rpl investment thesis

Rocket Pool Thesis

A collection of analysis on Rocket Pool and RPL's value.

Revenue Estimator

A speculative tool to help estimate Rocket Pool node operator rewards.

This is not financial advice and you should follow up with your own research.

• Node Requirement: 16 ETH + minimum collateral of 1.6 ETH worth of RPL (10%)
• Max collateral is 24 ETH worth of RPL per node (150%)
• More RPL collateral results in higher RPL staking rewards
• ETH staking rewards on your 16 ETH
• ETH commission (5% minimum) on the 16 ETH staking pool
• RPL staking rewards on your RPL collateral
• Staking pool commission is variable (5-20%) set by the protocol

• Search Search Please fill out this field.

What Is an Investment Thesis?

• Understanding the Thesis

Special Considerations

• What's Included?

The Bottom Line

• Portfolio Management

Investment Thesis: An Argument in Support of Investing Decisions

Charlene Rhinehart is a CPA , CFE, chair of an Illinois CPA Society committee, and has a degree in accounting and finance from DePaul University.

The term investment thesis refers to a reasoned argument for a particular investment strategy, backed up by research and analysis. Investment theses are commonly prepared by (and for) individual investors and businesses. These formal written documents may be prepared by analysts or other financial professionals for presentation to their clients.

Key Takeaways

• An investment thesis is a written document that recommends a new investment, based on research and analysis of its potential for profit.
• Individual investors can use this technique to investigate and select investments that meet their goals.
• Financial professionals use the investment thesis to pitch their ideas.

Understanding the Investment Thesis

As noted above, an investment thesis is a written document that provides information about a potential investment. It is a research- and analysis-based proposal that is usually drafted by an investment or financial professional to provide insight into investments and to pitch investment ideas. In some cases, the investor will draft their own investment thesis, as is the case with venture capitalists and private equity firms.

This thesis can be used as a strategic decision-making tool. Investors and companies can use a thesis to decide whether or not to pursue a particular investment, such as a stock or acquiring another company. Or it can be used as a way to look back and analyze why a particular decision was made in the first place—and whether it was the right one. Putting things in writing can have a huge impact on the direction of a potential investment.

Let's say an investor purchases a stock based on the investment thesis that the stock is undervalued . The thesis states that the investor plans to hold the stock for three years, during which its price will rise to reflect its true worth. At that point, the stock will be sold at a profit. A year later, the stock market crashes, and the investor's pick crashes with it. The investor recalls the investment thesis, relies on the integrity of its conclusions, and continues to hold the stock.

That is a sound strategy unless some event that is totally unexpected and entirely absent from the investment thesis occurs. Examples of these might include the 2007-2008 financial crisis or the Brexit vote that forced the United Kingdom out of the European Union (EU) in 2016. These were highly unexpected events, and they might affect someone's investment thesis.

If you think your investment thesis holds up, stick with it through thick and thin.

An investment thesis is generally formally documented, but there are no universal standards for the contents. Some require fast action and are not elaborate compositions. When a thesis concerns a big trend, such as a global macro perspective, the investment thesis may be well documented and might even include a fair amount of promotional materials for presentation to potential investing partners.

Portfolio management is now a science-based discipline, not unlike engineering or medicine. As in those fields, breakthroughs in basic theory, technology, and market structures continuously translate into improvements in products and in professional practices. The investment thesis has been strengthened with qualitative and quantitative methods that are now widely accepted.

As with any thesis, an idea may surface but it is methodical research that takes it from an abstract concept to a recommendation for action. In the world of investments, the thesis serves as a game plan.

What's Included in an Investment Thesis?

Although there's no industry standard, there are usually some common components to this document. Remember, an investment thesis is generally a proposal that is based on research and analysis. As such, it is meant to be a guide about the viability of a particular investment.

Most investment theses include (but aren't limited to) the following information:

• The investment in question
• The investment goal(s)
• Viability of the investment, including any trends that support the investment
• Potential downsides and risks that may be associated with the investment
• Costs and potential returns as well as any losses that may result

Some theses also try to answer some key questions, including:

• Does the investment align with the intended goal(s)?
• What could go wrong?
• What do the financial statements say?
• What is the growth potential of this investment?

Putting everything in writing can help investors make more informed decisions. For instance, a company's management team can use a thesis to decide whether or not to pursue the acquisition of a rival. The thesis may highlight whether the target's vision aligns with the acquirer or it may identify opportunities for growth in the market.

Keep in mind that the complexity of an investment thesis depends on the type of investor involved and the nature of the investment. So the investment thesis for a corporation looking to acquire a rival may be more in-depth and complicated compared to that of an individual investor who wants to develop an investment portfolio.

Examples of an Investment Thesis

Portfolio managers and investment companies often post information about their investment theses on their websites. The following are just two examples.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley ( MS ) is one of the world's leading financial services firms. It offers investment management services, investment banking, securities, and wealth management services. According to the company, it has five steps that make up its investment process, including idea generation, quality assessment, valuation, risk management , and portfolio construction.

When it comes to developing its investment thesis, the company tries to answer three questions as part of its quality assessment step:

• "Is the company a disruptor or is it insulated from disruptive change? 
• Does the company demonstrate financial strength with high returns on invested capital, high margins, strong cash conversion, low capital intensity and low leverage? 
• Are there environmental or social externalities not borne by the company, or governance and accounting risks that may alter the investment thesis?"

Connetic Ventures

Connetic Adventures is a venture capital firm that invests in early-stage companies. The company uses data to develop its investment thesis, which is made up of three pillars. According to its blog, there were three pillars or principles that contributed to Connetic's venture capital investment strategy. These included diversification, value, and follow-on—each of which comes with a pro and con.

Why Is an Investment Thesis Important?

An investment thesis is a written proposal or research-based analysis of why investors or companies should pursue an investment. In some cases, it may also serve as a historical guide as to whether the investment was a good move or not. Whatever the reason, an investment thesis allows investors to make better, more informed decisions about whether to put their money into a specific investment. This written document provides insight into what the investment is, the goals of the investment, any associated costs, the potential for returns, as well as any possible risks and losses that may result.

Who Should Have an Investment Thesis?

An investment thesis is important for anyone who wants to invest their money. Individual investors can use a thesis to decide whether to purchase stock in a particular company and what strategy they should use, whether it's a buy-and-hold strategy or one where they only have the stock for a short period of time. A company can craft its own investment thesis to help weigh out whether an acquisition or growth strategy is worthwhile.

How Do You Create an Investment Thesis?

It's important to put your investment thesis in writing. Seeing your proposal in print can help you make a better decision. When you're writing your investment thesis, be sure to be clear and concise. Make sure you do your research and include any facts and figures that can help you make your decision. Be sure to include your goals, the potential for upside, and any risks that you may come across. Try to ask and answer some key questions, including whether the investment meets your investment goals and what could go wrong if you go ahead with the deal.

It's always important to have a plan, especially when it comes to investing. After all, you are putting your money at risk. Having an investment thesis can help you make more informed decisions about whether a potential investment is worth your while. Make sure you put your thesis in writing and answer some key questions about your goals, costs, and potential outcomes. Having a concrete proposal in place can spell the difference between earning returns and losing all your money. And that's if your thesis supports the investment in the first place.

Harvard Business School. " Writing a Credible Investment Thesis ."

Lanturn. " What is an Investment Thesis and 3 Tips to Make One ."

Morgan Stanley. " Global Opportunity ."

Medium. " The Data That Built Our Fund's Investment Thesis ."

• Terms of Service
• Editorial Policy
• Privacy Policy

Popular Searches

Your previous searches, recently visited pages.

Content added to Red Folder

Removed from Red Folder

Writing a Credible Investment Thesis

Only a third of acquiring executives actually write down the reasons for doing a deal.

By David Harding and Sam Rovit

• November 15, 2004

Every deal your company proposes to do—big or small, strategic or tactical—should start with a clear statement how that particular deal would create value for your company. We call this the investment thesis. The investment thesis is no more or less than a definitive statement, based on a clear understanding of how money is made in your business, that outlines how adding this particular business to your portfolio will make your company more valuable. Many of the best acquirers write out their investment theses in black and white. Joe Trustey, managing partner of private equity and venture capital firm Summit Partners, describes the tool in one short sentence: "It tells me why I would want to own this business."

Perhaps you're rolling your eyes and saying to yourself, "Well, of course our company uses an investment thesis!" But unless you're in the private equity business—which in our experience is more disciplined in crafting investment theses than are corporate buyers—the odds aren't with you. For example, our survey of 250 senior executives across all industries revealed that only 29% of acquiring executives started out with an investment thesis (defined in that survey as a "sound reason for buying a company") that stood the test of time. More than 40% had no investment thesis whatsoever (!). Of those who did, fully half discovered within three years of closing the deal that their thesis was wrong.

Studies conducted by other firms support the conclusion that most companies are terrifyingly unclear about why they spend their shareholders' capital on acquisitions. A 2002 Accenture study, for example, found that 83% of executives surveyed admitted they were unable to distinguish between the value levers of M&A deals. In Booz Allen Hamilton's 1999 review of thirty-four frequent acquirers, which focused chiefly on integration, unsuccessful acquirers admitted that they fished in uncharted waters. They ranked "learning about new (and potentially related) business areas" as a top reason for making an acquisition. (Surely companies should know whether a business area is related to their core before they decide to buy into it!) Successful acquirers, by contrast, were more likely to cite "leading or responding to industry restructuring" as a reason for making an acquisition, suggesting that these companies had at least thought through the strategic implications of their moves.

Not that tipping one's hat to strategy is a cure-all. In our work with companies that are thinking about doing a deal, we often hear that the acquisition is intended for "strategic" reasons. That's simply not good enough. A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value.

A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value. This point needs underscoring. Justifying a deal as being "strategic" ex post facto is, in most cases, an invitation to inferior returns. Given how frequently we have heard weak "strategic" justifications after a deal has closed, it's worth passing along a warning from Craig Tall, vice chair of corporate development and strategic planning at Washington Mutual. In recent years, Tall's bank has made acquisitions a key part of a stunningly successful growth record. "When I see an expensive deal," Tall told us, "and they say it was a 'strategic' deal, it's a code for me that somebody paid too much."

And although sometimes the best offense is a good defense, this axiom does not really stand in for a valid investment thesis. On more than a few occasions, we have been witness to deals that were initiated because an investment banker uttered the Eight Magic Words: If you don't buy it, your competitors will.

Well, so be it. If a potential acquisition is not compelling to you on its own merits, let it go. Let your competitors put their good money down, and prove that their investment theses are strong.

Let's look at a case in point: [Clear Channel Communications' leaders Lowry, Mark and Randall] Mayses' decision to move from radios into outdoor advertising (billboards, to most of us). Based on our conversations with Randall Mays, we summarize their investment thesis for buying into the billboard business as follows:

Clear Channel's expansion into outdoor advertising leverages the company's core competencies in two ways: First, the local market sales force that is already in place to sell radio ads can now sell outdoor ads to many of the same buyers, and Clear Channel is uniquely positioned to sell both local and national advertisements. Second, similar to the radio industry twenty years ago, the outdoor advertising industry is fragmented and undercapitalized. Clear Channel has the capital needed to "roll up" a significant fraction of this industry, as well as the cash flow and management systems needed to reduce operating expenses across a consolidated business.

Note that in Clear Channel's investment thesis (at least as we've stated it), the benefits would be derived from three sources:

• Leveraging an existing sales force more extensively
• Using the balance sheet to roll up and fund an undercapitalized business
• Applying operating skills learned in the radio trade

Note also the emphasis on tangible and quantifiable results, which can be easily communicated and tested. All stakeholders, including investors, employees, debtors and vendors, should understand why a deal will make their company stronger. Does the investment thesis make sense only to those who know the company best? If so, that's probably a bad sign. Is senior management arguing that a deal's inherent genius is too complex to be understood by all stakeholders, or simply asserting that the deal is "strategic"? These, too, are probably bad signs.

Most of the best acquirers we've studied try to get the thesis down on paper as soon as possible. Getting it down in black and white—wrapping specific words around the ideas—allows them to circulate the thesis internally and to generate reactions early and often.

The perils of the "transformational" deal. Some readers may be wondering whether there isn't a less tangible, but equally credible, rationale for an investment thesis: the transformational deal. Such transactions, which became popular in the exuberant '90s, aim to turn companies (and sometimes even whole industries) on their head and "transform" them. In effect, they change a company's basis of competition through a dramatic redeployment of assets.

The roster of companies that have favored transformational deals includes Vivendi Universal, AOL Time Warner (which changed its name back to Time Warner in October 2003), Enron, Williams, and others. Perhaps that list alone is enough to turn our readers off the concept of the transformational deal. (We admit it: We keep wanting to put that word transformational in quotes.) But let's dig a little deeper.

