages remaining to read, when an essay is about to end. You'll irritate your readers if you belabor the obvious.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Another Writing Tip

New Insight, Not New Information!

Don't surprise the reader with new information in your conclusion that was never referenced anywhere else in the paper and, as such, the conclusion rarely has citations to sources. If you have new information to present, add it to the discussion or other appropriate section of the paper. Note that, although no actual new information is introduced, the conclusion, along with the discussion section, is where you offer your most "original" contributions in the paper; the conclusion is where you describe the value of your research, demonstrate that you understand the material that you’ve presented, and locate your findings within the larger context of scholarship on the topic, including describing how your research contributes new insights or valuable insight to that scholarship.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina.

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• Online Guide to Writing

Planning and Writing a Research Paper

Draw Conclusions

As a writer, you are presenting your viewpoint, opinions, evidence, etc. for others to review, so you must take on this task with maturity, courage and thoughtfulness.  Remember, you are adding to the discourse community with every research paper that you write.  This is a privilege and an opportunity to share your point of view with the world at large in an academic setting.

Because research generates further research, the conclusions you draw from your research are important. As a researcher, you depend on the integrity of the research that precedes your own efforts, and researchers depend on each other to draw valid conclusions. 

To test the validity of your conclusions, you will have to review both the content of your paper and the way in which you arrived at the content. You may ask yourself questions, such as the ones presented below, to detect any weak areas in your paper, so you can then make those areas stronger.  Notice that some of the questions relate to your process, others to your sources, and others to how you arrived at your conclusions.

Checklist for Evaluating Your Conclusions

Key takeaways.

• Because research generates further research, the conclusions you draw from your research are important.
• To test the validity of your conclusions, you will have to review both the content of your paper and the way in which you arrived at the content.

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Table of Contents: Online Guide to Writing

Chapter 1: College Writing

How Does College Writing Differ from Workplace Writing?

What Is College Writing?

Why So Much Emphasis on Writing?

Chapter 2: The Writing Process

Doing Exploratory Research

Getting from Notes to Your Draft

Introduction

Prewriting - Techniques to Get Started - Mining Your Intuition

Prewriting: Targeting Your Audience

Prewriting: Techniques to Get Started

Prewriting: Understanding Your Assignment

Rewriting: Being Your Own Critic

Rewriting: Creating a Revision Strategy

Rewriting: Getting Feedback

Rewriting: The Final Draft

Techniques to Get Started - Outlining

Techniques to Get Started - Using Systematic Techniques

Thesis Statement and Controlling Idea

Writing: Getting from Notes to Your Draft - Freewriting

Writing: Getting from Notes to Your Draft - Summarizing Your Ideas

Writing: Outlining What You Will Write

Chapter 3: Thinking Strategies

A Word About Style, Voice, and Tone

A Word About Style, Voice, and Tone: Style Through Vocabulary and Diction

Critical Strategies and Writing

Critical Strategies and Writing: Analysis

Critical Strategies and Writing: Evaluation

Critical Strategies and Writing: Persuasion

Critical Strategies and Writing: Synthesis

Developing a Paper Using Strategies

Kinds of Assignments You Will Write

Patterns for Presenting Information

Patterns for Presenting Information: Critiques

Patterns for Presenting Information: Discussing Raw Data

Patterns for Presenting Information: General-to-Specific Pattern

Patterns for Presenting Information: Problem-Cause-Solution Pattern

Patterns for Presenting Information: Specific-to-General Pattern

Patterns for Presenting Information: Summaries and Abstracts

Supporting with Research and Examples

Writing Essay Examinations

Writing Essay Examinations: Make Your Answer Relevant and Complete

Writing Essay Examinations: Organize Thinking Before Writing

Writing Essay Examinations: Read and Understand the Question

Chapter 4: The Research Process

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Ask a Research Question

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Cite Sources

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Collect Evidence

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Decide Your Point of View, or Role, for Your Research

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Draw Conclusions

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Find a Topic and Get an Overview

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Manage Your Resources

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Outline

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Survey the Literature

Planning and Writing a Research Paper: Work Your Sources into Your Research Writing

Research Resources: Where Are Research Resources Found? - Human Resources

Research Resources: What Are Research Resources?

Research Resources: Where Are Research Resources Found?

Research Resources: Where Are Research Resources Found? - Electronic Resources

Research Resources: Where Are Research Resources Found? - Print Resources

Structuring the Research Paper: Formal Research Structure

Structuring the Research Paper: Informal Research Structure

The Nature of Research

The Research Assignment: How Should Research Sources Be Evaluated?

The Research Assignment: When Is Research Needed?

The Research Assignment: Why Perform Research?

Chapter 5: Academic Integrity

Academic Integrity

Giving Credit to Sources

Giving Credit to Sources: Copyright Laws

Giving Credit to Sources: Documentation

Giving Credit to Sources: Style Guides

Integrating Sources

Practicing Academic Integrity

Practicing Academic Integrity: Keeping Accurate Records

Practicing Academic Integrity: Managing Source Material

Practicing Academic Integrity: Managing Source Material - Paraphrasing Your Source

Practicing Academic Integrity: Managing Source Material - Quoting Your Source

Practicing Academic Integrity: Managing Source Material - Summarizing Your Sources

Types of Documentation

Types of Documentation: Bibliographies and Source Lists

Types of Documentation: Citing World Wide Web Sources

Types of Documentation: In-Text or Parenthetical Citations

Types of Documentation: In-Text or Parenthetical Citations - APA Style

Types of Documentation: In-Text or Parenthetical Citations - CSE/CBE Style

Types of Documentation: In-Text or Parenthetical Citations - Chicago Style

Types of Documentation: In-Text or Parenthetical Citations - MLA Style

Types of Documentation: Note Citations

Chapter 6: Using Library Resources

Finding Library Resources

Chapter 7: Assessing Your Writing

How Is Writing Graded?

How Is Writing Graded?: A General Assessment Tool

The Draft Stage

The Draft Stage: The First Draft

The Draft Stage: The Revision Process and the Final Draft

The Draft Stage: Using Feedback

The Research Stage

Using Assessment to Improve Your Writing

Chapter 8: Other Frequently Assigned Papers

Reviews and Reaction Papers: Article and Book Reviews

Reviews and Reaction Papers: Reaction Papers

Writing Arguments

Writing Arguments: Adapting the Argument Structure

Writing Arguments: Purposes of Argument

Writing Arguments: References to Consult for Writing Arguments

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - Anticipate Active Opposition

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - Determine Your Organization

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - Develop Your Argument

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - Introduce Your Argument

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - State Your Thesis or Proposition

Writing Arguments: Steps to Writing an Argument - Write Your Conclusion

Writing Arguments: Types of Argument

Appendix A: Books to Help Improve Your Writing

Dictionaries

General Style Manuals

Researching on the Internet

Special Style Manuals

Writing Handbooks

Appendix B: Collaborative Writing and Peer Reviewing

Collaborative Writing: Assignments to Accompany the Group Project

Collaborative Writing: Informal Progress Report

Collaborative Writing: Issues to Resolve

Collaborative Writing: Methodology

Collaborative Writing: Peer Evaluation

Collaborative Writing: Tasks of Collaborative Writing Group Members

Collaborative Writing: Writing Plan

General Introduction

Peer Reviewing

Appendix C: Developing an Improvement Plan

Working with Your Instructor’s Comments and Grades

Appendix D: Writing Plan and Project Schedule

Devising a Writing Project Plan and Schedule

Reviewing Your Plan with Others

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Conclusions

What this handout is about.

This handout will explain the functions of conclusions, offer strategies for writing effective ones, help you evaluate conclusions you’ve drafted, and suggest approaches to avoid.

About conclusions

Introductions and conclusions can be difficult to write, but they’re worth investing time in. They can have a significant influence on a reader’s experience of your paper.

Just as your introduction acts as a bridge that transports your readers from their own lives into the “place” of your analysis, your conclusion can provide a bridge to help your readers make the transition back to their daily lives. Such a conclusion will help them see why all your analysis and information should matter to them after they put the paper down.

Your conclusion is your chance to have the last word on the subject. The conclusion allows you to have the final say on the issues you have raised in your paper, to synthesize your thoughts, to demonstrate the importance of your ideas, and to propel your reader to a new view of the subject. It is also your opportunity to make a good final impression and to end on a positive note.

Your conclusion can go beyond the confines of the assignment. The conclusion pushes beyond the boundaries of the prompt and allows you to consider broader issues, make new connections, and elaborate on the significance of your findings.

Your conclusion should make your readers glad they read your paper. Your conclusion gives your reader something to take away that will help them see things differently or appreciate your topic in personally relevant ways. It can suggest broader implications that will not only interest your reader, but also enrich your reader’s life in some way. It is your gift to the reader.

Strategies for writing an effective conclusion

One or more of the following strategies may help you write an effective conclusion:

• Play the “So What” Game. If you’re stuck and feel like your conclusion isn’t saying anything new or interesting, ask a friend to read it with you. Whenever you make a statement from your conclusion, ask the friend to say, “So what?” or “Why should anybody care?” Then ponder that question and answer it. Here’s how it might go: You: Basically, I’m just saying that education was important to Douglass. Friend: So what? You: Well, it was important because it was a key to him feeling like a free and equal citizen. Friend: Why should anybody care? You: That’s important because plantation owners tried to keep slaves from being educated so that they could maintain control. When Douglass obtained an education, he undermined that control personally. You can also use this strategy on your own, asking yourself “So What?” as you develop your ideas or your draft.
• Return to the theme or themes in the introduction. This strategy brings the reader full circle. For example, if you begin by describing a scenario, you can end with the same scenario as proof that your essay is helpful in creating a new understanding. You may also refer to the introductory paragraph by using key words or parallel concepts and images that you also used in the introduction.
• Synthesize, don’t summarize. Include a brief summary of the paper’s main points, but don’t simply repeat things that were in your paper. Instead, show your reader how the points you made and the support and examples you used fit together. Pull it all together.
• Include a provocative insight or quotation from the research or reading you did for your paper.
• Propose a course of action, a solution to an issue, or questions for further study. This can redirect your reader’s thought process and help them to apply your info and ideas to their own life or to see the broader implications.
• Point to broader implications. For example, if your paper examines the Greensboro sit-ins or another event in the Civil Rights Movement, you could point out its impact on the Civil Rights Movement as a whole. A paper about the style of writer Virginia Woolf could point to her influence on other writers or on later feminists.

Strategies to avoid

• Beginning with an unnecessary, overused phrase such as “in conclusion,” “in summary,” or “in closing.” Although these phrases can work in speeches, they come across as wooden and trite in writing.
• Stating the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion.
• Introducing a new idea or subtopic in your conclusion.
• Ending with a rephrased thesis statement without any substantive changes.
• Making sentimental, emotional appeals that are out of character with the rest of an analytical paper.
• Including evidence (quotations, statistics, etc.) that should be in the body of the paper.

Four kinds of ineffective conclusions

• The “That’s My Story and I’m Sticking to It” Conclusion. This conclusion just restates the thesis and is usually painfully short. It does not push the ideas forward. People write this kind of conclusion when they can’t think of anything else to say. Example: In conclusion, Frederick Douglass was, as we have seen, a pioneer in American education, proving that education was a major force for social change with regard to slavery.
• The “Sherlock Holmes” Conclusion. Sometimes writers will state the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion. You might be tempted to use this strategy if you don’t want to give everything away too early in your paper. You may think it would be more dramatic to keep the reader in the dark until the end and then “wow” them with your main idea, as in a Sherlock Holmes mystery. The reader, however, does not expect a mystery, but an analytical discussion of your topic in an academic style, with the main argument (thesis) stated up front. Example: (After a paper that lists numerous incidents from the book but never says what these incidents reveal about Douglass and his views on education): So, as the evidence above demonstrates, Douglass saw education as a way to undermine the slaveholders’ power and also an important step toward freedom.
• The “America the Beautiful”/”I Am Woman”/”We Shall Overcome” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion usually draws on emotion to make its appeal, but while this emotion and even sentimentality may be very heartfelt, it is usually out of character with the rest of an analytical paper. A more sophisticated commentary, rather than emotional praise, would be a more fitting tribute to the topic. Example: Because of the efforts of fine Americans like Frederick Douglass, countless others have seen the shining beacon of light that is education. His example was a torch that lit the way for others. Frederick Douglass was truly an American hero.
• The “Grab Bag” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion includes extra information that the writer found or thought of but couldn’t integrate into the main paper. You may find it hard to leave out details that you discovered after hours of research and thought, but adding random facts and bits of evidence at the end of an otherwise-well-organized essay can just create confusion. Example: In addition to being an educational pioneer, Frederick Douglass provides an interesting case study for masculinity in the American South. He also offers historians an interesting glimpse into slave resistance when he confronts Covey, the overseer. His relationships with female relatives reveal the importance of family in the slave community.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Douglass, Frederick. 1995. Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass, an American Slave, Written by Himself. New York: Dover.

Hamilton College. n.d. “Conclusions.” Writing Center. Accessed June 14, 2019. https://www.hamilton.edu//academics/centers/writing/writing-resources/conclusions .

Holewa, Randa. 2004. “Strategies for Writing a Conclusion.” LEO: Literacy Education Online. Last updated February 19, 2004. https://leo.stcloudstate.edu/acadwrite/conclude.html.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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Organizing Academic Research Papers: 9. The Conclusion

• Purpose of Guide
• Design Flaws to Avoid
• Glossary of Research Terms
• Narrowing a Topic Idea
• Broadening a Topic Idea
• Extending the Timeliness of a Topic Idea
• Academic Writing Style
• Choosing a Title
• Making an Outline
• Paragraph Development
• Executive Summary
• Background Information
• The Research Problem/Question
• Theoretical Framework
• Citation Tracking
• Content Alert Services
• Evaluating Sources
• Primary Sources
• Secondary Sources
• Tertiary Sources
• What Is Scholarly vs. Popular?
• Qualitative Methods
• Quantitative Methods
• Using Non-Textual Elements
• Limitations of the Study
• Common Grammar Mistakes
• Avoiding Plagiarism
• Footnotes or Endnotes?
• Further Readings
• Annotated Bibliography
• Dealing with Nervousness
• Using Visual Aids
• Grading Someone Else's Paper
• How to Manage Group Projects
• Multiple Book Review Essay
• Reviewing Collected Essays
• About Informed Consent
• Writing Field Notes
• Writing a Policy Memo
• Writing a Research Proposal
• Acknowledgements

The conclusion is intended to help the reader understand why your research should matter to them after they have finished reading the paper. A conclusion is not merely a summary of your points or a re-statement of your research problem but a synthesis of key points. For most essays, one well-developed paragraph is sufficient for a conclusion, although in some cases, a two-or-three paragraph conclusion may be required.

Importance of a Good Conclusion

A well-written conclusion provides you with several important opportunities to demonstrate your overall understanding of the research problem to the reader. These include:

• Presenting the last word on the issues you raised in your paper . Just as the introduction gives a first impression to your reader, the conclusion offers a chance to leave a lasting impression. Do this, for example, by highlighting key points in your analysis or findings.
• Summarizing your thoughts and conveying the larger implications of your study . The conclusion is an opportunity to succinctly answer the "so what?" question by placing the study within the context of past research about the topic you've investigated.
• Demonstrating the importance of your ideas . Don't be shy. The conclusion offers you a chance to elaborate on the significance of your findings.
• Introducing possible new or expanded ways of thinking about the research problem . This does not refer to introducing new information [which should be avoided], but to offer new insight and creative approaches for framing/contextualizing the research problem based on the results of your study.

Conclusions . The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion . San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008.

Structure and Writing Style

https://writing.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/535/2018/07/conclusions_uwmadison_writingcenter_aug2012.pdf I.  General Rules

When writing the conclusion to your paper, follow these general rules:

• State your conclusions in clear, simple language.
• Do not simply reiterate your results or the discussion.
• Indicate opportunities for future research, as long as you haven't already done so in the discussion section of your paper.

The function of your paper's conclusion is to restate the main argument . It reminds the reader of the strengths of your main argument(s) and reiterates the most important evidence supporting those argument(s). Make sure, however, that your conclusion is not simply a repetitive summary of the findings because this reduces the impact of the argument(s) you have developed in your essay.

Consider the following points to help ensure your conclusion is appropriate:

• If the argument or point of your paper is complex, you may need to summarize the argument for your reader.
• If, prior to your conclusion, you have not yet explained the significance of your findings or if you are proceeding inductively, use the end of your paper to describe your main points and explain their significance.
• Move from a detailed to a general level of consideration that returns the topic to the context provided by the introduction or within a new context that emerges from the data.

The conclusion also provides a place for you to persuasively and succinctly restate your research problem, given that the reader has now been presented with all the information about the topic . Depending on the discipline you are writing in, the concluding paragraph may contain your reflections on the evidence presented, or on the essay's central research problem. However, the nature of being introspective about the research you have done will depend on the topic and whether your professor wants you to express your observations in this way.

NOTE : Don't delve into idle speculation. Being introspective means looking within yourself as an author to try and understand an issue more deeply not to guess at possible outcomes.

II.  Developing a Compelling Conclusion

Strategies to help you move beyond merely summarizing the key points of your research paper may include any of the following.

• If your essay deals with a contemporary problem, warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem.
• Recommend a specific course or courses of action.
• Cite a relevant quotation or expert opinion to lend authority to the conclusion you have reached [a good place to look is research from your literature review].
• Restate a key statistic, fact, or visual image to drive home the ultimate point of your paper.
• If your discipline encourages personal reflection, illustrate your concluding point with a relevant narrative drawn from your own life experiences.
• Return to an anecdote, an example, or a quotation that you introduced in your introduction, but add further insight that is derived from the findings of your study; use your interpretation of results to reframe it in new ways.
• Provide a "take-home" message in the form of a strong, succient statement that you want the reader to remember about your study.

III. Problems to Avoid Failure to be concise The conclusion section should be concise and to the point. Conclusions that are too long often have unnecessary detail. The conclusion section is not the place for details about your methodology or results. Although you should give a summary of what was learned from your research, this summary should be relatively brief, since the emphasis in the conclusion is on the implications, evaluations, insights, etc. that you make. Failure to comment on larger, more significant issues In the introduction, your task was to move from general [the field of study] to specific [your research problem]. However, in the conclusion, your task is to move from specific [your research problem] back to general [your field, i.e., how your research contributes new understanding or fills an important gap in the literature]. In other words, the conclusion is where you place your research within a larger context. Failure to reveal problems and negative results Negative aspects of the research process should never be ignored. Problems, drawbacks, and challenges encountered during your study should be included as a way of qualifying your overall conclusions. If you encountered negative results [findings that are validated outside the research context in which they were generated], you must report them in the results section of your paper. In the conclusion, use the negative results as an opportunity to explain how they provide information on which future research can be based. Failure to provide a clear summary of what was learned In order to be able to discuss how your research fits back into your field of study [and possibly the world at large], you need to summarize it briefly and directly. Often this element of your conclusion is only a few sentences long. Failure to match the objectives of your research Often research objectives change while the research is being carried out. This is not a problem unless you forget to go back and refine your original objectives in your introduction, as these changes emerge they must be documented so that they accurately reflect what you were trying to accomplish in your research [not what you thought you might accomplish when you began].

Resist the urge to apologize If you've immersed yourself in studying the research problem, you now know a good deal about it, perhaps even more than your professor! Nevertheless, by the time you have finished writing, you may be having some doubts about what you have produced. Repress those doubts!  Don't undermine your authority by saying something like, "This is just one approach to examining this problem; there may be other, much better approaches...."

Concluding Paragraphs. College Writing Center at Meramec. St. Louis Community College; Conclusions . The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions . The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Freedman, Leora  and Jerry Plotnick. Introductions and Conclusions . The Lab Report. University College Writing Centre. University of Toronto; Leibensperger, Summer. Draft Your Conclusion. Academic Center, the University of Houston-Victoria, 2003; Make Your Last Words Count . The Writer’s Handbook. Writing Center. University of Wisconsin, Madison; Tips for Writing a Good Conclusion . Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion . San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Writing Conclusions . Writing Tutorial Services, Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning. Indiana University; Writing: Considering Structure and Organization . Institute for Writing Rhetoric. Dartmouth College.

Writing Tip

Don't Belabor the Obvious!

Avoid phrases like "in conclusion...," "in summary...," or "in closing...." These phrases can be useful, even welcome, in oral presentations. But readers can see by the tell-tale section heading and number of pages remaining to read, when an essay is about to end. You'll irritate your readers if you belabor the obvious.

Another Writing Tip

New Insight, Not New Information!

Don't surprise the reader with new information in your Conclusion that was never referenced anywhere else in the paper. If you have new information to present, add it to the Discussion or other appropriate section of the paper.  Note that, although no actual new information is introduced, the conclusion is where you offer your most "original" contributions in the paper; it's where you describe the value of your research, demonstrate your understanding of the material that you’ve presented, and locate your findings within the larger context of scholarship on the topic.

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• Conclusion to Research Process

Many of us have experienced research writing projects as a way to “prove” what we already believe.  An essay assignment may ask us to take a position on a matter, and then support that position with evidence found in research.  You will likely encounter projects like this in several classes in college. 

Because you enter a project like this with a thesis in hand (you already know what you believe!), it is very tempting to look for and use only those sources that agree with you and to discard or overlook the others. If you are lucky, you find enough such sources and construct a paper. Ask yourself the following question, though: what have you found out or investigated during your research? Have you discovered new theories, opinions, or aspects of your subject? Did anything surprise you, intrigue you, or make you look further? If you answered no to these questions, you did not fulfill the purpose of true research, which is to explore, to discover, and to investigate.

So, should you begin every research project as a disinterested individual without opinions, ideas, and beliefs? Of course not! There is nothing wrong about having opinions, ideas, and beliefs about your subject before beginning the research process. Good researchers and writers are passionate about their work and want to share their passion with the world. Moreover, pre-existing knowledge can be a powerful research-starter. But what separates a true researcher from someone who simply looks for “proofs” for a pre-fabricated thesis is that a true researcher is willing to question those pre-existing beliefs and to take his or her understanding of the research topic well beyond what he or she knew at the outset. Speaking in terms of the process theory of writing, a good researcher and writer is willing to create new meaning, a new understanding of his or her subject through research and writing and based on the ideas and beliefs that he or she had entering the research project.

• Revision and Adaptation. Provided by : Lumen Learning. License : CC BY-NC-SA: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike
• Image of the mind as a galaxy. Authored by : Eddi van W.. Located at : https://flic.kr/p/7XaciB . License : CC BY-SA: Attribution-ShareAlike
• Research Writing as Process. Authored by : Pavel Zemliansky. Located at : https://threerivers.digication.com/mod/modchap2 . Project : Methods of Discovery. License : CC BY-NC-SA: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike
• Table of Contents

Instructor Resources (available upon sign-in)

• Overview of Instructor Resources
• Quiz Survey

Reading: Types of Reading Material

• Introduction to Reading
• Outcome: Types of Reading Material
• Characteristics of Texts, Part 1
• Characteristics of Texts, Part 2
• Characteristics of Texts, Part 3
• Characteristics of Texts, Conclusion
• Self Check: Types of Writing

Reading: Reading Strategies

• Outcome: Reading Strategies
• The Rhetorical Situation
• Academic Reading Strategies
• Self Check: Reading Strategies

Reading: Specialized Reading Strategies

• Outcome: Specialized Reading Strategies
• Online Reading Comprehension
• How to Read Effectively in Math
• How to Read Effectively in the Social Sciences
• How to Read Effectively in the Sciences
• 5 Step Approach for Reading Charts and Graphs
• Self Check: Specialized Reading Strategies

Reading: Vocabulary

• Outcome: Vocabulary
• Strategies to Improve Your Vocabulary
• Using Context Clues
• The Relationship Between Reading and Vocabulary
• Self Check: Vocabulary

Reading: Thesis

• Outcome: Thesis
• Locating and Evaluating Thesis Statements
• The Organizational Statement
• Self Check: Thesis

Reading: Supporting Claims

• Outcome: Supporting Claims
• Types of Support
• Supporting Claims
• Self Check: Supporting Claims

Reading: Logic and Structure

• Outcome: Logic and Structure
• Rhetorical Modes
• Inductive and Deductive Reasoning
• Diagramming and Evaluating Arguments
• Logical Fallacies
• Evaluating Appeals to Ethos, Logos, and Pathos
• Self Check: Logic and Structure

Reading: Summary Skills

• Outcome: Summary Skills
• How to Annotate
• Paraphrasing
• Quote Bombs
• Summary Writing
• Self Check: Summary Skills
• Conclusion to Reading

Writing Process: Topic Selection

• Introduction to Writing Process
• Outcome: Topic Selection
• Starting a Paper
• Choosing and Developing Topics
• Back to the Future of Topics
• Developing Your Topic
• Self Check: Topic Selection

Writing Process: Prewriting

• Outcome: Prewriting
• Prewriting Strategies for Diverse Learners
• Rhetorical Context
• Working Thesis Statements
• Self Check: Prewriting

Writing Process: Finding Evidence

• Outcome: Finding Evidence
• Using Personal Examples
• Performing Background Research
• Listening to Sources, Talking to Sources
• Self Check: Finding Evidence

Writing Process: Organizing

• Outcome: Organizing
• Moving Beyond the Five-Paragraph Theme
• Introduction to Argument
• The Three-Story Thesis
• Organically Structured Arguments
• Logic and Structure
• The Perfect Paragraph
• Introductions and Conclusions
• Self Check: Organizing

Writing Process: Drafting

• Outcome: Drafting
• From Outlining to Drafting
• Flash Drafts
• Self Check: Drafting

Writing Process: Revising

• Outcome: Revising
• Seeking Input from Others
• Responding to Input from Others
• The Art of Re-Seeing
• Higher Order Concerns
• Self Check: Revising

Writing Process: Proofreading

• Outcome: Proofreading
• Lower Order Concerns
• Proofreading Advice
• "Correctness" in Writing
• The Importance of Spelling
• Punctuation Concerns
• Self Check: Proofreading
• Conclusion to Writing Process

Research Process: Finding Sources

• Introduction to Research Process
• Outcome: Finding Sources
• The Research Process
• Finding Sources
• What are Scholarly Articles?
• Finding Scholarly Articles and Using Databases
• Database Searching
• Advanced Search Strategies
• Preliminary Research Strategies
• Reading and Using Scholarly Sources
• Self Check: Finding Sources

Research Process: Source Analysis

• Outcome: Source Analysis
• Evaluating Sources
• CRAAP Analysis
• Evaluating Websites
• Synthesizing Sources
• Self Check: Source Analysis

Research Process: Writing Ethically

• Outcome: Writing Ethically
• Academic Integrity
• Defining Plagiarism
• Avoiding Plagiarism
• Using Sources in Your Writing
• Self Check: Writing Ethically

Research Process: MLA Documentation

• Introduction to MLA Documentation
• Outcome: MLA Documentation
• MLA Document Formatting
• MLA Works Cited
• Creating MLA Citations
• MLA In-Text Citations
• Self Check: MLA Documentation

Grammar: Nouns and Pronouns

• Introduction to Grammar
• Outcome: Nouns and Pronouns
• Pronoun Cases and Types
• Pronoun Antecedents
• Try It: Nouns and Pronouns
• Self Check: Nouns and Pronouns

Grammar: Verbs

• Outcome: Verbs
• Verb Tenses and Agreement
• Non-Finite Verbs
• Complex Verb Tenses
• Try It: Verbs
• Self Check: Verbs

Grammar: Other Parts of Speech

• Outcome: Other Parts of Speech
• Comparing Adjectives and Adverbs
• Adjectives and Adverbs
• Conjunctions
• Prepositions
• Try It: Other Parts of Speech
• Self Check: Other Parts of Speech

Grammar: Punctuation

• Outcome: Punctuation
• End Punctuation
• Hyphens and Dashes
• Apostrophes and Quotation Marks
• Brackets, Parentheses, and Ellipses
• Semicolons and Colons
• Try It: Punctuation
• Self Check: Punctuation

Grammar: Sentence Structure

• Outcome: Sentence Structure
• Parts of a Sentence
• Common Sentence Structures
• Run-on Sentences
• Sentence Fragments
• Parallel Structure
• Try It: Sentence Structure
• Self Check: Sentence Structure

Grammar: Voice

• Outcome: Voice
• Active and Passive Voice
• Using the Passive Voice
• Conclusion to Grammar
• Try It: Voice
• Self Check: Voice

Success Skills

• Introduction to Success Skills
• Habits for Success
• Critical Thinking
• Time Management
• Writing in College
• Computer-Based Writing
• Conclusion to Success Skills

OASIS: Writing Center

Writing a paper: conclusions, writing a conclusion.

A conclusion is an important part of the paper; it provides closure for the reader while reminding the reader of the contents and importance of the paper. It accomplishes this by stepping back from the specifics in order to view the bigger picture of the document. In other words, it is reminding the reader of the main argument. For most course papers, it is usually one paragraph that simply and succinctly restates the main ideas and arguments, pulling everything together to help clarify the thesis of the paper. A conclusion does not introduce new ideas; instead, it should clarify the intent and importance of the paper. It can also suggest possible future research on the topic.

An Easy Checklist for Writing a Conclusion

It is important to remind the reader of the thesis of the paper so he is reminded of the argument and solutions you proposed.

Think of the main points as puzzle pieces, and the conclusion is where they all fit together to create a bigger picture. The reader should walk away with the bigger picture in mind.