Sometimes what looks like a successful transformational deal is really a case of mistaken identity. In search of effective transformations, people sometimes cite the examples of DuPont—which after World War I used M&A to transform itself from a maker of explosives into a broad-based leader in the chemicals industry—and General Motors, which, through the consolidation of several car companies, transformed the auto industry. But when you actually dissect the moves of such industry winners, you find that they worked their way down the same learning curve as the best-practice companies in our global study. GM never attempted the transformational deal; instead, it rolled up smaller car companies until it had the scale to take on a Ford—and win. DuPont was similarly patient; it broadened its product scope into a range of chemistry-based industries, acquisition by acquisition.

In a more recent example, Rexam PLC has transformed itself from a broad-based conglomerate into a global leader in packaging by actively managing its portfolio and growing its core business. Beginning in the late '90s, Rexam shed diverse businesses in cyclical industries and grew scale in cans. First it acquired Europe's largest beverage—can manufacturer, Sweden's PLM, in 1999. Then it bought U.S.-based packager American National Can in 2000, making itself the largest beverage-can maker in the world. In other words, Rexam acquired with a clear investment thesis in mind: to grow scale in can making or broaden geographic scope. The collective impact of these many small steps was transformation. 14

But what of the literal transformational deal? You saw the preceding list of companies. Our advice is unequivocal: Stay out of this high-stakes game. Recent efforts to transform companies via the megadeal have failed or faltered. The glamour is blinding, which only makes the route more treacherous and the destination less clear. If you go this route, you are very likely to destroy value for your shareholders.

By definition, the transformational deal can't have a clear investment thesis, and evidence from the movement of stock prices immediately following deal announcements suggests that the market prefers deals that have a clear investment thesis. In "Deals That Create Value," for example, McKinsey scrutinized stock price movements before and after 231 corporate transactions over a five-year period. The study concluded that the market prefers "expansionist" deals, in which a company "seeks to boost its market share by consolidating, by moving into new geographic regions, or by adding new distribution channels for existing products and services."

On average, McKinsey reported, deals of the "expansionist" variety earned a stock market premium in the days following their announcement. By contrast, "transformative" deals—whereby companies threw themselves bodily into a new line of business—destroyed an average of 5.3% of market value immediately after the deal's announcement. Translating these findings into our own terminology:

• Expansionist deals are more likely to have a clear investment thesis, while "transformative" deals often have no credible rationale.
• The market is likely to reward the former and punish the latter.
• The dilution/accretion debate. One more side discussion that comes to bear on the investment thesis: Deal making is often driven by what we'll call the dilution/accretion debate. We will argue that this debate must be taken into account as you develop your investment thesis, but your thesis making should not be driven by this debate.

Sometimes what looks like a successful transformational deal is really a case of mistaken identity. Simply put, a deal is dilutive if it causes the acquiring company to have lower earnings per share (EPS) than it had before the transaction. As they teach in Finance 101, this happens when the asset return on the purchased business is less than the cost of the debt or equity (e.g., through the issuance of new shares) needed to pay for the deal. Dilution can also occur when an asset is sold, because the earnings power of the business being sold is greater than the return on the alternative use of the proceeds (e.g., paying down debt, redeeming shares or buying something else). An accretive deal, of course, has the opposite outcomes.

But that's only the first of two shoes that may drop. The second shoe is, How will Wall Street respond? Will investors punish the company (or reward it) for its dilutive ways?

Aware of this two-shoes-dropping phenomenon, many CEOs and CFOs use the litmus test of earnings accretion/dilution as the first hurdle that should be put in front of every proposed deal. One of these skilled acquirers is Citigroup's [former] CFO Todd Thomson, who told us:

It's an incredibly powerful discipline to put in place a rule of thumb that deals have to be accretive within some [specific] period of time. At Citigroup, my rule of thumb is it has to be accretive within the first twelve months, in terms of EPS, and it has to reach our capital rate of return, which is over 20% return within three to four years. And it has to make sense both financially and strategically, which means it has to have at least as fast a growth rate as we expect from our businesses in general, which is 10 to 15% a year.

Now, not all of our deals meet that hurdle. But if I set that up to begin with, then if [a deal is] not going to meet that hurdle, people know they better make a heck of a compelling argument about why it doesn't have to be accretive in year one, or why it may take year four or five or six to be able to hit that return level.

Unfortunately, dilution is a problem that has to be wrestled with on a regular basis. As Mike Bertasso, the head of H. J. Heinz's Asia-Pacific businesses, told us, "If a business is accretive, it is probably low-growth and cheap for a reason. If it is dilutive, it's probably high-growth and attractive, and we can't afford it." Even if you can't afford them, steering clear of dilutive deals seems sensible enough, on the face of it. Why would a company's leaders ever knowingly take steps that would decrease their EPS?

The answer, of course, is to invest for the future. As part of the research leading up to this book, Bain looked at a hundred deals that involved EPS accretion and dilution. All the deals were large enough and public enough to have had an effect on the buyer's stock price. The result was surprising: First-year accretion and dilution did not matter to shareholders. In other words, there was no statistical correlation between future stock performance and whether the company did an accretive or dilutive deal. If anything, the dilutive deals slightly outperformed. Why? Because dilutive deals are almost always involved in buying higher-growth assets, and therefore by their nature pass Thomson's test of a "heck of a compelling argument."

As a rule, investors like to see their companies investing in growth. We believe that investors in the stock market do, in fact, look past reported EPS numbers in an effort to understand how the investment thesis will improve the business they already own. If the investment thesis holds up to this kind of scrutiny, then some short-term dilution is probably acceptable.

Reprinted with permission of Harvard Business School Press. Mastering the Merger: Four Critical Decisions That Make or Break the Deal , by David Harding and Sam Rovit. Copyright 2004 Bain & Company; All Rights Reserved.

David Harding (HBS MBA '84) is a director in Bain & Company's Boston office and is an expert in corporate strategy and organizational effectiveness.

Sam Rovit (HBS MBA '89) is a director in the Chicago office and leader of Bain & Company's Global Mergers and Acquisitions Practice.                                              

10. Joe Trustey, telephone interview by David Harding, Bain & Company. Boston: 13 May 2003. Subsequent comments by Trustey are also from this interview.

11. Accenture, "Accenture Survey Shows Executives Are Cautiously Optimistic Regarding Future Mergers and Acquisitions," Accenture Press Release, 30 May 2002.

12. John R. Harbison, Albert J. Viscio, and Amy T. Asin, "Making Acquisitions Work: Capturing Value After the Deal," Booz Allen & Hamilton Series of View-points on Alliances, 1999.

13. Craig Tall, telephone interview by Catherine Lemire, Bain & Company. Toronto: 1 October 2002.

14. Rolf Börjesson, interview by Tom Shannon, Bain & Company. London: 2001.

15. Hans Bieshaar, Jeremy Knight, and Alexander van Wassenaer, "Deals That Create Value," McKinsey Quarterly 1 (2001).

16. Todd Thomson, speaking on "Strategic M&A in an Opportunistic Environment." (Presentation at Bain & Company's Getting Back to Offense conference, New York City, 20 June 2002.)

17. Mike Bertasso, correspondence with David Harding, 15 December 2003.

Mastering the Merger

Learn more about the core decision strategies that help companies win in M&A.

• Financial Services
• M&A Capability
• Mergers and Acquisitions

How We've Helped Clients

Sales and marketing building a more valuable salesforce, sales and marketing bank gets back to basics to protect customer base, strategy strategic refocus for global wealth management company, ready to talk.

We work with ambitious leaders who want to define the future, not hide from it. Together, we achieve extraordinary outcomes.

Contact Bain

How can we help you?

• Business inquiry
• Career information
• Press relations
• Partnership request
• Speaker request

What Is an Investment Thesis?

Investing is a process. One important task an investor should perform before putting money into an opportunity is to develop an investment thesis. An investment thesis is a written analysis laying out the case for why an investment opportunity should generate a compelling return.

Here's a closer look at how to build an investment thesis and why it's essential to create one. 

The importance of creating an investment thesis

Many people make the mistake of investing their hard-earned money into opportunities they don't fully understand. Maybe they received a tip on a hot stock at a party or got caught up in the frenzy of  meme stocks  and  cryptocurrencies on social media. Perhaps that investment has now lost value, and they're not sure whether they should buy more , sell , or continue holding .

An investment thesis can help solve this problem. By creating a thesis on why you believe an investment will deliver an attractive return, you can use it as a guide to determine your next step when the investment experiences a large decline or some disturbing news emerges. You can measure those factors against the original thesis to see if it remains intact.

If the thesis hasn't changed, you can continue holding or potentially increase your investment. However, if you found that the thesis is busted, you can sell your investment and move on.

How to write an investment thesis

It's important to take the time to write a well-thought-out and thoroughly researched investment thesis. That will allow you to easily make sense of it for future reference. Here are four easy steps for writing an investment thesis.

Identify the underlying catalyst at play

The first step in writing an investment thesis is to determine and then outline the catalyst driving your investment thesis. For example, are you interested in the long-term upside from a  secular trend  or  economic supercycle , or a shorter-term rebound from the economic  cycle  or a  bear market ? Write out the primary reason you believe this investment has attractive upside potential.

Assess how the investment is positioned within the catalyst

Next, look at how the particular investment opportunity compares to others that benefit from the same catalyst. Is it the largest  publicly traded company  focused on this opportunity? Smaller but with more upside potential? Does it align with a particular  long-term investment strategy ? Will it help you with  balancing your portfolio ? Write out why this investment is a solid choice to benefit from this catalyst.

Consider the biggest risks 

As the saying goes, the best-laid plans often go awry. That's why it's vital to consider what will happen to this particular investment opportunity if something goes wrong. Some examples to consider:

• Can it withstand a recession ?
• Could Congress enact legislation that would damage its prospects?
• Is there a lot of competition within the industry?
• Does it have too much debt, volatile cash flows, or an otherwise weaker financial profile?
• Is the price high? Could that result in underperformance if the catalyst doesn't play out according to plan?

Consider and jot down anything that could negatively impact this investment.

Determine your conviction level

Finally, write down your expected return from this investment and how much conviction you have in its ability to achieve that return. Then, given the catalyst, its position within that catalyst, the risk/reward profile, and your conviction level, is it worth the investment?

By going through these steps and writing a detailed investment thesis, you can proceed with confidence. Further, you can reference it in the future to ensure your thesis is playing out as expected. If not, you can make changes to your investment.

Investment thesis examples

An investment thesis doesn't need to be that long. It just needs to contain the most important factors driving your decision to invest in a particular opportunity. Here's a simplified example based on my investment thesis for Brookfield Renewable  ( BEP 2.64% )( BEPC 3.42% ), one of my largest holdings:

Renewable energy is one of the biggest megatrends of our lifetimes. It will take the global economy three decades and more than $100 trillion of investment to transition its primary power source from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

One of the leaders in this energy transition is Brookfield Renewable. It has one of the largest globally diversified renewable energy platforms and an even bigger pipeline of development projects. Brookfield also has an extensive track record of creating value from the sector, including two decades of steady income and dividend growth , driving superior performance.

Brookfield is also well positioned to navigate the biggest risk facing the industry — access to low-cost capital to finance capital-intensive development projects — due to its rock-solid financial profile backed by a top-notch balance sheet. Given Brookfield's position within this megatrend and its historical success, I have high conviction that it can deliver market-beating total returns for years to come and would consider adding to my position on any meaningful price decline.

This example succinctly lays out the catalyst (the renewable energy megatrend), the investment opportunity's position in the trend (Brookfield is a global leader), its ability to withstand risks (Brookfield has a top-tier financial profile), and my conviction level (high).

An investment thesis isn't just for stocks ; you can craft one for any investment opportunity you're contemplating. For example, you might have the opportunity to invest in a new business venture or a private company. To write an investment thesis for a venture capital or private equity opportunity, you would follow the same outline.

Here's a simplified investment thesis for a new coffee shop:

People love coffee . Demand for the brewed beverage is on track to grow at a more than 8% annual rate through 2025, according to Statista. It also notes that, by 2025, 84% of coffee spending and 21% of the volume consumed will be outside the home. That growing market will benefit coffee shops.

This particular shop would be the first one in a trendy area of downtown that's undergoing a dramatic revitalization. While restaurant retail can be brutal, the group starting the coffee shop has opened several profitable locations around the city in recent years. Their past success, when combined with the coffee industry's growth, suggests this new shop should thrive. Because of that, you have a high conviction that this investment will earn a much greater return than if you invested the money in another retail opportunity. 

With this venture capital investment thesis we've:

• Identified the catalyst: Growing demand for out-of-home coffee consumption.
• Classified this particular investment opportunity's position within the catalyst: First mover in a trendy area.
• Determine all the risks facing this venture: Retail is brutal.
• Considered the conviction level: High compared to other retail opportunities.