Make sure that the paper places its findings in the context of real social change.

Make sure the reader has a distinct sense that the paper has come to an end. It is important to not leave the reader hanging. (You don’t want her to have flip-the-page syndrome, where the reader turns the page, expecting the paper to continue. The paper should naturally come to an end.)

No new ideas should be introduced in the conclusion. It is simply a review of the material that is already present in the paper. The only new idea would be the suggesting of a direction for future research.

Conclusion Example

As addressed in my analysis of recent research, the advantages of a later starting time for high school students significantly outweigh the disadvantages. A later starting time would allow teens more time to sleep--something that is important for their physical and mental health--and ultimately improve their academic performance and behavior. The added transportation costs that result from this change can be absorbed through energy savings. The beneficial effects on the students’ academic performance and behavior validate this decision, but its effect on student motivation is still unknown. I would encourage an in-depth look at the reactions of students to such a change. This sort of study would help determine the actual effects of a later start time on the time management and sleep habits of students.

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4.6: Conclusion to Research Process

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• Lumen Learning

Many of us have experienced research writing projects as a way to “prove” what we already believe. An essay assignment may ask us to take a position on a matter, and then support that position with evidence found in research. You will likely encounter projects like this in several classes in college.

Because you enter a project like this with a thesis in hand (you already know what you believe!), it is very tempting to look for and use only those sources that agree with you and to discard or overlook the others. If you are lucky, you find enough such sources and construct a paper. Ask yourself the following question, though: what have you found out or investigated during your research? Have you discovered new theories, opinions, or aspects of your subject? Did anything surprise you, intrigue you, or make you look further? If you answered no to these questions, you did not fulfill the purpose of true research, which is to explore, to discover, and to investigate.

Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\)

The purpose of research is not to look for proofs that would fit the author’s pre-existing theories, but to learn about the subject of the investigation as much as possible and then form those theories, opinions, and arguments on the basis of this newly found knowledge and understanding. And what if there is no data that prove your theory? What if, after hours and days of searching, you realize that there is nothing out there that would allow you to make the claim that you wanted to make? Most likely, this will lead to frustration, a change of the paper’s topic, and having to start all over again.

So, should you begin every research project as a disinterested individual without opinions, ideas, and beliefs? Of course not! There is nothing wrong about having opinions, ideas, and beliefs about your subject before beginning the research process. Good researchers and writers are passionate about their work and want to share their passion with the world. Moreover, pre-existing knowledge can be a powerful research-starter. But what separates a true researcher from someone who simply looks for “proofs” for a pre-fabricated thesis is that a true researcher is willing to question those pre-existing beliefs and to take his or her understanding of the research topic well beyond what he or she knew at the outset. Speaking in terms of the process theory of writing, a good researcher and writer is willing to create new meaning, a new understanding of his or her subject through research and writing and based on the ideas and beliefs that he or she had entering the research project.

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Research Process Steps: What they are + How To Follow

There are various approaches to conducting basic and applied research. This article explains the research process steps you should know. Whether you are doing basic research or applied research, there are many ways of doing it. In some ways, each research study is unique since it is conducted at a different time and place.

Conducting research might be difficult, but there are clear processes to follow. The research process starts with a broad idea for a topic. This article will assist you through the research process steps, helping you focus and develop your topic.

Research Process Steps

The research process consists of a series of systematic procedures that a researcher must go through in order to generate knowledge that will be considered valuable by the project and focus on the relevant topic.

To conduct effective research, you must understand the research process steps and follow them. Here are a few steps in the research process to make it easier for you:

Step 1: Identify the Problem

Finding an issue or formulating a research question is the first step. A well-defined research problem will guide the researcher through all stages of the research process, from setting objectives to choosing a technique. There are a number of approaches to get insight into a topic and gain a better understanding of it. Such as:

• A preliminary survey
• Case studies
• Interviews with a small group of people
• Observational survey

Step 2: Evaluate the Literature

A thorough examination of the relevant studies is essential to the research process . It enables the researcher to identify the precise aspects of the problem. Once a problem has been found, the investigator or researcher needs to find out more about it.

This stage gives problem-zone background. It teaches the investigator about previous research, how they were conducted, and its conclusions. The researcher can build consistency between his work and others through a literature review. Such a review exposes the researcher to a more significant body of knowledge and helps him follow the research process efficiently.

Step 3: Create Hypotheses

Formulating an original hypothesis is the next logical step after narrowing down the research topic and defining it. A belief solves logical relationships between variables. In order to establish a hypothesis, a researcher must have a certain amount of expertise in the field. 

It is important for researchers to keep in mind while formulating a hypothesis that it must be based on the research topic. Researchers are able to concentrate their efforts and stay committed to their objectives when they develop theories to guide their work.

Step 4: The Research Design

Research design is the plan for achieving objectives and answering research questions. It outlines how to get the relevant information. Its goal is to design research to test hypotheses, address the research questions, and provide decision-making insights.

The research design aims to minimize the time, money, and effort required to acquire meaningful evidence. This plan fits into four categories:

• Exploration and Surveys
• Data Analysis
• Observation

Step 5: Describe Population

Research projects usually look at a specific group of people, facilities, or how technology is used in the business. In research, the term population refers to this study group. The research topic and purpose help determine the study group.

Suppose a researcher wishes to investigate a certain group of people in the community. In that case, the research could target a specific age group, males or females, a geographic location, or an ethnic group. A final step in a study’s design is to specify its sample or population so that the results may be generalized.

Step 6: Data Collection

Data collection is important in obtaining the knowledge or information required to answer the research issue. Every research collected data, either from the literature or the people being studied. Data must be collected from the two categories of researchers. These sources may provide primary data.

• Questionnaire

Secondary data categories are:

• Literature survey
• Official, unofficial reports
• An approach based on library resources

Step 7: Data Analysis

During research design, the researcher plans data analysis. After collecting data, the researcher analyzes it. The data is examined based on the approach in this step. The research findings are reviewed and reported.

Data analysis involves a number of closely related stages, such as setting up categories, applying these categories to raw data through coding and tabulation, and then drawing statistical conclusions. The researcher can examine the acquired data using a variety of statistical methods.

Step 8: The Report-writing

After completing these steps, the researcher must prepare a report detailing his findings. The report must be carefully composed with the following in mind:

• The Layout: On the first page, the title, date, acknowledgments, and preface should be on the report. A table of contents should be followed by a list of tables, graphs, and charts if any.
• Introduction: It should state the research’s purpose and methods. This section should include the study’s scope and limits.
• Summary of Findings: A non-technical summary of findings and recommendations will follow the introduction. The findings should be summarized if they’re lengthy.
• Principal Report: The main body of the report should make sense and be broken up into sections that are easy to understand.
• Conclusion: The researcher should restate his findings at the end of the main text. It’s the final result.

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The research process involves several steps that make it easy to complete the research successfully. The steps in the research process described above depend on each other, and the order must be kept. So, if we want to do a research project, we should follow the research process steps.

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Research Process: 8 Steps in Research Process

The research process starts with identifying a research problem and conducting a literature review to understand the context. The researcher sets research questions, objectives, and hypotheses based on the research problem.

A research study design is formed to select a sample size and collect data after processing and analyzing the collected data and the research findings presented in a research report.

What is the Research Process?

There are a variety of approaches to research in any field of investigation, irrespective of whether it is applied research or basic research. Each research study will be unique in some ways because of the particular time, setting, environment, and place it is being undertaken.

Nevertheless, all research endeavors share a common goal of furthering our understanding of the problem, and thus, all traverse through certain primary stages, forming a process called the research process.

Understanding the research process is necessary to effectively carry out research and sequence the stages inherent in the process.

How Research Process Work?

Eight steps research process is, in essence, part and parcel of a research proposal. It is an outline of the commitment that you intend to follow in executing a research study.

A close examination of the above stages reveals that each of these stages, by and large, is dependent upon the others.

One cannot analyze data (step 7) unless he has collected data (step 6). One cannot write a report (step 8) unless he has collected and analyzed data (step 7).

Research then is a system of interdependent related stages. Violation of this sequence can cause irreparable harm to the study.

It is also true that several alternatives are available to the researcher during each stage stated above. A research process can be compared with a route map.

The map analogy is useful for the researcher because several alternatives exist at each stage of the research process.

Choosing the best alternative in terms of time constraints, money, and human resources in our research decision is our primary goal.

Before explaining the stages of the research process, we explain the term ‘iterative’ appearing within the oval-shaped diagram at the center of the schematic diagram.

The key to a successful research project ultimately lies in iteration: the process of returning again and again to the identification of the research problems, methodology, data collection, etc., which leads to new ideas, revisions, and improvements.

By discussing the research project with advisers and peers, one will often find that new research questions need to be added, variables to be omitted, added or redefined, and other changes to be made. As a proposed study is examined and reexamined from different perspectives, it may begin to transform and take a different shape.

This is expected and is an essential component of a good research study.

Besides, examining study methods and data collected from different viewpoints is important to ensure a comprehensive approach to the research question.

In conclusion, there is seldom any single strategy or formula for developing a successful research study, but it is essential to realize that the research process is cyclical and iterative.

What is the primary purpose of the research process?

The research process aims to identify a research problem, understand its context through a literature review, set research questions and objectives, design a research study, select a sample, collect data, analyze the data, and present the findings in a research report.

Why is the research design important in the research process?

The research design is the blueprint for fulfilling objectives and answering research questions. It specifies the methods and procedures for collecting, processing, and analyzing data, ensuring the study is structured and systematic.

8 Steps of Research Process

Identifying the research problem.

The first and foremost task in the entire process of scientific research is to identify a research problem .

A well-identified problem will lead the researcher to accomplish all-important phases of the research process, from setting objectives to selecting the research methodology .

But the core question is: whether all problems require research.

We have countless problems around us, but all we encounter do not qualify as research problems; thus, these do not need to be researched.

Keeping this point in mind, we must draw a line between research and non-research problems.

Intuitively, researchable problems are those that have a possibility of thorough verification investigation, which can be effected through the analysis and collection of data. In contrast, the non-research problems do not need to go through these processes.

Researchers need to identify both;

Non-Research Problems

Statement of the problem, justifying the problem, analyzing the problem.

A non-research problem does not require any research to arrive at a solution. Intuitively, a non-researchable problem consists of vague details and cannot be resolved through research.

It is a managerial or built-in problem that may be solved at the administrative or management level. The answer to any question raised in a non-research setting is almost always obvious.

The cholera outbreak, for example, following a severe flood, is a common phenomenon in many communities. The reason for this is known. It is thus not a research problem.

Similarly, the reasons for the sudden rise in prices of many essential commodities following the announcement of the budget by the Finance Minister need no investigation. Hence it is not a problem that needs research.

How is a research problem different from a non-research problem?

A research problem is a perceived difficulty that requires thorough verification and investigation through data analysis and collection. In contrast, a non-research problem does not require research for a solution, as the answer is often obvious or already known.

Non-Research Problems Examples

A recent survey in town- A found that 1000 women were continuous users of contraceptive pills.

But last month’s service statistics indicate that none of these women were using contraceptive pills (Fisher et al. 1991:4).

The discrepancy is that ‘all 1000 women should have been using a pill, but none is doing so. The question is: why the discrepancy exists?

Well, the fact is, a monsoon flood has prevented all new supplies of pills from reaching town- A, and all old supplies have been exhausted. Thus, although the problem situation exists, the reason for the problem is already known.

Therefore, assuming all the facts are correct, there is no reason to research the factors associated with pill discontinuation among women. This is, thus, a non-research problem.

A pilot survey by University students revealed that in Rural Town-A, the goiter prevalence among school children is as high as 80%, while in the neighboring Rural Town-A, it is only 30%. Why is a discrepancy?

Upon inquiry, it was seen that some three years back, UNICEF launched a lipiodol injection program in the neighboring Rural Town-A.

This attempt acted as a preventive measure against the goiter. The reason for the discrepancy is known; hence, we do not consider the problem a research problem.

A hospital treated a large number of cholera cases with penicillin, but the treatment with penicillin was not found to be effective. Do we need research to know the reason?

Here again, there is one single reason that Vibrio cholera is not sensitive to penicillin; therefore, this is not the drug of choice for this disease.

In this case, too, as the reasons are known, it is unwise to undertake any study to find out why penicillin does not improve the condition of cholera patients. This is also a non-research problem.

In the tea marketing system , buying and selling tea starts with bidders. Blenders purchase open tea from the bidders. Over the years, marketing cost has been the highest for bidders and the lowest for blenders. What makes this difference?

The bidders pay exorbitantly higher transport costs, which constitute about 30% of their total cost.

Blenders have significantly fewer marketing functions involving transportation, so their marketing cost remains minimal.

Hence no research is needed to identify the factors that make this difference.

Here are some of the problems we frequently encounter, which may well be considered non-research problems:

• Rises in the price of warm clothes during winter;
• Preferring admission to public universities over private universities;
• Crisis of accommodations in sea resorts during summer
• Traffic jams in the city street after office hours;
• High sales in department stores after an offer of a discount.

Research Problem

In contrast to a non-research problem, a research problem is of primary concern to a researcher.

A research problem is a perceived difficulty, a feeling of discomfort, or a discrepancy between a common belief and reality.

As noted by Fisher et al. (1993), a problem will qualify as a potential research problem when the following three conditions exist:

• There should be a perceived discrepancy between “what it is” and “what it should have been.” This implies that there should be a difference between “what exists” and the “ideal or planned situation”;
• A question about “why” the discrepancy exists. This implies that the reason(s) for this discrepancy is unclear to the researcher (so that it makes sense to develop a research question); and
• There should be at least two possible answers or solutions to the questions or problems.

The third point is important. If there is only one possible and plausible answer to the question about the discrepancy, then a research situation does not exist.

It is a non-research problem that can be tackled at the managerial or administrative level.

Research Problem Examples

Research problem – example #1.

While visiting a rural area, the UNICEF team observed that some villages have female school attendance rates as high as 75%, while some have as low as 10%, although all villages should have a nearly equal attendance rate. What factors are associated with this discrepancy?

We may enumerate several reasons for this:

• Villages differ in their socio-economic background.
• In some villages, the Muslim population constitutes a large proportion of the total population. Religion might play a vital role.
• Schools are far away from some villages. The distance thus may make this difference.

Because there is more than one answer to the problem, it is considered a research problem, and a study can be undertaken to find a solution.

Research Problem – Example #2

The Government has been making all-out efforts to ensure a regular flow of credit in rural areas at a concession rate through liberal lending policy and establishing many bank branches in rural areas.

Knowledgeable sources indicate that expected development in rural areas has not yet been achieved, mainly because of improper credit utilization.

More than one reason is suspected for such misuse or misdirection.

These include, among others:

• Diversion of credit money to some unproductive sectors
• Transfer of credit money to other people like money lenders, who exploit the rural people with this money
• Lack of knowledge of proper utilization of the credit.

Here too, reasons for misuse of loans are more than one. We thus consider this problem as a researchable problem.

Research Problem – Example #3

Let’s look at a new headline: Stock Exchange observes the steepest ever fall in stock prices: several injured as retail investors clash with police , vehicles ransacked .

Investors’ demonstration, protest and clash with police pause a problem. Still, it is certainly not a research problem since there is only one known reason for the problem: Stock Exchange experiences the steepest fall in stock prices. But what causes this unprecedented fall in the share market?

Experts felt that no single reason could be attributed to the problem. It is a mix of several factors and is a research problem. The following were assumed to be some of the possible reasons:

• The merchant banking system;
• Liquidity shortage because of the hike in the rate of cash reserve requirement (CRR);
• IMF’s warnings and prescriptions on the commercial banks’ exposure to the stock market;
• Increase in supply of new shares;
• Manipulation of share prices;
• Lack of knowledge of the investors on the company’s fundamentals.

The choice of a research problem is not as easy as it appears. The researchers generally guide it;

• own intellectual orientation ,
• level of training,
• experience,
• knowledge on the subject matter, and
• intellectual curiosity.

Theoretical and practical considerations also play a vital role in choosing a research problem. Societal needs also guide in choosing a research problem.

Once we have chosen a research problem, a few more related steps must be followed before a decision is taken to undertake a research study.

These include, among others, the following:

• Statement of the problem.
• Justifying the problem.
• Analyzing the problem.

A detailed exposition of these issues is undertaken in chapter ten while discussing the proposal development.

A clear and well-defined problem statement is considered the foundation for developing the research proposal.

It enables the researcher to systematically point out why the proposed research on the problem should be undertaken and what he hopes to achieve with the study’s findings.

A well-defined statement of the problem will lead the researcher to formulate the research objectives, understand the background of the study, and choose a proper research methodology.

Once the problem situation has been identified and clearly stated, it is important to justify the importance of the problem.

In justifying the problems, we ask such questions as why the problem of the study is important, how large and widespread the problem is, and whether others can be convinced about the importance of the problem and the like.

Answers to the above questions should be reviewed and presented in one or two paragraphs that justify the importance of the problem.

As a first step in analyzing the problem, critical attention should be given to accommodate the viewpoints of the managers, users, and researchers to the problem through threadbare discussions.

The next step is identifying the factors that may have contributed to the perceived problems.

Issues of Research Problem Identification

There are several ways to identify, define, and analyze a problem, obtain insights, and get a clearer idea about these issues. Exploratory research is one of the ways of accomplishing this.

The purpose of the exploratory research process is to progressively narrow the scope of the topic and transform the undefined problems into defined ones, incorporating specific research objectives.

The exploratory study entails a few basic strategies for gaining insights into the problem. It is accomplished through such efforts as:

Pilot Survey

A pilot survey collects proxy data from the ultimate subjects of the study to serve as a guide for the large study. A pilot study generates primary data, usually for qualitative analysis.

This characteristic distinguishes a pilot survey from secondary data analysis, which gathers background information.

Case Studies

Case studies are quite helpful in diagnosing a problem and paving the way to defining the problem. It investigates one or a few situations identical to the researcher’s problem.

Focus Group Interviews

Focus group interviews, an unstructured free-flowing interview with a small group of people, may also be conducted to understand and define a research problem .

Experience Survey

Experience survey is another strategy to deal with the problem of identifying and defining the research problem.

It is an exploratory research endeavor in which individuals knowledgeable and experienced in a particular research problem are intimately consulted to understand the problem.

These persons are sometimes known as key informants, and an interview with them is popularly known as the Key Informant Interview (KII).

Reviewing of Literature

A review of relevant literature is an integral part of the research process. It enables the researcher to formulate his problem in terms of the specific aspects of the general area of his interest that has not been researched so far.

Such a review provides exposure to a larger body of knowledge and equips him with enhanced knowledge to efficiently follow the research process.

Through a proper review of the literature, the researcher may develop the coherence between the results of his study and those of the others.

A review of previous documents on similar or related phenomena is essential even for beginning researchers.

Ignoring the existing literature may lead to wasted effort on the part of the researchers.

Why spend time merely repeating what other investigators have already done?

Suppose the researcher is aware of earlier studies of his topic or related topics . In that case, he will be in a much better position to assess his work’s significance and convince others that it is important.

A confident and expert researcher is more crucial in questioning the others’ methodology, the choice of the data, and the quality of the inferences drawn from the study results.

In sum, we enumerate the following arguments in favor of reviewing the literature:

• It avoids duplication of the work that has been done in the recent past.
• It helps the researcher discover what others have learned and reported on the problem.
• It enables the researcher to become familiar with the methodology followed by others.
• It allows the researcher to understand what concepts and theories are relevant to his area of investigation.
• It helps the researcher to understand if there are any significant controversies, contradictions, and inconsistencies in the findings.
• It allows the researcher to understand if there are any unanswered research questions.
• It might help the researcher to develop an analytical framework.
• It will help the researcher consider including variables in his research that he might not have thought about.

Why is reviewing literature crucial in the research process?

Reviewing literature helps avoid duplicating previous work, discovers what others have learned about the problem, familiarizes the researcher with relevant concepts and theories, and ensures a comprehensive approach to the research question.

What is the significance of reviewing literature in the research process?

Reviewing relevant literature helps formulate the problem, understand the background of the study, choose a proper research methodology, and develop coherence between the study’s results and previous findings.

Setting Research Questions, Objectives, and Hypotheses

After discovering and defining the research problem, researchers should make a formal statement of the problem leading to research objectives .

An objective will precisely say what should be researched, delineate the type of information that should be collected, and provide a framework for the scope of the study. A well-formulated, testable research hypothesis is the best expression of a research objective.

A hypothesis is an unproven statement or proposition that can be refuted or supported by empirical data. Hypothetical statements assert a possible answer to a research question.

Step #4: Choosing the Study Design

The research design is the blueprint or framework for fulfilling objectives and answering research questions .

It is a master plan specifying the methods and procedures for collecting, processing, and analyzing the collected data. There are four basic research designs that a researcher can use to conduct their study;

• experiment,
• secondary data study, and
• observational study.

The type of research design to be chosen from among the above four methods depends primarily on four factors:

• The type of problem
• The objectives of the study,
• The existing state of knowledge about the problem that is being studied, and
• The resources are available for the study.

Deciding on the Sample Design

Sampling is an important and separate step in the research process. The basic idea of sampling is that it involves any procedure that uses a relatively small number of items or portions (called a sample) of a universe (called population) to conclude the whole population.

It contrasts with the process of complete enumeration, in which every member of the population is included.

Such a complete enumeration is referred to as a census.

A population is the total collection of elements we wish to make some inference or generalization.

A sample is a part of the population, carefully selected to represent that population. If certain statistical procedures are followed in selecting the sample, it should have the same characteristics as the population. These procedures are embedded in the sample design.

Sample design refers to the methods followed in selecting a sample from the population and the estimating technique vis-a-vis the formula for computing the sample statistics .

The fundamental question is, then, how to select a sample.

To answer this question, we must have acquaintance with the sampling methods.

These methods are basically of two types;

• probability sampling , and
• non-probability sampling .

Probability sampling ensures every unit has a known nonzero probability of selection within the target population.

If there is no feasible alternative, a non-probability sampling method may be employed.

The basis of such selection is entirely dependent on the researcher’s discretion. This approach is called judgment sampling, convenience sampling, accidental sampling, and purposive sampling.

The most widely used probability sampling methods are simple random sampling , stratified random sampling , cluster sampling , and systematic sampling . They have been classified by their representation basis and unit selection techniques.

Two other variations of the sampling methods that are in great use are multistage sampling and probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling .

Multistage sampling is most commonly used in drawing samples from very large and diverse populations.

The PPS sampling is a variation of multistage sampling in which the probability of selecting a cluster is proportional to its size, and an equal number of elements are sampled within each cluster.

Collecting Data From The Research Sample

Data gathering may range from simple observation to a large-scale survey in any defined population. There are many ways to collect data. The approach selected depends on the objectives of the study, the research design, and the availability of time, money, and personnel.

With the variation in the type of data (qualitative or quantitative) to be collected, the method of data collection also varies .

The most common means for collecting quantitative data is the structured interview .

Studies that obtain data by interviewing respondents are called surveys. Data can also be collected by using self-administered questionnaires . Telephone interviewing is another way in which data may be collected .

Other means of data collection include secondary sources, such as the census, vital registration records, official documents, previous surveys, etc.

Qualitative data are collected mainly through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions , Key Informant Interview ( KII), and observational studies.

Process and Analyze the Collected Research Data

Data processing generally begins with the editing and coding of data . Data are edited to ensure consistency across respondents and to locate omissions if any.

In survey data, editing reduces errors in the recording, improves legibility, and clarifies unclear and inappropriate responses. In addition to editing, the data also need coding.

Because it is impractical to place raw data into a report, alphanumeric codes are used to reduce the responses to a more manageable form for storage and future processing.

This coding process facilitates the processing of the data. The personal computer offers an excellent opportunity for data editing and coding processes.

Data analysis usually involves reducing accumulated data to a manageable size, developing summaries, searching for patterns, and applying statistical techniques for understanding and interpreting the findings in light of the research questions.

Further, based on his analysis, the researcher determines if his findings are consistent with the formulated hypotheses and theories.

The techniques used in analyzing data may range from simple graphical techniques to very complex multivariate analyses depending on the study’s objectives, the research design employed, and the nature of the data collected.

As in the case of data collection methods, an analytical technique appropriate in one situation may not be suitable for another.

Writing Research Report – Developing Research Proposal, Writing Report, Disseminating and Utilizing Results

The entire task of a research study is accumulated in a document called a proposal or research proposal.

A research proposal is a work plan, prospectus, outline, offer, and a statement of intent or commitment from an individual researcher or an organization to produce a product or render a service to a potential client or sponsor .

The proposal will be prepared to keep the sequence presented in the research process. The proposal tells us what, how, where, and to whom it will be done.

It must also show the benefit of doing it. It always includes an explanation of the purpose of the study (the research objectives) or a definition of the problem.

It systematically outlines the particular research methodology and details the procedures utilized at each stage of the research process.

The end goal of a scientific study is to interpret the results and draw conclusions.

To this end, it is necessary to prepare a report and transmit the findings and recommendations to administrators, policymakers, and program managers to make a decision.

There are various research reports: term papers, dissertations, journal articles , papers for presentation at professional conferences and seminars, books, thesis, and so on. The results of a research investigation prepared in any form are of little utility if they are not communicated to others.

The primary purpose of a dissemination strategy is to identify the most effective media channels to reach different audience groups with study findings most relevant to their needs.

The dissemination may be made through a conference, a seminar, a report, or an oral or poster presentation.

The style and organization of the report will differ according to the target audience , the occasion, and the purpose of the research. Reports should be developed from the client’s perspective.

A report is an excellent means that helps to establish the researcher’s credibility. At a bare minimum, a research report should contain sections on:

• An executive summary;
• Background of the problem;
• Literature review;
• Methodology;
• Discussion;
• Conclusions and
• Recommendations.

The study results can also be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals published by academic institutions and reputed publishers both at home and abroad. The report should be properly evaluated .

These journals have their format and editorial policies. The contributors can submit their manuscripts adhering to the policies and format for possible publication of their papers.

There are now ample opportunities for researchers to publish their work online.

The researchers have conducted many interesting studies without affecting actual settings. Ideally, the concluding step of a scientific study is to plan for its utilization in the real world.

Although researchers are often not in a position to implement a plan for utilizing research findings, they can contribute by including in their research reports a few recommendations regarding how the study results could be utilized for policy formulation and program intervention.

Why is the dissemination of research findings important?

Dissemination of research findings is crucial because the results of a research investigation have little utility if not communicated to others. Dissemination ensures that the findings reach relevant stakeholders, policymakers, and program managers to inform decisions.

How should a research report be structured?

A research report should contain sections on an executive summary, background of the problem, literature review, methodology, findings, discussion, conclusions, and recommendations.

Why is it essential to consider the target audience when preparing a research report?

The style and organization of a research report should differ based on the target audience, occasion, and research purpose. Tailoring the report to the audience ensures that the findings are communicated effectively and are relevant to their needs.

Now that you are familiar with research process; explore complete guideline on research and research methodology concepts .

• Education Research: Definition, Examples
• Legal Research Design and Structure [11 Elements]
• Observation Method of Data Collection: Advantages, Disadvantages, Techniques, Types
• Evaluative Research: Definition, Examples
• Thurstone Scale: Definition, Example
• Semantic Differential: Definition, Example
• Validity in Experimentation
• Top 10 Trending Research Topics to Write About
• Design Effect: Definition, Examples
• Population Research: Definition, Examples
• Writing a Research Report
• Level of Measurement: 4 Scales of Measurement
• Exploratory Research: Definition, Types, Examples
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Process, Design, Methods
• Non-Probability Sampling

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• Starting the research process

A Beginner's Guide to Starting the Research Process

When you have to write a thesis or dissertation , it can be hard to know where to begin, but there are some clear steps you can follow.

The research process often begins with a very broad idea for a topic you’d like to know more about. You do some preliminary research to identify a  problem . After refining your research questions , you can lay out the foundations of your research design , leading to a proposal that outlines your ideas and plans.

This article takes you through the first steps of the research process, helping you narrow down your ideas and build up a strong foundation for your research project.

Table of contents

Step 1: choose your topic, step 2: identify a problem, step 3: formulate research questions, step 4: create a research design, step 5: write a research proposal, other interesting articles.

First you have to come up with some ideas. Your thesis or dissertation topic can start out very broad. Think about the general area or field you’re interested in—maybe you already have specific research interests based on classes you’ve taken, or maybe you had to consider your topic when applying to graduate school and writing a statement of purpose .

Even if you already have a good sense of your topic, you’ll need to read widely to build background knowledge and begin narrowing down your ideas. Conduct an initial literature review to begin gathering relevant sources. As you read, take notes and try to identify problems, questions, debates, contradictions and gaps. Your aim is to narrow down from a broad area of interest to a specific niche.

Make sure to consider the practicalities: the requirements of your programme, the amount of time you have to complete the research, and how difficult it will be to access sources and data on the topic. Before moving onto the next stage, it’s a good idea to discuss the topic with your thesis supervisor.

>>Read more about narrowing down a research topic

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So you’ve settled on a topic and found a niche—but what exactly will your research investigate, and why does it matter? To give your project focus and purpose, you have to define a research problem .

The problem might be a practical issue—for example, a process or practice that isn’t working well, an area of concern in an organization’s performance, or a difficulty faced by a specific group of people in society.

Alternatively, you might choose to investigate a theoretical problem—for example, an underexplored phenomenon or relationship, a contradiction between different models or theories, or an unresolved debate among scholars.