Related investing topics

How to invest in stocks: a beginner's guide for getting started.

Are you ready to jump into the stock market? We've got you.

How to Start Buying Stocks: Step by Step Guide

Learn six steps to start buying stock, including researching the ones that interest you and deciding how many shares to buy.

How to Build Wealth

Getting rich sounds great, but how do you do it?

An investment thesis can make you a more successful investor

Thinking through and crafting a thoroughly researched investment thesis can help you make better informed investing decisions. While it's best to write one before you invest, you can also create one for existing holdings. The investment thesis will serve as a guide allowing you to measure whether the opportunity is living up to your thesis — suggesting you hold or buy more — or if that's no longer the case, and it's time to sell.  

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join over half a million premium members receiving….

• New Stock Picks Each Month
• Detailed Analysis of Companies
• Model Portfolios
• Live Streaming During Market Hours
• And Much More

HOW THE MOTLEY FOOL CAN HELP YOU

Market beating stocks from our award-winning service

Investment news and high-quality insights delivered straight to your inbox

You can do it. Successful investing in just a few steps

Secrets and strategies for the post-work life you want.

Find the right brokerage account for you.

Hear our experts take on stocks, the market, and how to invest.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.

An Investment Thesis: The Key To Making More Money Long Term

In general, the longer you stay invested, the greater your chance of making money. To help you maintain a long-term investment approach, it's imperative to develop an investment thesis.

Drawing from my experience in investing since 1995, it's sometimes easy to get shaken out of a particular investment. Or it’s easier for some people to just keep their money sitting in cash out of fear of financial loss. I get it. I’ve lost plenty of money before because there are no guarantees when you take risk.

I observed panic selling during the 2000 dot bomb and 2008 global financial crisis, affecting both stock and real estate sellers. More recently, I witnessed panic selling at the beginning of the global pandemic in 2020. The events lead me to try and allay fears with the post, “ How to Predict the Stock Market Bottom like Nostradamus .”

Having a solid investment thesis, as long as it remains intact, will provide you with the courage and confidence to hold on for the long term.

The Importance Of Developing An Investment Thesis When Investing

Let me go through some examples of how having an investment thesis has helped me hold long-term and make more money overtime. Coming up with an investment thesis also helped me make a significant decision on a recent dilemma. At the end of this post, I'll also share what makes a good investment thesis.

If you are just starting out and are fearful of investing your hard-earned money, developing an investment thesis will help you take action. To beat inflation , you must continuously invest over the long term. If you don’t overcome your fear of investing, then you will likely fall way behind over time.

Please know that you don't have to be a great investor to make money. You just need to be a good-enough investor to significantly outperform a large part of the population that does not save and invest aggressively.

1) Heartland Real Estate Investment Thesis

In 2016, I published my post titled “ Focus on Trends: Why I'm Investing in the Heartland of America .” My investment thesis was based on the anticipation that more people would relocate to lower-cost areas of the country due to advancements in technology and the increasing ability to work from home. Additionally, I believed that Trump's victory would contribute to increased interest, funding, and expansion in red states.

Given the uncertainty of which specific real estate investment deal to pursue, I opted to invest in a couple of funds that focused on acquiring real estate in the heartland of America. Now, eight years and $954,000 later, I have generally witnessed positive returns on my investments. Texas properties, in particular, have performed quite well since 2016. However, as I shared in my post on private real estate investing after eight years , there have also been some duds as well.

Investing for such an extended period has been relatively straightforward. In the realm of private funds , the expected distributions typically span between 5-10 years.

Based on my investment thesis of a demographic shift to the heartland, I logically looked for real estate investment firms that had the same investment thesis. And I found one in 2016 in Fundrise. Fundrise predominantly invests in the Sunbelt region where valuations tend to be lower and rental yields tend to be higher.

2) San Francisco Real Estate Investment Thesis

When I arrived in San Francisco in 2001, I was amazed by the affordability of real estate compared to New York City. Properties were priced 20 to 30% lower, offering more space for the same cost or a similar property for less.

At that time, compensation in the finance industry was comparable between the two cities at my level. My investment thesis was that prices in SF would catch up to prices in Manhattan due to a better quality of life and the growth of technology.

Didn’t Want To Miss Out On The Tech Boom

My firm played a role in taking Facebook and Google public in the early 2000s. As a result, I anticipated a resurgence in Web 2.0. Lacking the skills or connections to enter the tech industry, I opted to invest in tech stocks and acquire rental properties instead.

Overall, San Francisco property prices have shown positive performance. The excitement of living in a big city attracts billions of people. However, the city's reputation suffered post-pandemic due to hesitancy by officials to address criminal activities and remove drug dealers downtown.

Thankfully, to stay in power, politicians must address corruption, tackle crime, clean up the city, and provide tax incentives for businesses to thrive. Citizens discontented with criminal activities are likely to vote out ideological politicians and judges who harm the community. Consequently, there is potential for the city's image to be restored post 2024 election, leading to a recovery in real estate prices.

Deja Vu With Artificial Intelligence

Since 2023 there has been an extraordinary surge in tech stock prices. Fueled by substantial bonuses and robust portfolios, I anticipate that a portion of this wealth will flow back into San Francisco Bay Area real estate. Redfin reports that luxury home prices are reaching all-time highs , attracting a significant number of all-cash buyers .

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is evoking a sense of déjà vu, reminiscent of 25 years ago when the internet promised to revolutionize the world. Today, it is equally apparent that AI will shape the world in the next two decades.

Despite the likelihood that most of us won't secure lucrative AI jobs due to intense competition, there's an opportunity for ordinary individuals to invest in AI companies. Beyond public companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, private investments can be made through open-ended venture capital funds like the one offered by Fundrise.

Fundrise launched its venture capital product at the end of 2022, which was great timing given private company valuations had corrected. The investment minimum is only $10, so everybody can participate. You can see the holdings, and the fees are much lower than closed-end venture capital funds.

I am personally adopting this approach by investing in both public and private AI-related companies. My goal is to allocate $500,000 to these companies over the next five years. This strategy not only positions me for potential gains but also serves as a hedge against the challenges AI might pose for our children in terms of job opportunities.

AI Facilitated My Property Decision

In my previous post, “ Rent out, sell, or create a wellness center, ” I detailed my dilemma regarding what to do with my old house. At 46 years old, with two young children and already managing four rental properties, the prospect of overseeing another rental didn't appeal to me.

Being a landlord can be burdensome, particularly when dealing with challenging tenants or constant maintenance issues. Such responsibilities take away time that could be better spent on more enjoyable activities, like playing tennis or spending quality moments with my kids.

After reading through the comments on my post, which provided diverse opinions on the course of action, I weighed the options and arrived at a decision to rent out the house and hold it for the long term. The deciding factor was the formulation of an investment thesis.

Why Renting Out Is Better For Now

My investment thesis revolves around the belief that owning a single-family home on the west side of San Francisco is a sound decision. Local economic catalysts, including the opening of a large school in the fall of 2024 and the $4 billion renovation of the UCSF Parnassus Hospital by 2030 (expected to create 1400 new jobs), indicate a positive trajectory for real estate on the west side.

Remote work is here to stay. In addition, there is a demographic transition from downtown on the east side to the west side. The final catalyst for my decision to rent out is the anticipated wealth generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) for employees and investors. As a result, I will suck it up as a landlord for the next 3-5 years and then reevaluate. The earliest I'd relocate to Honolulu, Hawaii is in 2030.

I spoke to Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise , and he believes we're past the real estate market as do I. As a result, holding onto my property and renting it out makes even more sense.

3) The Vision Pro Investment Thesis For Apple

I've owned Apple stock since 2012 and it has done well. With the S&P 500 surpassing 4,900, I've faced increasing challenges in finding compelling stock investments. However, when the Vision Pro was unveiled on February 2, 2024, my interest was piqued.

At that time, Apple had just reported somewhat soft quarterly results, causing a dip in the stock. I contemplated whether this could be the opportunity to further invest in the company. After dedicating several hours to researching the Vision Pro, I concluded that the answer was affirmative.

Apple's new Vision Pro is a significant accessibility tool for the visually impaired . Approximately 2.2 billion people worldwide experience some form of visual impairment. While an estimated 237 million face moderate to severe impairment. Among them, 40 million are considered legally blind or completely blind. This figure is expected to rise to 115 million by 2050.

Consequently, I believe the Vision Pro holds the promise of greatly assisting a substantial portion of the global population in enhancing their vision and interaction capabilities. Considering the critical importance of sight, the demand for this product should be relatively inelastic for the visually impaired. Furthermore, Apple is likely to enhance the product over time and reduce its retail cost. I can’t wait for version 2 and 3.

An Example Of How The Vision Pro Can Help The Visually Impaired

If you have regular sight or can correct your myopia or hyperopia with glasses or contact lenses, then you might take for granted your vision. Seeing a small screen on your phone or the 10-point font size on a menu is usually not a problem. For for those with visual impairments, it can be.

This Vision Pro commercial succinctly captures one of its many benefits for the visually impaired.

Apple is already an outstanding company with intelligent employees and an impressive product line. Further, it is cash flow positive with substantial cash reserves and a dividend payout. My confidence in investing in Apple stock aligns with my confidence in the S&P 500. However, I anticipate additional upside potential, particularly with the introduction of the Vision Pro and how Apple with integrate artificial intelligence with all its products.

Note: The definition of legally blind means the inability to correct your visual accuity to at least 20/200 with corrective lenses. Most people can correct their visual acuity to 20/20 to 20/40 with glasses or contacts. Legally blind usually does not mean complete blindness, as many people who are legally blind still have some vision.

America The Great: The Ultimate Investment Thesis

I harbor a home country bias as an American patriot. I've resided in this country since 1991 and have payed six figures in taxes annually since 2003. My children were born on American soil. In addition, I've crafted over 2300 personal finance posts aimed primarily at aiding Americans in achieving financial freedom sooner. These experiences have fostered my deep connection and commitment to this nation.

I envision my final days in America, leaving behind a positive legacy . Consequently, my long-term outlook is bullish and biased on owning American assets.

The greatness of America, in my belief, stems from:

• Entrepreneurial spirit
• Strong work ethic
• A stable democratic government
• A robust legal system safeguarding intellectual property and individual rights
• A formidable defense industry ensuring citizens' protection
• A stable world currency
• Generally thoughtful and kind people aspiring to assist others globally in attaining freedom
• A history of unity during times of crisis, exemplified by events like 9/11 and the pandemic

While acknowledging America's challenges—crime, poverty, socioeconomic injustices—I consider it unwise to bet against its long-term excellence. The collective willpower of our nation, I believe, will drive ongoing positive improvements.

I advocate that everyone, globally, should find a way to own a piece of America . You can do so by buying the S&P 500 or U.S. physical real estate or private real estate.

In 50 years, when our grandchildren become adults, they will appreciate our foresight in investing in America today. Despite inevitable economic fluctuations, with a well-defined investment thesis, we stand to accumulate wealth beyond our current imagination.

What Makes A Good Investment Thesis

A good investment thesis is a well-researched and articulated rationale behind an investment decision. It serves as a comprehensive guide that outlines the reasons and expectations for choosing a particular investment. Here are key characteristics of a good investment thesis:

• Clear and Concise: The thesis should be easily understandable and to the point.
• Supported by Research: Ground your thesis in thorough research, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and an understanding of relevant economic and market trends.
• Alignment with Goals: Clearly state how the investment aligns with your overall financial goals and objectives. Whether it's capital appreciation, passive income generation , or risk mitigation, the thesis should reflect your goals.
• Identifies Investment Opportunity: Specify the investment opportunity or opportunities you have identified. This could involve a specific asset class, industry, sector, or individual securities.
• Analysis of Risks: Acknowledge and assess the risks, challenges, and uncertainties associated with the investment.
• Time Horizon: Clearly define your time horizon for the investment. Specify whether it's a short-term trade, a long-term hold, or something in between.
• Competitive Advantage: Understand what sets it apart from competitors and how it plans to sustain or enhance that advantage.
• Financial Metrics: Include relevant financial metrics supporting your investment decision. This may include valuation ratios, growth rates, profitability, and other key financial indicators.
• Scenario Analysis: Consider different scenarios and outcomes. A well-thought-out thesis anticipates how the investment might perform under various circumstances.
• Adaptable and Dynamic: Recognize that market conditions can change. A good investment thesis is adaptable and allows for adjustments based on new information or changing circumstances.
• Exit Strategy: Clearly outline your exit strategy. Know under what conditions you would sell or reduce your position.
• Communication: Share your thesis with others to find any blind spots, like I am with this post. Others should be able to understand your rationale and analysis.