To put the problem in context and set your objectives, you can write a problem statement . This describes who the problem affects, why research is needed, and how your research project will contribute to solving it.

>>Read more about defining a research problem

Next, based on the problem statement, you need to write one or more research questions . These target exactly what you want to find out. They might focus on describing, comparing, evaluating, or explaining the research problem.

A strong research question should be specific enough that you can answer it thoroughly using appropriate qualitative or quantitative research methods. It should also be complex enough to require in-depth investigation, analysis, and argument. Questions that can be answered with “yes/no” or with easily available facts are not complex enough for a thesis or dissertation.

In some types of research, at this stage you might also have to develop a conceptual framework and testable hypotheses .

>>See research question examples

The research design is a practical framework for answering your research questions. It involves making decisions about the type of data you need, the methods you’ll use to collect and analyze it, and the location and timescale of your research.

There are often many possible paths you can take to answering your questions. The decisions you make will partly be based on your priorities. For example, do you want to determine causes and effects, draw generalizable conclusions, or understand the details of a specific context?

You need to decide whether you will use primary or secondary data and qualitative or quantitative methods . You also need to determine the specific tools, procedures, and materials you’ll use to collect and analyze your data, as well as your criteria for selecting participants or sources.

>>Read more about creating a research design

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Finally, after completing these steps, you are ready to complete a research proposal . The proposal outlines the context, relevance, purpose, and plan of your research.

As well as outlining the background, problem statement, and research questions, the proposal should also include a literature review that shows how your project will fit into existing work on the topic. The research design section describes your approach and explains exactly what you will do.

You might have to get the proposal approved by your supervisor before you get started, and it will guide the process of writing your thesis or dissertation.

>>Read more about writing a research proposal

If you want to know more about the research process , methodology , research bias , or statistics , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

Methodology

• Sampling methods
• Simple random sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Cluster sampling
• Likert scales
• Reproducibility

 Statistics

• Null hypothesis
• Statistical power
• Probability distribution
• Effect size
• Poisson distribution

Research bias

• Optimism bias
• Cognitive bias
• Implicit bias
• Hawthorne effect
• Anchoring bias
• Explicit bias

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How to Optimize Your Research Process: A step-by-step guide

For researchers across disciplines, the path to uncovering novel findings and insights is often filled with uncertainties. From conceptualizing a viable research question to navigating through the vortex of data and information available today, the research process can be a bit daunting.

However, through these challenges lies a path of unparalleled intellectual growth and self-discovery. This path of research process, when approached with diligence and systematic thinking can refine your logical reasoning, organizational abilities, and capacity for critical analysis. Each correct step on this road makes you one step closer to your discovery.

Understanding the Research Process

The research process is a structured approach to acquiring knowledge and generating new insights. It is a methodical journey that begins with identifying a research problem or question and leads to dissemination of findings that contribute to the existing body of knowledge.

The research process serves multiple purposes, including advancing understanding, solving real-world problems, fostering critical thinking, and establishing credibility.

The skills acquired during the research process such as critical thinking, problem-solving, and effective communication become invaluable assets that further propels the growth of a researcher.

Steps of a Research Process

The research process unfolds in a meticulous, step-by-step manner, with each stage informed by the preceding one. Ensuring the efficacy of your research demands unwavering attention to detail, diligent execution at each stage, and a commitment to learning, irrespective of the challenges that may arise.

1. Identify and Define the Research Question

The foundation of any successful research endeavor lies in the formulation of a compelling research question. Starting strong at this important stage will set the tone for your entire project’s journey.

It involves:

i. Identifying a specific area of interest that pique your curiosity or align with your research goals.

ii. Refining it into a focused and researchable query. Remember, that a well-crafted research question should be clear, concise, and answerable within the constraints of your resources and timeline.

2. Literature Review

The next step is to immerse yourself in the existing body of knowledge. Conducting a comprehensive literature review is an indispensable component of the research process, as it provides a solid theoretical foundation. By examining previous research, theories, and methodologies, you gain a deeper understanding of the current state of knowledge within your area of interest.

It further reveals gaps and inconsistencies that have been overlooked or insufficiently explored, highlighting opportunities for new insights.

In today’s digital age, AI-powered tools like Enago Read can be used for research summarization . Such tools help streamline this process, enabling you to efficiently summarize vast literature sources to find relevant information.

3. Design a Robust Research Plan

This step is like laying the blueprint for your intellectual journey. Without a plan you would be lost. Crafting a robust research plan ensures that your research is built on a solid foundation of sound methodology and rigorous inquiry. It encompasses determining your research methodology, identifying the appropriate data collection techniques, and laying down a clear analytical framework.

4. Streamlining Data Collection and Analysis

This phase lies at the heart of your research endeavor, where you transform your theoretical constructs into tangible findings.

i. Meticulously gathering data from various sources depending on your research design. Regardless of the source employed for data collection, it is essential to adhere to strict protocols and maintain rigorous standards throughout this process. This will ensure the validity and reliability of your data.

ii. Subjecting the gathered data to rigorous analytical techniques that aligns with your research design and objectives.

iii. Leveraging advanced data analysis tools and statistical software to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of your analyses. These powerful resources can streamline complex calculations, visualize patterns, and uncover insights that may be difficult to discern through manual processes alone.

Throughout this phase, it is essential to maintain meticulous documentation and adherence to ethical guidelines, ensuring that your research practices are transparent, replicable, and respectful of human subjects or other considerations.

5. Interpreting Results and Drawing Conclusions

You can now embark on the exciting task of interpreting your results and drawing meaningful conclusions. This step requires a delicate balance of critical thinking, objectivity, and a keen ability to synthesize your findings within the broader context of your research question and existing literature.

i. Approach your results with a critical mindset. Challenge your assumptions and consider alternative explanations or interpretations.

ii. Identify how your findings corroborate, contradict, or expand upon previous research, and explore the implications for your field.

iii. If your research involved the formulation of hypotheses, this is the stage where you assess whether your data supports or refutes them. Be prepared to embrace unexpected or counterintuitive findings, as they often pave the way for groundbreaking discoveries.

iv. Remember, no research is perfect, and it is crucial to acknowledge the limitations of your study. It will pave the way for future investigations to build upon your findings.

6. Writing the Research Paper

The culmination of your research journey is the writing of the research paper . This step demands a delicate balance of precision, clarity, and adherence to established academic conventions.

i. Your research paper should effectively convey the essence of your study, articulating your research question, methodology, results, and conclusions in a logical and compelling manner.

ii. Each discipline has its own set of writing conventions, including specific formatting guidelines, citation styles , and structural expectations. Familiarize yourself with these conventions and ensure that your paper adheres to them rigorously.

iii. A well-crafted research paper should seamlessly weave together the various components of your study, creating a cohesive narrative that guides the reader through your intellectual journey.

Follow the tips given below to write an effective research paper:

Throughout the writing process, seek feedback from peers, mentors, or professional editing services to ensure that your work is polished, well-reasoned, and accessible to your intended audience.

7. Proofreading and Editing

Before submitting your research paper for publication or evaluation, it is crucial to meticulously proofread and edit your work. This step ensures that your research is presented in the most professional and polished manner possible, free from errors or inconsistencies that could detract from the clarity and impact of your message.

Carefully review your paper for any typos, spelling mistakes, or deviations from the prescribed formatting guidelines. These seemingly minor errors can undermine the credibility of your work.

Ensure that your writing is concise, unambiguous, and effectively conveys the nuances of your research. Avoid jargon or convoluted language that could obscure your findings.

Tools like Trinka can proofread and check your entered text for grammatical errors , thus enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of this process. These advanced algorithms can identify and correct a wide range of errors, allowing you to polish your work to perfection.

Maintaining a spirit of curiosity, perseverance, and adherence to ethical practices is key throughout this journey. By embracing these steps and leveraging the power of AI-assisted tools, you can navigate the research process with confidence, ultimately contributing to the advancement of knowledge within your field of study.

Sharing your research findings in a journal marks a notable achievement in your academic journey. Yet, enhancing your visibility as a researcher can be achieved by communicating your work through simplified summaries. Consider submitting your plain language research summary to our Open Platform , allowing your work to reach a wide and diverse audience within the academic community.

Frequently Asked Questions

The purpose of the research process is to advance understanding, solve real-world problems, foster critical thinking, and establish credibility of the research findings.

Optimizing your research process enhances efficiency, improves research quality, increases the likelihood of producing meaningful insights, and enhances your credibility as a researcher

Assessing the reliability of a source for research involves several factors. These include looking for peer-reviewed publications from reputable journals or academic publishers, checking the credentials of the author or organization to gauge their expertise and credibility, and evaluating the relevance of the information to ensure it aligns with your research goals. Furthermore, cross-reference the source with other reputable sources to verify its accuracy and validity.

Staying organized during the research process is essential for efficiency and effectiveness. Start by clearly defining your research question and objectives. Furthermore, create a detailed timeline, maintain thorough records, use citation managers and databases, establish a filing system, and regularly review progress to stay organized and address challenges promptly.

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Module 4: Research Process

Conclusion to research process.

Many of us have experienced research writing projects as a way to “prove” what we already believe.  An essay assignment may ask us to take a position on a matter, and then support that position with evidence found in research.  You will likely encounter projects like this in several classes in college. 

Because you enter a project like this with a thesis in hand (you already know what you believe!), it is very tempting to look for and use only those sources that agree with you and to discard or overlook the others. If you are lucky, you find enough such sources and construct a paper. Ask yourself the following question, though: what have you found out or investigated during your research? Have you discovered new theories, opinions, or aspects of your subject? Did anything surprise you, intrigue you, or make you look further? If you answered no to these questions, you did not fulfill the purpose of true research, which is to explore, to discover, and to investigate.

So, should you begin every research project as a disinterested individual without opinions, ideas, and beliefs? Of course not! There is nothing wrong about having opinions, ideas, and beliefs about your subject before beginning the research process. Good researchers and writers are passionate about their work and want to share their passion with the world. Moreover, pre-existing knowledge can be a powerful research-starter. But what separates a true researcher from someone who simply looks for “proofs” for a pre-fabricated thesis is that a true researcher is willing to question those pre-existing beliefs and to take his or her understanding of the research topic well beyond what he or she knew at the outset. Speaking in terms of the process theory of writing, a good researcher and writer is willing to create new meaning, a new understanding of his or her subject through research and writing and based on the ideas and beliefs that he or she had entering the research project.

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• Published: 23 March 2024

An application of AHP and fuzzy entropy-TOPSIS methods to optimize upstream petroleum investment in representative African basins

• Zhihua Cui 1 , 2 ,
• Olusoji Lawrence Taiwo 2 &
• Peace Mawo Aaron 3  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  6956 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

Metrics details

• Economic geology
• Energy and society
• Socioeconomic scenarios
• Sustainability

The growing demand of China for petroleum heightens the complexities and prospects in worldwide investments, necessitating refined and strategic investment approaches. Evaluating the potential of different hydrocarbon-potential areas needs more comprehensive scientific evaluation models. This study aims to establish a Comprehensive Investment Potential of Petroleum (CIPP) framework for targeted sedimentary basins by using an integrated approach that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS models. We focus particularly on representative African basins to inform strategic decision-making for the Chinese overseas petroleum enterprises. We firstly interpret the geological condition of these petroleum basins by researching multiple databases and proprietary research data. Then, we use a combined approach of ranking-classification-correlation analysis to evaluate 17 representative basins, taking into account both overall and individual key performance indicators. Our findings suggest the Illizi Basin and the Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin could be the most favorable for investment and development. Those like Southwest African Basin warrant cautious consideration. The new evaluation model and computational workflow offer an effective workflow for assessing multiple petroleum basins. This work provides not just practical investment strategies for companies aiming for African petroleum basins, but also a transferable methodology for optimizing investment decisions.

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Introduction

As the role of petroleum resources grows in the industrial production of China, the demand has also increased over the years 1 , 2 . Compensating for domestic petroleum production shortfalls makes international upstream investment and development increasingly imperative. Nevertheless, for Chinese enterprises, this investment arena is fraught with multifaceted challenges of considerable complexity 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . Affected by various factors such as geography, economics and politics, optimizing investment strategies have become critically important 6 . Specifically in Africa, the abundance of petroleum resources has attracted investments and developmental efforts from various countries and regions, including China and Western nations 7 . However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive and scientific methodologies for evaluating the exploration and development potential of various African basins. This absence introduces significant uncertainties for similar investors and policymakers. The lack of targeted research and scientific ranking mechanisms often leads to hesitancy among various capital stakeholders when selecting target basins for expansion.

Previous research focus on the evaluation of petroleum resource utilization and associated investment returns 8 . These studies, using a variety of evaluation methodologies, predominantly concentrate on economic dimensions such as risk investment, price volatility and rates of return on capital 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 . However, very few studies offer classification and ranking for specific regional clusters under investigation 17 .

Some research endeavors provide investment risk assessments tailored for individual countries 18 . There are also commendable studies worth noting that focus on downstream refinery-oriented overseas strategic investment 19 . However, these works rarely adopt an all-sided approach to strategic investment risk evaluation by incorporating factors like petroleum geological conditions, development status and socio-political environment. While some research does consider geological conditions, these studies often exhibit a level of simplification in their indicators and dimensions that is inadequate for comprehensive analysis 20 , 21 .

The scarcity of basin-level offshore oil investment evaluations reflects the challenge of accounting for numerous interconnected factors. Compared to assessments at the national level, evaluations at the basin level can take into account more geological conditions related to oil and gas, as these factors are of significant importance. We suggest that, in order to better evaluate the degree of oil and gas investment, replacing the national level with the basin level can highlight the effectiveness of the investment. This approach allows for a greater focus on upstream oil and gas exploration, as the majority of oil and gas reserves remain undeveloped.

Besides, in the realm of upstream petroleum industry investment, some exploratory yet little research has been conducted using various evaluation algorithms within Decision-making Support Systems (DMS) 22 . In contrast, evaluative application research in other domains demonstrates a variety of models that exhibit superior evaluation and classification results when dealing with multi-objective scenarios under complex conditions 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 . The integration of subjective and objective judgments, employing complex algorithms such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Entropy methods, in evaluation techniques is extensively applied 27 , 28 . In the calculation of assessment indicator weights, we have considered a similar method that combines both subjective and objective factors, thereby enabling a comprehensive consideration of the indicator information of the assessment object in the most scientific manner. This model introduces a new method for assessing the overseas oil resource investment environment at the basin level.

The research gap can be identified in the assessment of the upstream oil investment potential of African basins. On one hand, previous studies or evaluation models lack consideration of the factors of oil resource utilization and seldom involve a comprehensive assessment of oil geological conditions, development status, and socio-political environments. Moreover, there is a lack of an optimized mathematical evaluation model for assessing, classifying and ranking all African oil and gas basins, with multidimensional comparisons both across and within dimensions. This presents significant uncertainty and a lack of a macro perspective for oil and gas investors when selecting target basins in the region.