Keeping updating your investment thesis over time

Having a good investment thesis won't guarantee success, but it's like a roadmap for your investments. Keep updating it based on what's happening in the market, and make sure you invest for the long term.

For example, after the failed assassination attempt on July 15, 2024, Trump will likely become the 47th president of the United States. As a result, there may be further upside with your investments in 2025 and beyond. Here's a detailed article on what Trump's presidency means for your money .

Investment theses can vary in quality, and sometimes you might get the investment right with the wrong thesis. The main thing is to have a good reason why you're investing, so you stick with it over time.

In 10 years, you'll probably end up with more money who keeps investing for the long haul, compared to someone who doesn't invest or tries to time the market. Decide which situation you want to have in the future.

Invest In Private Growth Companies

If you believe artificial intelligence will be an important economic driver, check out Fundrise . Fundrise invests in the following five sectors:

• Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
• Modern Data Infrastructure
• Development Operations (DevOps)
• Financial Technology (FinTech)
• Real Estate & Property Technology (PropTech)

Roughly 90% of Fundrise's venture capital product has exposure to artificial intelligence. In 20 years, I don't want my kids wondering why I didn't invest in AI or work in AI.

The investment minimum is also only $10. Most venture capital funds have a $250,000+ minimum. You can see what Fundrise is holding before deciding to invest and how much. Traditional venture capital funds require capital commitment first and then hope the general partners will find great investments.

Fundrise is a long-term sponsor of Financial Samurai and Financial Samurai is an investor in Fundrise.

About The Author

Financial Samurai

Sign up for the private Financial Samurai newsletter!

Folks investing should have an Investment Policy Statement (IPS).

Scope & Purpose: “The investment policy statement (IPS) will govern how the financial assets of ____________ are to be invested.”

RESPONSIBILITIES:

“__________ is responsible for coordinating updates to the IPS and responsible for monitoring the application of the IPS and shall notify ETFguide of the need for updates to the IPS and/or violations of the IPS implementation. _________ shall be responsible for approving the IPS and all subsequent revisions of it.

Changes in life circumstances including the birth of a child, retirement, disability, divorce, or family death will impact all future adjustments and responsibilities to this document.”

Research the subject and find a Financial Advisor (RIA) firm that prepares such IPS reports and go over your situation with them. Ron Delegge at ETFguide can prepare an IPS for you for a reasonable fee. You can find his firm online.

your quote sums up our last 40+ years of heavy real estate investing vs investing in equities.

“Since 1996, I’ve discovered that having a well-defined investment thesis increases the likelihood of consistently investing and holding onto investments during challenging periods. As the old saying goes, ‘time in the market is more important than timing the market.’ This lesson came to me the hard way during the first 10 years of my investing career.”

We were told many times that we would lose it all, go bankrupt, have to grovel to return to work & suffer the never ending torment of bad tenants & damages. We could write a book on it all, as it definitely was not easy, but since 1998 (& retired) we have been free & clear on every property since, have no debt since & live comfortably between three homes during the year after selling our 4th, a FL home of 31 years, just before H. Ian hit. love your articles & financial insight.

My California real estate thesis is this:

Despite numerous rent control efforts and the State’s (and most coastal counties’) hostility towards landlords, I think California residential real estate will be very lucrative for landlords assuming they have sufficient cash on hand to withstand vacancies, evictions, cash for keys, etc.

This is because rent control decreases landlord and developer participation in providing housing and thus leads to fewer units on the market. Fewer units on the market will increase rental prices.

Hi, like you I own and manage a few rental properties in the city, which is our primary income. Although the rental market here isn’t great, at least it’s stabilized. It’s like survive until 2025 and hopefully things will turn around in SF. These upcoming city elections, with a swell of moderate candidates will hopefully make a tangible difference in quality of life issues, which of course have hurt SF’s reputation worldwide.

I’m also bullish on the potential for the AI industry. But work from home is pervasive and I think downtown and soma are going to be challenged for several years. Also tech firms are less concentrated in the Bay Area now and getting more distributed in 2nd tier cities. The saving grace for SF is that many local neighborhoods are now more cleaned up and also have thriving foot traffic, if it’s the mission, inner sunset, etc. So I feel good about the future of good and established SF neighborhoods, which is where I own properties.

SF has roughly doubled in value every 10years, which is amazing. The first chart in this report is a good visual, https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby The main thing I need to wrap my head around is that I think the next 5-10 years will not have the amazing appreciation that we’ve had since the mid-late 90’s when I started investing. I honestly got used to that phenomenal rate growth, but I’m trying to set more modest expectations going forward.

How bullish are you on future SF appreciation? Do you think it will be anything like the last 30 years?

The market may simmer this year. But I think it’ll eventually go up again by a rate of 3.5 to 5% a year. If you look at the historical cycles, there’s generally about 4 to 5 years of flat lining.

Given we’re already at a high base, the growth rate of appreciation won’t be as high as in the past. That said, I think there’s gonna be another renaissance of Wealth being created over the next 10 to 20 years with new tech / AI.

What the cost of building materials, labor, and restrictive building should help push real estate prices higher.

Yeah 3.5-4.5% SF real estate returns over the next 5-10 years is probably realistic. 7% is unlikely, which is what we’ve gotten used to :) Without that outsized 7% equity return, and holding my properties debt free (no leverage), keeping them long term vs selling and going into the stock market becomes a much closer call.

My cash on cash on my RE is 3.5-4%, plus 3.5-4.5% expected appreciation totals 7-8.5% total returns, which is roughly in line with s&p 500 long term returns. Tax treatment favors RE, but then again with stocks you don’t need to deal with tenants and repairs. But of course the main issue is transferring my RE equity into stocks is bloody expensive, with sales expenses and capital gains of about 37%. So I’m still better off holding the RE. My only issue is that I’m heavily RE weighed, with only a small stocks portfolio. My plan has been to dollar cost average excess RE profits into stocks to better balance my portfolio.

I’ll just have to see what transpires over the next 2-3 years to our fair city, plus evaluate the macro economic picture. I guess this “sell RE, buy stocks” dilemma isn’t such a bad problem to have. But nevertheless it’s nice to have a “safe space” (sic) such as this blog where wealthy people can freely cry about their problems…IRW anytime I bring this up to people it’s like, “wait, let me get the worlds smallest violin to play for you” :)

Innovation Fund vs going after AI public companies like the following that are already established and surging YTD. Thinking the latter might be more attractive and with less risk.

Nividia TSMC Arm SoundHound

I don’t have thesis, only several points: -Only buy S&P 500 index with lowest fee. -No trading, hold for LONG time. – Maximize all tax deferred accounts. – No investment in a single company since I have no control over management. I bought and didn’t look at my account for years . I just recently checked and saw that it has 13% compounding interest making me millionaire.

Well done. Don’t forget to capitalize on your investments by selling on occasion to buy things you want and improve the quality of your life. Otherwise, there’s really no point to investing in stocks.

Is there a fundrise equivalent for non-US citizens? Thanks in advance. Dave

Hi Dave, I’m not aware of one. You can just invest in a public real estate ETF like VNQ or one of the publicly-traded REITs like O. Just know they are more volatile.

Just to clarify, Innovation Fund is not currently open to new investors but has a “waitlist.”

Also what is happening with publically traded companies in the AI thesis seems to me to mean that not really necessary to take on added risk of start-ups. just look at recent performance of ARM SMCi and NVDA. and that is just a few. i will continue inverting in a broad 10-12 public stocks and sure to gain solid and not massive returns. i look at it this way, if a start up here or there will do 10x and some will bust, leaving you with overall 3-4 times return, then i am likely to better with the established companies in a sector where the revolution has just begun. smci is up 3x in just a month.

That’s weird. I just checked with Fundrise and the Innovation Fund is open to investors.

“The Innovation Fund is OPEN to new investors. It is possible this person is unable to make a direct investment into the fund if they are an existing investor who is not a Pro member. This is something we’re working on.

But to reiterate the fund is open to new investors.

If you select the Venture Capital investment plan during signup you can invest in the Innovation Fund.”

I’m an existing investor and don’t believe I’m a pro member. I’m able to invest in the Innovation Fund.

i’m an existing investor but not a pro member and i am not able to invest in Innovation fund so must fall into that segment. it is not provided as an option when i select “browse investments” in my account. i then read a review of the fund from late 2023, i will try to post, and it did say that it wasn’t open to all yet. it did said all you needed was $10 to start.

You should reach out to them and let them know.

ASH01 – What are the 10-12 AI public companies you are targeting besides Nividia, smci and ARM? Thoughts on TSMC & SoundHound? I tend to agree with your thesis. Why take on the private risk when the public companies should still be in their infancy in terms of AI growth.

As discussed earlier, here is my investment thesis which could be quite controversial:

1. A portfolio of 50/50 real estate vs. stock. The stock portion should not be lower but could be much higher. Holding real estate is mostly for pleasure/need and rent. Rental properties are all places i would want to live. Once pleasure part of real estate is no longer needed, should graduate to stocks or to rental units.

2. Stocks is a mix of SP500 and Tech i.e. Nasdaq 100, XLK, VOOG and also exposure to single high performing stock. No international stock. No bonds. Mostly automated invested to cost average. Real estate rental income is the security in case stock market crashes.

3. Flexible and nimble approach. Whenever the market is down, try investing more and don’t withdraw funds.

4. No investment in private funds, real estate funds, bitcoin and other cryptos which i dont understand and have no transparency. No need to complicate.

Sounds good. What’s your investment thesis though for your tech stocks?

It’s a good mantra to not invest in what you don’t understand.

I really enjoy investing private funds (VC, VD, real estate) as it forces me to invest for the long term ~10 years. The capital calls also keep me investing even when I might not want to.

I am excited about building out, my artificial intelligence exposure, and I have one from the invested in Ripple, which has turned out to be maybe a 20-40X return. Maybe I can cash out just in time to buy a new car in 2027, when my current car is 12 years old.

Here’s an example of an AI company one of my private funds (Kleiner) is investing in. I’m pumped! https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/06/ambience-healthcare-raises-70m-for-its-ai-assistant-led-by-openai-and-kleiner-perkins/

I’m also excited about the AI investments in the Fundrise Innovation Fund , like Databricks.

Sounds good. As for tech, i have a single stock exposure due to my employment which is doing better than market and is a great company that does good work. So thesis for that is don’t fix what is working. As for the rest, my strategy is similar to most here – i Invest in 15-20% of stock portfolio in QQQ and lesser to XLK and VOOG which are Apple, Microsoft heavy – i believe i get enough AI and other exposure through these since i dont know what the next big thing will be.

One last point. I am very bullish about US Stocks for the following reasons:

1. European markets are not performing. On surface, it appears cheap to buy however not a single tech company in the top 100 European companies. 2. China stock market is not performing. Significant decline and volatility. Could be the beginning of a Japan like deflation and decline. 3. US is the center of AI and innovation. 4. Stock ownership, although at historical highs is still low among Americans being at approx 56%.

In couple years, i think everyone will want a piece of the US companies. Already evidenced by the fact that Shiller CAPE after 80s is much higher than historically has been. Could this lead to a bubble? Definitely – but it could well last 10-20 years and the fundamentals could also catch up in the meanwhile either due to AI generated earnings or something else and optimism pays when investing!

My best thesis was investing in semiconductor stocks. Roughly 5 years ago I noticed how almost everything needed a chip. My thesis proved itself out during the pandemic. You couldn’t get a car, dishwasher or any smart device because chips weren’t available. I bought AMD, NVDA, and Intel. 2 of them worked out pretty good. I was banking on the cloud and data centers to boom. That part worked out okay. I didn’t see any of the AI craze coming which has been hugely beneficial. Decent thesis and a ton of luck!

Nice! But what about the future?

Take a little profit and hold the rest for another 5 years. I realize we’re right in the middle of AI mania but everything I read and watch tells me we’re still in the early days of AI.

No matter what happens we’re still going to need more chips to power all our future ambitions

so interesting how almost nobody but nvda saw the AI craze coming. that one earnings report by them set this whole thing off about a year ago. such an interesting phenomenon. AI has been talked about for many years but then suddenly companies decide to try to make a product of it in a massive scale. nvda explosion in earning was because companies suddenly ordered their chips.

Yup, I spend hours a day watching cnbc, reading blogs and doing research and I truly didn’t know what AI could do or how much money companies could make off it. Luck is definitely a factor.

VTI + VXUS + long haul = chill

Agree, but it’s hard to retire earlier by just investing in the total stock market. There are two levels of wealth , the top-tier wealth did not get there by investing in ETFs or index funds.

100% agree with you on that front! BUT I do personally believe that 95% of people will accumulate more wealth through regular and automated index investing over time vs. active investment strategies such as picking 1:1 stocks. I would guess you also have a sizable audience base that loves the content but also leans toward simple investing strategies over the long haul and not constantly stressing about achieving the top tier of wealth. The content here can sometimes make you feel behind, overly stressed that you’ll never have enough, and stuck stressing about the future. I personally have to step back and remember it’s really about regular investing (in your strategies of choice) + time in the market and not timing the market. Which I personally think is a sound investment thesis! Love the content though to be clear. It’s really helped me think about allocation percentages and mortgage payoff strategies.

Yes, good points. For most people, buying a primary residence and regularly investing in an S&P 500 index fund is a great long-term strategy.

Personally, I like to always be challenged bc it’s fun. Even if I fail, I will likely have accumulated more than if I hadn’t pushed myself.

From my coaching days, the players who advance the most are pushed the hardest.

But good reminder to press the easy button once in a while for readers who may be burning out or feeling behind.

I love your clear and specific convictions in your investment thesis. That’s something I need to work on. Very cool on the Apple Vision Pro. I don’t have anything specific in my own investments. Although I do believe in long term real estate, stock, and tech exposure. Thanks for the list of steps on creating an investment thesis.

I’ve been investing since the mid-1980s. Every time I’ve evaluated my portfolio against a portfolio of index funds using backtesting of 5 years and more, the index funds (with expenses deducted) have beaten my portfolio’s performance over a 5+ year time horizon. I’ve finally realized that I have a lot more money today if I’d purchase a mix of three low-cost, passively managed index funds. My latest lesson occurred during the latest 5 year period in which my portfolio performed well. It did what it was designed to do (mitigate losses during down markets like 2022). I was only down 2% that year. Unfortunately, if I had invested in a mix of SCHD (50%), SCHG (25%), and SWPPX (25%), that portfolio would have crushed my performance by a wide margin. Yes, it lost more money in 2022 (around 14.75%) but dramatically exceeded its performance in the other four years. I’m done trying to be smart. I’m buying a mix of passive ETFs and accepting the market risk.

Thanks for posting that. You basically stated my “investment thesis”:

1. My assets must grow in order for me to keep up with long term inflation 2. Over the long haul it’s very difficult for me to outperform the market 3. Figuring out my my risk tolerance and indexing accordingly is probably my best bet

No different than you, it’s taken since the mid 1980’s for this reality to really set in…

Those are great points Vaughn. Keep the focus and stay invested for the long term!

Active funds underperform their benchmark passive index >95% of the time after 10 years. With retail investors its over 99% with average underperformance by 4% *annually*. The 1% that crush due to lucky pick with concentration are the reason people still do it, but I’d rather have a 99x higher chance to have a +4% CAGR *and* barely think about it.

• Skip to primary navigation
• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar
• Skip to footer

The Impact Investor | ESG Investing Blog

Investing for financial return is only part of the equation.

How to Create an Investment Thesis [Step-By-Step Guide]

Updated on June 13, 2023

Our posts may contain links from our affiliate partners. This supports helps support the site as we donate 10% of all profits to sustainability organizations that align with our values. However, this does not influence our opinions or ratings. Please read our Terms and Conditions for more information.

One of the worst mistakes an investor can make is to sink their money into an investment without knowing why. While this may seem like the world’s most obvious mistake to avoid, it happens every day. Look no further than the stock market for plenty of examples of misguided optimism gone terribly wrong.

That’s where the idea of an investment thesis comes in. An investment thesis is a common tool used by venture capital investors and hedge funds as part of their investment strategy.

Most funds also use it on a regular basis to size up potential candidates during buy-side job interviews. But you don’t have to work at a venture capital fund or private equity firm to reap the benefits of creating an investment thesis of your own.

Table of Contents

What Is an Investment Thesis?

Materials needed to create a thesis for your investment strategy, a step-by-step guide to creating a solid investment thesis, step 1: start with the essentials, step 2: analyze the current market, step 3: analyze the company’s sector, step 4: analyze the company’s position within its sector, step 5: identify the catalyst, step 6: solidify your thesis with analysis, free tools to help strengthen your investment strategy.

An investment thesis is simply an argument for why you should make a specific investment. Whether it be a stock market investment or private equity, investment theses are all about creating a solid argument for why a certain acquisition is a good idea based on strategic planning and research.

While it takes a little more work upfront, a clear investment thesis can be a valuable tool for any investor. Not only does it ensure that you fully understand why you’re choosing to put your hard-earned money into certain stocks or other assets, but it can also help you develop a long-term plan.

Should an investment idea not go as planned, you can always go back to your investment thesis to see if it still holds the potential to work out. By considering all the information your thesis contains, you’ll have a much better idea of whether it’s best to cut your losses and sell, continue holding, or even add to your position.

An investment thesis includes everything you need to create a solid game plan, making it a foundational part of any stock pitch.

See Related : Best Socially Responsible Stocks To Invest In Today

One of the benefits of an investment thesis is that it can be as complex or as simple as you like. If you actually work at a venture capital firm , then you may want to develop a full-on venture capital investment thesis. But if you’re a retail investor just looking to solidify your investment strategy, then your thesis may be much more straightforward.

If you’re an individual investor, then all you really need to create an investment thesis is somewhere to write it out. Whether it be in a Google or Word doc or on a piece of paper, just make sure you have a place to record your thesis so that you can consult it down the line.

If you’re developing a venture capital investment thesis that you plan to present to an investment committee or potential employers, then there are plenty of great tools online that can help. Slideteam has thousands of templates that can help you create a killer investment thesis , as well as full-on stock pitch templates.

As mentioned earlier, an investment thesis holds the potential to help you plot out a strategy for pretty much any acquisition. But for the sake of simplicity, we’ll assume throughout the examples in the following steps that you’re an investor interested in going long on a stock that you plan to hold for at least a few months or years.

Venture capitalists looking to invest in companies or startups can also apply the same principles to other investment goals. Investors who are looking to short a certain stock should also be able to use these techniques to locate potential investments. The main difference, of course, is that you’ll be looking for bad news instead of good.

First things first. Before you get into doing the research that goes into an investment thesis or stock pitch, make sure you take the time to write out the basics. At the top of the page, include things like:

• The name of the company and its ticker symbol
• Today’s date
• How many shares of the company you already own, if any
• The current cost average for any shares you may already hold
• Whether the stock pays dividends and, if so, how often. You may also want to include the current ex-dividend and dividend payment dates.
• A brief summary of the company and what it does

See Related : How to Start Investing With Purpose

Now it’s time to take a look at the entire market and the direction it’s headed. Why? As Investors Business Daily points out,

“History shows 3 out of 4 stocks move in the same direction as the overall market, either up or down. So if you buy stocks when the market is trending higher, you have a 75% chance of being right. But if you buy when the market is trending lower, you have a 75% chance of being wrong.”

While the overall market direction is definitely an important factor to keep in mind, what you choose to do with this information will largely come down to your individual investing style. Investors Business Daily founder William O’Neil advised investors only to jump into the market when it was trending up.

Another approach, however, is known as contrarian investing, which revolves around going against market trends. Warren Buffett summed up the idea behind this strategy with his famous quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Or as Baron Rothschild more graphically put it, “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

Most investors who are looking for a faster return will likely be better off waiting to strike until the iron is hot. If you align more with the long-term contrarian philosophy, however, bleak macroeconomic outlooks may actually strike you as an ideal investment opportunity .

See Related: How to Invest in Private Equity: A Step-by-Step

Now that you’ve got a look at the overall market, it’s time to take a look at the sector your company fits into. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) breaks down the entire market into 11 sectors. If you want to get even more specific, you can further break down companies into the GICS’s 24 industry groups, 69 industries, and 158 sub-industries.

Once you identify which group your company belongs to, you’ll then want to take a look at that sector’s performance. Fidelity provides a handy breakdown of the performance of various sectors over different time periods.

But why does it matter? Two reasons.

• Identifying which sectors various companies belong to can help you ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified
• The reason that sector ETFs tend to be so popular is that when a sector is trending, many of the stocks within that sector tend to move in unison. The reverse is also true. When a certain industry is lagging, the individual stock prices of the companies in that industry may be affected negatively. While this is not always the case, it’s a general rule of thumb to keep in mind.

The idea behind working sectors into your investment criteria is to give you an overview of what type of investment you’re about to make. If you’re a momentum trader, then you may want to shoot for companies within the strongest-performing sectors this year or even over the past few months.

If you’re a value investor, however, you may be more open to sectors that have historically experienced high growth, even if they are currently suffering due to the overall state of the economy. Some speculative investors may even be interested in an innovative industry with strong potential growth possibilities, even if its time has not yet come.

See Related : How to Invest in Community [Step-by-Step Guide]

If you want to up your odds of success even more, then you’ll want to compare the company you’re interested in against the performance of similar companies in the same industry.

These are the companies that tend to get the most attention from large, institutional investors who are in a position to significantly increase their market value. Institutional investors tend to have a huge amount of money in play and are far less likely to invest in a company without a proven track record.

When choosing an investment, they’ll almost always go with a global leader over a new business, regardless of its promise. However, they also consider intrinsic value, which considers how much a company’s stock is selling for now, as opposed to how much revenue the company stands to earn in the future. In other words, institutional investors are looking for companies that are stable enough to avoid surprises but that also stand to generate considerable capital in the future.

Why work this into your game plan? Because even if you don’t have millions of dollars to invest in a company, there may be hedge funds or venture capital firms out there that do. When these guys make an investment, it tends to be a big one that can actually move a company’s share price upward. Why not ride their coattails and enjoy a solid growth rate as they invest more money over time into proven winners?

That’s why it’s important to make sure that you see how a company stacks up against its closest competitors. If it’s an industry-leading business with a large market share, it’s likely to be a strong contender with solid fundamentals. If not, you may end up discovering competing companies that make sense to consider instead.

See Related : What is a Triple Bottom Line? Definition & Examples

At this point, hopefully, you’ve identified the best stock in the best sector based on your ideal investing style. Now it’s time to find out exactly why it deserves to become a part of your portfolio and for how long.

If a company has been experiencing impressive growth, then there’s bound to be a reason why.

• Is the company experiencing a major influx of business because it’s currently a leader in the hottest sector of the moment? Or is it a “good house in a bad neighborhood” that’s moving independently of the other stocks in its industry?
• How long has it been demonstrating growth?
• What appears to be the catalyst behind its movement? Does the stock owe its growth to strong management, recent world events, the approval of a new drug, the introduction of a hot new product, etc?

One mistake that far too many beginning investors make is assuming that short-term growth alone always indicates the potential for long-term profit. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. By figuring out exactly why a stock is moving, you’ll be far better positioned to decide how long to hold it before you sell.

A strong catalyst can cause the price of a stock to skyrocket overnight, even if it’s laid dormant for years. Even things like social media hype and rumors can cause a stock’s price to shoot up over the course of a given day. But woe to the investor that assumes these profits will last. Many are often left holding the bag when the price increase turns out to be part of a “ pump and dump .”

While many day traders can make a nice profit by capitalizing on these situations, such trades are best avoided altogether if you plan to hold a stock long-term. That’s why it’s so important to understand whether a stock is “in play” for the day or whether its growth can be attributed to more permanent factors that support the potential for a high return over time.

See Related : How to Become an Impact Investor [Step-By-Step Guide]

If you’re planning on investing a significant amount of capital in any stock, then a little research may be able to save you from a lot of heartache. Keep in mind that the focus of an investment thesis is to formulate a reasoned argument about why adding an asset to your portfolio is a good idea.

While all investments come with some level of risk, research can be an excellent risk mitigation strategy. There’s nothing worse than watching an investment fail due to an obvious factor you could have spotted with closer analysis. Don’t let it happen to you!

Fundamental analysis can help you ensure that your potential investments have the underlying traits that winning stocks are made of. While there’s a bit of a learning curve involved when you’re first starting out, here are some of the things you’ll want to focus on:

EPS stands for “earnings per share.” It’s a common financial indicator that basically tells you how much a company makes each time it sells a share of its stock. In this regard, a higher EPS is a good thing, but it’s important to look for solid EPS growth over time. Ideally, you’ll want to see consistent growth in a company’s EPS over the past three or more quarters.

Sales and Margins

Investing is all about putting your cash into successful companies, which is why sales and margins are key components to finding worthy investments. Sales indicate how much a business has made from (you guessed it) sales. Sales margin, also known as gross profit margin, is the amount of revenue a company actually gets to keep after you factor in overhead and other production costs. Ideally, a good investment will exhibit strong, consistent sales growth in recent years.

Return On Equity (ROE)

ROE is one of the more commonly used valuation metrics and is calculated by dividing the company’s net income/shareholders’ equity. ROE is basically a measure of how efficiently a company is using the capital it generates from equity fundraising to increase its own value. The higher the ROE, the more likely it is that a company operates with a focus on using its cash flow to increase its profits.