Therefore, there is requirement for studies that concentrate on choosing oil resources from various geographical areas, as there is a noticeable absence of appropriate assessment frameworks specifically designed for this situation. A comprehensive consideration at the basin level, integrating both subjective and objective factors, allows investment strategies to focus more on the inherent potential of oil and gas reserves. The primary objective of this paper is to innovate upon existing comprehensive and complex evaluation models from other fields to assess the investment potential of targeted petroleum regions. This aims to deepen both the research and understanding of basin selection in the petroleum investment field, offering an advanced yet effective evaluation model as a new perspective for fellow researchers and practitioners. Specifically, this study seeks to refine the selection of representative basins in Africa for potential petroleum investment and development, providing a comprehensive evaluation framework for targeted basin clusters. This research can address the research gap by establishing a rational and effective mathematical evaluation model, filling the void of a lack of systematic, multi-level, and multi-dimensional rankings and classification systems for African oil and gas basins that can integrate the attributes of oil and gas resources with economic and social environmental factors.

To achieve this, the study leverages multiple databases and prior research materials to provide an application to evaluate the upstream petroleum investment within African basins: (1) utilize Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive indicator system, (2) use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert scoring and the entropy method to balance subjective and objective evaluations, thereby establishing the weights of various indicators, (3) apply an enhanced Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method for comprehensive ranking and evaluation, (4) classify the evaluation results and (5) include a correlational analysis of internal key performance indicators to further enrich and validate the evaluation results.

Material and analysis

The African continent has a land area of approximately 3.02 × 10 9 km 2 , which includes over 60 petroleum resources. As of the end of 2020, the proven oil reserves of Africa stood at 125.1 billion barrels, accounting for 7.2% of the world's total reserves. Simultaneously, the proven natural gas reserves were estimated at 12.9 trillion cubic meters, constituting approximately 7% of global reserves. Africa ranks third in terms of petroleum reserves.

Although Africa has abundant petroleum reserves, progress in the petroleum and natural gas sectors has been slow. This is due to historical factors, technological limitations and complex political situations. Currently, most exploration and development efforts are focused on the edges of the continent, mainly in the east and west coasts, where resources are highly concentrated. Despite low levels of activity and clear regional imbalances in petroleum exploration and development, the improving political situation in Africa is attracting many global oil companies to the region. This suggests that investment opportunities in African petroleum field are likely to increase.

Data and qualitative analysis

In this study, we primarily rely on the most recently available data up to 2020 from the IHS and Tellus databases, as well as accumulated independent research materials, for our data sources. Specifically, we have carefully selected 17 petroleum basins in Africa that have high investment value as our research sample.

This study applies a multidisciplinary geological analysis framework that has various sub-disciplines including stratigraphy, sedimentology and structural geology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the geological characteristics of the selected 17 petroleum basins. Additionally, we carried out an extensive review, data compilation, and analysis of historical and current exploration activities for each selected basin. This includes confirmed petroleum fields, ongoing exploration projects, as well as regions with future exploration potential. Moreover, we assessed the current development status of each basin, which covers existing development projects and related technological requirements, and conducted quantitative estimations of petroleum reserves based on available data. Beyond geological and engineering considerations, this study further involves a multi-dimensional analysis incorporating political, economic, and cultural factors. Finally, and significantly, we highlight that all indicators are considered to be within an acceptable range, in which they display a proportional relationship, implying that higher values signify either improved or deteriorated outcomes accordingly.

Interpretation and quantitative evaluation

We conducted in-depth interactive survey questionnaires and focused discussions. Based on the compilation and summary of the data and materials, we first carried out a detailed interpretation of the petroleum basin clusters. This deconstruction work was conducted based on multiple factors such as geographical location, petroleum reserves, development difficulty and political stability, aiming to facilitate a more systematic understanding of the characteristics of each basin. Then, upon completing the geological analysis, we employed a standardized scoring system to quantitatively evaluate each basin in terms of stratigraphy, sedimentology and structural geology. This evaluation system was collaboratively developed and aims to provide an objective and comparable method for assessing the geological conditions of each basin. Finally, we collected and organized a large volume of raw data, including information on petroleum reserves, historical records of exploration activities and technological requirements from sources above. This data was carefully sorted and organised for use in the following statistical and computational models, for providing a more precise quantitative assessment of petroleum reserves and development potential.

Classifying indicators

We have exhaustively listed all important indicators and formed a comprehensive set of indicators, establishing classifications between subjective and objective indicators. As shown in Table 1 , for modeling purposes, these subjective indicators are marked as S , while the objective ones are labeled as S&R . We generated subjective evaluation values (1–10) for all indicators. For some indicators with precise objective evaluation values, these subjective values will be combined through subsequent work to ensure the comprehensiveness and depth of this study on evaluation modeling. The principle of classifying these subjective and objective factors is mainly based on whether they have precise numerical data, derived from multiple accessible databases.

Preparation and methods

To comprehensively assess the investment potential in petroleum resources for the 17 representative basins in Africa, this study developed an integrated evaluation model. The model combines three algorithmic methods: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Method and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), forming a comprehensive evaluation workflow (Fig.  1 ). This evaluation system takes into account both subjective factors like expert opinions and objective indicators to provide a more accurate quantification of the investment value for each basin.

Workflow diagram of the whole evaluation process.

Modeling strategy

This study utilizes a multi-dimensional, multi-faceted comprehensive indicator system for evaluation. For international petroleum companies, the assessment of resource potential has considerations of petroleum reserves, exploration status, as well as the availability of local infrastructure support, as indicated in related research 29 .

Following in-depth discussions by our panel of experts, we identified three primary indicators: exploration status, development and production capabilities and local environmental conditions. To further refine these primary indicators, we applied Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) for optimization. The ISM method is capable of decomposing a complex system into multiple key elements and revealing the inherent logical and structural relationships among these elements through matrix operations and topological analysis 17 , 30 . This model offers decision-making support in an intuitive and dynamic manner and excels in comprehensiveness, flexibility and scientific validity. Using this method enables a more comprehensive quantification and comparison of the resource utilization potential across various petroleum basins in Africa.

In this study, we address a complex multi-objective ranking problem, assessing the investment potential in upstream petroleum in African basins across various dimensions. Given the complexity and multidimensionality of this issue, we opted for a combined approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method, aiming to introduce an innovative evaluation framework to the oil and gas investment decision-making domain 31 , 32 . The choice of this methodology is grounded in its proven effectiveness in handling complex decision-making scenarios across diverse fields such as engineering, management and environmental science. AHP facilitates the clarification of the decision-making structure within a multi-tiered framework, allowing for the determination of relative importance of different factors through expert scoring. Meanwhile, the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method leverages objective data to manage uncertainty and fuzziness, thus integrating expert judgment with data objectivity in the final ranking. The advantage of this integrated methodological approach in our research lies in its ability not only to enhance the accuracy and reliability of evaluations but also to provide a fresh perspective and tool for research and practice in the oil and gas investment decision-making field.

Weight calculation

This study cornerstone is constructing a robust evaluation metric system and precisely quantifying each metric's weightage. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) serves as a multi-criteria decision-making approach that facilitates the decomposition of complex issues into more manageable components by constructing a hierarchical model. This method is particularly effective for establishing the relative importance between hierarchical levels through a series of pairwise comparisons 31 , 33 . Herein, AHP is used to prioritize the subjective criteria layer and to determine the top-level weightage for the composite potential index system of petroleum resources. The key point hinges on the incorporation of subjective elements, specifically the expertise and industry experience of a panel of experts with relevant domain knowledge. Through iterative discussions and analyses, these experts collaboratively establish the intra-layer priority sequence for all three layers of indicators, as well as contribute to the definition of evaluation criteria and hierarchical structure.

The Entropy Weight Method is an objective weight-determination technique grounded in Information Theory 34 , 35 , 36 . This method capitalizes on the intrinsic information contained within raw data to minimize the interference of subjective judgments. It accomplishes this by analyzing the dispersion or uncertainty associated with each indicator to ascertain its weight. By integrating objective factors into the subjective elements, this method renders the weight allocation process more rational and scientifically robust. Within the framework of our model, the Entropy Weight Method is to determine the weightage of the middle layer of the indicator system, thereby ensuring both objectivity and accuracy in the evaluation process.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) leverages the insights and experience of experts to establish subjective weightings, while the Entropy Weight Method contributes to the determination of objective weightings. This dual approach ensures the rationality of the evaluation, making the entire assessment process both comprehensive and precise. Sole reliance on either subjective or objective evaluation methods could result in biases stemming from expert preferences or the neglect of valuable experiential insights. The granularity of our indicators incorporates both subjective and objective elements. This amalgamation not only enriches the model with the invaluable expertise of professionals but also objectifies the complexity and scientific rigor of the process. Such a synergistic integration accentuates the unique advantages of our model.

Specific steps for calculating composite weight indicators through the integration of both methods are below:

Construct a hierarchical model and judgment matrix.

Hierarchical model: The model comprises three layers: the Objective Layer (L1), the Criteria Layer (L2), and the Alternative Layer (L3).

Judgment matrix: Use Saaty 1–9 scale method to construct the judgment matrix \(A=({a}_{ij}{)}_{n\times n}\) .

Perform hierarchical single sorting and consistency testing to determine the subjective weights in the analytic hierarchy process.

Data Normalization and Constructing the Normalized Judgment Matrix: \({a}_{ij}=\frac{{a}_{ij}}{\sum_{j=1}^{n} {a}_{ij}},\) where \(i,j=\mathrm{1,2},\dots ,n\) .

Weight Vector: Compute the average sum of the elements in each row of matrix A, i.e., \({w}_{i}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{j=1}^{n} {a}_{ij}\) , , where \([{w}_{1}\dots {w}_{n}{]}^{T}\) , is the desired eigenvector.

Maximum Eigenvalue: Calculate \({\lambda }_{{\text{max}}}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{(A\omega {)}_{i}}{{\omega }_{i}}\) .

Consistency Index: the consistency index of the judgment matrix as \(CI=\frac{{\lambda }_{{\text{max}}}-n}{n-1}\) .

Calculate the Consistency Ratio: Set the Consistency Ratio as \(CR=\frac{CI}{RI}\) , where is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix. A smaller CR indicates better consistency of the matrix.

Perform data standardization and calculate the objective weights of information entropy.

Data standardization: Construct the assessment matrix \(Y=({y}_{ij}{)}_{n\times m}\) and normalize it to \({E}_{ij}=\frac{{y}_{ij}}{\sum_{j=1}^{m} {y}_{ij}}\) .

Information entropy: The value of indicator i is \(H\left(i\right)=-\frac{1}{{\text{ln}}m}\sum_{j=1}^{m} {E}_{ij}{\text{ln}}{E}_{ij}\)

Entropy weight for each indicator: The entropy weight of indicator i can be expressed as \({w}_{i}^{ }=\frac{1-H\left(i\right)}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} \left(1-H\left(i\right)\right)}\) . The final vector of indicator weights obtained through the entropy weight method is \({W}_{i}=\left({w}_{1}^{ },\dots ,{w}_{i}\right)\) .

Calculate composite weights.

Combine subjective and objective weight information from Steps 2 and 3. The calculation formula for composite weights is

\({W}_{j}=\left(\frac{{\alpha }_{j}{\beta }_{j}}{\sum_{j=1}^{n} \sqrt{{\alpha }_{j}{\beta }_{j}}}\right)\) where \({\alpha }_{j}\) and \({\beta }_{j}\) are the subjective and objective weights respectively, and \({W}_{j}\) is the composite weight factor.

Through these steps, this hybrid model allows the combination of subjective and objective assessments to analyze and evaluate complex issues in a consistent and comprehensive manner.

Evaluation model construction

Incorporating the principles of fuzzy evaluation, the model utilizes fuzzy relational calculus to quantify factors that are traditionally non-quantifiable 37 . The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a multi-criteria decision-making method grounded in distance metrics 38 . TOPSIS employs the distance to both the ideal and anti-ideal solutions as criteria for ranking alternative scenarios, thereby revealing their relative merits and demerits 39 , 40 . Conventional TOPSIS methodologies often require a substantial volume of baseline data, with the assessment objective being that the closer an alternative is to the ideal solution, the more likely it is to approach the anti-ideal solution. To address this limitation, the present study employs an enhanced Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to consolidate the foundational data. Subsequent computational steps are executed once the evaluative indicators within the framework of Structural Equation Modeling is definitively established.

Weighted standardized evaluation matrix.

The Z-score, also known as the standard score, serves as a statistical measure that describes the distance of an observed value from the mean of the entire dataset, expressed in units of standard deviation 41 . We transform the initial dataset into Z-scores, which are values that adhere to a standard distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one compared to the raw data. This normalization facilitates more straightforward comparisons across multiple datasets. Standardization is carried out using the Z-score method.

Then, calculate the weighted and normalized assessment matrix \(Q=({q}_{ij}{)}_{p\times q}\) , where \({q}_{ij}={q}_{ij}\cdot {v}_{i}\) and the weights are determined using a specific weight allocation method:

\({a}_{ij}\) is an element in the original assessment matrix.

\({\mu }_{i}\) is the mean of the column i.

\({\sigma }_{j}\) is the standard deviation of the j column.

Positive and negative ideal solutions in exponential form

The exponential calculation method will be used to highlight key or significant indicators in the positive and negative ideal solutions more explicitly, aiming to facilitate more accurate subsequent analysis.

Ideal Positive Solution Q+: For each indicator, select the optimal value from all the alternative options. If the c indicator is of the "the larger, the better" type, choose the maximum value; if it is of the "the smaller, the better" type, opt for the minimum value. Combine these values into a vector to obtain the Ideal Positive Solution.

where the selection of either the maximum or minimum depends on the nature of the criteria.

Ideal Positive Solution Q-: In contrast to the Ideal Positive Solution, the Ideal Negative Solution selects the least desirable value for each criterion. For criteria of the "the larger, the better" type, choose the minimum value; for those of the "the smaller, the better" type, opt for the maximum value. Combine these values into a vector to obtain the Ideal Negative Solution.

Similarly, the choice of maximum or minimum depends on the nature of the criteria.

Grey relational matrix using the improved grey relational formula.

where β is the grey relational resolution coefficient, a positive constant less than 1. It is used to adjust the calculation of grey relational degree, enhancing computational stability and sensitivity. Here, we set it to 0.5.

Grey relational coefficient matrices for the positive and negative ideal solutions using different methods.