See Related : How to Do a Stakeholder Impact Analysis?

While these are just a few examples of various analysis methods to work into your investment thesis, they can go a long way toward locating solid companies worth investing in. Interested in learning more about technical and fundamental analysis? There are now plenty of great sites that can help you master the secrets of the training world.

In our opinion, Tradimo is one of the most underrated, as it provides tons of free classes for investors of all levels. Udemy also has some great classes that can help you learn how to beef up your investment thesis with as much quality information as possible.

But keep in mind that these are only suggestions. The most important part of any personal investment thesis is that it makes sense to you and can serve as a valuable tool to help you along your investing journey.

Related Resources

• Best Impact Investing Online Courses
• Best Green Apps for a More Sustainable Life
• Sustainable Investing vs Impact Investing: What’s the Difference?

Kyle Kroeger, esteemed Purdue University alum and accomplished finance professional, brings a decade of invaluable experience from diverse finance roles in both small and large firms. An astute investor himself, Kyle adeptly navigates the spheres of corporate and client-side finance, always guiding with a principal investor’s sharp acumen.

Hailing from a lineage of industrious Midwestern entrepreneurs and creatives, his business instincts are deeply ingrained. This background fuels his entrepreneurial spirit and underpins his commitment to responsible investment. As the Founder and Owner of The Impact Investor, Kyle fervently advocates for increased awareness of ethically invested funds, empowering individuals to make judicious investment decisions.

Striving to marry financial prudence with positive societal impact, Kyle imparts practical strategies for saving and investing, underlined by a robust ethos of conscientious capitalism. His ambition transcends personal gain, aiming instead to spark transformative global change through the power of responsible investment.

When not immersed in the world of finance, he’s continually captivated by the cultural richness of new cities, relishing the opportunity to learn from diverse societies. This passion for travel is eloquently documented on his site, ViaTravelers.com, where you can delve into his unique experiences via his author profile.

GlobalFoundries' Compounding Mistake Against Taiwan Semi Haunts Outlook

• GlobalFoundries' strategic pivot in 2018 to focus on essential chips over leading-edge technology has hindered its growth and competitive edge in the semiconductor industry.
• Despite improving margins by reducing R&D and Capex, GF faces headwinds from saturated markets like smartphones and displays, impacting inventory levels and growth prospects.
• GF's valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a projected downside of 12-14%, justifying a Neutral rating due to lack of growth catalysts.

Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

The semiconductor industry is one of the toughest competitive landscapes to weather through. Few companies weather through such storms, and the ones that do demonstrate durable utilization of their available resources to continuously compete at the leading edge.

Taiwan Semi ( TSM ) is one of the industry stalwarts that has continuously proven its advantage over its peers by competing at the leading edge of semiconductor technology, the leading edge being process nodes.

Peers like Intel ( INTC ) have lost out on billions of dollars failing to compete with Taiwan Semi, whereas others like GlobalFoundries ( NASDAQ: GFS ) decidedly bowed out of the innovation race to compete on “essential chips” that are made on 12 nm processes or above.

Part of GlobalFoundries’ strategic reasoning to bow out of the competition was to save on capital costs, as I will explain below, but what that has also done is to severely temper its growth outlook, which is also reflected in its stock price.

Exhibit A: GlobalFoundries stock trailing one year returns versus its peers and the index (Seeking Alpha)

After falling ~40% in 2024, I still do not have the conviction to believe GlobalFoundries should be bought yet, and my analysis points to a Neutral rating on the stock.

How GFS’s strategic decisions from 2018 slowed growth

GlobalFoundries, or just GF as they are sometimes called, went through fundamental changes in 2018 that saw some executive turnover as well as a strategic pivot in the company’s chip manufacturing business.

Under new management at the time, GF reallocated all their resources as well as capital towards manufacturing “essential chips” and moving away from competing with its peers on manufacturing chips on the leading edge. Semiconductor chips that are manufactured on 12 nanometer process nodes or above are termed as essential chips by the company.

According to the company, in 2018, “it would have cost GF $2-$4 billion to ramp up the 40-50,000 wafers/month capacity needed to have a chance of making a return on the node.” Per my calculations, that would result in allocating between 33-60% of the company’s revenues to fend off competition.

Over time, management worked towards securing financial performance and bolstering margins by driving down its R&D expenses and Capex, which now stand at a combined 20% of GF’s revenues, down from the 32% of revenues seen in 2018.

Exhibit B: GlobalFoundries investments as a percent of revenues are low as compared to its larger rival TSM (Company filings)

What the pare down in investments both in R&D and Capex did was allow the company to scale back its ambitions on manufacturing chips on the 7nm nodes in 2018 and move to its essential chip production, which management believed would be beneficial since most of GF’s customers used chips manufactured at GF’s foundries for essential use cases such as power management, monitor displays, wireless connection enablement, etc.

That forced some of its clients, such as AMD ( AMD ), its former stakeholder, to switch to rival TSMC . GF still has some major customers such as Qualcomm ( QCOM ), NXP Semiconductors ( NXP ), and Infineon ( OTCQX:IFNNY ) and still makes some essential chips for AMD, but with all the chip spending moving towards the leading edge use cases due to GenAI, budgets for GF's essential chips have gotten cut, and GF has seen major headwinds due to these changes.

Therefore, while GF has been able to repair its margin profile, the opportunity to compete for TSM’s market share that it gave up in 2018 is now coming back to haunt the company as most of the growth is hyper-focused on leading edge chips.

Exhibit C: GlobalFoundries revenues have failed to pick up even as margins look to be repaired. (Company filings)

In addition, one of GF’s largest end user markets, smartphones, is slowing as the market participants cycle through a highly saturated smartphone market. The arrival of AI smartphones might reverse its course, but in GF’s case, there is very little evidence of that.

Exhibit D: GF's Revenue By End Market (Investor Presentation, GlobalFoundries)

Management says the automobile end user market is now its fastest-growing segment, but that has done very little to move the needle on its growing stockpile of inventory levels.

GF’s inventory levels have been growing at a rapid click, a sign of sluggish forward growth and a looming threat to GF’s margins if management is unable to push out inventory to its sales channels.

Exhibit E: GlobalFoundries inventory levels have grown 5x since 2019 (Ycharts)

This is one of the strongest signs to me of how GF committed an error to switch markets and move to focus on slow-moving markets such as smartphones and displays that are not just cyclical but also saturated.

GF’s valuation

GF’s management expects revenues to decline by 6.8% y/y to $1.73 billion at the midpoint of its guidance. This represents a smaller contraction in revenues on a sequential basis after posting an -11.9% y/y contraction in their Q2 earnings report .

Factoring in consensus estimates for GF’s Q4 revenues to contract -2.7% in Q4, I estimate GF’s revenues would contract -9.1% in 2024 to $6.7 billion. Management is “seeing utilization come up further in 2025,” which indicates they expect some growth since current fab utilization levels are reported as to be “in the low to mid-70s,” per management .

Consensus estimates put the company on track to report EBITDA of $2.37 billion, down ~10% in 2024 while also expecting 2025 EBITDA to be $2.75 billion, representing a 15% increase in 2025 EBITDA. In contrast to GF, TSM’s EBITDA is expected to grow 21% to ~$59 billion in 2024 and accelerate to ~$75 billion in 2025, representing a ~26.5% increase in TSM’s 2025 EBITDA.

Currently GF is valued at 8.8x EBITDA or 7.6x 2025 EBITDA on an EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. This looks marginally expensive as compared to the 13.7x EBITDA or 10.8x 2025 EBITDA that TSM is valued at.

Exhibit F: GlobalFoundries valuation versus Taiwan Semiconductor (yCharts)

Based on this peer comparison, I estimate about 12-14% downside since I believe GF should be valued at 6.6x 2025 EBITDA.

Risks & Other Factors To Know

Two risks that investors should be mindful about.

First , it's the inventory levels that still show no real signs of topping out, as I highlighted in Exhibit D. Inventory levels have grown 5x since 2019 to ~$1.8 billion, which is worrisome. Management has cited improving fab utilization rates, but until those improvements trickle into inventory levels, I will still recommend my neutral rating.

The second risk is the company’s current shareholder structure. Per GF's most recent annual filing , Mubadala Investments is still one of the largest shareholders of GF, owning ~85% of the company’s shares outstanding. The company has in the past interfered with management by poaching away the previous CEO. This may always be a threat at any point moving forward, as Mubadala may seek to alter management strategies, which at times may be counterintuitive to its business strategies.

GlobalFoundries needs to demonstrate more improvements in growing their business amidst many uncertainties, chiefly being highly saturated end user markets. With strategic pivots that the company made years ago, GlobalFoundries now competes at process nodes that are +12 nm, while most budgets for chip production are being spent on the leading edge of semiconductor technology.

With the lack of catalysts on the horizon, I see no reason to be bullish and issue a Hold rating on the company.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About gfs stock.

More on GFS

Related stocks.

Trending Analysis

Trending news.

• Today's news
• Reviews and deals
• Climate change
• 2024 election
• Fall allergies
• Health news
• Mental health
• Sexual health
• Family health
• So mini ways
• Unapologetically
• Buying guides

Entertainment

• How to Watch
• My Portfolio
• Latest News
• Stock Market
• Biden Economy
• Stocks: Most Actives
• Stocks: Gainers
• Stocks: Losers
• Trending Tickers
• World Indices
• US Treasury Bonds Rates
• Top Mutual Funds
• Options: Highest Open Interest
• Options: Highest Implied Volatility
• Basic Materials
• Communication Services
• Consumer Cyclical
• Consumer Defensive
• Financial Services
• Industrials
• Real Estate
• Stock Comparison
• Advanced Chart
• Currency Converter
• Credit Cards
• Balance Transfer Cards
• Cash-back Cards
• Rewards Cards
• Travel Cards
• Credit Card Offers
• Best Free Checking
• Student Loans
• Personal Loans
• Car insurance
• Mortgage Refinancing
• Mortgage Calculator
• Morning Brief
• Market Domination
• Market Domination Overtime
• Asking for a Trend
• Opening Bid
• Stocks in Translation
• Lead This Way
• Good Buy or Goodbye?
• Financial Freestyle
• Capitol Gains
• Living Not So Fabulously
• Decoding Retirement
• Fantasy football
• Pro Pick 'Em
• College Pick 'Em
• Fantasy baseball
• Fantasy hockey
• Fantasy basketball
• Download the app
• Daily fantasy
• Scores and schedules
• GameChannel
• World Baseball Classic
• Premier League
• CONCACAF League
• Champions League
• Motorsports
• Horse racing
• Newsletters

New on Yahoo

• Privacy Dashboard

Yahoo Finance

Hayden capital’s thesis on its investment in applovin (app).

Hayden Capital, an investment management firm, released its second-quarter 2024 investment letter. A copy of the letter can be  downloaded here . Driven by the core positions, the portfolio rose in the past few months. The firm is currently seeing signs of market stabilization following the erratic macroeconomic environment of the past few years. In the second quarter, the portfolio generated a 7.0% return compared to a 4.3% return for the S&P 500 and a 2.9% return for the MSCI World Index. The firm’s assets are invested in Asia at approximately 57%, in North America at approximately 41%, and the remainder in cash. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2024.

Hayden Capital highlighted stocks like AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP ), in the second quarter 2024 investor letter. AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) develops a software-based platform for advertisers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their content. The one-month return of AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) was 16.90%, and its shares lost 106.12% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On September 6, 2024, AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) stock closed at $167.77 per share with a market capitalization of $29.24 billion.

Hayden Capital stated the following regarding AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:

"AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP): I have mentioned our Applovin investment a few times in prior letters, but realize I’ve never discussed it in full depth. Recently there have been quite a few developments, so I thought now is a good time to dedicate some time and lay out our thoughts going forward. Applovin is an advertising network for mobile apps (in particular, casual mobile games). Essentially, they are a market-maker for those looking to buy and sell ads – helping apps acquire users and monetize themselves, in an extremely competitive industry. One might think this is a niche business, but the company facilitates over $10 billion dollars of volume annually for its mobile gaming clients, and is expected to make $4.4BN in revenue, $2.5BN in EBITDA, and $1.8BN in Free Cash Flow this year. They are the third largest mobile ad network after Google and Meta, are the largest mediation platform, and has over 1 billion daily active users…” ( Click here to read the full text )

A close-up of a mobile device, showing an advertiser reaching out to a consumer via a software-based platform.

AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) is not on our list of 31 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds . As per our database, 54 hedge fund portfolios held AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) at the end of the second quarter which was 51 in the previous quarter. In the second quarter, AppLovin Corporation's (NASDAQ:APP) revenue increased 44% year over year to $1.08 billion. While we acknowledge the potential of AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is as promising as NVIDIA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock .

In another article , we discussed AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) and shared the list of hidden AI stocks to buy . In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2024  page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

READ NEXT:  Michael Burry Is Selling These Stocks  and  A New Dawn Is Coming to US Stocks .

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey .

Virtual Tour

Experience University of Idaho with a virtual tour. Explore now

• Discover a Career
• Find a Major
• Experience U of I Life

More Resources

• Admitted Students
• International Students

Take Action

• Find Financial Aid
• View Deadlines
• Find Your Rep

Helping to ensure U of I is a safe and engaging place for students to learn and be successful. Read about Title IX.

Get Involved

• Clubs & Volunteer Opportunities
• Recreation and Wellbeing
• Student Government
• Student Sustainability Cooperative
• Academic Assistance
• Safety & Security
• Career Services
• Health & Wellness Services
• Register for Classes
• Dates & Deadlines
• Financial Aid
• Sustainable Solutions
• U of I Library

• Upcoming Events

Review the events calendar.

Stay Connected

• Vandal Family Newsletter
• Here We Have Idaho Magazine
• Living on Campus
• Campus Safety
• About Moscow

The largest Vandal Family reunion of the year. Check dates.

Benefits and Services

• Vandal Voyagers Program
• Vandal License Plate
• Submit Class Notes
• Make a Gift
• View Events
• Alumni Chapters
• University Magazine
• Alumni Newsletter

SlateConnect

U of I's web-based retention and advising tool provides an efficient way to guide and support students on their road to graduation. Login to SlateConnect.

Common Tools

• Administrative Procedures Manual (APM)
• Class Schedule
• OIT Tech Support
• Academic Dates & Deadlines
• U of I Retirees Association
• Faculty Senate
• Staff Council

College of Graduate Studies

Physical Address: Morrill Hall Room 104

Mailing Address: College of Graduate Studies University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3017 Moscow, ID 83844-3017

Phone: 208-885-2647

Email: [email protected]

Thesis and Dissertation Resources

You will find all you need to know about starting and completing your thesis or dissertation right here using ETD (Electronic submission of Dissertations and Theses).

• Create your ETD account
• General ETD Help from Proquest
• Theses and Dissertations template  (Word)
• Example of a thesis
• Note: COGS at this time is unable to provide any troubleshooting support or tutorials on LaTeX. Please use only if you are knowledgeable and familiar with the program.
• Writing Assistance Services
• Format Review Services
• Survey of Earned Doctorates  (for Ph.D. students only)
• University Repository Agreement Form  (PDF)
• Dates and Deadlines
• Sign up with ORCID (take 5 minutes to establish your academic identity)
• U of I Theses and Dissertations , 2013-present
• Data and Digital Services Workshops
• Open Access, Scholarly Communication, and Copyright LibGuide
• Quick Guide - Committee Electronic Review/Authorization - Student View pdf
• Quick Guide - Committee Electronic Review/Authorization - Faculty View pdf
• ETD Checklist jpg
• T/D Format/Component Checklist pdf
• Handbook - reference pdf
• Handbook - example docx

Get the Reddit app

The leading community for cryptocurrency news, discussion, and analysis.

The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis

This Thesis is no longer usable as guidance for any kind of price action as the tokenomics of the protocol have changed

Hello, all you Redditors - this post is probably a bit different from everyone’s usual read since I usually don’t see anyone do these kinds of posts anymore. I wanted to show all of you why I am hyper bullish on Rocket Pool, the potential it has to make everyone reading this a lot of money, as well as clear up some possible questions a few of you guys might have about specific things about the protocol (like how the ETH-rETH ratio is determined).

Disclaimer: I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, so take this article with a grain of salt.

If you haven’t already please read the medium articles that have been coming out from the Rocket Pool team first before reading my post (it might make a lot more sense): https://medium.com/rocket-pool/rocket-pool-staking-protocol-part-1-8be4859e5fbd

Supply and Demand Dynamics (commission for node operators/fees for rETH holders)

To start we have the node operators and the stakers. When node operators first fund their minipool they’ll need 16 ETH and a minimum of 10% RPL insurance (if you deposit 16 ETH you’ll need 1.6 ETH worth of RPL) for them to be accepted as a node operator. If they do not have the RPL insurance they will not be able to participate in the Rocket Pool network. Once they are accepted they will determine a minimum commission that they will earn for the life of their validator (in other words until their validator exits).

Ex. a node operator starts with 32 ETH (16 from the node operator and 16 from the rETH stakers) at a 10% commission rate. This validator generates 1 ETH and decides to exit.

Node operator receives:

16 ETH (deposit) + .5 ETH (staking rewards) + 0.05 ETH (commission) = 16.55 ETH (Total)

rETH holders receive:

16 ETH (deposit) +.5 (staking rewards) - 0.05 ETH (commission) = 16.45 ETH (Total)

The supply and demand dynamics of the commission rate are determined by how much ETH there is in the deposit pool. This graph shows the curve of the commission rate.

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/mkbg05o7xz

If the deposit pool supply is low it’ll only distribute ETH to node operators that will accept a commission at a rate equal to or below the then-current rate set by the protocol (5% is currently the lowest), and visa versa If the deposit pool supply is near maximum then more node operators will be given a higher commission rate (20% is currently the maximum) to meet the demand.

Note: Node operators determine their minimum commission to accept (if your commission rate is low you’ll likely stake before everyone else in the queue).

The likely question that rETH holders will have is, “What are the fees that I’m paying?” rETH holders will only see (and pay) the average of all the commissions as their fee.

Ex. There are 5 minipools currently live running at 15%,12%,10%,8%, and 14% commission. rETH holders will see the average of all those minipools, 11.8%.

This example + the graph shows that the commission rate will lean in the direction of 10%, so if you are making any guesses right now on what the fees for rETH holders will be. It’ll likely be around 10%.

The rETH token needs to be understood a little bit better for people.

Simply, rETH = (ETH deposit) + (staking rewards)

There is no additional rETH that is airdropped to your wallet. When you swap directly with Rocket Pool you will see an ETH-rETH exchange rate.

Ex. if the exchange rate is 1ETH:1 rETH then if you deposit 16 ETH you get 16 rETH.

Ex. if the exchange rate is 1 ETH: 0.95 rETH then if you deposit 16 ETH you’ll get 15.2 rETH

Your rETH will just accrue the value of your staking rewards. Therefore, rETH > ETH.

Here is the math that will determine the rETH-ETH ratio as one big example (credit to eracpp):

Alice creates a minipool with 16 ETH:

- Supply-R: 0 rETH (rETH issued/minted)

- Pool-D: 0 ETH (Deposit Pool)

- Pool-S: 0 ETH (Staked)

- Pool-R: 0 ETH (Rewards)

- Pool-T: 0 ETH (Total: Pool-D + Pool-R)

- Staked-N: 16 ETH (+16)(Node Operator)

- Staked-R: 0 nETH (Reward for Operator)

- Ratio: 1 ETH / rETH (Pool-T / Supply-R)

Bob stakes 16 ETH (receives 16 rETH):

- Supply-R: 16 rETH (+16)

- Pool-D: 16 ETH (+16)

- Pool-S: 0 ETH

- Pool-R: 0 ETH

- Pool-T: 16 ETH (+16)

- Staked-N: 16 ETH (+16)

- Staked-R: 0 nETH

- Ratio: 1 ETH / rETH

Alice's minipool is activated:

- Supply-R: 16 rETH

- Pool-D: 0 ETH (-16)

- Pool-S: 16 ETH (+16)

- Pool-T: 16 ETH

- Staked-N: 16 ETH

Alice's minipool earns 0.010 ETH with 20% commission:

- Supply-R: 16.00000 rETH

- Pool-D: 0.00000 ETH

- Pool-S: 16.00000 ETH

- Pool-R: 0.00400 ETH (+0.004)

- Pool-T: 16.00400 ETH (+0.004)

- Staked-N: 16.00000 ETH

- Staked-R: 0.00600 nETH (+0.006)

- Ratio: 1.00025 (+0.00025)

The new ratio is determined by (Pool-T / Supply-R)

16.00400 / 16.00000 = 1.00025 ETH / 1 rETH

This ratio is important because it keeps track of rewards for everyone based on when you swapped for ETH for rETH. If someone were to exchange ETH for rETH they would have to trade at the new ratio. If the ratio was fixed then people would be able to steal other people’s rewards

The simple answer if you don’t want to look at the math is that the Oracle nodes calculate the exchange rate many times throughout the day, so you don’t have to worry about it.

The rETH Investment

Rocket Pool is the most decentralized and trustless staking protocol that will soon be available. Rocket Pool provides you with a token that allows users to retain liquidity as well as gives the ability to yield farm (if desired).

We all know there are many different DEFI yield farming strategies and I believe that there will be many strategies for rETH. Since rETH should never be less in value against ETH and it’s coming from the Rocket Pool protocol, which follows the Ethereum ethos, I think that it’ll be accepted as collateral for many of the lending dapps on Ethereum. When this does happen rETH holders will be able to collateralize their rETH for ETH to deposit back on Rocket Pool. This will create a positive feedback loop where the first rETH holders to implement this strategy will yield probably around 20-40% on their ETH instead of the average 5-8% just from staking rewards. This could also indirectly increase the RPL price and commission rates for the Rocket Pool network since more ETH in the deposit pool incentivizes more node operators to stake on Rocket Pool.

Of course, there will be many more advanced yield farming strategies. This is just an example of a simple one that could be profitable for rETH holders as well as the protocol that accepts rETH as collateral.

The RPL Investment

With an in-depth understanding of RPL, I believe that RPL will perform much better than many of the tokens on Ethereum. If you think that Rocket Pool will be able to capture even a minimal amount of the staking market, you should consider adding RPL to your portfolio.

Reason 1: With the tokenomics update and the ETH/RPL price model that a few of us developed. I’ve identified that there is a price ceiling where anyone buying below this specific price can almost guarantee a profit (this price continually goes higher as more ETH is staked on the network). As long as there is a continuous amount of ETH staked on the Rocket Pool network RPL will continue to go up in value against ETH.

Reason 2: I believe that there will still be people interested in staking even when we go into a bear market. When there is a demand for rETH, there will be a demand for node operators which can have a very good effect on the ETH/RPL price (ie. continue to raise the price floor, resulting in a higher minimum price).

Reason 3: Since Rocket Pool is the most decentralized and permissionless staking protocol there will be many interested parties since there are no minimums to deposits (as little as 0.01 ETH, with no upper limits).

RPL Tokenomics

RPL has a few things that can affect its price, a few being insurance, governance, and speculation (I’m not gonna cover “Oh, but it could go to this price, but maybe not.” it’s a dumb conversation that goes nowhere and I ain’t talking about it).

I believe that the main driving factor of RPL is going to be insurance. Since all node operators will need at least 10% of their ETH stake in RPL to be able to participate on the network, this can lock up sizable amounts of RPL per minipool. This will also bridge RPL to Ethereum’s price, therefore ETH/RPL prices will replace USD/RPL prices. With the help of u/boodle_noodle , we’ve created a model that tracks the “Absolute Minimum” price of what RPL should be at with all the ETH currently staking.

https://imgur.com/a/EfMQKFR

This model shows the average insurance among all minipool operators compared to the amount of ETH staked on the Rocket Pool network. This model is flawed in a way because it doesn’t factor in the inflation of RPL, but this can easily be fixed by creating a new model that fits the current token supply.

Something to note: For node operators, as long as your RPL collateral is above 10% during the biweekly checkpoints, you’ll receive staking rewards based on your collateral amount. If you fall below the 10% you’ll have enough time (about a week or so) to add more RPL to meet the threshold to still receive RPL inflation rewards.

Governance is a little bit speculative, so I guess just look at other protocols and say, “This could be right.” If you have any questions or want to know how the governance system works please read the 2nd article from the dev team. https://medium.com/rocket-pool/rocket-pool-staking-protocol-part-2-e0d346911fe1

My RPL Price Prediction (personal speculation)

There is about a little bit over 3.4 million ETH currently staked. I believe that over the next few years there will be a massive amount of ETH staked that’ll bring the APY down from its current ~8% to around 4-5% (equating to around 10-15 Million ETH staked). Of the entire market, I think that Rocket Pool will take AT LEAST 20% of that pie (or 2-3 Million ETH staked on Rocket Pool).

For argument’s sake let’s plug the conservative numbers into the model we created. We need some assumptions:

Amount of ETH staked on RP = 2.5 Million

Average RPL Insurance Collateralization = 25% (this is a conservative number)

Comes out to approximately an ETH/RPL price of 0.035 (This is the minimum value that RPL can be, it’ll likely be a lot higher than this number). Currently, RPL is priced at 0.0063, so this is easily more than a 5.55x against ETH. Easy investment? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Solo-staking vs. RP Node Operator

I am not a financial advisor, please take this with a grain of salt.