3D spatial mapping

To optimize the classification and assessment of petroleum investment potential, we utilize a three-dimensional spatial analysis technique. By switching between various viewpoints, this approach facilitates the most straightforward visualization of the results we aim to achieve, grounded in our evaluative modeling studies. The coordinates for the basin can be ascertained using the following equations:

Three key indicators: Exploration Status (X), Development and Production Status (Y) and Local Environmental Conditions (Z)

Mapped onto the XYZ axes in three-dimensional space:

The coordinates of the basin are determined by the following formula:

where \({\text{X}}_{i} , {\text{Y}}_{i} and {\text{Z}}_{i}\) respectively represent indicators of Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment.

Map the original data of transformation functions ( \({{\varvec{f}}}_{1}\) , \({{\varvec{f}}}_{2}\) , \({{\varvec{f}}}_{3}\) ) to appropriate scales and ranges.

Standard deviation

Classifying data based on Standard Deviation is a commonly employed statistical technique for identifying the variability or dispersion within a dataset 42 , 43 , 44 . This method is frequently used for categorizing or segmenting data to facilitate easier analysis and interpretation. For a one-dimensional dataset X, with a mean μ and standard deviation σ, classification can be conducted using the following equations:

The Lower Bound is defined as \(\mu -\sigma\) , while the Upper Bound is \(\mu +\sigma\) .

In the analysis, we operate under the assumption that higher values within dataset X correspond to better evaluations of CIPP. Consequently, we categorize the data into three classes: "Poor" (below one standard deviation from the mean), "Medium" (within one standard deviation of the mean, either above or below), and "Good" (above one standard deviation from the mean). This classification aims for a visualization that intuitively reflects the distribution of all basins according to CIPP values across three macro-dimensions of focus: Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment. Under any two dimensions of potential interest, we can categorize basins into these three tiers based on calculated results. In a more flexible three-dimensional visualization, we can quickly and selectively identify basins with the characteristics we need.

Spearman rank correlation analysis

Spearman rank correlation analysis serves as a nonparametric statistical approach for assessing the strength and directionality of the relationship between two variables 45 , 46 . This method is particularly well-suited for ordinal data or datasets that do not conform to the assumptions of a normal distribution. It offers a robust framework for evaluating correlations in nonlinear relationships, especially when the data are significantly influenced by outliers. The procedure for implementing this method is outlined as follows:

Data preparation: Ensure two sets of one-dimensional data for comparison: \(X=\{{x}_{1},{x}_{2},\dots ,{x}_{n}\} and Y=\{{y}_{1},{y}_{2},\dots ,{y}_{n}\}\) ;

Data sorting and rank assignment: Sort the two sets of data individually and assign ranks to each data point within their respective datasets. Assign them an average rank when encountering tied values.

Calculating differences: For each pair ( \(x\) , \(y\) ), calculate the rank difference \(d={\text{rank}}(x)-{\text{rank}}(y)\) .

Spearman rank correlation coefficient \(\rho\) :

where \(\sum {d}^{2}\) is the sum of the squares of all rank differences, and \(n\) is the number of observations.

Result analysis: When the value of ρ is − 1 or 1, it indicates a perfect positive or negative correlation between the two variables. When the value of ρ is close to zero, the two variables are nearly uncorrelated. When 0 < ρ < 1, it represents a positive correlation, and when − 1 < ρ < 0, it represents a negative correlation. The value of ρ helps determine the strength and direction of the correlation between the two sets of data.

Establish hierarchical indicator system

The task of identifying and deconstructing critical factors that influence the potential of petroleum resources holds crucial importance. We carefully deconstructed and ranked these factors, culminating in a final framework.

Factors affecting the potential of petroleum resources appear in our deconstructive model as three distinct tiers (Fig.  2 ). The first tier (L1) primarily encompasses foundational elements such as exploration status, resource potential, exploration progress, development and production, and local environmental conditions. These elements serve as the foundation for petroleum resource potential. The second tier (L2) delves into more specific intermediate factors like basic petroleum geological conditions, proven reserves, well density, development conditions, production conditions, resource utilization environment, and investment climate. These factors exert an indirect influence based on the foundational elements. The third tier (L3) further refines the factors from the second tier, including 32 high-level strategic elements such as source rock conditions, reservoir conditions, cap rock, and preservation conditions (Table 1 ). These elements wield decisive influence over the ultimate realization of petroleum resource potential.

Three-layer decomposition schematic of the evaluation system for CIPP.

This three-tiered analysis enables a comprehensive understanding of the complex structure and interrelationships affecting the potential for petroleum exploration. It offers robust support for further strategic planning and decision-making. The factors in each tier have been carefully selected and categorized through iterative discussions among the expert panel to ensure a holistic reflection of the multifaceted influences on petroleum resource potential. This integrated analytical approach highlights the interplay among multiple tiers of factors, revealing a complex system of influences on petroleum resource potential and providing robust theoretical support for a deeper understanding of the subject.

Develop indicator weights

To quantify the progress of various petroleum basins in terms of investable development, we adopted a series of explicit evaluation criteria and data collection methods. The potential among different petroleum basins in Africa exhibits significant disparities. Notably, basins along the East and West coasts demonstrate higher investable development potential. For this analysis, we specifically selected 17 highly representative petroleum basins as subjects of study and utilized the most recent data from the year 2020. We applied data analysis using Python 3.0 (numpy, pandas, matplotlib etc.) to determine the weightings of various indicators. This weighting system integrates both subjective and objective factors to more comprehensively assess the performance potential of each petroleum basin.

The analysis results indicate that in the first-tier indicators (L1), CIPP primarily reflects investment potential from multiple angles, focusing on three aspects: Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment. Particularly for Exploration Status, due to its reflection of petroleum reserves and development potential, it received appropriate emphasis in the weight distribution. In the second-tier indicators, the impact of Exploration Progress is most significant, with a weight of 0.314. This underscores the crucial role that petroleum reserves and exploration clarity play in investment funding. The weight distribution for other indicators is detailed in the table. Through the structured three-tier model based on CIPP, a clear combination of subjective and objective weight distribution provides a comprehensive and quantitative assessment method for considering the strategic level of transnational overseas petroleum investments.

Evaluation results

After the model analysis, we calculated the composite evaluation results for 17 key and representative basins (Table 2 and Fig.  3 ). We quantified various aspects of the petroleum development potential of these basins through a specific assessment model, including their strengths and weaknesses. This data reveals the comprehensive investment potential in petroleum resources for each basin, as well as their potential values in Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment.

Evaluation results of 17 representative petroleum basins: ( a ) three-dimensional plotting and ranking based on three L1 indicators as axes. ( b ) Bar chart of the assessment values for all basins, indicating one L0 and three L1 assessment values.

In the comprehensive analysis of petroleum basin investment potential in this study, we applied an in-depth quantitative assessment using two main discount indicators, i.e., L0 and L1, along with three sub-indicators (Exploration Status, Development and Production, Local Environment). The three-dimensional visualization (Fig.  3 a) better illustrates the distribution of these basins at the L0 level. It is evident that the point aggregation is very low, indicating significant variability among the three indicators. From the overall trend analysis (Fig.  3 b), the disparity among the three indicators across different basins is particularly large, leading to a significant difference in their overall potential. Specifically, the "llizi Basin" and "Nile Delta Basin" have L0 and L1 significantly outperform other basins and demonstrate their strong investment potential. However, the "Southwest African Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" rank last, suggesting their lower investment value potential. On the L0 and L1 indicators, the "llizi Basin" and "Nile Delta Basin" performed best, while the "Southwest African Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" scored the lowest. At the L1 level, the "Timimoun Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" performed best in Exploration Status. The "Pelagian Basin" and "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin" scored highest in Development and Production and Local Environment.

Classification

We further classified the basins, initially classifying them based on three indicators. Utilizing the classification method based on Standard Deviation, we divided each basin into four levels across these three distinct indicators. These four levels respectively represent excellence in all three indicators, followed by the next two, one, and none.

The classification results indicate that for "Exploration Status," both the "Nile Delta Basin" and "llizi Basin" are rated as "Good," while the "Kwanza Basin," "Offshore Gabon Basin," and "Southwest African Basin" are categorized as "Poor" (Fig.  4 ). In terms of "Development and Production," the "llizi Basin," "Timimoun Basin," "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin," "Kwanza Basin," and "Offshore Gabon Basin" received "Good" ratings. As for "Local Environment," the "Pelagian Basin," "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin," and "Mozambique Basin" performed best, in contrast to the "Sirt Basin," "Murzug Basin," "Niger Delta Basin," "Offshore Tanzania Basin," and "Southwest African Basin," which showed poorer performance on this indicator.

Classification results: ( a ) classification on the 3D plot based on the analysis of evaluation values and subsequent classification using the standard deviation model. ( b ) Basin classification on the axes of exploration status vs development and production. ( c ) Basin classification on the axes of exploration status vs development and production and local environment. ( d ) Basin classification on the axes of development and production and local environment.

The CIPP evaluation model framework provides a multi-tiered classification method, allowing petroleum investors and decision-makers to more accurately identify various investment opportunities and risks at the basin level. Since none of the selected representative investable basins fall into Type I, the classification for Categories II to IV is as follows:

Type II Basins (Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin): These basins typically exhibit significant advantages in resource exploration and development production. In such cases, investors may consider these basins as medium-to-long-term investment targets. Due to their strong performance in two key indicators, these basins have a higher probability of success and potential returns. However, as there is room for improvement in the third aspect (usually local environmental adaptation), investors may need additional environmental and social responsibility plans to ensure the sustainability of the projects.

Type III Basins (Nile Delta Basin, Pelagian Basin, Timimoun Basin, Kwanza Basin, Offshore Gabon Basin, Somali Basin and Mozambique Basin): These basins exhibit higher levels of risk and uncertainty. They typically excel in only one aspect while performing moderately in the other two. This implies that investors should exercise greater caution in their investment decisions and may require additional research and risk mitigation measures. For instance, if a Type III basin shows strong performance in resource exploration but is mediocre in development production and environmental adaptability, investors may need to allocate additional technical and capital resources to improve these two aspects.

Type IV Basins (Red Sea Basin, Suez Basin, Sirt Basin, Murzuq Basin, Niger Delta Basin, Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin): These are generally not ideal investment targets. These basins perform poorly across all considered factors and typically require comprehensive strategic adjustments, including improvements in exploration techniques, optimization of production processes, and enhanced environmental protection measures. Therefore, unless there are compelling reasons and preparations for large-scale reforms and investments, these basins should generally be avoided for investment.

Correlation analysis

Conducting a Spearman correlation analysis between these three key indicators can be crucial for understanding their interrelationships and optimizing resource management and policy decisions. Based on Fig.  5 a, the correlation between "Exploration Status" and "Local Environment" is relatively weak. Figure  5 b reveals a moderate positive correlation between "Exploration Status" and "Development and Production". Importantly, this result is highly statistically significant, with a p-value of merely 0.001. This suggests that basins ranking high in Exploration Status often also rank high in Development and Production. Lastly, according to Fig.  5 c, a moderate positive correlation exists between "Development and Production" and "Local Environment". This implies that basins selected for development and production often also perform well in local environmental aspects, although this positive correlation is not strong. Overall, these findings suggest a notable positive correlation between Exploration Status and Development and Production, while the association with Local Environment is comparatively weaker.

Correlation analysis with any two of the three indicators as axes: ( a ) exploration status vs development and local environment and ( b ) exploration status vs development and production, both show low correlation due to high dispersion. ( c ) Development and production vs local environment shows a certain level of correlation.

This study produces an evaluation system based on an Interpretive Structural Model to form the CIPP to assess comprehensive petroleum investment potential. This workflow integrates factors from petroleum geology as well as political, economic and cultural dimensions, adapting complex models commonly used in other fields for this assessment. In doing so, it fills a research gap in the field of transnational petroleum investment at basin level, elevating the focus beyond the primarily economic aspects that have dominated past research in this area (e.g., 11 , 12 , 15 , 30 ).

The study primarily innovates by quantitatively assessing 17 representative African oil basins through an integrated evaluation model, aiming to identify and compare the differences among these basins in terms of oil resource exploration, development potential, and their investment attractiveness. By applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight Method, and Fuzzy TOPSIS technique, the research constructs a comprehensive evaluation system to quantitatively analyze each CIPP of each basin in the three aspects of Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment.

The results suggest that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are highly favorable for investment and development in petroleum resource exploration, particularly for various enterprises including those from China. This attractiveness is not solely based on abundant petroleum resources and favorable infrastructure, but also takes into account political and economic stability. However, basins such as the Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin are assessed as options that require very cautious consideration for investment. They rank low on a comprehensive level, and their limitations are not confined to just one aspect. This approach can assist Chinese or other oil and gas companies in gaining a clearer understanding at the basin level when investing in upstream oil and gas in Africa.

The optimal outcome of this ranking aligns closely with our professional opinion, which is derived from extensive experience and based on thorough investigation and analysis of a significant amount of expert outcomes. We believe that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are the most favorable regions at the basin level for investment and development by Chinese oil and gas enterprises, based on our comprehensive assessment. These basins have been in a state of global oil and gas investment for some time, and they have relatively well-developed infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. With effort, we can successfully secure a share of the benefits. However, regarding the Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin, and Southwest African Basin, although they may have considerable oil and gas reserves, the local development environment is relatively harsh, and the political risks and investment climate are also a matter for concern. Therefore, the model analysis fits our manual interpretation with a highly cautious approach to these regions.

This study categorizes 17 African oil basins into four levels based on Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment, using the standard deviation method. This classification aids investors and decision-makers in pinpointing specific investment opportunities and assessing potential risks. Basins are ranked from those excelling in all three indicators (Type II), indicating highest investment value, to those needing improvement (Type III), and those performing poorly (Type IV), reflecting varying investment appeal and development potential. Moreover, Spearman rank correlation analysis shows a moderate positive correlation between Exploration Status and Development and Production, with a weaker correlation to Local Environment. This highlights the importance of exploration status as a predictive indicator for a basin development potential but also underscores the necessity of considering a wide range of factors for comprehensive investment decisions. This approach assists in more precise resource allocation and risk management for oil and gas investments in Africa.

This study enhances the ranking of oil and gas exploration potential across various African basins and includes detailed dimensional rankings as well as comparisons between dimensions of the same level. This aspect, even for global petroleum investment field, was absent in previous studies 8 , 9 , 10 , which were primarily limited to the financial investment dimension 16 , lacking consideration of the oil and gas geological aspects of basins and downstream infrastructure levels. Furthermore, complex decision-making models have rarely been applied to such oil and gas investments before 23 , 24 . Our research, while differing slightly in analysis details and incorporating a greater number of parameters for evaluation and classification compared to similar algorithms in other domains, effectively aids in prioritizing decision analysis objectives related to complexity 27 , 28 . The application of this model provides a very good example of integration with actual investment behaviors, serving as a reference for similar decision-making fields or inspiring research on similar model applications.

This approach enhances decision accuracy, addresses uncertainty and yields clear, interpretable results, ultimately facilitating more effective decision-making. This advanced approach contributes to the algorithm advancement by handling complexity, enhances its transferability to various contexts, as well as improves its applicability in decision-making across industries and regions. More importantly, we can evaluate the ranking of each basin in-depth based on different sub-indicators and then determine the priority situation.