Earlier in this post, I talked about the potential for the RPL token because of its necessity to decentralize the security layer for Ethereum combined with its built-in tokenomics. Based on all my bullishness for RPL I think most of you guys can tell I value the RPL token very highly.

Looking from a profitability standpoint:

Solostakers will get an APY on ETH that is currently around the average 8% APY on their 32 ETH.

RP Node Operators will be able to get both ETH rewards at the average 8% APY + COMMISSION. They will also receive an APY on their RPL holdings.

Of course, all the benefits of using the RP network doesn’t come free.

Some things that I’ve noticed on what “could” happen:

Smart contract risk

audits are worth every penny, currently sigma prime and consensys are auditing the platform, so we should be getting news within the next 3-4 weeks

The project comes out of audits and the reports show that they need another few months to fix the problems

not the worst situation, but I don’t think this is likely to happen since we’ve had 2 betas on Medalla and Goerli, and there will be another beta happening soon with full functionality of the new tokenomics (try it out if you are interested :D).

Hacks/Deposit pool gets drained

The deposit pool is designed to hold funds that will directly go to the next minipool operator (ie. ETH shouldn’t be sitting in the deposit pool for very long). Meaning that there is only a limited amount of funds a hacker could steal.

A malicious Oracle Node DAO

This must be addressed: These nodes will be able to upgradable contracts that are built into Rocket Pool, BUT there are 3 contracts that cannot be upgraded or changed (ie. rETH token contract, nETH token contract, and the contract that stores ETH by the network) in short they can’t steal users funds without the entire user base knowing.

At launch, there will be 15-20 Oracle Nodes, which means that 51% of them would need to act maliciously in order to attack the protocol.

My Conclusion:

All in all, I have many reasons to believe that as staking increases in popularity Rocket Pool will become a very big and successful project. Just some extra things to close this mini-paper on:

If you are pricing RPL by its US dollar value, then you are doing it wrong. This token should not be priced in USD, since it is coupled to the value of ETH. Because of this coupling, it passes the attribute of moneyness from ETH to RPL.

If you are looking for a “get rich quick” scheme by buying RPL then I think you should look elsewhere. If you’d like to “set it and forget it,” RPL could be a good option for that kind of strategy.

If you do not mind the risks and believe that Rocket Pool will be massively adopted, then you should consider holding RPL or maybe utilize the protocol by swapping ETH for rETH when the project goes live.

Rocket Pool doesn’t have any direct competitors since many of the other “staking as a service” companies are either centralized, or they are custodial.

If you do not care if you are using a centralized or a custodial solution then that’s fine. There are many options out there for you, but if you are looking for a truly decentralized and non-custodial solution then Rocket Pool will probably be the answer for you.

None of this is investment advice, I’m just putting some knowledge out here to give people a little bit more of an understanding of what is to come since the project had been rebuilt from scratch and has gone through 3 different tokenomic iterations.

Some updates on what’s been happening recently:

Sigma Prime audits started on February 14th, continuing into its 5th week

Consensys audits started on March 7th, 1st week has finished.

Next beta coming soon. If you are planning on running a validator please come and test it out on this beta. The team has made the entire set-up process ridiculously easy. We even have a few guides for people that would like to run a validator on a Raspberry Pi (credit to jcrtp)

Note: This is not a replacement for the 3rd article from the series that the RP Team is writing. More concrete information based on tokenomics will be announced by the team in the coming weeks. Again, not a financial advisor or a dev, just a guy that likes economics, and loves the RP community.

The Rocket Pool community is here to help!

(In dedication to Brad and 0xcc)

P.s. you still owe me 20 RPL Brad…

Edit 9/19/2021 : This post has become an NFT and has been fractionalized. If you'd like to own a piece of this Thesis buy a token or a fraction of a token on Uniswap.RPIT Token address: 0x21d722c340839751d23a4fb5b6d5e593f8cc82eb

By continuing, you agree to our User Agreement and acknowledge that you understand the Privacy Policy .

Enter the 6-digit code from your authenticator app

You’ve set up two-factor authentication for this account.

Enter a 6-digit backup code

Create your username and password.

Reddit is anonymous, so your username is what you’ll go by here. Choose wisely—because once you get a name, you can’t change it.

Reset your password

Enter your email address or username and we’ll send you a link to reset your password

Check your inbox

An email with a link to reset your password was sent to the email address associated with your account

Choose a Reddit account to continue

Premier Liga

Total Market Value

• Number of teams: 16 teams
• Players: 441
• Foreigners: 172 Players    39.0%
• ø-Market value: €1.95m
• ø-Age: 25.8
• Most valuable player: Eduard Spertsyan    €20.00m

On the competition startpage, the participating teams of one season (selectable in the drop-down menu) are to begin with listed based on the total market value. In addition to news, a matchday overview and the list of goalscorers, the table offers further information.

Clubs - Premier Liga 24/25

• Last matchday
• Current matchday
• Next matchday

Top goalscorers

#	Player		Club
1	Second Striker Centre-Forward Attacking Midfield Right Winger # Club   +/- Pts 1   7 17 17 2   7 6 15 3   7 5 15 4   7 7 14 5   7 11 13 6   7 5 13 7   7 0 11 8   7 -1 10 9     7 -3 8 10   7 -4 6 10     7 -4 6 12   7 -7 6 13   7 -9 6 14     7 -6 5 15   7 -6 5 16   7 -11 4 Top rumours Who do you want to win? In this match you stick with... 204 IMAGES What is RPL Report, and why is it required? RPL Thesis ch5 Deller rpl thesis RPL Thesis ch4 RPL Thesis ch2 Private Equity Investment Thesis Example In Powerpoint And Google VIDEO AMC Stock Exposing Real Estate Investment Scams Influenced by Realty TV China's economy in trouble? UBL Al Ameen Islamic cash fund details How to get profit UBL funds ⚡ KC NETWORK ⚡ The world’s most powerful Crypto App ⚡ Join Now 'Investors have a much broader appetite for stocks,' says strategist, plus sectors to watch in 2021 COMMENTS The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis : r/ethfinance Average RPL Insurance Collateralization = 25% (this is a conservative number) Comes out to approximately an ETH/RPL price of 0.035 (This is the minimum value that RPL can be, it'll likely be a lot higher than this number). Currently, RPL is priced at 0.0063, so this is easily more than a 5.55x against ETH. Investment Thesis A collection of analysis on Rocket Pool and RPL's value. ... Rocket Pool Investment Thesis 2.0: 17-Nov-2021: LogrisTheBard: LogrisTheBard: 13-Mar-2021: boodle: The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis, Round 3: 13-Mar-2021: PSY_TWEAK: Rocket Pool Investment Thesis, Speculative Edition: 12-Mar-2021: Xer0: Rocketpool Investment Thesis: Round 3 : r/ethfinance By this metric, RPL would be valued similar to UNI's current valuation if 2.5M ETH were staked and the RPL/ETH ratio was 0.035. Below is a more comprehensive plot of the same figure as above, just with a variety of values for #ETH staked. Figure 2: Same as in Figure 1, but for a range of values for #ETH staked. The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis : r/rocketpool Average RPL Insurance Collateralization = 25% (this is a conservative number) Comes out to approximately an ETH/RPL price of 0.035 (This is the minimum value that RPL can be, it'll likely be a lot higher than this number). Currently, RPL is priced at 0.0063, so this is easily more than a 5.55x against ETH. Easy investment? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Rocket Lab: Really Exciting, But Priced For Perfection After acquiring more RPL, the company then lost even more money on every launch (about $400,000 more a launch). ... Investment Thesis. I think the programs that Rocket Lab is working on are very ... Rocket Pool Tool A speculative tool to help estimate Rocket Pool node operator rewards. This is not financial advice and you should follow up with your own research. Stake Now. Node Requirement: 16 ETH + minimum collateral of 1.6 ETH worth of RPL (10%) Max collateral is 24 ETH worth of RPL per node (150%) More RPL collateral results in higher RPL staking rewards. Bankless: Decentralized Ethereum 2.0 Staking with Rocket Pool Rocket Pool is live on mainnet! Slowly rolling out its staking pools, Rocket Pool is opening up its decentralized ETH staking product to the world. Core team members Darren Langley and Dave Rugendyke join to talk about the past, present, and future of the protocol. Rocket Pool allows ETH holders to stake without needing to run a full node, which requires hardware, maintenance, and 32 ETH. How to Write an Investment Thesis Why home improvement is "one of the most obvious long-term trends out there." Travel and return-to-work are two trends worth watching. Then, using language-learning app Duolingo (DUOL 2.42%) as an ... Investment Thesis: An Argument in Support of Investing Decisions An investment thesis is a written document that recommends a new investment, based on research and analysis of its potential for profit. Individual investors can use this technique to investigate ... Writing a credible investment thesis A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value. This point needs underscoring. Justifying a deal as being "strategic" ex post facto is, in most cases, an invitation to inferior returns. Given how frequently we have heard weak "strategic" justifications after a deal has closed, it's ... What Is an Investment Thesis? What Is an Investment Thesis? Investing is a process. One important task an investor should perform before putting money into an opportunity is to develop an investment thesis. An investment ... An Investment Thesis: The Key To Making More Money Long Term Here are key characteristics of a good investment thesis: Clear and Concise: The thesis should be easily understandable and to the point. Supported by Research: Ground your thesis in thorough research, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and an understanding of relevant economic and market trends. The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis, SPECULATIVE edition Remove UNI and the average ratio is 1.22142. If you expect just 500k ETH to be staking using RocketPool then the protocol will have around 0.9B TVL (not counting the RPL validators need to lock in as collateral). If you then apply the average ratio in Defi to RPL, we have a $60 price per coin (0.9B TVL/18m supply * 1.2). How to Create an Investment Thesis [Step-By-Step Guide] Step 1: Start With the Essentials. First things first. Before you get into doing the research that goes into an investment thesis or stock pitch, make sure you take the time to write out the basics. At the top of the page, include things like: The name of the company and its ticker symbol. Today's date. Shift4 Payments: Strong Quarter Has My Interest (NYSE:FOUR) Investment Thesis. As mentioned briefly above, ... MMMT Wealth began in 2023 when Oliver started writing online mainly on X and Substack about investment strategies and stocks. His main aim is to ... Investment Thesis Thesis Statement - This concise statement outlines the core investment idea, the rationale behind the investment, and the expected outcomes. Specify the market problem or opportunity the technology addresses, emphasizing the pain points and how the innovation uniquely solves them. Highlight the potential transformative impact on industries or ... GlobalFoundries' Compounding Mistake Against Taiwan Semi Haunts Outlook Investment Thesis. The semiconductor industry is one of the toughest competitive landscapes to weather through. Few companies weather through such storms, and the ones that do demonstrate durable ... Hayden Capital's Thesis on its Investment in Applovin (APP) Hayden Capital, an investment management firm, released its second-quarter 2024 investment letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Driven by the core positions, the portfolio rose in ... 2 nodes with 10% or 1 with 125% collateral? : r/rocketpool It really comes down to whether you think RPL the asset will outperform ETH the asset. Many people think RPL will outperform ETH in the short to medium term, and I believe that is the conclusion of the investment thesis as well, so that would lean toward 1 minipool with 125% collateral, but at the end of the day no one can predict the future. RPL All about the Russian Premier League, Cup and Super Cup. Calendars, results, statistics, video and photo matches. Compositions, applications, transfers of players of the Premier League clubs. News, online broadcasts. Thesis and Dissertations-College of Graduate Studies-University of Idaho Thesis and Dissertation Resources. You will find all you need to know about starting and completing your thesis or dissertation right here using ETD (Electronic submission of Dissertations and Theses). Note: COGS at this time is unable to provide any troubleshooting support or tutorials on LaTeX. Please use only if you are knowledgeable and ... The Rocket Pool Investment Thesis : r/CryptoCurrency Average RPL Insurance Collateralization = 25% (this is a conservative number) Comes out to approximately an ETH/RPL price of 0.035 (This is the minimum value that RPL can be, it'll likely be a lot higher than this number). Currently, RPL is priced at 0.0063, so this is easily more than a 5.55x against ETH. Premier Liga 24/25 Premier Liga. Russia League level: First Tier Reigning champion: Zenit St. Petersburg Record-holding champions: Spartak Moscow 10 time (s) UEFA coefficient: 29. Pos. 18.299 Points. € 854.00 m. Total Market Value. 2023-24 Russian Premier League 2024-25 →. All statistics correct as of 25 May 2024. The 2023-24 Russian Premier League (known as the Mir Russian Premier League, also written as Mir Russian Premier Liga for sponsorship reasons) was the 32nd season of the premier football competition in Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the 22nd under the current ... assignment essay homework phd report review speech thesis