This modeling methodology focuses on assessing the petroleum investment potential of oil and gas basins, leveraging the practical experience of Chinese enterprises in overseas investments, specifically tailored for Africa due to its unique complexity in the mentioned aspects. Cross-regional comparisons, such as with basins in the Middle East and South America, are not considered within the framework of this model. For evaluations of specific basin groups, indicators with high commonality could be excluded in favor of new indicators with greater heterogeneity, integrating human interpretation with actual data to recalibrate weights. This model emphasizes the amalgamation of subjective and objective assessments in indicator ranking, innovatively influencing weight calculations to effectively integrate both evaluations comprehensively, departing from traditional segregations of subjective and objective metrics.

This evaluation system provides a practical application for a novel combined method for assessing petroleum basins in Africa. By classifying and quantitatively scoring these basins, petroleum investment companies can not only gain a more accurate understanding of the specific strengths and weaknesses of each basin but also systematically evaluate their potential risks and returns. The workflow is based on complex evaluation model methods that have already seen deep application in other fields 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 . This adaptation can be considered a significant contribution to the upstream petroleum resource investment.

Additionally, the classification and correlation work enrich the content of this comprehensive evaluation system. The results of the correlation study indicate that the three classification indicators, namely "Exploration Status," "Local Environment," and "Development and Production," exhibit certain interdependencies. Specifically, the first two show a moderate positive correlation, while the latter two are also related. This suggests that in petroleum basins with weak petroleum reserves but high exploration potential, there is already significant involvement from international petroleum companies, or the local government is likely to give it adequate attention.

While this study effectively evaluates petroleum basin investment potential, it also highlights limitations for future research to address. First, the current evaluation metrics need refinement to better capture the complexities of investment decisions, especially when considering multiple factors like economics and environment. Additional data, such as geological findings and market demand, should be included. Second, our model for assessing CIPP has limitations, notably in interpreting indicators such as exploration well density and success rate for example. High values do not always mean high potential, primarily due to deviations at extremely high or low data levels from the expectations of this study. Within a reasonable range (all indicators apply herein), these values demonstrate a proportional relationship, and we assume that no indicator experiences excessive conditions. Third, advanced data analytics like big data and AI should be used to improve the accuracy of investment and risk forecasts.

Lastly, robust model validation is essential to minimize biases and provide a stable basis for decision-making. Given the subjective elements involved in the evaluation process, there is a potential for bias in the presented results. However, it is important to note that our qualitative ranking of subjective interpretations relies on a thorough understanding of local contexts, strong domain expertise, and extensive discussions followed by multiple rounds of sorting and comparison to mitigate errors. To further mitigate bias, we propose several measures for future work. These include incorporating independent data sources for cross-validation, implementing expert blind review or expert validation panels, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty, conducting sensitivity analyses, and validating results through comparative case studies, among other methods. These steps will enhance the reliability of investment strategies in the field of petroleum exploration and development.

This research aids China and other countries in deepening the analysis and planning of social policies related to African oil and gas investment decisions. Rationalizing Africa's oil and gas investments is crucial for enhancing energy security, advancing the Belt and Road Initiative, and strengthening Sino-African economic and political ties. Such investments not only boost China's diplomatic influence in Africa through deepened energy cooperation and solidifying friendly relations with African nations but also support China's global diplomatic policies. For African countries, rational oil and gas investments significantly spur local economic development and job creation, especially in oil and gas development and infrastructure. Moreover, improving infrastructure not only fosters African economic growth and enhances the living standards of the local population but also contributes to sustainable development goals. In the long term, Sino-African energy cooperation is expected to create a mutually beneficial situation, strengthening economic collaboration between both sides and promoting global energy market stability and development.

This study applies a complex evaluation model to explore previously uncharted territories in transnational petroleum investment, focusing on target asset evaluation, classification and ranking. This work breaks new ground in terms of research scope, methodological transferability and model innovation. The key highlighted points of this work include:

The results suggest that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are highly favorable for investment and development in petroleum resource exploration, particularly for various enterprises including those from China. However, basins such as the Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin require very cautious consideration for investment due to their lower comprehensive potential.

This study produces an evaluation system based on an Interpretive Structural Model to assess comprehensive petroleum investment potential. The integrated evaluation model combining AHP, entropy method and fuzzy TOPSIS provides an effective and practical application model to quantify the investment potential of complex petroleum basins.

The combination of objective and subjective weighting methods renders the entire evaluation process more balanced. The classification approach reveals the relative strengths and weaknesses of different basin types, aiding investment decision-making.

A moderate positive correlation exists between exploration status and development/production potential for the basins. The classification and correlation work enrich the content of this comprehensive evaluation system.

Adaptation of complex evaluation models from other fields helps address the gap in comprehensive petroleum investment assessments.

The workflow offers strategic insights and an advanced methodology for optimizing investment decisions across industries.

This research supports China and other countries in enhancing social policy planning related to African oil and gas investments, crucial for energy security, the Belt and Road Initiative and Sino-African relations, fostering mutual economic growth, sustainable development and global energy stability.

Data availability

For reasons related to confidentiality, certain source code and interpreted data cannot be made publicly available in their entirety. If you require access, kindly reach out to the corresponding author via email. Selected important analysis data have been included in the related files.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank IHS Markit and Tellus for providing access to their oil and gas databases. Special thanks to China ZhenHua Oil Co., Ltd. for data support and to Zhejiang University for technique support.

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School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo, China

Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

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Zhihua Cui was responsible for the establishment of the model, manual interpretation and scoring, and manuscript writing. Olusoji Lawrence Taiwo participated in the establishment and validation of the model and polished the logic of the paper. Peace Mawo Aaron participated in manual interpretation and scoring, model validation, manuscript writing and polishing.

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Enhanced degradation of Direct Red 80 dye via Fenton-like process mediated by cobalt ferrite: generated superoxide radicals and singlet oxygen

• Research Article
• Published: 25 March 2024

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• Gessica do Carmo Dias 1 ,
• Noemi Cristina Silva de Souza 1 ,
• Eduardo Israel Pimenta de Souza 1 ,
• Gustavo Alves Puiatti 2 &
• Renata Pereira Lopes Moreira 1  

Azo dyes, widely used in the textile industry, contribute to effluents with significant organic content. Therefore, the aim of this work was to synthesize cobalt ferrite (CoFe 2 O 4 ) using the combustion method and assess its efficacy in degrading the azo dye Direct Red 80 (DR80). TEM showed a spherical structure with an average size of 33 ± 12 nm. Selected area electron diffraction and XRD confirmed the presence of characteristic crystalline planes specific to CoFe 2 O 4 . The amount of Co and Fe metals were determined by ICP-OES, indicating an n(Fe)/n(Co) ratio of 2.02. FTIR exhibited distinct bands corresponding to Co–O (455 cm −1 ) and Fe–O (523 cm −1 ) bonds. Raman spectroscopy detected peaks associated with octahedral and tetrahedral sites. For the first time, the material was applied to degrade DR80 in an aqueous system, with the addition of persulfate. Consistently, within 60 min, these trials achieved nearly 100% removal of DR80, even after the material had undergone five cycles of reuse. The pseudo-second-order model was found to be the most fitting model for the experimental data ( k 2  = 0.07007 L mg −1  min −1 ). The results strongly suggest that degradation primarily occurred via superoxide radicals and singlet oxygen. Furthermore, the presence of UV light considerably accelerated the degradation process ( k 2  = 1.54093 L mg −1  min −1 ). The material was applied in a synthetic effluent containing various ions, and its performance consistently approached 100% in the photo-Fenton system. Finally, two degradation byproducts were identified through HPLC–MS/MS analysis.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Fundação Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brazil (CAPES), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, Process 312400/2021-7 and Process: 405828/2022-5), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG, RED-00144-22), Departments of Chemistry and Physics of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Microscopy Center at the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais ( http://www.microscopy.ufmg.br ) and Spectrometry, sample preparation and mechanization group at the Universidade Estadual de Campinas ( https://gepam.iqm.unicamp.br/facilid_tit1.htm ) for providing equipment and technical support. The authors would also like to thank professors Robson Ricardo Teixeira and Kássio Ferreira Mendes and Dr. Mariana Beatriz Teixeira Diniz for elucidating the degradation byproducts by HPLC-MS/MS.

This work was supported by Fundação Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brazil (CAPES), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, Process 312400/2021–7 and Process: 405828/2022–5), and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG, RED-00144–22).

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Gessica do Carmo Dias, Noemi Cristina Silva de Souza, Eduardo Israel Pimenta de Souza & Renata Pereira Lopes Moreira

Department of Civil Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Av. Peter Henry Rolfs, S/N, Campus Universitário, Viçosa, MG, 36570-900, Brazil

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Carmo Dias: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, formal analysis, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing; Gustavo Alves Puiatti: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis; Noemi Cristina Silva de Souza: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis; Eduardo Israel Pimenta de Souza: investigation; Renata Pereira Lopes: conceptualization, methodology, resources, funding acquisition, investigation, formal analysis, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing, supervision.

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• Cobalt ferrite was used to degrade DR80 through Fenton-like process.

• In the presence of UV light, the reaction reaches 100% degradation in less than 1 min.

• The degradation demonstrated versatility across a wide pH range.

• The material can be easily removed by magnetization and reused in various cycles.

• The main degradation species involve the radicals 1 O 2 and O 2 •– .

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do Carmo Dias, G., de Souza, N.C.S., de Souza, E.I.P. et al. Enhanced degradation of Direct Red 80 dye via Fenton-like process mediated by cobalt ferrite: generated superoxide radicals and singlet oxygen. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32976-w

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Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

Earth-orbiting satellites and new technologies have helped scientists see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate all over the world. These data, collected over many years, reveal the signs and patterns of a changing climate.

Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century. 2 Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response.

"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal." — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age. 3

The Evidence for Rapid Climate Change Is Compelling:

Global temperature is rising.

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities. 4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record. 5

The Ocean Is Getting Warmer

The ocean has absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 100 meters (about 328 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.67 degrees Fahrenheit (0.33 degrees Celsius) since 1969. 6 Earth stores 90% of the extra energy in the ocean.

The Ice Sheets Are Shrinking

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year. 7

Glaciers Are Retreating

Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa. 8

Snow Cover Is Decreasing

Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and the snow is melting earlier. 9

Sea Level Is Rising

Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly every year. 10

Arctic Sea Ice Is Declining

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. 11

Extreme Events Are Increasing in Frequency

The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events. 12

Ocean Acidification Is Increasing

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30%. 13 , 14 This increase is due to humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the ocean. The ocean has absorbed between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades (7.2 to 10.8 billion metric tons per year). 1 5 , 16

1. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, WGI, Technical Summary . B.D. Santer et.al., “A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.” Nature 382 (04 July 1996): 39-46. https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0. Gabriele C. Hegerl et al., “Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method.” Journal of Climate 9 (October 1996): 2281-2306. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:DGGICC>2.0.CO;2. V. Ramaswamy, et al., “Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling.” Science 311 (24 February 2006): 1138-1141. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122587. B.D. Santer et al., “Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes.” Science 301 (25 July 2003): 479-483. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084123. T. Westerhold et al., "An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years." Science 369 (11 Sept. 2020): 1383-1387. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1094123

2. In 1824, Joseph Fourier calculated that an Earth-sized planet, at our distance from the Sun, ought to be much colder. He suggested something in the atmosphere must be acting like an insulating blanket. In 1856, Eunice Foote discovered that blanket, showing that carbon dioxide and water vapor in Earth's atmosphere trap escaping infrared (heat) radiation. In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized Earth's natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956.

3. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, WG1, Chapter 2 Vostok ice core data; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record O. Gaffney, W. Steffen, "The Anthropocene Equation." The Anthropocene Review 4, issue 1 (April 2017): 53-61. https://doi.org/abs/10.1177/2053019616688022.

4. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

5. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/

6. S. Levitus, J. Antonov, T. Boyer, O Baranova, H. Garcia, R. Locarnini, A. Mishonov, J. Reagan, D. Seidov, E. Yarosh, M. Zweng, " NCEI ocean heat content, temperature anomalies, salinity anomalies, thermosteric sea level anomalies, halosteric sea level anomalies, and total steric sea level anomalies from 1955 to present calculated from in situ oceanographic subsurface profile data (NCEI Accession 0164586), Version 4.4. (2017) NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index3.html K. von Schuckmann, L. Cheng, L,. D. Palmer, J. Hansen, C. Tassone, V. Aich, S. Adusumilli, H. Beltrami, H., T. Boyer, F. Cuesta-Valero, D. Desbruyeres, C. Domingues, A. Garcia-Garcia, P. Gentine, J. Gilson, M. Gorfer, L. Haimberger, M. Ishii, M., G. Johnson, R. Killick, B. King, G. Kirchengast, N. Kolodziejczyk, J. Lyman, B. Marzeion, M. Mayer, M. Monier, D. Monselesan, S. Purkey, D. Roemmich, A. Schweiger, S. Seneviratne, A. Shepherd, D. Slater, A. Steiner, F. Straneo, M.L. Timmermans, S. Wijffels. "Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?" Earth System Science Data 12, Issue 3 (07 September 2020): 2013-2041. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020.

7. I. Velicogna, Yara Mohajerani, A. Geruo, F. Landerer, J. Mouginot, B. Noel, E. Rignot, T. Sutterly, M. van den Broeke, M. Wessem, D. Wiese, "Continuity of Ice Sheet Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica From the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Missions." Geophysical Research Letters 47, Issue 8 (28 April 2020): e2020GL087291. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087291.

8. National Snow and Ice Data Center World Glacier Monitoring Service

9. National Snow and Ice Data Center D.A. Robinson, D. K. Hall, and T. L. Mote, "MEaSUREs Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Snow Cover Extent Daily 25km EASE-Grid 2.0, Version 1 (2017). Boulder, Colorado USA. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center. doi: https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/CRYOSPHERE/nsidc-0530.001 . http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/snow_extent.html Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Data History

10. R.S. Nerem, B.D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B.D. Hamlington, D. Masters, and G.T. Mitchum, "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era." PNAS 15, no. 9 (12 Feb. 2018): 2022-2025. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115.

11. https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/projections-of-an-ice-diminished-arctic-ocean/

12. USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, https://doi.org/10.7930/j0j964j6 .

13. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

14. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification

15. C.L. Sabine, et al., “The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2.” Science 305 (16 July 2004): 367-371. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403.

16. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate , Technical Summary, Chapter TS.5, Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities, Section 5.2.2.3. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/technical-summary/

Header image shows clouds imitating mountains as the sun sets after midnight as seen from Denali's backcountry Unit 13 on June 14, 2019. Credit: NPS/Emily Mesner

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